Some politicians give opportunism a bad name. A case in point is Robert F. Kennedy Jr., nephew of JFK and son of Robert Kennedy, two of the most beloved figures – and martyrs – in the annals of the Democratic party. When RFK Jr., then a lifelong Democrat. launched his quixotic bid for the White House last year, he was roundly denounced by members of his own party and even by former colleagues in the environmental justice movement that he’d helped lead for two decades back in the 1980s.
Their main beef was that Kennedy had no compelling reason to run against a sitting president that had pursued a relatively progressive agenda domestically, including restrictions on fracking and a commitment to “green” energy, including EVs, to say nothing of strong support for expanded healthcare coverage to the poor and to seniors. Most of Kennedy’s extended family, long-time Democrats themselves as well as staunch Biden supporters, were aghast at Kennedy’s decision and begged him to reconsider. Some even disowned him publicly.
But Kennedy refused to back down and within the space of a few months, his campaign began gathering steam, earning support from media influencers like Chris Cuomo, who’d been ousted from CNN but later launched his own network News Nation, where Kennedy regularly appeared for lengthy interviews. Kennedy also began attracting growing support from voters dissatisfied with Biden and Trump. Some early polls had Kennedy at 16-20% of the vote in a hypothetical three-way race, with surprisingly high levels of support from youth, Blacks and Hispanics.
The left from the beginning was suspicious of Kennedy – for good reason. His steadfast attacks on vaccines, his calls for “sealing the border,” and his pledge to end the “forever wars,” including US support for Ukraine against the Russian invasion, sounded disturbingly like the positions adopted by Trump – but in a sly pseudo-progressive guise. Kennedy, a devout Catholic, also seemed hostile to abortion, placing him squarely on the right-wing of the culture war. As he began gaining ballot access in a number of states, including key swing states like Arizona and Nevada, fears grew that he might well play the role of “spoiler” – as Ralph Nader allegedly did in 2000 against Al Gore – peeling away support from Biden, and handing the presidency back to Trump.
While Kennedy disavowed any such intent, there were other ominous signs. More than half of his early funding – about $20 million – through his Super PAC American Values, came from a top Trump mega donor, Timothy Mellon, a scion of the Carnegie Mellon banking family, who is also atop donor to numerous conservative organizations, including MAGA Inc, the premiere pro-Trump super PAC. Another top donor was financier Omeed Malik, who leads an “anti-woke” investment firm that helped launch former Fox News host Tucker Carlson’s latest media venture. Predictably, Carlson has also given considerable time and space to RFK, Jr. to promote his campaign, while mainstream news outlets, with a few exceptions, have shunned him.
RFK Jr. actually has deeper ties to Trump than were first reported. Trump, while president, it seems, took a shine to Kennedy, and considered naming him to head a special presidential commission to study the dangers of vaccines. The idea fell through but the two have remained in touch. Kennedy also claims that the Trump campaign reached out to him earlier this year to discuss whether he might agree to serve as the former president’s VP running mate. When Kennedy revealed the offer, Trump officials denied that their candidate had made it, though they didn’t deny ongoing contacts with Kennedy himself.
The spoiler story around Kennedy has gotten a bit more complicated in recent months as polls seem to suggest that his presence in the race might actually pull more votes from Trump than from Biden – and now Harris. Meanwhile, his overall share of the national voting pool has declined sharply to about 5% or less, with most of his one-time double digit support drifting toward Harris. For example, in the latest CBS News poll, Harris leads Trump by just 2 points if RFK Jr’s in the race – 49%-47% – which is within the statistical margin of error (2.1%). But take Kennedy out of the equation and Harris beats Trump decisively by 3 points, 51%-48%. Other national polls show a similar result. Apparently, Kennedy isn’t helping Trump – he’s helping Harris. That means Kennedy is still a potential spoiler – on the margins – but now it’s for Trump not Harris.
Polling in the make-or-break swing states – where all three candidates are investing the bulk of their resources – illustrates the trend more clearly. Take Pennsylvania, arguably the 2024 race’s biggest single prize. In the last two head-to-head polls – one by Emerson College, the other by conservative-leaning Rasmussen – Trump leads Harris by 1%. But add RFK Jr. to the mix and Harris gained 2 points in the Emerson College poll (putting her in the lead) and 1 point in the Rasmussen poll (for a tie). Again, it’s a marginal swing in absolute terms – but it’s one that might be just enough to keep Trump from regaining the White House – if it holds.
But will it? RFK Jr. seems well aware of his dwindling influence on the 2024 race and is now angling to leverage what’s left of it for his own gain. In just the past month, since Harris replaced Biden, Kennedy has been trying to negotiate a quid pro quo: in exchange for a cabinet position, he’s offering to make a public endorsement. But he doesn’t seem to care which campaign he endorses. He first started up with the Trump campaign, in mid-July, but Trump’s not biting – not yet. To increase his leverage – or so he thinks – Kennedy’s also just approached the Harris campaign, making some version of the same deal. So far, he’s been rebuffed, news reports suggest.
What would Kennedy get in exchange for an endorsement? In a Trump regime, he might well be named Secretary of HHS – a plum spot given the enormous share of public spending – and employment – in the U.S. health sector. Kennedy’s not only hostile to mandatory vaccinations but is a staunch critic of Big Pharma’s monopoly influence over the drug research and approval process, which discourages competition, raises health care costs and consistently places consumers at risk. RFK Jr. and Trump generally see eye-to-eye on this issue. But Trump also wants to gut the civil service in many federal departments, including HHS, which he believes favors the Democrats and entrenched regulatory structures. Kennedy – with his health consumer zeal – could be the perfect hatchet man for Trump and the GOP.
In fact, it’s quite likely that Kennedy is simply using his latest feint toward the Harris campaign as a way of amping up pressure on the Trump campaign to make a deal with him. Harris has little reason to welcome Kennedy into her ranks – even tactically, and certainly not in exchange for a top position. Most Democrats would be revulsed at that prospect – but you never know. The race is a statistical dead heat and could well remain that way down to the bitter end. In which case, any last-minute source of an additional margin in the voting – especially with youth and independents, where Kennedy still leaves a small but notable mark – would likely be considered. As both campaigns get increasingly anxious about the outcome in November, Kennedy may be in a position to engage in full-scale double-dealing, challenging each campaign to deal with him – or else.
Summing up: RFK Jr. may not be the kind of spoiler that his Democratic critics first envisioned. But he may be something far worse: a man with no enduring allegiance to an ideology, a party or even a platform who is willing to sell his campaign and his support to the highest bidder – in exchange for his own personal and political advancement. That’s not a third party option – it’s a potential fifth column. And once embraced, where it might lead politically is anyone’s guess. As always, Kennedy offers many possible roads – but invariably, all of those roads lead straight back to him.
