“The only thing that matters when I’m talking about Iran — they can’t have a nuclear weapon.”

—Donald Trump

Apparently, the Trump administration has decided that the nuclear-weapon justification for the Iran war is the one that is most appealing to the public, especially their Republican base. But it’s important to remember that the administration has floated at least a dozen different reasons for starting a war with Iran.

The Atlantic magazine has documented ten of these claims: (1) to stop an imminent threat to US troops, (2) to prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon, (3) to prevent Iran from using terrorist proxies to destabilize the Middle East, (4) to liberate the Iranian people, (5) to stop Iran from interfering in US elections, (6) to achieve world peace, (7) to make the world safe for US children and grandchildren, (8) to prevent the Iranian regime from assassinating Donald Trump, (9) to bring about the second coming of Jesus Christ, and (10) because Israel was about to attack Iran.

The administration has added more: (11) to protect the American people from Iran’s long-range missiles, and (12) to destroy Iran’s navy. Because Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to the attacks, one can add (13) to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Given that at the beginning of the war, nuclear weapons were only one of dozen things that supposedly mattered, there is no reason to accept that it was the only or even the primary reason for the war. And, of course, it is worth noting that there is zero evidence that Iran has a nuclear weapon.

Nonetheless, the other problem for the administration is that it titled a press release in June 2025 “Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Have Been Obliterated — and Suggestions Otherwise are Fake News.” So last year the administration claimed that Iran’s nuclear program had been set back by years; this year, Trump stated that Iran was two weeks away from having a nuclear weapon. Of course, both of these things cannot be true. But it is possible that both of them are false.

Trump has spoken about freeing the Iranian people, and he specifically called for the release of eight Iranian women sentenced to death in the country. But the administration has also failed to officially take responsibility for the bombing of an Iranian girls’ school. Despite strong evidence that it was a US missile, Trump continues to say that it was Iran or some other country. Trump threatened to end Iranian civilization which would have constituted a war crime and genocide. (The threat itself may be a war crime.) These contradictory statements are unlikely from someone who truly cares about the people of Iran.

North Korea is a repressive dictatorship with nuclear weapons, missiles that may be able to reach the United States, a Trump administration designation as a sponsor of terrorism, and a history of antagonism to the United States and its neighboring countries. Yet, during his first administration, Trump reportedly exchanged what he calls “love letters” with the leader of North Korea, Kim Jong Un. In one letter, Trump wrote, “Only you and I, working together, can resolve the issues between our two counties and end nearly 70 years of hostility, bringing an era of prosperity to the Korean Peninsula that will exceed all our greatest expectations.” Trump is clearly aware that there are options other than war for dealing with dangerous regimes. With Iran, he chose war.

It is possible that Trump began the war with Iran because he assumed that it would proceed as quickly and easily as the US intervention in Venezuela did. In this scenario, the US would kill the Iranian leaders and then take control of Iran’s oil. As early as 1980, Trump called for a war with Iran and the capture of their oil. He repeated the call to attack Iran and seize their oil in 1987. This war may be the result of a longstanding aim of Trump.

Trump probably was conciliatory to Kim Jong Un precisely because Kim has nuclear weapons. By that logic, the war could give Iran a stronger incentive to obtain a nuclear weapon so that it can receive treatment like North Korea. But, in the meantime, Trump has given Iran a weapon that is arguably more powerful: the Strait of Hormuz.

This first appeared on CEPR.