In Stanley Kubrick’s masterpiece, “Dr. Strangelove”, any mention of the Doomsday Machine was verboten. However, back in May 2018 the intrepid Pepe Escobar, who tends to ignore verboten warnings, presented some raw reality:
It’s also no secret among Persian Gulf traders that in the – hopefully unlikely – event of a US-Saudi-Israeli war in Southwest Asia against Iran, a real scenario war-gamed by the Pentagon would be “the destruction of oil wells in the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council]. The Strait of Hormuz does not have to be blocked as destroying the oil wells would be far more effective.”
And what the potential loss of over 20% of the world’s oil supply would mean is terrifying; the implosion, with unforeseen consequences, of the quadrillion derivatives pyramid, and consequentially of the entire Western financial casino superstructure.
Call it a nuclear financial weapon of mass destruction chain reaction. Compared to that, the 2008 financial crisis would be little more than a walk in an ecologically friendly park.”
(Pepe Escobar. “Oil and gas geopolitics: No shelter from the storm.”
If we assume such a deterrent is one of the options why hasn’t Iran ever declared its own version of, “all options are on the table”?
There is no question that this alters the balance of power. Or, was it not necessary to bring it up and that’s why it was never presented as an option? If that is the case then why is Iran being pushed to the brink of war? Some have called Trumps’ actions an act of war. And if that is the case does Iran have the right to retaliate?
So far diplomatic efforts have been going well but this has not changed the minds of the major multinationals from leaving Iran. Maybe Iran should stop being so dependent on multinationals and instead deal with smaller companies from Europe that do no business with America. Doing business with such companies makes a great deal of sense, especially those that are active in the environmental arena; EV’s, PV makers, battery makers, etc.
What would trigger Iran’s Doomsday Machine? A few minutes after the first wave of bombs and missiles start hitting Iranian airports and radar positions with the rest of Iran’s infrastructure on the target list? What if the attacks are kept below a certain threshold and in combination with economic warfare are causing certain collapse leaving the decision makers in Tehran no option but to activate the Doomsday Machine? Is the United States prepared for such an outcome?
What if the war-gaming Pentagon concludes that an all-out attack is the best option in that it will partially blunt the Doomsday Machine? In such a scenario would Iran be inviting a devastating attack which it knows will guarantee its collapse even if it does launch the Doomsday Machine?
On the positive side the use of the Doomsday Machine would result in a 25% decrease of carbon dioxide entering the atmosphere, which could not have been achieved through any other non-disruptive CO2 reduction program.
If renewables were able to quickly fill that 25% shortfall then bringing on stream new oil fields would not be necessary.
If we change our perspective slightly it turns out that the fossil fuel industry is the real Doomsday Machine with some projections pointing to planetary ecocide soon after the methane bomb goes off. And given warming trends the methane bomb is very likely to go off, which means it’s the fossil fuel industry that is the culprit and needs shutting down if we are to avoid Doomsday.
So in a twisted way maybe Iran’s use of its Doomsday Machine will instead be sticking a giant wrench in the works of the real Doomsday Machine.