Photograph Source: Kremlin.ru – CC BY 4.0
Against the backdrop of nearly 11 years of total war in Ukraine, Russia and North Korea are increasing military cooperation into a full military defense pact. Both Pyongyang and Moscow have signed a mutual defense obligation if either country is attacked. Currently, several thousand North Korean troops have been deployed to fight Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk region.
North Korea is turning into Russia’s biggest backer of the invasion thus far, and for that, the Kim Jong Un regime would expect a return favor and then some if war were to break out again on the Korean Peninsula.
The question is: how much and how far would Russia truly back Pyongyang?
Historical Ties
In the aftermath of World War II, the Soviet Union, predecessor of the Russian Federation, helped partition the Korean Peninsula alongside the United States. The Kremlin sent Kim Il Sung to look after its interests in the North.
Although not directly intervening during the Korean War, the Soviet Union sent advisors and various logistics to support the invasion. The Soviet Union was boycotting the UN Security Council, over the recognition of Taiwan, when the UN condemned the aggression of the Kim regime.
In the aftermath of the Korean War, the Soviet Union and later the Russian Federation provided diplomatic assistance to North Korea but became hesitant to fully back the increasingly rogue nation as the hereditary dictatorship became more isolated and began to develop nuclear weapons.
How North Korea is Bolstering Russia
Later, during the Putin era, Russia would provide vetoes in the United Nations to give international cover for North Korea’s belligerent activities, and simultaneously, the DPRK was one of the few countries to recognize Russia’s illegal annexations in Ukraine.
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Wagner Group sought out shells from North Korea in late 2022, which the Kremlin and Pyongyang denied. However, in 2023, North Korea would openly support Russia’s aggression.
In 2023, after a joint summit between Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un, North Korea sent over 7,000 tons of military equipment, including over 1 million artillery shells, to the Russian military directly. Even though shells from the DPRK have a high dud rate, they’re effective in controlling the tempo on the battlefield and masking troop movements, which played a role in Russian gains around the Avdiivka/Pokrovsk sector.
The Russian-North Korean Mutual Defense Pact
Russia and North Korea solidified a pact called a Strategic Comprehensive Partnership on June 18, 2024. This partnership includes a mutual defense agreement and deeper cooperation in the economic, scientific, labor, and technological sectors.
Later, in 2024, the Ukrainian government reported North Korean military advisor movements in Russia and possibly Ukraine. The amount of artillery supplied by Pyongyang to Moscow skyrocketed. Upwards of 5 million shells have now been sent to Russian forces—eclipsing what the West has sent.
In late October, South Korean signals intelligence confirmed the movement of DPRK troops into Vladivostok, en route to be deployed to Kursk and other potential theaters of the war. Approximately 10,000 North Korean troops are deployed around the Kursk region, with some reportedly already involved in direct combat.
The prospect of further DPRK deployments cannot be underestimated, as Ukraine has reported that Pyongyang could send as many 100,000 possible soldiers. Both Putin and Kim look to challenge the Western order. The conquest of Ukrainian territories marks the start of such plans.
Pyongyang Prepares for War with Seoul
Arguably, one of the major reasons for North Korea’s intervention in Russia’s war on Ukraine is to gather conventional wartime experience for DPRK troops and compile combat data from their weaponry. In early 2024, Kim Jong Un ordered an end to all reconciliation and unification talks with Seoul, labeling South Korea, the United States, and, by extension, Japan as the North’s primary foes.
In October 2024, North Korean state media claimed that the army was increasing recruitment, with over 1.4 million new volunteers—though this information cannot be independently verified.
The North has also destroyed cross-border roads with Seoul, signaling the collapse of what was left of peace talks between Seoul and Pyongyang. Kim Yo Jong, the sister of Kim Jong Un, who is even more radical than her brother, further emphasized the destruction of the roads.
Kim Yo Jong stated, “If the sovereignty of a nuclear weapons state was violated by mongrels tamed by Yankees, the master of those dogs should be held accountable for this,” according to KCNA state news. Furthermore, the North is looking to mass produce suicide attack drones for a potential war with South Korea. Meanwhile, the North will likely conduct more ballistic missile tests that will not only be watched carefully by the United States, Japan, and South Korea but China and Russia as well.
How Much Can Russia Truly Help Pyongyang in the Event of War?
Until its mutual defense pact with Russia, North Korea was internationally isolated and ostracized. Despite China’s direct military intervention in the Korean War, times have changed with its relations with North Korea.
During the Korean War, China intervened to prevent the complete collapse of the Kim regime and thus its buffer zone with a potential American-backed democracy. Although China would possibly back North Korea only to prevent a major refugee crisis, it would not directly support a preemptive invasion or missile barrage against South Korea. Seoul’s growing economic and technological power is far more lucrative than the failing North, and China doesn’t want to lose its South Korean trading partner.
So, as it shifts to a war footing, North Korea is seeking more aid from its new Russian ally. After decades of sanctions, the North’s defense sector stagnated, and its missiles and artillery are inaccurate compared to the South, which was more technologically advanced. Knowing that manpower alone cannot win future wars, Kim would look to modernize his military, and this is where the Kremlin comes in. Russia is capable of not only sending discounted energy to North Korea but also components of missiles and drone technology.
The biggest question mark in the defense pact is whether Russia could fully back North Korea if the Kim regime, overestimating its capabilities against Seoul, invaded South Korea just as Putin did with Ukraine.
Currently, the Russian military is overstretched and war-battered with over 700,000 casualties. The country is also facing a major economic crisis and labor shortage. Russia’s lack of support for other allies has had major consequences for governments in Syria, Mali, and Armenia.
Despite making advances in Ukraine, Russia still faces a major military shortage in quality of troops and is now facing the brunt of sanctions. Unless the war in Ukraine soon freezes on favorable terms for Moscow, the country may not be able to send ample resources and troops to Pyongyang if Kim makes a drastic move against Seoul. Russia also knows that a direct Russian intervention on the Korean peninsula would be met with a major response by the United States as well as potential pushback from China.
Nevertheless, the mutual defense pact between Russia and North Korea could lead to further destabilization in Eastern Europe and the Korean Peninsula. Russia might be able to provide sufficient forces to support a North Korean attack on South Korea, but its sharing of missile technology and components with an increasingly belligerent nuclear power must not be underestimated.
This first appeared on Foreign Policy in Focus.
