Image Source: Ecrusized – CC0
In one of its final moves in office, the Biden administration is trying to secure U.S. influence over Rojava, the Kurdish-led region of northeastern Syria.
Now that Rojava is being attacked by Turkish-backed militias and faces a possible Turkish invasion, the Biden administration is reinforcing U.S. military positions in Rojava, making it more likely for the Kurds to maintain control over northeastern Syria. Despite the possibility that President-elect Donald Trump may bow to Turkish pressure, as he did when he facilitated a Turkish attack on Rojava during his presidency, officials in the Biden administration are trying to safeguard Rojava and prepare the Kurds to play a major role in Syria’s future.
“We need to stand with the Kurds, and President Biden intends to do that,” National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said last month.
For the past decade, the United States has partnered with the Syrian Kurds. In the war against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the U.S. military aided the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which did the bulk of the fighting on the ground in Syria. U.S. military officials repeatedly praised the Kurds for their courage, calling them the most effective fighters against ISIS.
“We’ve worked alongside the SDF for some time,” Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin acknowledged last month. “We have a good relationship with them and I think it will remain.”
At the same time that the SDF fought ISIS, the Kurds carved out an autonomous region in Rojava, where they organized the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (DAANES). Although the United States has not formally recognized the region’s autonomy, the U.S. military has kept soldiers in the area, helping to solidify its independence.
Officials in Washington have defended the U.S. military presence in Rojava by saying that they are helping the Kurds prevent a resurgence of the Islamic State.
“Our entire mission in Syria is to ensure the continuing defeat of ISIS,” Pentagon Spokesperson Sabrina Singh said at a January 8 press briefing.
While the United States has supported the Kurds, it has maintained reservations about the partnership. Not only has the U.S.-Kurdish partnership created frictions with Turkey, a NATO ally that portrays the SDF as terrorists, but U.S. officials have not supported the Kurds’ social revolution in Rojava, which has created a more inclusive and democratic politics in northeastern Syria.
During the past year, in fact, the Biden administration began moving away from its Kurdish partners. Administration officials discouraged Rojava from holding municipal elections that would likely legitimize the SDF and its associated Democratic Union Party. For many years, a goal of the United States has been to empower the Kurdish National Council (ENKS), a group of opposition parties supported by Turkey.
Some U.S. officials even began reviewing options for withdrawing U.S. forces from Rojava, though such a move would leave the Kurds vulnerable. Prior to the ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad this past December, U.S. diplomats floated a deal in which Assad would cut his ties to Iran in exchange for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria.
Now that opposition forces have overthrown the Syrian government, however, the Biden administration is refocusing its attention on its Kurdish partners, hoping to use them to influence Syria’s political development.
One of the administration’s moves has been to supervise talks between the SDF and ENKS, a maneuver that may appease Turkey. Kurdish leaders have presented the talks as an effort to establish a unified Kurdish front in negotiations with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the U.S.-designated terrorist organization that now controls Damascus.
At the same time, the Biden administration has moved to limit Turkish attacks on Rojava. Although the Turkish-controlled Syrian National Army (SNA) has been attacking Rojava since late November, when HTS began its offensive against Assad, the United States has provided the SDF with support, even reinforcing positions near the Turkish border.
While aiding the SDF, the Biden administration has sought additional assistance from France, which also stations troops in Rojava.
Earlier this month, Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, who praised the Kurds for their role in the defeat of the Islamic State and insisted that they must play a role in the future of Syria.
“The Kurds of Syria shall have their role to play,” Barrot said. “We owe it to them.”
Still, several factors may undermine the Biden administration’s efforts, particularly as they concern Turkey.
A critical question is whether Turkey will invade Rojava. Since Assad’s ouster, Turkish officials have grown increasingly hostile toward the Kurds, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan repeatedly threatening Kurdish militias with eradication.
Another uncertainty concerns the intentions of the incoming Trump administration. Although Secretary of State Blinken anticipates that Trump will try to prevent more conflict in Syria, the president-elect has previously bowed to Turkish pressure.
In recent statements, Trump has praised Erdogan and signaled that he has no interest in interfering with the Turkish president’s plans for Syria.
Erdogan “sent his people in there through different forms and different names,” Trump said on January 7, referring to Erdogan’s maneuvers that led to Assad’s ouster. “And they went in and they took over, and that’s the way it is.”
Whatever Trump’s intentions may be, he may find it difficult to ignore Syria. If he abandons the Kurds, then he will be leaving Syria more firmly under the control of HTS, the very kind of organization that he insists is a threat.
In fact, many U.S. officials have indicated that there is great danger in Syria being controlled by HTS, which has its roots in al-Qaeda. It is a time “of both real promise but also peril for Syria and for its neighbors,” Blinken stated last month.
Knowing that the Kurds have been reliable partners, the Biden administration has seen an opportunity to use them to its advantage. Rather than cowering before Turkish threats, as Trump has done in the past, Biden has moved to deter Turkish attacks while enabling the Kurds to maintain control over much of northeastern Syria.
What the Biden administration is doing, in short, is making a play for Rojava, believing that it may provide the United States with significant leverage over the future development of Syria.
This first appeared on FPIF.
