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November
17, 2006
A Down-to-Earth Disengagement Plan
George
McGovern's Return to Capitol Hill
By KEVIN ZEESE
Former Senator and U.S. presidential
candidate George McGovern came to Capitol Hill to advocate for
a responsible exit from Iraq. He spoke at an event organized
by the Congressional Progressive Caucus of staffers and advocates
on November 16, 2006 in the Congress. He was joined by his colleague
and co-author, Professor William Polk, who has broad foreign
policy experience, particular understanding of insurgencies to
occupation as well as expertise on Iraq, a country he first visited
in 1946.
McGovern said they wrote their
book, "Out
of Iraq," in order to "try and bring American policy
closer to reality." Both had been on the lecture circuit
and saw that Americans recognized that "Iraq was a disastrous
blunder." Further, a "substantial percentage of the
U.S. military know this as well." But, at the same time
people feel trapped concluding "now that we're there we
can't just leave." Many people feel that if we leave things
will get worse. So, they realized that what was needed was a
systematic withdrawal plan that would increase the likelihood
of a positive outcome and decrease the risk of increased violence.
They describe a six month plan
for responsibly getting out of Iraq and providing the resources
to reduce the violence after the U.S. leaves. McGovern describes
it as a "down to earth disengagement plan to reduce the
turbulence and reduce the hatred of the United States."
He concludes that the American occupation is the cause of much
of the trouble and the violence will reduce shortly after the
U.S. leaves. At the same time he notes, "we are realists
and it will not solve all the problems."
William Polk, a former Harvard
and University of Chicago president who has served in various
foreign policy posts in the U.S. government, is in the process
of writing about twelve insurgencies throughout history. His
review begins with the U.S. insurgency, also known as the American
Revolution. One common denominator of these insurgencies is
"when the occupiers leave the violence ends as the insurgency
loses support."
Polk pointed out that Mao Tse
Tung said there are two things in guerilla war: water and fish.
Fish are the fighters and the water is the people who support
them. The only way to kill the fish is to take the water away.
Ending an occupation takes away the water.
He pointed to the experience
of the French in Algiers, where he served as a U.S. representative,
after the French left, he says "there was one week of chaos
and then the violence stopped." He notes "it will
not be all sweetness and light the next day, but it will settle
down." Further, whenever acknowledging the potential violence
after withdrawal, it is important to note the current violence,
which is escalating, of the occupation.
One of the excellent additions
McGovern and Polk bring to the discussion is their effort to
put the choices in perspective. They note we are spending $10
million per hour, $246 million per day in Iraq. Their program,
which includes funds for a managed withdrawal, funds for rebuilding
and funds for a stabilization force, would cost approximately
$13.2 billion compared to between $300 and $400 billion
in costs for the occupation over two years. The U.S. would save
97% of the current cost of staying in Iraq. Of course, the human
costs are also staggering. "Every day, every hour, increases
all of these costs," noted Polk.
Gael Murphy of Code Pink raised
the point that no one in Congress ever asks the question
is there a relationship between the growth of the insurgency
and the presence of U.S. troops. In response Polk began by noting
that people do not want to face reality. But people at the Army
War College have said U.S. troops are the cause of the insurgency.
And, George McGovern added that the most recently released National
Intelligence Estimate indicated that Iraq had become a recruitment
ground for terrorists because of the U.S. presence.
Aseel Albanna of Iraqi Voices
for Peace expressed the concern of many Iraqis about the existing
government how it was corrupt and really did not represent
Iraqis as well as that many Iraqis "roll their eyes"
when there is discussion of the U.N. sending a peace keeping
force. In response Polk pointed out that in every guerilla war
the government installed by the occupiers falls when the occupying
army leaves. He pointed out how Bush says that the Iraqis picked
this government through elections, but this was also true with
the South Vietnamese government. They were voted into office
by wide margins but after the U.S. left that government disappeared.
Polk expects that when the U.S. leaves there will need to be
a new government. The U.S. should not try to control the selection
of a new government. Iraqis are intelligent people who are capable
of governing themselves. The U.S. should stay out of the process.
No doubt there will be jockeying for power but a consensus will
develop.
Polk believes that a division
of Iraq into three countries is not realistic, but it will be
up to the Iraqis to decide. While some try to draw a neat and
clean map of three areas, Sunni, Shia'a and Kurd, the reality
is that these areas are all mixed. He estimates one million
people would be displaced by such a division. He could see up
to one in ten Iraqis being forced to move. He expects such an
approach would cause a great deal of violence and death.
A key thing to give people
confidence is a stabilization force. This needs to be a group
"hired" by the Iraqis, not to fight the insurgency,
but to provide order on the roads, at schools, banks, hospitals
and other key locations. In order to make the rebuilding of
Iraq more effective, the U.S. also needs to provide funds to
allow Iraqis to return to their country as a lot of talent and
resources have left due to the violence and the occupation.
Jeff Milliard of Iraq Veterans
Against the War, who had just been working on an exit strategy
for his organization, asked whether U.S. reparations should be
specific as suggestion by McGovern-Polk, or more general? Polk
agreed that there needs to be flexibility so that we can adjust
to circumstances. The reason they were specific in detailing
where the funds should go was to give people an understanding
about what is needed and what it will cost. He does not like
the word "reparations" rather he uses the term "compensation"
to more clearly describe what was needed. Further, because there
are questions about the Iraqi government he suggests funds may
be best sent through the World Health Organization or a UN Commission.
When the details of their exit strategy are reviewed (see summary
below) the extent of impact of the war and occupation is more
fully realized.
Milliard also asked about taking
care of returning vets. The McGovern-Polk plan includes provisions
for this issue. Polk noted that there are tens of thousands of
casualties that need to be cared for. Their plan states: "The
veterans of the war in Iraq especially need and deserve a comprehensive
rehabilitation physically, mentally, educationally, and
economically, including the highly successful offerings of the
World War II G.I Bill of Rights."
A lot of the remaining discussion
focused on how the Democrats were elected to lead on this issue
and how we can encourage that, further concerns were expressed
about the Baker-Hamilton Commission. Some of the suggestions
made included forming an independent commission that more represents
the views of the anti-war movement, with the support of friendly
members of Congress. Further, a series of forums on Capitol
Hill about various aspects of the war, e.g. is the occupation
a cause of the violence, will there be more violence if the U.S.
leaves, would be a way to bring different perspectives to the
Congress. And, a suggestion was made to send a U.S. congressional
delegation to meet with refugees and bring personal stories back.
This would re-humanize Iraq for Americans and hopefully make
US willing to open their wallets and hearts.
There is general recognition
that the most important power that the Congress has to stop the
war is the power of the purse. In response to a question about
the funding of the war by Paul Kawika Martin of Peace Action,
Polk emphasized the importance of language we are not advocating
a fund cut-off, but rather a redirection of funds and a significant
savings of funds. He described it as spending $3 to save $97.
Spending on Iraq needs to be redirected to a managed exit, rebuilding
of Iraq, providing basic services and a stabilization force.
The clearest vehicle in Congress dealing with funding of the
war is the McGovern Bill, introduced by Rep. Jim McGovern of
Massachusetts. The bill is often inaccurately described as a
cut-off of funds but in reality it does not end funding for the
war, rather it redirects funding for exiting and stabilizing
Iraq.
Polk pointed out that President
Truman was wrong when he said "the buck stops here."
In reality, he said "the buck stops with us."
The McGovern-Polk
Plan Summary and Highlights
1. Staying in Iraq is not an
option. Withdrawal is not only a political imperative but also
a strategic requirement. Withdrawal is not without cost (neither
is staying), but it is also inevitable and we will pay costs
at some point. The decision to withdraw soon will not require
additional expenditures on the contrary it will effect
massive savings. We are not advocating "cut and run"
we are urging an orderly withdrawal on a reasonable schedule
that will prevent further damage to U.S. interests.
2. The Iraq government would
be wise to request the short-term services of an international
force to police the country during and immediately after the
period of American withdrawal. Such a force should be temporary
with a firm date fixed in advance for withdrawal. Our estimate
is that such a force would be needed for two years during this
period the force would be slowly but steadily cut back. It's
focus should be limited to public security. Such a force would
be most acceptable if its composition were drawn from Arab or
at least Muslim countries, as suggested by Brent Scowcoft in
a Washington Post column of January 16, 2006.
3. During the period of withdrawal
if the Iraqi government requests U.S. assistance the U.S. should
do all it reasonably can to assit it in embodying and training
a permanent national police force. Once the American troops are
withdrawn, the Iraqi public is unlikely to continue to support
the insurgents, so the level of combat is almost certain to fall.
This has been the experience in every comparable guerilla war.
The American withdrawal plan should include a provision of $1
billion to help the Iraq government create, train, and equip
such a force the cost of four days of the American occupation.
4. America should immediately
release all prisoners of war it holds and close detention centers.
Physical control of former members of the Iraqi regime who have
been indicted by the Iraqi government should be made to the Iraqi
government. A respected nongovernmental organization should be
appointed to process claims of and pay compensation to those
who have been tortured as defined by the Geneva Convention.
5. America should not encourage
the growth and heavy armament of a reconstituted Iraqi army as
such have frequently acted against civil governments and Iraqi
citizens. The U.S. should encourage the transfer of soldiers
it has already recruited to a national police force or to a national
reconstruction corps. The U.S. should commit to an allocation
of $500 million, the cost of two days occupation, for the training
of a national reconstruction corps.
6. Withdrawal of U.S. forces
must include immediate cessation of work on U.S. military bases.
Fourteen so-called "enduring bases" are under construction
and five are already built massive bases amounting to virtual
cities.
7. Americans should withdraw
from the Green Zone, their vast sprawling complex in the center
of Baghdad. The U.S. is spending $1 billion on its headquarters
in the Green Zone, which contains or will contain some three
hundred homes, Marine barracks and 21 other buildings along with
its own electrical, water and sewage systems. This should be
turned over to the Iraqi government.
8. Before the turnover the
U.S. should buy, rent or build a "normal" embassy for
a much-reduced complement of U.S. officials. This should be outside
of the Green Zone so it is symbolically not part of the occupation.
9. Mercenaries (euphemistically
known as Personal Security Detail) now amount to 25,000 armed
men a force larger than the British troop contingent
hired directly or indirectly by the U.S. government. They must
be withdrawn rapidly and completely. The way to withdraw them
is simple stop the payments we make to them.
10. The U.S. must assist in
digging up and destroying the land mines and unexploded ordinance
and clean-up the depleted uranium in artillery shells and their
targets. Much of this work should be turned over to Iraqi contractors
in order to employ Iraqis but it does require professional training.
The U.S. should make available a fund of $250 million one
day's occupation to assist in the survey and planning the
removal.
11. Rebuilding should be, and
can be, done by Iraqis, alleviating the socially crippling rate
of unemployment. The U.S. should make a generous contribution
to this effort in the form of grants and loans through the Iraqi
government. This will also increase the power of the government.
The U.S. should also allocate funds for survey, planning and
organization of the rebuilding of the Iraq economy a sum
of $1 billion (four days of wartime expenditures). After this
survey the U.S. and Great Britain should determine in consultation
with the Iraqi government what it is willing to pay for. Parallel
to reconstruction should be the demolition of the ugly monuments
of warfare, i.e. dismantling and disposing of miles of concrete
blast walls and wire barriers erected around American installations.
Further U.S. destruction of Iraqi cultural sites, including building
military installations on top of them, needs to be corrected
and a fund of $250 million (one day of war) should be made available
to assist in the restoration of these sites. Rebuilding should
also include civic institutions where the U.S. should provide
fellowships for the training of lawyers, judges, journalists,
and a variety of nongovernmental social workers. This should
cost $500 million (two days cost of war). Many skilled Iraqis
have left their country and the U.S. should assist in encouraging
their return, another $500 million should be provided for this
effort.
12. An independent accounting
of Iraqi funds is urgently required. This will cost approximately
$100 million. If funds were misappropriated or misused they
should be repaid.
13. The U.S. should make reparations
to Iraqi civilians for loss of lives and property it caused.
The British have already begun to do so in their zone. The U.S.
already authorizes individual military units to make condolence
payment of up to $2,500. This amount compares to $400,000 paid
to beneficiaries of an American military casualty. If the number
of unjustified deaths is 50,000 and compensation is $10,000 per
person the probable total allocation would be approximately $500
million. If the number of those incapacitated is between 15,000
and 25,000 (the best we can make) and the same payment is made
the total cost would be about $200 million.
14. The U.S. should not object
to the Iraqi government voiding all contracts for petroleum exploration,
development, and marketing made during the American occupation,
so these can be renegotiated or thrown open to fair bidding.
15. The U.S. should encourage
with large-scale assistance various UN agencies including
the World Health Organization, UNICEF, the World Food Program
and the Food and Agricultural Organization as well as nongovernmental
organizations to help reconstitute organizations to help reconstitute
the Iraqi public health system. While this is a massive undertaking
the total cost of such rebuilding would only amount to eight
days of the occupation, about $1.7 billion.
16. Finally, America should
express its condolences for the large number of Iraqis killed,
incapacitated, incarcerated, and/or tortured. A simple gesture
of conciliation would go far to shift our relationship from occupation
to friendship. It is a gesture without cost but with immense
value.
In summary the total monetary
cost of the basic program might total roughly $7.75 billion.
The second tier programs would amount to approximately $5.5 billion.
Assuming these programs would save the U.S. two years of occupation
expenditures of at least $350 billion, but more likely
$400-$500 billion this would be a tremendous savings to
the U.S. taxpayer. And, these are just the monetary savings.
Even if our estimates are unduly optimistic and the actual costs
turn out to be far higher, we believe that implementing our plan
for withdrawal would be perhaps the best investment ever made
by our country.
Summarized from "Out of
Iraq: A Practical Plan for Withdrawal Now," by George McGovern
and William R. Polk, Simon and Schuster, 2006.
More information on the McGovern-Polk
Plan for ending the war can be seen in an article they wrote
for Harpers
Magazine.
Thanks to Katherine M. Fuchs,
Organizing and Policy Associate of Peace Action who shared her
notes of this meeting to help this report more accurate.
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