An amazing thing happened in Israel recently. The hard right and the hard left aligned to kick Benjamin NetanYahoo to the curb. Similarly, the pro-corporate right and anti-corporate left came together in the United States to kick Donald J. Trump to the curb. When these aligned enemies realize they hate each other, they will open the door and let the dictators back in. Democracy is likely to be a casualty of a second Trump term.
There are only four possible outcomes for the 2022 U.S. midterm Congressional elections:
1. Democrats hold the House and the Senate.
2. Democrats hold the House but lose the Senate.
3. Democrats lose the House but hold the Senate
4. Democrats lose both the House and the Senate.
My thesis is that all four of these possible outcomes will lead to Donald J. Trump being elected President of the United States on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.
Barring (pardon the pun) Trump being in prison or incapacitated, he will be President of the United States again if he runs in 2024. The barr for incapacitation is set pretty high, given that Reagan, Biden and Trump were all deemed fit to be Commanders in Chief. If Trump becomes President of the U.S. again — and I believe this is now likely — well, you know what happens then. Ten years from now, the United States will no longer be one country.
1. Democrats hold the House and hold the Senate.
Voter suppression efforts in states with Republican-majority legislatures — such as Georgia — are likely to eliminate the possibility of Democrats hanging onto either the U.S. House of Representatives or the Senate. Surprisingly strong Republican showings in 2020 mean that Republicans have the upper hand in redistricting nationwide.
The U.S. Supreme Court might look like it’s titlting suprisingly liberal, but don’t be fooled. The court has already indicated it doesn’t have a problem with voter suppression. If state legislatures want to gerrymander their Congressional districts, have at it! “The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in 2019 that federal judges have no jurisdiction over partisan gerrymandering.”
Without campaign finance restrictions, it’s all an academic exercise. Even with campaign finance restrictions, there appears to no longer be a Federal Elections Commission in the U.S. willing to enforce anything. In 2019, the FEC lacked enough members to conduct business and shut down. When it comes to election law, the Supreme Court is in favor of removing voters and protecting donors.
If the Democrats manage to hold onto the House and the Senate, they will most likely have to blow up the filibuster to pass anything. When they do, they will have to pass everything: Infrastructure, Voting Rights, Labor Unions, Single-Payer Healthcare, Medicare Expansion, Universal Preschool, Funding for Nursing Homes, State Pension Fund Bailouts, DACA Path to Citizenship, LGBTQ+ Rights, Taxes on the Rich, Taxes on Corporations, and even Reparations. That will most certainly lead to a Republican President in 2025. That will most likely be Trump.
Why will Democrats have to push everything through the door once they blow the filibuster? Because they are petrified they can’t win in 2024 with Geriatric Joe or Unpopular Kamala. State redistricting is going against Democrats in Texas, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina. Voter suppression means Democrats aren’t going to get the full benefit of the shift to a majority minority America.
Democrats fear if they let the 2022-24 legislative session slip between their fingers without breaking the filibuster and without passing anything meaningful, they will surely lose the Presidency in 2024, and possibly the House and Senate, too, leading to Republicans blowing the filibuster to pass legislation to lock Democrats out of power for decades, knowing conservative courts will block the inevitable challenges.
2. Democrats hold the House but lose the Senate.
Voter suppression in Georgia could cost Democrats control of the U.S. Senate. No matter what the cause, a single Democratic loss from the current 50-50 tie means absolutely nothing will get through the Senate. The gridlock will lead to voter frustration fueling a Republican victory in the 2024 presidential election.
3. Democrats lose the House but hold the Senate
This is considered the most unlikely scenario by many pundits and pollsters. The Democrats will lose enough seats to lose control of the house to Republicans, even if they manage somehow to hold the Senate. Republican control of the House would create immediate problems. The first is that Republicans can choose Donald Trump to be Speaker of the House.
The majority party in the House of Representatives does not have to choose a sitting member to be their Speaker. They can pick anyone they want. There will be a lot of pressure for Republicans to choose Donald Trump as their Speaker. Many might fear being “primaried” by a MAGA contender in the 2024 cycle if they don’t vote for Trump for Speaker.
As horrifying as the thought of Donald J. Trump as Speaker of the House in 2023 might be, it could be the best possible outcome of the election for Democrats. There’s a chance Trump will screw up the House so badly that he loses the 2024 presidential election as a result. Do not bet against Trump’s incompetence. His honey badger instinct for self-inflicted injury is stronger than ever!
The second big problem for Democrats if Republicans gain a majority in the House is that they will almost certainly try to impeach Joe Biden. It doesn’t matter for what. A conviction by two-thirds of the Senate is highly unlikely. If Trump has any say, however, look for House Republicans to attempt rescinding his two impeachments and decertifying the 2020 presidential election results. Republicans will surely keep the Biden administration busy with investigations into 2020 voter fraud, border security, and Hunter Biden’s hard drive.
4. Democrats lose the House and the Senate.
Should Democrats lose both houses of Congress — a distinct possibility thanks to a spate of voter suppression laws and Republican redistricting — don’t look for Trump to be made Speaker of the House. Rather, look ahead to the election in 2024 and how the full power of the U.S. Congress will be focused on making sure as few Democrats as possible are able to vote.
With control of the house, the senate, and critical swing state legislatures, Republicans will be in position to engineer a trifecta victory in 2024: House, Senate, President. Then you’ll see the filibuster blown, voter suppression enshrined, and possibly an anti-democratic Convention of States to hard bake a corporate agenda into a new U.S. Constitution for generations to come.
If you want to see what that looks like, take a look at what Milton Friedman called “The Miracle of Chili.” They suffered under a corporate constitution that required an impossible super-majority to change it. The constitution resulted in a grotesque transfer of wealth from the masses to the super rich. It took decades of protests to get rid of it. Today, Chile has embarked on rewriting its constitution using a broadly diverse group of elected representatives, not a dozen self-appointed white guys. The so-called “People’s Constitution” of Chile may show a path out of Trumpism for the United States and for other countries plagued with corporate control of the state and a ridiculous imbalance of wealth.
