(Pundits and Pollsters are toeing the Mendoza Line.)
“We were lied to for months by the pundits and pollsters and the media. Voters had not “moved on” from the Supreme Court’s decision to debase and humiliate women by taking federal control over their reproductive organs. Crime was not at the forefront of the voters “simple” minds.”
~ Michael Moore
The Red Trickle
I listened to NPR and other radio outlets Election Recaps the last two days while driving 135 miles to and fro. They had the politicians, media hacks and useless pollsters lined up back-to-back. The gist of the endless hours of coverage was: “How did the Politicians, the Media and, especially, the Pollsters get it so wrong?”
Pre-election, the same folks who predicted a 2016 Clinton Landslide all were blathering about the coming “2022 Red Wave Tsunami.” It was anything but. (In 2016, the same pundit/pollsters: HuffPost predicted a Clinton sure thing – a 94% chance of victory and 340 Electoral Votes. NPR predicted a Clinton 332 Electoral College votes. The New York Times had Clinton at 85%. In 2016, Nate Silver and his Five-thirty-eight, the monumentally overrated Pollsters, predicted that Hillary Clinton was a 99+% lock to win the 2016 Michigan Primary and then after that fiasco, still predicted she had a 71% one to win the Presidency.)
The Blue Wall
Meanwhile, Michael Moore, was the one who predicted a Trump victory! In 2022, he was also THE one dismissing (with facts) any “Red Wave.”
Fast Forward to 2022 Mid-terms and it was déjà vu all over again. While the pundits and pollsters blathered on about “The Economy” “Crime, i.e. Race” “Immigration, i.e. Race” “Entitlements” and the other themes of the GOP tried-and-untrue playbook, yeoman activist Michael Moore put out 41 accurate daily analyses of just what was happening – “Mike’s Midterm Tsunami Truths.”
The big difference between Moore and the Pollsters is that he communicates with the common citizenry – of all sides. He has a finger on the pulse of Middle America. He knew that young people would turn out. No question about it: the Democrats owe their good showing in the Midterms to voters under 30, who turned out in record numbers and voted D, even despite such things as Biden’s immediate backtracking on Student Loan forgiveness. On the other hand, self-absorbed Boomers gave the GOP a 13% edge!
Moore predicted the Youth Vote (again based on facts):
“Since 2004, young voters have overwhelmingly leaned Democratic. Like I’ve said in earlier Truths — the youth vote elected Obama to the White House in 2012. The youth vote gave the Democrats the House back in the 2018 midterms. And in 2020, the youth vote won Biden Georgia and Pennsylvania. Overall, 65% of 18-24-year-olds voted for Biden vs 31% who voted for Trump.
And this year all signs are pointing to history exceeding itself…”
In the end, it wasn’t about the price of a gallon of gas/milk (ironically, the economy is so super-heated that the Fed has been desperately trying to cause unemployment to cool it down – and they and right-wing pundits are bragging about the lost jobs Fed policies are causing and lamenting that there are not more!). The public knows that the price of a gallon of gas/milk is because Corporate profits are at a 50 year high. All the “Inflation” equates to “Profits!”
People clearly had not “moved on” from perjurious Trump Supreme Court justices’ Dobbs decision, as the media almost unanimously told us they had. The GOP clearly did not gain anywhere near 60 Seats in the House, as we were told they would.
What really happened: every single State Initiative on Abortion Rights passed. Numerous states legalized Cannabis. And, where Democracy was clearly in play, only a handful of the 330 MAGAs Trump promoted won and major ones lost.
“Well, I think if they win, I should get all the credit, and if they lose, I should not be blamed at all.”
~ Trump actually said this!
Just a sample: In the Senate: Mehmet Oz—defeated in Pennsylvania by John Fetterman. Don Bolduc—defeated in New Hampshire by Sen. Maggie Hassan. Leora Levy—defeated in Connecticut by Richard Blumenthal. Gerald Malloy—defeated in Vermont by Peter Welch.
In the House: Bo Hines—defeated in North Carolina’s District 13 by Wiley Nickel. Steve Chabot—defeated in Ohio’s District 1 by Greg Landsman. Madison Gesiotto Gilbert—defeated in Ohio’s District 13 by Emilia Sykes. John Gibbs—defeated in Michigan District 3 by Hillary Scholten. Yesli Vega—defeated in Virginia’s District 7 by Abigail Spanberger. Karoline Leavitt—defeated in New Hampshire’s District 1 by Rep. Chris Pappas. J.R. Majewski—defeated in Ohio’s District 9 by Marcy Kaptur. Sandy Smith—defeated in North Carolina’s District 1 by Don Davis.
Governors: Tudor Dixon—lost to Governor Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan. Doug Mastriano—lost to Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania. Lee Zeldin—lost to Governor Kathy Hochul in New York. Dan Cox—lost to Wes Moore in Maryland. Geoff Diehl—lost to Maura Healey in Massachusetts. Tim Michels—lost to Governor Tony Evers in Wisconsin. Darren Bailey—lost to Governor J.B. Pritzker in Illinois. Scott Jensen—lost in Minnesota to Governor Tim Walz. Mark Ronchetti—lost in New Mexico to Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham.
Here in Oregon, Dem gubernatorial candidate Tina Kotek leads (and some media have called it for her) over a MAGA candidate heavily-funded by the GOP, Right-wing PACs, billionaire Phil Knight (who also funded an “Independent” candidate in an effort to take votes away from Kotek) and other wealthy Republicans. An obscene $69 million was spent by the three candidates in this small state’s race!
Secretary of State: Kim Crockett—defeated in the Minnesota Secretary of State Election by Steve Simon. In Arizona, Democrat Adrian Fontes expanded his lead to 5.4% over MAGA Mark Finchem in the Secretary of State race which has yet to be called.
The Real Issues
The Democrats “outperformed” in states that Democracy and Reproductive Health Care were on the ballot – also, other than in a few former Slavery States, anywhere Trump inserted himself. (All six states that had Reproductive Health Care Initiatives saw those Initiatives win!)
Older, white Americans are clearly scared of losing their privileged status. As Michael Moore noted:
“If you think you are scared of us losing on Tuesday, imagine what it feels like for our not-so-loyal opposition who are now forced to live in a country where the majority no longer go to church, the majority of adults are no longer married, the majority no longer have a gun in the house, the vast majority support nondiscrimination laws for the LGBTQ+ community, and the vast, vast majority are not haters, bigots, climate deniers, election deniers or drive a General Motors car. Think of how scared they are of Tuesday!”
The Bottom Line
Michael Moore can be trusted. Youth can be trusted. Boomers can be counted on to vote their privilege. The politicians certainly cannot be trusted with predictions. And, neither can the corporate, fat cat-controlled media or the party-leaning pollsters. As the MSDNC, CNN and PBS folks all rush to take credit and FOX et al. lament the losses and claim Dem chicanery “(Democracy was never at risk”) as the reason… all you really need to know is that not a one of them has noted Moore’s role, thanked him or had him on.