FacebookTwitterGoogle+RedditEmail

Eating My Bernie Math: How DeBlasio Rescued Clinton and the Banksters from Bernie Kong

Lost in appropriate outrage over Hillary Clinton and New York City Mayor Bill DeBlasio’s “Colored People (or Concerned Politician) Time” skit were the underlying tensions giving rise to the racialized joke. DeBlasio was Clinton’s campaign manager for her successful Senate run in 2000 but waited until mid-Autumn last year to endorse her presidential run. DeBlasio took even longer to begin campaigning on Clinton’s behalf against Bernie Sanders, recently portrayed  on the front page of Tuesday’s New York Post, and elsewhere, as King Kong threatening damsel-in-distress Clinton and the New York skyline.

Bernie KongMy predictive powers for the Democratic primaries have been a mixed-bag, but never have I been so wrong at such an important time as in New York, and especially New York City. My analysis suggested that polling firms basically had New York City right and were severely discounting Sanders’ strength Upstate.

The polls somewhat discounted Sanders strength Upstate and did not foresee Clinton’s huge win in NYC. The average for the seven polling firms that published their regional splits was a 55-38 advantage for Clinton in the City with six or seven percent undecided.

The average of the four pollsters my scorecard expected to be the best (Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Siena, Baruch) was a 51-39 Clinton advantage with 10% undecided. I expected undecideds to go for Sanders, as in the past, about 3-2 and hoped late momentum might even get him from 55-45 to 53-47 in NYC. He lost the five boroughs by an average of 63-37. At least as importantly, Clinton claimed a draw with 25-44-year-olds, a demographic that DeBlasio won by 50% in 2013 and that my model expected to go for Sanders about 2:1. Even as DeBlasio’s political fortunes have waned and waxed, young people and people of color, key demographics in New York City, have kept the putatively progressive mayor afloatabove 50% popularity.

By way of comparison, Sanders lost in Chicago by less than 10% and the state of Illinois overall by just one delegate. In Illinois, Sanders won the under 45 set by 40%. In New York, he won it by just 10% even though the racialized demographics of Illinois and New York’s Democratic electorate are nearly identical.

NY Exit Poll Age Splits via CNN

IL Exit Poll Age Splits via CNN

In Chicago, Clinton was supported quietly by Rahm Emanuel, whose popularity is at the bottom of the tank. Sanders enjoyed very public and enthusiastic support from Emanuel’s surprisingly strong Latino challenger last Fall, Chuy Garcia. While there are other differences that matter between Chicago and New York, this seems to me by far the most important.

Absent double digit wins in Pennsylvania and Indiana the next two Tuesdays, outcomes neither polling or my Bernie-biased modeling predict, there is absolutely no path for Sanders to win the nomination. There will be a lot of praise for an insurgent campaign that even Bernie originally thought to be nothing more than an issues or protest candidacy and an equal or greater share of blame to go around.

Some of us have counted Democratic politicians such as Elizabeth Warren and DeBlasio as allies in the struggle against Wall Street monstrosity. Their neutrality or active campaigning for the banksters’ favorite candidate bar-none, however, means a significant share of the disappointment and frustration will reasonably be sent their way. Given the outcome however, it’s unlikely to cause Warren and DeBlasio much concern as politicians.

A final note of gratitude for all of you who have read my columns here regularly. I apologize for the false hopes I have created. It’s time to eat my Bernie math and move on.

More articles by:

Doug Johnson Hatlem is best known for his work as a street pastor and advocate with Toronto’s homeless population from 2005-2013. He is now a film producer and free-lance writer based in Chicago.

Weekend Edition
January 18, 2019
Friday - Sunday
Melvin Goodman
Star Wars Revisited: One More Nightmare From Trump
John Davis
“Weather Terrorism:” a National Emergency
Jeffrey St. Clair
Roaming Charges: Sometimes an Establishment Hack is Just What You Need
Louisa Willcox
Sky Bears, Earth Bears: Finding and Losing True North
Robert Fisk
Bernie Sanders, Israel and the Middle East
Robert Fantina
Pompeo, the U.S. and Iran
David Rosen
The Biden Band-Aid: Will Democrats Contain the Insurgency?
Nick Pemberton
Human Trafficking Should Be Illegal
Steve Early - Suzanne Gordon
Did Donald Get The Memo? Trump’s VA Secretary Denounces ‘Veteran as Victim’ Stereotyping
Andrew Levine
The Tulsi Gabbard Factor
John W. Whitehead
The Danger Within: Border Patrol is Turning America into a Constitution-Free Zone
Dana E. Abizaid
Kafka’s Grave: a Pilgrimage in Prague
Rebecca Lee
Punishment Through Humiliation: Justice For Sexual Assault Survivors
Dahr Jamail
A Planet in Crisis: The Heat’s On Us
John Feffer
Trump Punts on Syria: The Forever War is Far From Over
Dave Lindorff
Shut Down the War Machine!
Glenn Sacks
LA Teachers’ Strike: Student Voices of the Los Angeles Education Revolt  
Mark Ashwill
The Metamorphosis of International Students Into Honorary US Nationalists: a View from Viet Nam
Ramzy Baroud
The Moral Travesty of Israel Seeking Arab, Iranian Money for its Alleged Nakba
Ron Jacobs
Allen Ginsberg Takes a Trip
Jake Johnston
Haiti by the Numbers
Binoy Kampmark
No-Confidence Survivor: Theresa May and Brexit
Victor Grossman
Red Flowers for Rosa and Karl
Cesar Chelala
President Donald Trump’s “Magical Realism”
Christopher Brauchli
An Education in Fraud
Paul Bentley
The Death Penalty for Canada’s Foreign Policy?
David Swanson
Top 10 Reasons Not to Love NATO
Louis Proyect
Breaking the Left’s Gay Taboo
Kani Xulam
A Saudi Teen and Freedom’s Shining Moment
Ralph Nader
Bar Barr or Regret this Dictatorial Attorney General
Jessicah Pierre
A Dream Deferred: MLK’s Dream of Economic Justice is Far From Reality
Edward J. Martin
Glossip v. Gross, the Eighth Amendment and the Torture Court of the United States
Chuck Collins
Shutdown Expands the Ranks of the “Underwater Nation”
Paul Edwards
War Whores
Alycee Lane
Trump’s Federal Government Shutdown and Unpaid Dishwashers
Martha Rosenberg
New Questions About Ritual Slaughter as Belgium Bans the Practice
Wim Laven
The Annual Whitewashing of Martin Luther King Jr.
Nicky Reid
Panarchy as Full Spectrum Intersectionality
Jill Richardson
Hollywood’s Fat Shaming is Getting Old
Nyla Ali Khan
A Woman’s Wide Sphere of Influence Within Folklore and Social Practices
Richard Klin
Dial Israel: Amos Oz, 1939-2018
Graham Peebles
A Global Battle of Values and Ideals
David Rovics
Of Triggers and Bullets
Elliot Sperber
Eddie Spaghetti’s Alphabet
January 17, 2019
Stan Cox
That Green Growth at the Heart of the Green New Deal? It’s Malignant
FacebookTwitterGoogle+RedditEmail