FacebookTwitterGoogle+RedditEmail

The Meaning of the Iran Nuke Deal

by

Although opponents in the USA of the nuclear agreement recently signed by Iran and the P5+1 will undoubtedly continue to criticize and vilify it as a blatant betrayal of both the USA and Israel, it remains a highly significant development.

Technically, the agreement allows for the number of Iranian centrifuges to be cut back drastically so that the Fordow facility, although secure and protected from a military attack, may not concentrate on research and science rather than weapons. To this end, the Arak heavy water reactor is to be modified to prevent it from being used for nuclear weapons. Further, Iran’s nuclear program is to be closely monitored by the IAEA, partially to ensure its stockpile of enriched uranium is kept to a minimum.

According to supporters of the deal, it is a smart move. They say the deal is the best route to constrain or even reduce Iran’s nuclear ambitions and for promoting political change within the country. Although it is clear that the deal is an imperfect compromise, providing less than the ideal solutions sought by both sides, it does mean that Iran will have to comply with international oversight before it can recover any of its assets frozen by sanctions. Falsely, some critics have claimed that the agreement rewards Iran with a “signing bonus”.

In fact, Iran will be able to recover over time and with prolonged compliance, almost $150 billion of its own money. While it will immediately use some of those funds to expand and modernize its military capacity – buying modern fighter jets from Russia and China in order to bring its air force more up to date – President Hassan Rouhani also plans to improve the economy, which at the moment is ailing. For example, Iran will also buy passenger planes from the West.

The key political hope though is the deal will encourage Iran to open up more and allow its citizens to have greater freedom. Change is likely to be slow and gradual but millions of Iranians sense they may gain more space to effect improvements in their daily lives. The West will be hoping that at the very least the Iranian regime’s Human Rights record may improve and its participation in foreign affairs may begin to focus more on cooperation.

There are potential hindrances, nevertheless. Iran’s political establishment is intrinsically corrupt. In particular, the IRGC is certainly going to try and get its hands on the unfrozen funds. Moreover, Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei and the IRGC are highly unlikely to give up any of the political control they exert. President Rouhani will have to continue a pragmatic strategy that avoids any dramatic gestures towards change. Furthermore, war, revolution or external pressures could easily cause Iran to disintegrate or fall into chaos.

Therefore while the nuclear deal is not and cannot transform Iran, it is a step in the right direction.

 

 

More articles by:

Dr. Fariborz Saremi is an Iranian strategic analyst based in Hamburg/Germany.Dr.Saremi is a regular contributor for World Tribun.com,Freepressers.com and Defense & Foreign Affairs. At times he has been a commentator for the German TV, ARD/NDR.

Weekend Edition
January 19, 2018
Friday - Sunday
Paul Street
Dr. King’s Long Assassination
David Roediger
A House is Not a Hole: (Not) Caring about What Trump Says
George Burchett
How the CIA Tried to Bribe Wilfred Burchett
Mike Whitney
Trump’s Plan B for Syria: Occupation and Intimidation
Michael Hudson – Charles Goodhart
Could/Should Jubilee Debt Cancellations be Reintroduced Today?
Marshall Auerback – Franklin C. Spinney
Boss Tweet’s Generals Already Run the Show
Andrew Levine
Remember, Democrats are Awful Too
James Bovard
Why Ruby Ridge Still Matters
Wilfred Burchett
The Bug Offensive
Brian Cloughley
Now Trump Menaces Pakistan
Ron Jacobs
Whiteness and Working Folks
Jeffrey St. Clair
The Keeper of Crazy Beats: Charlie Haden and Music as a Force of Liberation
Robert Fantina
Palestine and Israeli Recognition
Jan Oberg
The New US Syria “Strategy”, a Recipe For Continued Disaster
ADRIAN KUZMINSKI
The Return of the Repressed
Mel Gurtov
Dubious Partnership: The US and Saudi Arabia
Robert Fisk
The Next Kurdish War Looms on the Horizon
Lawrence Davidson
Contextualizing Sexual Harassment
Jeff Berg
Approaching Day Zero
Karl Grossman
Disaster Island
Thomas S. Harrington
What Nerve! In Catalonia They are Once Again Trying to Swear in the Coalition that Won the Most Votes
Pepe Escobar
Rome: A Eulogy
Robert Hunziker
Will Aliens Save Humanity?
Jonah Raskin
“Can’t Put the Pot Genie Back in the Bottle”: An Interview with CAL NORML’s Dale Gieringer
Stepan Hobza
Beckett, Ionesco, and Trump
Joseph Natoli
The ‘Worlding’ of the Party-less
Julia Stein
The Myths of Housing Policy
George Ochenski
Zinke’s Purge at Interior
Christopher Brauchli
How Trump Killed the Asterisk
Rosemary Mason - Colin Todhunter
Corporate Monopolies Will Accelerate the Globalisation of Bad Food, Poor Health and Environmental Catastrophe
Michael J. Sainato
U.S Prisons Are Ending In-Person Visits, Cutting Down On Reading Books
Michael Barker
Blame Game: Carillion or Capitalism?
Binoy Kampmark
The War on Plastic
Cindy Sheehan – Rick Sterling
Peace Should Be Integral to the Women’s March
Kevin Zeese - Margaret Flowers
No Foreign Bases!
Matthew Stevenson
Into Africa: Across the Boer Heartland to Pretoria
Joe Emersberger
What’s Going On in Ecuador? An Interview With Wladimir Iza
Clark T. Scott
1918, 1968, 2018: From Debs to Trump
Cesar Chelala
Women Pay a Grievous Price in Congo’s Conflict
Michael Welton
Secondly
Robert Koehler
The Wisdom of Mass Salvation
Seth Sandronsky
Misreading Edu-Reform 
Ann Garrison
Full-Spectrum Arrogance: US Bases Span the Globe
Louis Proyect
Morality Tales on the American Malaise: the Films of Rick Alverson
David Yearsley
Winston and Paddington: Marianelli’s Musical Bears
FacebookTwitterGoogle+RedditEmail