Climate change/global warming is the main protagonist on the worldwide stage of collapsing ecosystems.
The ecosystem is a combination of living organisms in harmony with nonliving elements like air, water, and mineral soil interacting as one whole. But, what if the living and nonliving elements stop interrelating as ‚Äúone harmonized whole‚ÄĚ? Then, what happens?
As things stand today, the planet‚Äôs future is decidedly in the camp of ‚Äúthen, what happens?‚ÄĚ
Signals of planetary stress are literally off the charts, meanwhile the world continues spinning like always, as people go to work, drive cars, go out to dinner, and watch TV, some read books but not much these days.
Those routines of going to work, out to dinner, and so forth maintain an equilibrium, a daily pattern on the same freeways, the same faces, the same workplaces. By itself, life seems very normal, nothing much to worry about other than making monthly car payments.
Similarly, the natural world experiences its own rhythm, like the everyday cycle of people going to work, on the freeway, to dinner, watching TV. But, radically dissimilar to that everyday cycle that seems so dependable, so routine, the natural world is amiss, chaotic, crumbling apart, bursting at the seams. However, this deep trouble is not noticed, not recognized, not reported in accordance with severe levels of impending calamity. After all, as long as Wall Street goes up, all is well, isn‚Äôt it? Yet, all is not well, not by a long shot.
Ecosystem degradation happens in silence, not on freeways, not in theaters, not in malls. There is no ticker tape to watch or CNBC to listen to.
Consider this, what if tire blowouts occurred every day on the commute? What if the television set blacks-out every two minutes? What if faucets unexpectedly turn dry? Those situations could be metaphors for the ecosystem today, anomalous, irregular, variable, faltering! Thus, climate change is very real, and people are already starting to experience ecosystem collapse.
The S√£o Paulo water crisis, or ‚Äúhydric collapse‚ÄĚ as many are calling it, has left a city of 20 million teetering on the brink (The Guardian, February 2015). Water is shut off in most parts of the city everyday at 1:00 P.M. Scientists say this disaster, in large measure, is payback because of massive rain forest degradation, disrupting normal weather patterns (Dr. Antonio Donato Nobre, National Institute for Research in the Amazon: The Magic of the Amazon: A River That Flows Invisibly All Around Us,‚ÄĚ TED, Nov. 2010).
A shortage of water leads to various and sundry consequences, as for one example among many: ‚ÄúThe financial hub of one of the world‚Äôs biggest economies is experiencing a water crisis so bad that experts say it could affect investors globally‚ÄĚ (Worries Grow as Serious Drought Hits S√£o Paulo, Brazil, CNBC, July 2015).
All of which may be a blessing in disguise because ‚Äúaffecting investors globally‚ÄĚ may be the only way for ‚Äúecosystem collapse‚ÄĚ to gain attention in today‚Äôs neoliberal ‚Äúonly-the-bottom-line-counts‚ÄĚ world.
The ecosystem‚Äôs collapse knows no boundaries. Three million people will be without water in Taiwan, as the government drastically rations (BBC, April 2015). The normal rainy season is now abnormally missing. Scientists say global warming has altered the jet streams and weather patterns. Thankfully, good news, as of July 10th, typhoon Chan-hom heads towards Taiwan for a little temporary relief.
California is haunted by and threatened with full-scale desertification as a powerful high-pressure system known as the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge hovers over the Pacific Ocean, blocking normal wintertime rainfall (Weather West, February 2015). Scientists (Princeton and Stanford) say climate change is a significant culprit.
Not only that, but with planetary heat, i.e., global warming increasing month-by-month for years on end, California‚Äôs main water tower, the Sierra Nevada Mountain Range snowpack runs dry way too quickly.
In fact, worldwide, glacial water towers are rapidly diminishing from too much heat, threatening hydropower, irrigation, and drinking water as well as commercial rivers in heavily populated areas of Asia and South America, akin to S√£o Paulo.
Chinese scientists report significant glacial loss (up t0 70%) at the headwaters of major commercial rivers, like the Lancang River, the ‚ÄúDanube of the East.‚ÄĚ
Based upon the past record of incessant temperature rise over the last few decades, glacial ice/snow will likely remain under heated attack: ‚ÄúMarch 2015 and first quarter of year warmest on record: Arctic sea ice extent smallest on record for the month of March,‚ÄĚ Global Summary Information ‚Äď March 2015, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – NOAA.
Relentlessly, global temperatures continue setting new record highs, year after year. In the United States: ‚ÄúThe June contiguous U.S. average temperature was 71.4¬įF, 2.9¬įF above the 20th century average, second only to June 1933 in the 121-year period of record,‚ÄĚ State of the Climate, National Centers for Environmental Information, July 2015.
Not only that: ‚ÄúA new study published online in the journal¬†Science¬†finds that the rate of global warming during the last 15 years has been as fast as or faster than that seen during the latter half of the 20th Century. The study refutes the notion that there has been a slowdown or ‚Äėhiatus‚Äô in the rate of global warming in recent years,‚ÄĚ (Science Publishes New NOAA Analysis: Data Show no Recent Slowdown in Global Warming, NOAA, June 4, 2015).
Increasing levels of heat bring forth new problems. China suffers from major desertification with 27% of the country or 2.6 million sq km affected. Woefully, another 1.7 million sq km, or 65% additional land, is at risk of turning to desert for a grand total of 45% of China at risk of desertification. Proof that land degradation in combination with global warming takes a huge toll even though the government has been fighting back (China Times, June 2015). Scientists say global warming accelerates worldwide desertification.
In turn, desertification contributes to global warming, a positive feedback loop (which is really a negative), as ‚Äúwarming is allowing the carbon that has been stored in dry land vegetation and soils to be released to the atmosphere as it dries out and dies,‚ÄĚ Julie Kerr Casper, Ph.D., Earth scientist, Bureau of Land Mgmt., ‚ÄúChanging Ecosystems: Effects of Global Warming,‚ÄĚ November 2009.
Tipping Points of Irreversible Ecosystem Decay/Destruction/Collapse
‚ÄúA prestigious group of scientists from around the world is warning that population growth, widespread destruction of natural ecosystems, and climate change may be driving Earth toward an irreversible change in the biosphere, a planet-wide tipping point that would have destructive consequences‚Ä¶ there will be a reduction in biodiversity and severe impacts on much of what we depend on to sustain our quality of life, including, for example, fisheries, agriculture, forest products and clean water. This could happen within just a few generations‚ÄĚ (UC Berkley, June 2012).
As for planet-wide tipping points: ‚ÄúThere are 30 self-reinforcing feedback loops that are irreversible,‚ÄĚ (Guy McPherson, Climate Change and Human Extinction (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lA7koR4pz68). Some are very tipsy, some already tipping.
For example, methane hydrates in the Arctic Ocean, harmlessly contained, so far, under the ice for millennia, are equivalent to 1,000 to 10,000 gigatons of carbon versus 226 gigatons in the atmosphere (Science, March 2010). Today the level is over 300 gigatons (McPherson). Because the Arctic is loosing so much ice cover, a 50-gigaton burp of methane is highly possible at any time, which is equivalent to an additional 1,000 gigatons of carbon (Nature, July 2013). The results could be dire.
In the melting permafrost of Siberia: ‚ÄúMethane vents 30 centimeters (one foot) in diameter were lit on fire by scientists in 2010‚Ä¶ by the summer of 2011, they were not lighting this on fire anymore because those methane vents were a kilometer (1/2 mile) across‚Ä¶ a twenty-six-hundred-fold (2,600) increase in size in a year‚Ä¶ it‚Äôs almost as if we‚Äôve triggered rapid, unpredictable and non-linear responses‚ÄĚ (McPherson).
According to NASA, methane plumes that are kilometers wide have already been monitored in the Arctic (NASA, July 2013).
The plain fact is that ‚Äúloss of Arctic ice‚ÄĚ equals way too much methane released into the atmosphere. It‚Äôs a dastardly closed circuit of ruination prompted by the selection of fossil fuels over renewable energy sources. But, Germany (25% renewables) knows better. China is aware and active. However, as for the derisory U.S., nobody knows where or how or when it comes into the picture.
The biggest worry amongst some scientists is the rapidity of past ecosystem collapse. According to Paul Beckwith, Laboratory for Paleoclimatology and Climatology, University of Ottawa: ‚Äú55 million years ago‚Ä¶ the temperature rose globally by 5C in 13 years, as shown in sediment samples.‚ÄĚ(COP20: Global Arctic Methane Emergency, December 2014).
Notice that it did not take hundreds (100s) or thousands (1,000s) or millions (1,000,000s) of years to increase 5C. In that particular case, once the tipping point was triggered, it occurred in a geological flash, within only 13 years.
If perchance the Arctic ice entirely melts away during the summer season, which some prominent scientists believe is due fairly soon, it is not out of the question that the release of methane buried under the ice for millennia will self-perpetuate into a global warming frenzy or super cycle, possibly repeating the experience of 55 million years ago. Who knows? Then, the lights go out, no more TV, and who needs Wall Street? According to Dr. Peter Wadhams, Cambridge University, humanity cannot tolerate a 5C increase.
Thirteen (13) years seems like a short timeframe to kick into gear the potential of an earthshattering ecosystem breakdown. All of which begs the question: How deadly might it be and how quickly does 5C turn into disaster?
Nobody really knows for sure that it will even happen, but on the other hand, it happened in the geological record, only recently discovered within the past two years by Rutgers scientists (Ken Branson, New Finding Shows Climate Change Can Happen in a Geological Instant, Rutgers Today, Oct. 6, 2013).
The Ocean‚Äôs ‚Äúunder the weather‚ÄĚ
The ocean is the kingpin of the ecosystem and the single best barometer of the condition/health of the planet‚Äôs ecosystem.
Decidedly, problems are found throughout the marine food chain from the base, plankton, showing early signs of reproductive and maturation complications due to too much CO2 emitted by burning fossil fuels, to the largest fish species, the whale shark, which is on the endangered species list.
The ocean is not functioning properly. It‚Äôs a festering problem that will not go away. This is due to acidification, and, as long as fossil fuels predominate, it will methodically, and assuredly, over time, kill the ocean, which absorbs 30% of the CO2 from the atmosphere and has been absorbing 80-90% of the planet‚Äôs heat (NOAA).
Over 3,300 floating Argo probes strategically stationed in oceans worldwide measure heat content. The results show 90% of planetary heat is stored there (discussed in IPCC report d/d 2007). By way of comparison, the atmosphere stores only about 2% because of its small heat capacity.
The ocean heat buildup is potentially a big problem: Ocean heat, under certain conditions, can whiplash back up into the atmosphere causing rapid acceleration of global warming as Pacific trade winds potentially slacken in years ahead (National Center for Atmospheric Research scientist Kevin Trenberth).
Not only that, but problems stacked upon more problems, the rate of change of ocean pH (measure of acidity) is 10 times faster than 55 million years ago. That period of geologic history was directly linked to a mass extinction event as levels of CO2 mysteriously went off the charts (C.L. Dybas, On a Collision Course: Oceans Plankton and Climate Change, BioScience, 2006).
Zooming in on the Future, circa 2050 ‚Äď Location: Castello Aragonese aka: ‚ÄúThe Acid Sea‚ÄĚ
Scientists have discovered a real life Petri dish of seawater conditions similar to what will likely occur ocean-wide by the year 2050, assuming fossil fuels continue to emit CO2 at current rates.
This real life Petri dish is located in the Tyrrhenian Sea at Castello Aragonese, which is a tiny island that rises straight up out of the sea like a tower. The island is located 17 miles west of Naples. Tourists like to visit Aragonese Castle (built 474 BC), which is on the island, to see the display of medieval torture devices.
But, the real commotion is offshore, under the water, where Castello Aragonese holds a very special secret, an underwater display that gives scientists a window 50 years into the future.¬† A quirk of geology is at work whereby volcanic vents on the seafloor surrounding the island are bubbling up large quantities of CO2. In turn, this replicates the level of CO2 scientists expect the ocean to absorb over the course of the next 50 years.
‚ÄúWhen you get to the extremely high CO2 almost nothing can tolerate that,‚ÄĚ according to Jason-Hall Spencer, PhD, professor of marine biology, School of Marine Science and Engineering, Plymouth University (UK), who studies the seawater around Castello Aragonese (Elizabeth Kolbert, The Acid Sea, National Geographic, April, 2011.)
The adverse effects of excessive CO2 are found everywhere in the immediate surroundings of the tiny island. Barnacles, one of the toughest of all sea life, are missing around the base of the island where seawater measurements show the heaviest concentration of CO2. And, within the water, limpets, which wander into the area seeking food, show severe shell dissolution. Their shells are almost completely transparent. The underwater sea grass is a vivid green, which is abnormal because tiny organisms usually coat the blades of sea grass and dull the color, but no such organisms exists. Sea urchins, which are commonplace further away from the vents, are nowhere to be seen around the island.
The only life forms found around Castello Aragonese are jellyfish, sea grass, and algae; whereas, an abundance of underwater sea life is found in more distant surrounding waters. Thus, the Castello Aragonese Petri dish is essentially a dead sea except for weeds, explaining why Jane Lubchenco, former head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, refers to ocean acidification, as global warming‚Äôs ‚Äúequally evil twin.‚ÄĚ
To that end, a slow motion death march leading to significant ecosystem collapse is churning away in the ocean in real time, and sadly, humans are witnesses to this extinction event, but it does not hit home, it happens in hiding, silent, within a vast expanse of water. Other than a few scientists, who really knows much about it?
Alex Rogers, Scientific Director of IPSO and professor of Conservation Biology at the Department of Zoology, University of Oxford: ‚ÄúClimate Change affects are going to be extremely serious, and it‚Äôs interesting when you think many people who talk about this in terms of what will happen in the future‚Ä¶ our children will see the effects of this‚Ä¶ Well, actually we‚Äôre seeing very severe impacts from climate change already‚Ä¶ We‚Äôre already there.‚ÄĚ (Source: State of the Ocean.org, Video Interview, Dr. Alex Rogers, 2011).
‚ÄúMost, if not all, of the five global mass extinctions in Earth‚Äôs history carry the fingerprints of the main symptoms of‚Ä¶ global warming, ocean acidification and anoxia or lack of oxygen. It is these three factors ‚ÄĒ ‚Äėthe deadly trio‚Äô ‚ÄĒ which are present in the ocean today. In fact, the [current] situation is unprecedented in the Earth‚Äôs history because of the high rate and speed of change,‚ÄĚ Rogers, A.D., Laffoley, D. A. International Earth System Expert Workshop on Ocean Stresses and Impacts, Summary Report, IPSO Oxford, 2011.
The conspicuous issue, ‚ÄúThe current situation is unprecedented in Earth‚Äôs history because of the high rate and speed of change‚ÄĚ (Rogers).
Maybe, in the near future, somebody who has solid political leadership skills will initiate a nationwide infrastructure project connecting major cities via electric-powered trains and construct solar panels and wind turbines along the right of ways, assuming there is enough time.
Postscript: On a quasi-positive, but still melancholic, note: ‚ÄúI don‚Äôt think we are going to become extinct. We‚Äôre very clever and extremely resourceful ‚Äď and we will find ways of preserving ourselves, of that I‚Äôm sure. But whether our lives will be as rich as they are now is another question,‚ÄĚ Sir David Attenborough, English broadcaster and naturalist, Are We Changing Planet Earth, BBC, 2006.