It was an intelligence failure of a scope to vastly exceed all others, when one nuclear superpower perceived the other moving to a nuclear first strike and prepared for war, while the other missed all the signals and believed it was business as usual.
It was 1983, when tensions between the United States and Soviet Union were at one of the most intense points in the Cold War. Soviet leader Yuri Andropov believed the Reagan Administration was preparing to launch a nuclear strike on his country, and that a NATO exercise to mimic a nuclear war, Able Archer 83 taking place in the early days of November, was a cover for the real thing. Soviet nuclear forces were put on combat alert, bombers were loaded with nuclear weapons, nuclear subs were put out to sea, and mobile missile launchers were dispersed.
U.S. Air Force Lieutenant General Leonard Perroots, NATO deputy intelligence chief, on duty during the exercise, received reports of the activity but decided not to recommend that NATO nuclear forces mirror the increase. He later said he had a gut feeling nothing was amiss. A later review by the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board (PFIAB) said Perroots decision “made in ignorance (was) fortuitous, if ill informed . . . “
“Had Perroots mirrored the Soviets and escalated the situation, the War Scare could conceivably have become a war,” writes Nate Jones in one of three recent histories of the 1983 close call, Able Archer 83: The Secret NATO Exercise That Almost Triggered Nuclear War.
The story of Soviet first strike fears is told in the first part of this series, while the Soviet preparations for a potential first strike during Able Archer 83 are related in the second. This third part covers the slow realization by western leaders of how scared the Soviets were, and how close we came to World War III. Robert Gates, secretary of defense under the Bush and Obama administrations, and CIA deputy director during the exercise, later said, “We may have been at the brink of nuclear war and not even known it.”
“Only later was it appreciated how severely rattled the Soviet leadership had become and how they had come to believe what no American could accept, that the United States would unleash a war by taking the initial step and launching a pre-emptive first strike,” writes Taylor Downing in another of the recent accounts, 1983: Reagan, Andropov, and a World on the Brink. Both the U.S. and Soviet “intelligence failures in November 1983 had in fact been on a staggering scale . . . For years the question would be asked in the CIA, how had we missed such a dangerous moment?”
Mark Ambinder, in the third history of the 1983 war scare, Able Archer 83: The Secret NATO Exercise That Almost Triggered Nuclear War, says a senior intelligence official “told me it was the greatest intelligence failure in the history of the United States.” He quotes Gates calling the failure “monumental.”
The fact is that both nuclear superpowers have studied and modeled first strike strategies. In a nuclear war the overwhelming advantage goes to the side that strikes first, crippling the enemy’s ability to respond by wiping out most of its weapons and command and control systems. So each side is prepared to launch the first salvo if it perceives the other side is preparing to do so. (This is detailed in the first part of this series.) That was the danger created by Soviet perceptions that Able Archer 1983 was cover for a first strike.
It remains unknown how close the Soviets came to launching their own pre-emptive attack, a topic to which I will return below. But everything about Able Archer 83 and the events surrounding it sends the clearest of messages, especially in a time when conflicts between nuclear-armed great powers are at perhaps the highest pitch in history. We must abolish nuclear weapons, or their use in war at some point is virtually inevitable.