FacebookTwitterGoogle+RedditEmail

Who Killed Rafik Hariri?

I do not know, what follows is speculation.

Consider this hypothesis: Rafik Hariri was declared a “collaborator” by the Iraqi Sunni Insurgency, who killed him.

Who stands to gain?, and why?

1. Israel: because it increases US pressure on Syria, and could lead to a weakening of Hizbollah (1) (Jansen, Jordan Times, 17 Feb.),

2. U.S.A.: provides an opportunity to push ahead with the neo-con Middle East Campaign, by increasing pressure on Syria, which the US accuses of aiding the Iraqi (Sunni) Insurgency (3) (Fisk, 16 Feb.)

3. al-Qaeda: striking at a Saudi-linked political power — Hariri had dual Lebanese-Saudi citizenship — with close ties to the West (France) and who was opposed to Hizbollah attacks on Israel (2) (Fisk, 15 Feb.), (5) (Juan Cole 14 & 16 Feb.)

4. Iraqi Sunni Insurgency: to draw Syria further into the Insurgent struggle against the U.S.A. — and Shi’ite electoral power — for the control of Iraq.

A map readily shows how easily one could build pipelines from Iraq through Syria and then Lebanon to the Mediterranean. A shortcut. This natural route is also one we could expect the Insurgent groups tied to the former Saddam Hussein regime (probably the officer corps and the intelligence service) to withdraw along. In Damascus, there must be banks for secreted funds, and refuges in which to regroup, plan, and store munitions. That much Iraqi wealth flowed along this channel in the past only reinforces this logic, which is the basis of US accusations against Syria regarding the Iraqi resistance.

The clarity of this logic would be evident to the Syrians from the start, who would no doubt insist that their Iraqi Insurgent allies not tarry in Syria, so the Washington cops don’t finger Syria as an accomplice. So, hide out in Lebanon.

Think of this exile population, accustomed to power, still possessing wealth, munitions, intelligence capabilities and some connections, as similar in many ways to the anti-Castro Cubans in Miami. Their focus becomes to subvert the power of the government granting them asylum (or cover, perhaps with some blackmail), so as to bring it to bear against their enemies in the homeland. An Iraqi Sunni Insurgency gains if Syria faces the same attack from the U.S. In killing Rafik Hariri, this (hypothetical) exile Insurgency does Syria a “favor” it really doesn’t need, and whose consequences might force Syria to join in the Insurgency, widening the war dramatically.

This hypothesis is like the plot of the Alfred Hitchcock film “Strangers On A Train,” in which two men trade murders — initially in jest — so as to free themselves of burdensome restrictions without either being implicated in crime. In the film, one fellow played by Robert Walker actually commits the murder-as-favor he promised, and the second man, played by Farley Granger, is drawn into a perilous struggle to break the blood-bond of murder conspiracy he finds himself in. Syria may be in a similar spot, entrapped by the exile Insurgency and under tightening suspicion by the world’s Top Cop.

There may be no way out for Syria however they respond to the exile Insurgency and the Hariri assassination. The difficulty for them may be that in this case the interests of the U.S., Israel, al Qaeda and the Iraqi Sunni Insurgency all coincide.

Manuel Garcia, Jr. can be reached at: mango@idiom.com

References

[1] Michael Jansen, “Who Stands to Gain from Hariri’s Death?,” The Jordan Times, 17 Feb. 2005,

[2] Robert Fisk, “The Killing Of Mister Lebanon,” 15 Feb. 2005,

[3] Robert Fisk, “The Blame For Hariri Hit Falls On Syria,” 16 Feb. 2005,

[4] Robert Fisk, “In Death, Hariri Unites The Lebanese,” 17 Feb. 2005,

[5] Juan Cole, comments of 14 & 16 Feb. 2005

More articles by:

Manuel Garcia, Jr, once a physicist, is now a lazy househusband who writes out his analyses of physical or societal problems or interactions. He can be reached at mangogarcia@att.net

April 26, 2018
Robby Sherwin
The Hat
April 25, 2018
Stanley L. Cohen
Selective Outrage
Dan Kovalik
The Empire Turns Its Sights on Nicaragua – Again!
Joseph Essertier
The Abductees of Japan and Korea
Ramzy Baroud
The Ghost of Herut: Einstein on Israel, 70 Years Ago
W. T. Whitney
Imprisoned FARC Leader Faces Extradition: Still No Peace in Colombia
Manuel E. Yepe
Washington’s Attack on Syria Was a Mockery of the World
John White
My Silent Pain for Toronto and the World
Dean Baker
Bad Projections: the Federal Reserve, the IMF and Unemployment
David Schultz
Why Donald Trump Should Not be Allowed to Pardon Michael Cohen, His Friends, or Family Members
Mel Gurtov
Will Abe Shinzo “Make Japan Great Again”?
Binoy Kampmark
Enoch Powell: Blood Speeches and Anniversaries
Frank Scott
Weapons and Walls
April 24, 2018
Carl Boggs
Russia and the War Party
William A. Cohn
Carnage Unleashed: the Pentagon and the AUMF
Nathan Kalman-Lamb
The Racist Culture of Canadian Hockey
María Julia Bertomeu
On Angers, Disgusts and Nauseas
Nick Pemberton
How To Buy A Seat In Congress 101
Ron Jacobs
Resisting the Military-Now More Than Ever
Paul Bentley
A Velvet Revolution Turns Bloody? Ten Dead in Toronto
Sonali Kolhatkar
The Left, Syria and Fake News
Manuel E. Yepe
The Confirmation of Democracy in Cuba
Peter Montgomery
Christian Nationalism: Good for Politicians, Bad for America and the World
Ted Rall
Bad Drones
Jill Richardson
The Latest Attack on Food Stamps
Andrew Stewart
What Kind of Unionism is This?
Ellen Brown
Fox in the Hen House: Why Interest Rates Are Rising
April 23, 2018
Patrick Cockburn
In Middle East Wars It Pays to be Skeptical
Thomas Knapp
Just When You Thought “Russiagate” Couldn’t Get Any Sillier …
Gregory Barrett
The Moral Mask
Robert Hunziker
Chemical Madness!
David Swanson
Senator Tim Kaine’s Brief Run-In With the Law
Dave Lindorff
Starbucks Has a Racism Problem
Uri Avnery
The Great Day
Nyla Ali Khan
Girls Reduced to Being Repositories of Communal and Religious Identities in Kashmir
Ted Rall
Stop Letting Trump Distract You From Your Wants and Needs
Steve Klinger
The Cautionary Tale of Donald J. Trump
Kevin Zeese - Margaret Flowers
Conflict Over the Future of the Planet
Cesar Chelala
Gideon Levy: A Voice of Sanity from Israel
Weekend Edition
April 20, 2018
Friday - Sunday
Paul Street
Ruling Class Operatives Say the Darndest Things: On Devils Known and Not
Conn Hallinan
The Great Game Comes to Syria
Jeffrey St. Clair
Roaming Charges: Mother of War
Andrew Levine
“How Come?” Questions
Doug Noble
A Tale of Two Atrocities: Douma and Gaza
Kenneth Surin
The Blight of Ukania
FacebookTwitterGoogle+RedditEmail