FacebookTwitterRedditEmail

On the ‘Name Recognition’ Shibboleth in the Democratic Primary Data Discussion

Now that the 2016 Democratic Primary cycle is (mostly) over — will it ever be entirely? — it has become fashionable once again to forward name recognition as a reasonably large factor in what distinguishes one or more candidates from the others in early polling of the field at large and amongst specific demographic sub-groupings. As The Intercept’s Ryan Grim has noted in an article on Bernie Sanders having double the support among African American likely Democratic Primary voters as Kamala Harris, the name recognition argument was “casually dismissed when made by Sanders supporters” in 2016.

“Casually” puts it somewhat mildly. Rudely and perfunctorily would do better. Meanwhile, the same crowd is enthusiastically chalking up almost all of Joe Biden and Sanders’ poll strength over their preferred candidates to the name recognition shibboleth.

Put most simply, the ‘name recognition’ argument suggests that even large gaps in polling support might best be explained by how well candidates are known by voters at this stage in the race rather than by the likelihood that those differences may hold when voting begins a year or so from now.

The graph at the top of this article, as well as the one that follows this paragraph, indicate that while name recognition might explain as much as 50% to 70% of data variances between candidates’ support at this stage, it is far from a slam dunk that this is the only factor at play, if it is even the most dominant one. Using a wide variety of potential candidates, including ones very unlikely to run (Oprah Winfrey, Michael Avenatti, Michelle Obama, and Hillary Clinton) and ones who have recently announced they will not be running (Michael Bloomberg and Sherrod Brown), I have plotted name recognition (y-axis) against the best support the person has received in a 2018 or 2019 poll (x-axis). Name recognition, in these ways of modelling the data, may have some explanatory power, but is far from what data minded people would hope for in terms of a nice cluster of entry points along a linear or evenly curved line moving from bottom left to upper right in a graph. For those as I am, not formally trained in statistics, the R² number in the bottom left is a statistical measure of how much of the variance among data is explained by a regression analysis, provided the entries are accurate. If the R² was at or near zero, the factors in play would be said to explain none of the variances, while the closer the number reaches to 1, the closer to a perfect explanation of the variations the interaction among plotted features has reached. Narrowing our data down to currently announced or reasonably likely potential candidates, including a curved power trendline rather than a linear one, and using a three week average of polling data rather than best poll, we can move the R² from about a 50% variance explanation range to around 70%.

In both cases, candidates or potential candidates below the red dotted line are doing better than the model would expect them to do if ‘name recognition’ was a perfect fit for how candidates are performing right now, or performing in their best poll. Candidates above the red dotted line are performing from a bit worse (closer to the line) to far worse than expected, given their name recognition, the further they are above it. In the top chart Michael Bloomberg, whose name recognition according to Gallup polling is near 90% but whose best poll was around 8%, is well above the line and a good example of why being well known is not enough to guarantee good polling.

By the same token, this analysis has given me a reason to reconsider my skepticism about Beto O’Rourke’s potential to do quite well. The highest measurement of name recognition I can find for him is 61% in the most recent Morning Consult data to measure his favorability. But his best poll was a remarkable 21% as measured by Change Research just before Christmas. While he has now fallen to 5% or so in the three-week average, that still puts him higher than would be expected given how well-known he is by voters at this stage. If, as expected, he officially joins the race later this week and has a good kick-off bounce, he could well rejoin the small cadre of candidates regularly polling in the double digits.

But there are clearly other factors beyond name recognition at play: 1) proximity to Barack Obama (see Michelle Obama and Joe Biden’s high support as well as the impact of favorable comments by Obama about Harris and Beto) 2) real or perceived ability to beat Trump, much of which can be measured by polling (“Bernie would have won,” Joe Biden’s favorability ratings and consistent double digit leads against Trump, and polls showing Democrats most want a candidate who can beat Trump, for examples) 3) proximity to the movement Left led by Bernie Sanders, including the ability to attract small donors rather than relying solely on large, corporate contributions 4) which candidate is being hyped by CNN and FiveThirtyEight as the flavor of the month. Beto fit the bill for the latter in December and saw a huge bump in support accordingly. Elizabeth Warren was the “it-candidate” briefly in the first two weeks of January after announcing early and leading in the first DailyKos straw poll. That place was then taken up by Harris from mid-January to mid-February, but her bubble appears to have popped a bit over the last several weeks with a real or relative decline in each of the last eight state or national polls since Sanders announced his candidacy on February 19.

In keeping with my analysis of the data, I have added a name recognition adjustment to my updating weekly candidate rankings, to be found in the Twitter thread here. By January 2016, Bernie Sanders had reached around 85% name recognition (about the level at which Elizabeth Warren is now). For candidates in the top eight spots, the rankings will generously assume that they can perform at least that well, and their support has been adjusted upward on a linear basis to a 85% level. Candidates in the 9th and 10th spot are assumed to be able to reach at least 75% if they can make the debates and run a decent campaign, and candidates ranked 11 or below are adjusted up to 65% name recognition if they have not yet reached that level.

As for the weekly rankings, Biden continues to lead, but that lead has shrunk a fair bit as Sanders jumped 5% on improved poll nationally. Adding the name recognition adjustment for candidates vaulted O’Rourke into 4th spot, displacing Warren to fifth. I have also added Stacey Abrams (impressively already at 6th spot), Marianne Williamson, and Andrew Yang while Bloomberg and Brown have been removed.

More articles by:

Doug Johnson Hatlem writes on polling, elections data, and politics. For questions, comments, or to inquire about syndicating this weekly column for the 2020 cycle in your outlet, he can be contacted on Twitter @djjohnso (DMs open) or at djjohnso@yahoo.com (subject line #10at10 Election Column).

bernie-the-sandernistas-cover-344x550
Weekend Edition
March 27, 2020
Friday - Sunday
Rob Urie
Bailouts for the Rich, the Virus for the Rest of Us
Louis Proyect
Life and Death in the Epicenter
Paul Street
“I Will Not Kill My Mother for Your Stock Portfolio”
Jeffrey St. Clair
Roaming Charges: The Scum Also Rises
Pam Martens - Russ Martens
Stimulus Bill Allows Federal Reserve to Conduct Meetings in Secret; Gives Fed $454 Billion Slush Fund for Wall Street Bailouts
Jefferson Morley
Could the Death of the National Security State be a Silver Lining of COVID-19?
Ruth Hopkins
A Message For America from Brazil’s First Indigenous Congresswoman
Kathleen Wallace
The End of the Parasite Paradigm
Anthony DiMaggio
Misinformation and the Coronavirus: On the Dangers of Depoliticization and Social Media
Andrew Levine
Neither Biden Nor Trump: Imagine Cuomo
David Rosen
God’s Vengeance: the Christian Right and the Coronavirus
David Schultz
The Covid-19 Bailout: Another Failed Opportunity at Structural Change
Evaggelos Vallianatos
In the Grip of Disease
Edward Leer
Somebody Else’s World: An Interview with Kelly Reichardt
Robert Fisk
What Trump is Doing in the Middle East While You are Distracted by COVID-19
Daniel Warner
COVID-19: Health or Wealth?
Thomas Klikauer – Norman Simms
Corona in Germany: Hording and Authoritarianism
Ramzy Baroud
BJP and Israel: Hindu Nationalism is Ravaging India’s Democracy
Richard Moser
Russia-gate: the Dead But Undead
Ron Jacobs
Politics, Pandemics and Trumpism
Chris Gilbert
Letter From Catalonia: Alarming Measures
Richard Eskow
Seven Rules for the Boeing Bailout
Jonathan Carp
Coronavirus and the Collapse of Our Imaginations
Andrew Bacevich
The Coronavirus and the Real Threats to American Safety and Freedom
Peter Cohen
COVID-19, the Exponential Function and Human the Survival
César Chelala - Alberto Luis Zuppi
The Pope is Wrong on Argentina
James Preston Allen
Alexander Cockburn Meets Charles Bukowski at a Sushi Bar in San Pedro
Jérôme Duval
The Only Oxygen Cylinder Factory in Europe is Shut down and Macron Refuses to Nationalize It
Neve Gordon
Gaza Has Been Under Siege for Years. Covid-19 Could Be Catastrophic
Alvaro Huerta
To Survive the Coronavirus, Americans Should Learn From Mexicans
Prabir Purkayastha
Why the Coronavirus Pandemic Poses Fundamental Challenges to All Societies
Raouf Halaby
Fireside Chatterer Andrew Cuomo for President
Thomas Drake
The Sobering Realities of the American Dystopia
Negin Owliaei
Wash Your Hands…If You Have Water
Felice Pace
A New Threat to California’s Rivers:  Will the Rush to Develop Our Newest Water Source Destroy More Streams?
Ray Brescia
What 9/11 Can Teach Us About Responding to COVID-19
ADRIAN KUZMINSKI
The Covid-19 Opportunity
John Kendall Hawkins
An Age of Intoxication: Pick Your Poison
Kollibri terre Sonnenblume
The Propaganda Virus: Is Anyone Immune?
Nicky Reid
Fear and Loathing in Coronaville Volume 1: Dispatches From a Terrified Heartland
Nolan Higdon – Mickey Huff
Don’t Just Blame Trump for the COVID-19 Crisis: the U.S. Has Been Becoming a Failed State for Some Time
Susan Block
Coronavirus Spring
David Yearsley
Lutz Alone
CounterPunch News Service
Letter from Truthdig’s Editor-in-Chief Robert Scheer to the Publisher Zuade Kaufman
CounterPunch News Service
Statement From Striking Truthdig Workers
FacebookTwitterRedditEmail