FacebookTwitterGoogle+RedditEmail

Who’s to Blame If the US-North Korea Summit Isn’t Held?

Photograph Source edwardhblake | CC BY 2.0

Virtually everyone in the US faults North Korea for threatening to cancel the Trump-Kim summit scheduled for June 12 in Singapore. No one, including the liberal media, bothers to address North Korea’s conditions for a successful summit or the reasons for its warning about a cancellation. Let’s review the matter with some objectivity.

First, we should keep in mind that from the outset many specialists, myself included, identified interpretations of “denuclearization” as a likely source of contention. The Americans should have known from long experience that North Korea is not going to give up its principal bargaining chip and strategic deterrent in advance of receiving incentives. After all, Kim Jong-un probably believes that North Korea’s advances in strategic weapons are precisely what got Trump to accept an invitation to a summit meeting.

Second, the incentives the North Koreans have always demanded are security assurances and an end to “hostile” US policies. They want to know the US will not attack their country, will not seek regime change, and will, with China and South Korea, sign a peace treaty guaranteeing the DPRK’s security.

Third, the North Koreans want a road map to normalization of relations with the US, which will mean acceptance of the Pyongyang regime’s legitimacy and the start of economic ties. But they have made very clear that security comes first. Kim Kye-gwan, a senior DPRK foreign ministry official, said today (May 16, 2018) that his country was not interested in “unilateral nuclear abandonment” in exchange for “economic compensation.”

Very importantly, for all these matters to come to fruition, Kim Jong-un has said that the summit should be the start of a process, suggesting that a one-time event is not going to dispel decades of mistrust, mutual accusations, and name-calling. He reportedly told the South Koreans at their summit following the Winter Olympics, “If we meet often and build trust with the US, and if an end to the [Korean] war and nonaggression are promised, why would we live in difficulty with nuclear weapons?”

What has happened since the inter-Korean summit and the lead-up to the US-DPRK summit? On the positive side, Washington has acknowledged North Korea as a negotiating partner, Trump has treated Kim with respect and even exaggerated politeness, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has had two apparently upbeat meetings with Kim at which private US investment was held out as a reward for North Korea’s denuclearization. In turn, North Korea has stopped propaganda attacks on the US, has invited observers to witness destruction of its nuclear weapon test site, and has seemed (to judge from visitor and press accounts) eager to forge a new relationship with the US.

But there have also been ominous signs of trouble, starting with ambiguous messages from the US side. National security adviser John Bolton, predictably, has laid down a hard line, suggesting that complete, irreversible, and verifiable denuclearization—CVID, the same condition of the Bush and Obama administrations—would be demanded of the DPRK before any concession would be made. In fact, he said that denuclearization would have to cover all facilities, equipment, and materials—in short, everything having to do with a nuclear-weapon program. Trump himself insisted that “maximum pressure” would remain in place until an agreement was reached. We now know that “pressure” means not only sanctions but also military exercises directed at the North Korea threat.

The first warning of possible cancellation of the Trump-Kim summit came in response to the US-South Korea exercise called Max Thunder, a two-week drill involving B-52 bombers and F-22 Raptor fighter jets. North Korean media mainly criticized South Korea’s participation, which it said violated the Panmunjom Declaration between Kim Jong-un and South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in on building a peace regime. In cancelling upcoming high-level talks with Seoul scheduled for May 16, the official Korea Central News Agency also warned that the US “will have to think twice” about the summit with Kim and said Pyongyang will “closely watch” US behavior.

Very quickly, however, North Korea’s warning became more serious, apparently in response to US reports indicating that complete denuclearization was the key to progress at the summit. Perhaps the North Korean elite thought denuclearization was negotiable, especially since Trump is desperate for a “win” that would supposedly put him in line for a Nobel Peace Prize. Or perhaps the military hard-liners around Kim persuaded him that Trump could not be trusted to budge from the American determination to eliminate North Korea’s entire nuclear arsenal.

So there is plenty of blame to go around if the Trump-Kim summit never happens. But one thing is clear: the barrage of criticism leveled exclusively at the North Koreans is unwarranted, and reminiscent of Cold War propaganda. Their views are being dismissed by one and all as typical of their trickery and deceit, when in fact they are well known. Wishful thinking is no substitute for a careful engagement strategy. Next time, the US side should better inform itself of the North Korean perspective and priorities, and listen when an adversary says that trust building requires a long-term process.

More articles by:

Mel Gurtov is Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Portland State University, Editor-in-Chief of Asian Perspective, an international affairs quarterly and blogs at In the Human Interest.

August 15, 2018
Jason Hirthler
Russiagate and the Men with Glass Eyes
Paul Street
Omarosa’s Book Tour vs. Forty More Murdered Yemeni Children
Charles Pierson
Is Bankruptcy in Your Future?
George Ochenski
The Absolute Futility of ‘Global Dominance’ in the 21st Century
Gary Olson
Are We Governed by Secondary Psychopaths
Fred Guerin
On News, Fake News and Donald Trump
Arshad Khan
A Rip Van Winkle President Sleeps as Proof of Man’s Hand in Climate Change Multiplies and Disasters Strike
P. Sainath
The Unsung Heroism of Hausabai
Georgina Downs
Landmark Glyphosate Cancer Ruling Sets a Precedent for All Those Affected by Crop Poisons
Rev. William Alberts
United We Kneel, Divided We Stand
Chris Gilbert
How to Reactivate Chavismo
Kim C. Domenico
A Coffeehouse Hallucination: The Anti-American Dream Dream
August 14, 2018
Daniel Falcone
On Taking on the Mobilized Capitalist Class in Elections: an Interview With Noam Chomsky
Karl Grossman
Turning Space Into a War Zone
Jonah Raskin
“Fuck Wine Grapes, Fuck Wines”: the Coming Napafication of the World
Manuel García, Jr.
Climate Change Bites Big Business
Alberto Zuppi - Cesar Chelala
Argentina at a Crossroads
Chris Wright
On “Bullshit Jobs”
Rosita A. Sweetman
Dear Jorge: On the Pope’s Visit to Ireland
Binoy Kampmark
Authoritarian Revocations: Australia, Terrorism and Citizenship
Sara Johnson
The Incredible Benefits of Sagebrush and Juniper in the West
Martin Billheimer
White & Red Aunts, Capital Gains and Anarchy
Walter Clemens
Enough Already! Donald J. Trump Resignation Speech
August 13, 2018
Michael Colby
Migrant Injustice: Ben & Jerry’s Farmworker Exploitation
John Davis
California: Waging War on Wildfire
Alex Strauss
Chasing Shadows: Socialism Won’t Go Away Because It is Capitalism’s Antithesis 
Kathy Kelly
U.S. is Complicit in Child Slaughter in Yemen
Fran Shor
The Distemper of White Spite
Chad Hanson
We Know How to Protect Homes From Wildfires. Logging Isn’t the Way to Do It
Faisal Khan
Nawaz Sharif: Has Pakistan’s Houdini Finally Met his End?
Binoy Kampmark
Trump Versus Journalism: the Travails of Fourth Estate
Wim Laven
Honestly Looking at Family Values
Fred Gardner
Exploiting Styron’s Ghost
Dean Baker
Fact-Checking the Fact-Checker on Medicare-for-All
Weekend Edition
August 10, 2018
Friday - Sunday
David Price
Militarizing Space: Starship Troopers, Same As It Ever Was
Andrew Levine
No Attack on Iran, Yet
Melvin Goodman
The CIA’s Double Standard Revisited
Jeffrey St. Clair
Roaming Charges: The Grifter’s Lament
Aidan O'Brien
In Italy, There are 12,000 American Soldiers and 500,000 African Refugees: Connect the Dots 
Robert Fantina
Pity the Democrats and Republicans
Ishmael Reed
Am I More Nordic Than Members of the Alt Right?
Kristine Mattis
Dying of Consumption While Guzzling Snake Oil: a Realist’s Perspective on the Environmental Crisis
James Munson
The Upside of Defeat
Brian Cloughley
Pentagon Spending Funds the Politicians
Pavel Kozhevnikov
Cold War in the Sauna: Notes From a Russian American
FacebookTwitterGoogle+RedditEmail