FacebookTwitterGoogle+RedditEmail

To Clear the Air, Sanders Should Challenge New York Vote

In November 2004, the officially announced results of the Ukrainian presidential election differed from exit polling by 12%.

U.S. officials officially cried fraud.

Last Tuesday, the results of the New York primary between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders differed from exit polling by 12%.

Tim Robbins has cried fraud, and the Washington Post’s most consistent Clinton hack this cycle is leading the charge in mocking him.

A friend of mine, a Sanders supporter who acted as a poll worker in Brooklyn, initially saw nothing wrong, suggesting that a bunch of people, who were ineligible to vote, cast provisional ballots for Sanders and then told exit pollsters that they voted accordingly. My friend, who has not given me specific permission to use their name, worked a precinct in the Greenpoint neighborhood, Sanders’ best in New York City. About one-third of all ballots were cast provisionally in that precinct.

But that would not explain why exit polling has been so bad in fifteen other states, missing consistently to Clinton’s benefit and outside the margin of error in eight states with open or mixed primaries.

Charnin Chart

Source: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/

When exit polling and final results are substantially off in places where the U.S. doesn’t like the party that wins, U.S. officials and their media partners cry foul. This has been true in recent decades not just in Ukraine, but also in BelarusSerbia, and Venezuela. Statistically improbable exit polling differences matter everywhere else, it seems, but not here.

Partisans on either side of the GOP-Democratic divide generally accept that election fraud was engaged in by the likes of Kennedy, Nixon, and possibly George W. Bush. Bloomberg, not exactly a left-wing rag, has very strongly suggested that hacking of U.S. elections has taken place and is taking place in this cycle. Direct testimony from Chicago’s audit of Clinton versus Sanders results says the results were fiddled with in favor of Clinton. There are multiple lawsuits and a federal investigation into voter suppression and potential election fraud in Arizona, with a Federal judge insisting that a hearing on fraudulently switched registrations continue today, against the protestations of Arizona elections officials. A New York Board of Elections official has been scapegoated and suspended without pay for purging more than 126,000 voters in Brooklyn where initial exit pollsshowed Bernie Sanders doing much better than final results. (This scapegoating and likely firing while perhaps tens of thousands of Brooklyn provisional ballots sit uncounted has caused my friend to re-assess whether anything corrupt may be happening.)

When will we take the possibility that funny business is happening seriously?

There was a glaring error in the chart that Tim Robbins tweeted out yesterday; Wisconsin exit polling at closing time showed an 11 point win for Sanders, not a 27 point win.  The more accurate numbers are here and in the chart above. I’ve also looked up the initial announcements for Iowa, New Hampshire (which I cannot find), Nevada, and South Carolina. I’ll go into the details in another post at goodgawdanotherblog.wordpress.com, to be published by tomorrow morning.

Here’s the bottom line:

In seventeen out of nineteen contests with exit polling since the caucuses in Iowa and Nevada, the exit polls have over-estimated Bernie Sanders’ eventual share of the vote, usually substantially. In nine out of the nineteen contests, the initial exit poll results were outside the margin of error. This is a stunning number of times. There is absolutely no correlation with closed versus open primaries or South versus non-South contests. Translated to a delegate count (not including Arizona because there was no exit polling): Bernie Sanders would have about 58 delegates more and Clinton 58 less. The gap between the two would be about 119 instead of 235. This gap would be closeable, while the actual number is not.

(I have not moved the delegate results for the exit polling in these states because, taken together, the evidence seems to suggest relatively accuracy: Iowa (+6 Sanders versus exit poll at closing), Nevada (-8), New Hampshire (?), Oklahoma (+6), Florida (-3), North Carolina (-2), Wisconsin (+3) for a total of +2 for Sanders in these seven or eight states, about a quarter point deviation from Even when taken in average.)

The only way to begin to clear the air is for the Sanders campaign to use the provisions available via §9–208 of New York’s Board of Election Rules. Those rules allow Sanders to have a representative available while results are reviewed in each election district in the next week.

If there is nothing amiss, let’s put the wild theories to rest immediately with a real review. This, by the way, is what happened in Venezuela in 2004 where the Carter Center negotiated a recount of the vote with both parties present. The recount validated the previous final results. If that happens in New York, Arizona, and Illinois, Sanders fans will just have to admit that Bernie could not get enough traction with Black and Latino voters and re-strategize. Until then, a massive cloud hangs in the air.

More articles by:

Doug Johnson Hatlem is best known for his work as a street pastor and advocate with Toronto’s homeless population from 2005-2013. He is now a film producer and free-lance writer based in Chicago.

November 13, 2018
Patrick Cockburn
The Midterm Results are Challenging Racism in America in Unexpected Ways
Victor Grossman
Germany on a Political Seesaw
Cillian Doyle
Fictitious Assets, Hidden Losses and the Collapse of MDM Bank
Lauren Smith
Amnesia and Impunity Reign: Wall Street Celebrates Halliburton’s 100th Anniversary
Joe Emersberger
Moreno’s Neoliberal Restoration Proceeds in Ecuador
Carol Dansereau
Climate and the Infernal Blue Wave: Straight Talk About Saving Humanity
Dave Lindorff
Hey Right Wingers! Signatures Change over Time
Dan Corjescu
Poetry and Barbarism: Adorno’s Challenge
Patrick Bond
Mining Conflicts Multiply, as Critics of ‘Extractivism’ Gather in Johannesburg
Ed Meek
The Kavanaugh Hearings: Text and Subtext
Binoy Kampmark
Concepts of Nonsense: Australian Soft Power
November 12, 2018
Kerron Ó Luain
Poppy Fascism and the English Education System
Conn Hallinan
Nuclear Treaties: Unwrapping Armageddon
Robert Hunziker
Tropical Trump Declares War on Amazonia
John W. Whitehead
Badge of Shame: the Government’s War on Military Veterans
Will Griffin
Military “Service” Serves the Ruling Class
John Eskow
Harold Pinter’s America: Hard Truths and Easy Targets
Rob Okun
Activists Looking Beyond Midterm Elections
Binoy Kampmark
Mid-Term Divisions: The Trump Take
Dean Baker
Short-Term Health Insurance Plans Destroy Insurance Pools
George Wuerthner
Saving the Buffalohorn/Porcupine: the Lamar Valley of the Gallatin Range
Patrick Howlett-Martin
A Note on the Paris Peace Forum
Joseph G. Ramsey
Does America Have a “Gun Problem”…Or a White Supremacy Capitalist Empire Problem?
Weekend Edition
November 09, 2018
Friday - Sunday
Louis Proyect
Why Democrats Are So Okay With Losing
Andrew Levine
What Now?
Jeffrey St. Clair
Roaming Charges: Chuck and Nancy’s House of Cards
Brian Cloughley
The Malevolent Hypocrisy of Selective Sanctions
Marc Levy
Welcome, Class of ‘70
David Archuleta Jr.
Facebook Allows Governments to Decide What to Censor
Evaggelos Vallianatos
The Zika Scare: a Political and Commercial Maneuver of the Chemical Poisons Industry
Nick Pemberton
When It Comes To Stone Throwing, Democrats Live In A Glass House
Ron Jacobs
Impeach!
Lawrence Davidson
A Tale of Two Massacres
José Tirado
A World Off Balance
Jonah Raskin
Something Has Gone Very Wrong: An Interview With Ecuadoran Author Gabriela Alemán
J.P. Linstroth
Myths on Race and Invasion of the ‘Caravan Horde’
Dean Baker
Good News, the Stock Market is Plunging: Thoughts on Wealth
David Rosen
It’s Time to Decriminalize Sex Work
Dan Glazebrook
US Calls for a Yemen Ceasefire is a Cynical Piece of Political Theatre
Jérôme Duval
Forced Marriage Between Argentina and the IMF Turns into a Fiasco
Jill Richardson
Getting Past Gingrich
Dave Lindorff
Not a Blue Wave, But Perhaps a Foreshock
Martha Rosenberg
Dangerous, Expensive Drugs Aggressively Pushed? You Have These Medical Conflicts of Interest to Thank
Will Solomon
Not Much of a Wave
Nicolas J S Davies
Why Yemeni War Deaths are Five Times Higher Than You’ve Been Led to Believe
FacebookTwitterGoogle+RedditEmail