FacebookTwitterGoogle+RedditEmail

Some Dimensions of Hurricane Florence

The estimates which follow are based on rough quantitative data about Hurricane Florence, which were reported on 12 September 2018 by several news outlets.

1) Maximum sustained winds (morning, 12 September 2018):

215 km/hr = 134 mph.

2) Diameter (width) of the eye:

~40 km = ~25 miles.

3) Diameter (width) of the storm:

~660 km = ~410 miles.

4a) Area of the storm:

~238,000 km^2 = ~91,820 square miles.

4b) Area of storm calculated (by MG,Jr.) based on reported diameter:

342,000 km^2 = 132,000 square miles.

4c) Diameter of storm calculated (by MG,Jr.) based on reported area: 550.4 km = 342 miles

Other dimensional features, reported on 12 September 2018, are:

5) Largest ocean waves (which occur in the northeast quadrant of the storm): 83 feet = 25 meters.

6) Peak wind speed dropped (by afternoon 12 September 2018) to: 125 mph = 201 km/hr.

7) Size of the (inner high-speed) windfield expanded to a diameter

(the width, with eye in center) of:

140 miles = 226 km.

8) The hurricane is expected to bring a storm surge (onto the coast) upwards of 6 feet (1.8 m) in parts of the coastline, including up to 13 feet (4 m) from Cape Fear north to Cape Lookout.

9) The expected rainfall is up to 40 inches (1 m) in isolated areas in the Carolinas and anywhere between 6 to 12 inches (15 to 30 cm) elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic region.

10) Expected cost of storm damages: $170 billion; which would make Hurricane Florence the most expensive hurricane to hit the continental U.S.

Using an average height of 16 km (10 miles) for hurricanes:

11) The volume of the (inner, high speed) windfield is estimated to be: ~642,000 km^3 = ~154,000 cubic miles.

Using an average diameter (width) of 600 km = ~372 miles, for Hurricane Florence:

12) The area of the storm is:

~282,700 km^2 = ~109,100 square miles.

13) The volume of the entire storm is estimated to be:

~4,524,000 cubic km = ~1,084,000 cubic miles.

Now, a more speculative calculation, of RAINFALL (by MG, Jr.):

Assuming:

a) storm area = 282,700 square kilometers = ~109,100 square miles,

b) storm height = 16 km = ~10 miles,

c) storm volume = 4,524,000 cubic km = ~1,084,000 cubic miles,

and

d) 96.5% of standard air density (which is 1.204 kg/m^3 at sea level)

in the storm volume, to account for the “low pressure” of the system, which is primarily at the center, and rising toward the edge; so an average air density of 1.162 kg/m^3 for the storm,

e) 90% relative humidity at 70 degrees Fahrenheit, everywhere (an averaging), then, the water content in the storm is: 100 grains of water (0.0143 lb) per lb of dry air.

Using liquid water density at 1 gram/cc = 1 kg/1000cc = 1000kg/m^3, the amount of water (humidity) per VOLUME (of atmospheric space in the storm) is:

0.036633 lb of water per cubic meter =

0.0166166 kg of water per cubic meter =

16,616,600 kg of water per cubic kilometer (of air space in the storm).

Thus, the total mass of liquid water in the storm (of volume 4,524,000 cubic km) is: 75,173,498,400,000 kg of liquid water (75.173… trillion kg = 75.173… thousand-billion kilograms).

The volume of liquid water ALONE (for the entire storm) is: 75.1734984 km^3 (75.173… cubic kilometers).

For the area of this storm (282,700 km^2), the depth of rainfall

(if all the water rains out over the entire storm area) is: 0.266 meters = 26.6 centimeters = 10.5 inches.

Rain over real terrain will collect into flood streams of greater depth (for lower lying areas).

Also, the rainfall near the center of the hurricane will be much higher (a 40 inch = 1 meter expectation was reported);

The rainfall closer to the edge of the storm, and everywhere late in its lifetime, will be lighter (a 6-to12 inch = 15-to-30 centimeter expectation was reported).

So, my estimate of 10-11 inches of rainfall, averaged for the entire storm area (282,700 square kilometers = ~109,100 square miles), seems reasonable.

Source (1 to 4):

https://globalnews.ca/news/4443132/how-big-is-hurricane-florence/

Source (5 to 10):

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2018/09/12/hurricane-florence-storm-lifetime-generating-83-feet-high-waves-as-it-barrels-towards-carolina-coast.html

These estimates were prompted by questions from Lynn Chadderdon.

 

More articles by:

Manuel Garcia, Jr, once a physicist, is now a lazy househusband who writes out his analyses of physical or societal problems or interactions. He can be reached at mangogarcia@att.net

Weekend Edition
September 21, 2018
Friday - Sunday
Paul Street
Laquan McDonald is Being Tried for His Own Racist Murder
Brad Evans
What Does It Mean to Celebrate International Peace Day?
Alexandra Isfahani-Hammond
Hurricane Florence and 9.7 Million Pigs
Nick Pemberton
With or Without Kavanaugh, The United States Is Anti-Choice
Andrew Levine
Israel’s Anti-Semitism Smear Campaign
Jim Kavanagh
“Taxpayer Money” Threatens Medicare-for-All (And Every Other Social Program)
Jonathan Cook
Palestine: The Testbed for Trump’s Plan to Tear up the Rules-Based International Order
Jeffrey St. Clair
Roaming Charges: the Chickenhawks Have Finally Come Back Home to Roost!
David Rosen
As the Capitalist World Turns: From Empire to Imperialism to Globalization?
Jonah Raskin
Green Capitalism Rears Its Head at Global Climate Action Summit
James Munson
On Climate, the Centrists are the Deplorables
Robert Hunziker
Is Paris 2015 Already Underwater?
Arshad Khan
Will Their Ever be Justice for Rohingya Muslims?
Jill Richardson
Why Women Don’t Report Sexual Assault
Dave Clennon
A Victory for Historical Accuracy and the Peace Movement: Not One Emmy for Ken Burns and “The Vietnam War”
W. T. Whitney
US Harasses Cuba Amid Mysterious Circumstances
Nathan Kalman-Lamb
Things That Make Sports Fans Uncomfortable
George Capaccio
Iran: “Snapping Back” Sanctions and the Threat of War
Kenneth Surin
Brexit is Coming, But Which Will It Be?
Louis Proyect
Moore’s “Fahrenheit 11/9”: Entertaining Film, Crappy Politics
Ramzy Baroud
Why Israel Demolishes: Khan Al-Ahmar as Representation of Greater Genocide
Ben Dangl
The Zapatistas’ Dignified Rage: Revolutionary Theories and Anticapitalist Dreams of Subcommandante Marcos
Ron Jacobs
Faith, Madness, or Death
Bill Glahn
Crime Comes Knocking
Terry Heaton
Pat Robertson’s Hurricane “Miracle”
Dave Lindorff
In Montgomery County PA, It’s Often a Jury of White People
Louis Yako
From Citizens to Customers: the Corporate Customer Service Culture in America 
William Boardman
The Shame of Dianne Feinstein, the Courage of Christine Blasey Ford 
Ernie Niemi
Logging and Climate Change: Oregon is Appalachia and Timber is Our Coal
Jessicah Pierre
Nike Says “Believe in Something,” But Can It Sacrifice Something, Too?
Paul Fitzgerald - Elizabeth Gould
Weaponized Dreams? The Curious Case of Robert Moss
Olivia Alperstein
An Environmental 9/11: the EPA’s Gutting of Methane Regulations
Ted Rall
Why Christine Ford vs. Brett Kavanaugh is a Train Wreck You Can’t Look Away From
Lauren Regan
The Day the Valves Turned: Defending the Pipeline Protesters
Ralph Nader
Questions, Questions Where are the Answers?
Binoy Kampmark
Deplatforming Germaine Greer
Raouf Halaby
It Should Not Be A He Said She Said Verdict
Robert Koehler
The Accusation That Wouldn’t Go Away
Jim Hightower
Amazon is Making Workers Tweet About How Great It is to Work There
Robby Sherwin
Rabbi, Rabbi, Where For Art Thou Rabbi?
Vern Loomis
Has Something Evil This Way Come?
Steve Baggarly
Disarm Trident Walk Ends in Georgia
Graham Peebles
Priorities of the Time: Peace
Michael Doliner
The Department of Demonization
David Yearsley
Bollocks to Brexit: the Plumber Sings
FacebookTwitterGoogle+RedditEmail