FacebookTwitterGoogle+RedditEmail

Who Killed Rafik Hariri?

by MANUEL GARCÍA, Jr.

I do not know, what follows is speculation.

Consider this hypothesis: Rafik Hariri was declared a “collaborator” by the Iraqi Sunni Insurgency, who killed him.

Who stands to gain?, and why?

1. Israel: because it increases US pressure on Syria, and could lead to a weakening of Hizbollah (1) (Jansen, Jordan Times, 17 Feb.),

2. U.S.A.: provides an opportunity to push ahead with the neo-con Middle East Campaign, by increasing pressure on Syria, which the US accuses of aiding the Iraqi (Sunni) Insurgency (3) (Fisk, 16 Feb.)

3. al-Qaeda: striking at a Saudi-linked political power — Hariri had dual Lebanese-Saudi citizenship — with close ties to the West (France) and who was opposed to Hizbollah attacks on Israel (2) (Fisk, 15 Feb.), (5) (Juan Cole 14 & 16 Feb.)

4. Iraqi Sunni Insurgency: to draw Syria further into the Insurgent struggle against the U.S.A. — and Shi’ite electoral power — for the control of Iraq.

A map readily shows how easily one could build pipelines from Iraq through Syria and then Lebanon to the Mediterranean. A shortcut. This natural route is also one we could expect the Insurgent groups tied to the former Saddam Hussein regime (probably the officer corps and the intelligence service) to withdraw along. In Damascus, there must be banks for secreted funds, and refuges in which to regroup, plan, and store munitions. That much Iraqi wealth flowed along this channel in the past only reinforces this logic, which is the basis of US accusations against Syria regarding the Iraqi resistance.

The clarity of this logic would be evident to the Syrians from the start, who would no doubt insist that their Iraqi Insurgent allies not tarry in Syria, so the Washington cops don’t finger Syria as an accomplice. So, hide out in Lebanon.

Think of this exile population, accustomed to power, still possessing wealth, munitions, intelligence capabilities and some connections, as similar in many ways to the anti-Castro Cubans in Miami. Their focus becomes to subvert the power of the government granting them asylum (or cover, perhaps with some blackmail), so as to bring it to bear against their enemies in the homeland. An Iraqi Sunni Insurgency gains if Syria faces the same attack from the U.S. In killing Rafik Hariri, this (hypothetical) exile Insurgency does Syria a “favor” it really doesn’t need, and whose consequences might force Syria to join in the Insurgency, widening the war dramatically.

This hypothesis is like the plot of the Alfred Hitchcock film “Strangers On A Train,” in which two men trade murders — initially in jest — so as to free themselves of burdensome restrictions without either being implicated in crime. In the film, one fellow played by Robert Walker actually commits the murder-as-favor he promised, and the second man, played by Farley Granger, is drawn into a perilous struggle to break the blood-bond of murder conspiracy he finds himself in. Syria may be in a similar spot, entrapped by the exile Insurgency and under tightening suspicion by the world’s Top Cop.

There may be no way out for Syria however they respond to the exile Insurgency and the Hariri assassination. The difficulty for them may be that in this case the interests of the U.S., Israel, al Qaeda and the Iraqi Sunni Insurgency all coincide.

Manuel Garcia, Jr. can be reached at: mango@idiom.com

References

[1] Michael Jansen, “Who Stands to Gain from Hariri’s Death?,” The Jordan Times, 17 Feb. 2005,

[2] Robert Fisk, “The Killing Of Mister Lebanon,” 15 Feb. 2005,

[3] Robert Fisk, “The Blame For Hariri Hit Falls On Syria,” 16 Feb. 2005,

[4] Robert Fisk, “In Death, Hariri Unites The Lebanese,” 17 Feb. 2005,

[5] Juan Cole, comments of 14 & 16 Feb. 2005

More articles by:

Manuel Garcia, Jr, once a physicist, is now a lazy househusband who writes out his analyses of physical or societal problems or interactions. He can be reached at mangogarcia@att.net

CounterPunch Magazine

minimag-edit

bernie-the-sandernistas-cover-344x550

zen economics

June 22, 2017
Jason Hirthler
Invisible Empire Beneath the Radar, Above Suspicion
Ken Levy
Sorry, But It’s Entirely the Right’s Fault
John Laforge
Fukushima’s Radiation Will Poison Food “for Decades,” Study Finds
Ann Garrison
Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour Party, and the UK’s Socialist Surge
Phillip Doe
Big Oil in the Rocky Mountain State: the Overwhelming Tawdriness of Government in Colorado
Howard Lisnoff
The Spiritual Death of Ongoing War
Stephen Cooper
Civilized, Constitution-Loving Californians Will Continue Capital Punishment Fight
Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla
Cuba Will Not Bow to Trump’s Threats
Ramzy Baroud
Israel vs. the United Nations: The Nikki Haley Doctrine
Tyler Wilch
The Political Theology of US Drone Warfare
Colin Todhunter
A Grain of Truth: RCEP and the Corporate Hijack of Indian Agriculture
Robert Koehler
When the Detainee is American…
Jeff Berg
Our No Trump Contract
Faiza Shaheen
London Fire Fuels Movement to Challenge Inequality in UK
Rob Seimetz
Sorry I Am Not Sorry: A Letter From Millennials to Baby Boomers
June 21, 2017
Jim Kavanagh
Resist This: the United States is at War With Syria
James Ridgeway
Good Agent, Bad Agent: Robert Mueller and 9-11
Diana Johnstone
The Single Party French State … as the Majority of Voters Abstain
Ted Rall
Democrats Want to Lose the 2020 Election
Kathy Kelly
“Would You Like a Drink of Water?” Please Ask a Yemeni Child
Russell Mokhiber
Sen. Joe Manchin Says “No” to Single-Payer, While Lindsay Graham Floats Single-Payer for Sick People
Ralph Nader
Closing Democracy’s Doors Until the People Open Them
Binoy Kampmark
Barclays in Hot Water: The Qatar Connection
Jesse Jackson
Trump Ratchets Up the Use of Guns, Bombs, Troops, and Insults
N.D. Jayaprakash
No More Con Games: Abolish Nuclear Weapons Now! (Part Four)
David Busch
The Kingdom of Pence–and His League of Flaming Demons–is Upon Us
Stephen Cooper
How John Steinbeck’s “In Dubious Battle” Helps Us Navigate Social Discord
Madis Senner
The Roots of America’s Identity and Our Political Divide are Buried Deep in the Land
June 20, 2017
Ajamu Baraka
The Body Count Rises in the U.S. War Against Black People
Gary Leupp
Russia’s Calm, But Firm, Response to the US Shooting Down a Syrian Fighter Jet
Maxim Nikolenko
Beating Oliver Stone: the Media’s Spin on the Putin Interviews
Michael J. Sainato
Philando Castile and the Self Righteous Cloak of White Privilege
John W. Whitehead
The Militarized Police State Opens Fire
Peter Crowley
The Groundhog Days of Terrorism
Norman Solomon
Behind the Media Surge Against Bernie Sanders
Pauline Murphy
Friedrich Engels: a Tourist In Ireland
David Swanson
The Unifying Force of War Abolition
Louisa Willcox
Senators Bernie Sanders, Cory Booker, Tom Udall Back Tribes in Grizzly Fight
John Stanton
Mass Incarceration, Prison Labor in the United States
Robert Fisk
Did Trump Denounce Qatar Over Failed Business Deals?
Medea Benjamin
America Will Regret Helping Saudi Arabia Bomb Yemen
Brian Addison
Los Angeles County Data Shows Startling Surge in Youth, Latino Homelessness
Native News Online
Betraying Indian Country: How Grizzly Delisting Exposes Trump and Zinke’s Assault on Tribal Sovereignty and Treaty Rights
Stephen Martin
A Tragic Inferno in London Reflects the Terrorism of the Global Free Market
Debadityo Sinha
Think Like a River
FacebookTwitterGoogle+RedditEmail