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Today's Stories December 17, 2007 Mike Whitney Tom Barry Uri Avnery Greg Moses Allan Nairn Patrick Bond Stephen Lendman Charles Jonkel Laray Polk Stephen Fleischman December 15 / 16, 2007 Peter Linebaugh Howard Zinn Standard Schaefer Raymond J.
Lawrence Alan Farago Saul Landau Jenna Orkin Ahmad Samih
Khalidi Robert Fantina Missy Comley
Beattie Ramzy Baroud James L. Secor Elijah Wald Website of
the Weekend
December 14, 2007 JoAnn Wypijewski John Ross Jacob Hornberger Andy Worthington Allan Nairn Dave Zirin Dave Lindorff Misty MacDuffee Ben Terrall Dr. Mustafa
Barghouthi Website of the Day
December 13, 2007 Paul Craig
Roberts Mike Whitney Ron Jacobs Norman Solomon Peter Morici Sandy Mayes Franklin Lamb Jacob Hornberger Nadim Rouhana Dave Zirin Website of the Day
Allan
Nairn Alan
Farago Ray
McGovern Winslow
T. Wheeler Evan
Jones James
Petras Joel
Hirschorn Joshua
Frank Sherry
Wolf Dan
Bacher Website
of the Day
December 11, 2007 Patrick
Cockburn Diana
Johnstone Paul
Craig Roberts David
Macaray Ralph
Nader Andy
Worthington Martha
Rosenberg Steve
Champion / Kim
Nicolini Michael
Dickinson Website
of the Day
Uri
Avnery Debbie
Nathan JoAnn
Wypijewski Steve
Kelly Donna
J. Volatile
December 8 / 9, 2007 Alexander
Cockburn Brenda
Norrell Saul
Landau R.
F. Blader Ray
McGovern Allan
Nairn Linn
Washington, Jr Paul
Craig Roberts
December 7, 2007 Sean
Penn Arthur
Versluis M.
G. Piety Pam
Martens Alan
Farago Allan
Nairn Col.
Dan Smith Alice
Slater Robert
Weissman Website
of the Day
December 5, 2007 Mike
Whitney Sharon
Smith James
Petras Ron
Jacobs Dave
Zirin John
V. Whitbeck Peter
Zinn Niranjan
Ramakrishnan Alan
Farago Heather
Gray Website
of the Day
December 4, 2007 Alexander
Cockburn Andy
Worthington Paul
Craig Roberts Ray
McGovern Winslow
T. Wheeler Allan
Nairn Russell
Mokhiber Nikolas
Kozloff John
V. Walsh Ghada
Ageel Stephen
Soldz Website
of the Day
December 3, 2007 Tariq
Ali Bill
Quigley Eric
Walberg Uri
Avnery Marjorie
Cohn Dave
Lindorff Stephen
Fleischman Martha
Rosenberg Website
of the Day
December 1 / 2, 2007 Alexander
Cockburn Jeffrey
St. Clair Mike
Whitney Shemon
Salam Roger
Burbach Benjamin
Dangl Brian
M. Downing Greg
Moses Sonja
Karkar Saul
Landau Margaret
Kimberley John
Ross Reza
Fiyouzat Judith
Scherr Lance
Olsen Christopher
Brauchli Robert
Fantina Dan
Bacher Michael
Donnelly Website
of the Weekend
November 30, 2007 Peter
Stone Brown Wajahat
Ali Allan
Nairn Alan
Farago John
Ross Corporate
Crime Reporter Lucia
Alvarez James
Rothenberg Website
of the Day
November 29, 2007 R.
F. Blader Ismael
Hossein-Zadeh Stephen
Soldz Sheldon
Richman George
Wuerthner Felice
Pace Col.
Dan Smith Harvey
Wasserman Nikolas
Kozloff Paul
Krassner Dave
Lindorff CP
News Service Website
of the Day November 28, 2007 James
Petras Jeff
Halper Pam
Martens Peter
Morici Mohammed
Khatib Helen
Redmond William
S. Lind Ben
Tripp Liaquat
Ali Khan Jeff
Berg Website
of the Day
November 27, 2007 Joe
DeRaymond Paul
Craig Roberts Marjorie
Cohn Mike
Whitney Ron
Jacobs Col.
Dan Smith Ralph
Nader Karim
Makdisi Christopher
Ketcham Ronan
Bennett Website
of the Day
November 26, 2007 Kathleen
and Bill Christison Paul
Craig Roberts David
Macaray Sameer
Dossani Roger
Burbach Mark
Scaramella Brian
McKinlay Rick
Kuhn Binoy
Kampmark Monica
Benderman Brenda
Norrell Website
of the Day
November 24 / 25, 2007 Alexander
Cockburn Robert
Fisk Saul
Landau Jeffrey
St. Clair Rannie
Amiri Christopher
Brauchli Daniel
Gross Mike
Whitney Marjorie
Cohn David
Rosen David
Michael Green Kenneth
Rexroth Muhammad
Iqbal Website
of the Day
Gary
Leupp Laura
Carlsen David
Macaray Andy
Worthington Clifton
Ross Seth
Sandronsky Dan
Bacher William
A. Cook Website
of the Day
November 22, 2007 Alan
Farago Greg
Moses Dave
Lindorff Mike
Ely Omar
Azfar
November 21, 2007 Vijay
Prashad Martha
Rosenberg Manuel
Garcia, Jr. John
Ross Brian
McKenna Stephen
Soldz Monica
Benderman Ben
Terrall Website
of the Day
November 20, 2007 Oren
Ben-Dor Wajahat
Ali Alan
Farago Marjorie
Cohn Ralph
Nader Andy
Worthington Sara
Olson Dave
Lindorff Paul
Krassner Website
of the Day November 19, 2007 Winslow
T. Wheeler China
Hand Allan
Nairn Uri
Avnery David
Macaray Dave
Lindorff Bill
Quigley Ron
Jacobs Sunsara
Taylor Binoy
Kampmark Heather
Gray Website
of the Day
November 17 / 18, 2007 P.
Sainath David
Rosen Mike
Whitney George
Wuerthner Brenda
Norrell George
Ciccariello-Maher Karim
Makdisi Marie
Trigona Valerio
Volpi Fred
Gardner Robert
Fantina Mike
Ferner Missy
Comley Beattie Kenneth
Couesbouc Patrick
O'Hayer Poets'
Basement
November 16, 2007 Cockburn
/ St. Clair Dave
Zirin Gary
D. Barnett Alan
Farago Dave
Lindorff Russell
Mokhiber Robert
Ovetz Brenda
Norrell David
Swanson Peter
Letheby Website
of the Day
November 15, 2007 Cockburn
/ St. Clair Adolfo
Gilly Peter
Bohmer Andy
Worthington Gray
/ Derks Liaquat
Ali Khan Dave
Lindorff Christopher
Brauchli Anthony
Papa Martha
Rosenberg Ben
Terrall Website
of the Day
Cockburn
/ St. Clair James
Petras Al
Giordano Paul
Craig Roberts Andy
Worthington Stephen
Lendman Fatima
Bhutto Martin
Smith Jeff
Leys Website
of the Day November 13, 2007 Alexander
Cockburn Jeffrey
St. Clair Robert
Bryce David
Macaray Mike
Whitney Ralph
Nader Nikolas
Kozloff Jordan
Flaherty B.
R. Gowani Website
of the Day
November 12, 2007 Vicente
Navarro Ben
Brown Omar
K. Sadia
Abbas Farzana
Versey Richard
W. Behan Paul
Krassner Cindy
Sheehan Peter
Stone Brown Dave
Lindorff Website
of the Day
November 10 / 11, 2007 Alain
Gresh Mike
Whitney Ron
Jacobs Jeffrey
St. Clair Alan
Farago Binoy
Kampmark Robert
Fantina Fred
Gardner Ayesha
Ijaz Khan Nicola
Nasser Philip
Rizk Michael
Dickinson Joel
S. Hirschhorn Paul
Krassner Wadner
Pierre /
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December 17, 2007 The Coming Collapse of the Modern Day Banking SystemStaring Into the AbyssBy MIKE WHITNEY Stocks fell sharply last week on news of accelerating inflation which will limit the Federal Reserves ability to continue cutting interest rates. On Tuesday the Dow Jones Industrials tumbled 294 points following the Fed's announcement of a quarter point cut to the Fed Funds rate. On Friday, the Dow dipped another 178 points when government figures showed consumer prices had risen 0.8 per cent last month after a 0.3 per cent gain in October. The stock market is now lurching downward into a "primary bear market". There has been a steady deterioration in retail sales, commercial real estate, and the transports. The financial industry is going through a major retrenchment, losing more than 25 per cent in aggregate capitalization since July. The real estate market is collapsing. California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger announced on Friday that he will declare a "fiscal emergency" in January and ask for more power to deal with the $14 billion budget shortfall from the meltdown in subprime lending. Economists are beginning to
publicly acknowledge what many market analysts have suspected
for months; the nation's economy is going into a tailspin.
Most people have no idea how grave the present situation is or the disaster the country will face if trillions of dollars of over-leveraged bonds and equities begin to unwind. There's a widespread belief that the stewards of the system - Bernanke and Paulson - can somehow steer the economy through this "rough patch" into calm waters. But they cannot, and the presumption shows a basic misunderstanding of how markets work. The Fed has no magical powers and will not allow itself to be crushed by standing in the path of a market-avalanche. As foreclosures and bankruptcies increase; stocks will crash and the fed will step aside to safety. In the last few weeks, Bernanke and Paulson have tried a number of strategies that have failed. Paulson concocted a plan to help the major investment banks consolidate and repackage their nonperforming mortgage-backed junk into a "Super SIV" to give them another chance to unload their bad investments on the public. The plan was nothing more than a public relations ploy which has already been abandoned by most of the key participants. Paulson's involvement is a real black eye for the Dept of the Treasury. It makes it look like he's willing to dupe investors as long as it helps his d Wall Street buddies. Paulson also put together an "industry friendly" rate freeze that is supposed to help struggling homeowners avoid foreclosure. But the plan falls well short of providing any meaningful aid to the estimated 3.5 million homeowners who are facing the prospect of defaulting on their loans if they don't get government assistance. Recent estimates by industry experts say that Paulson's plan will only help 140,000 mortgage holders, leaving millions of others to fend for themselves. Paulson has proved over and over that he is just not up to the task of confronting an economic challenge of this magnitude head-on. Fed chief Bernanke hasn't done much better than Paulson. His three-quarter point cut to the Fed's Funds rate hasn't lowered interest rates on mortgages, stimulated greater home sales, stabilized the stock market or helped banks deal with their massive debt-load. It's been a flop from start to finish. All it's done is weaken the dollar and trigger a wave of inflation. In fact, government figures now show energy prices are rising at 18.1 per cent annually. Bernanke is apparently following Lenin's supposed injunction though there's no conclusive evidence he actually said it -- that "the best way to destroy the Capitalist System is to debauch the currency." On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve
initiated a "coordinated effort" with the Bank of Canada,
the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the and the Swiss
National Bank to address the "elevated pressures in short-term
funding of the markets." The Fed issued a statement that
"it will make up to $24 billion available to the European
Central Bank (ECB) and Swiss National Bank to increase the supply
of dollars in Europe." (Bloomberg) The Fed will also add
as much as $40 billion, via auctions, to increase cash in the
U.S. Bernanke is trying to loosen the knot that has tightened
Libor (London Interbank Offered Rate) rates in England and reduced
lending between banks. The slowdown is hobbling growth and could
send the world into a recessionary spiral. Bernanke's "master
plan" is little more than a cash giveaway to sinking banks.
It has scant chance of succeeding. The Fed is offering $.85 on
the dollar for mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) and collateralized
debt obligations (CDOs) that sold last week in the E*Trade liquidation
for $.27 on the dollar. At the same time, the Fed has promised
to keep the identities of the banks that are borrowing these
emergency funds secret from the public. The Fed is conducting
its business like a bookie. Staring Into the Abyss One of Britain's leading economists, Peter Spencer, issued a warning on Saturday:
Spencer is right. The banks don't have the money to loan to businesses or consumers because they're trying to raise more cash to meet their capital requirements on assets that continue to be downgraded. (The Fed may pay $.85 on the dollar, but investors are unwilling to pay anything at all.)Spencer correctly assumes that the reason the banks have stopped lending is not because they "distrust" other banks, but because they are capital-strapped from all their "off balance" sheets shenanigans. If the Basel regulations aren't modified, money markets will remain frozen, GDP will shrink, and there'll be a wave of bank closings. Spencer said:
Spencer confirms what we already knew; the banks are seriously under-capitalized and will come under growing pressure as hundreds of billions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) continue to lose value and have to be propped up with additional capital. The banks simply don't have the resources and there's going to be a day of reckoning. Pimco's Bill Gross put it like this: "What we are witnessing is essentially the breakdown of our modern day banking system." Gross is right, but he only covers a small portion of the problem. The economist Ludwig von Mises is more succinct in his analysis:
The basic problem originated with the Federal Reserve when former Fed chief Alan Greenspan lowered interest rates below the rate of inflation for 31 months straight which pumped trillions of dollars of low interest credit into the financial system and ignited a speculative frenzy in real estate. Greenspan has spent a great deal of time lately trying to avoid any blame for the catastrophe he created. He is a first-rate "buck passer". In Wednesday's Wall Street Journal, Greenspan scribbled out a 1,500-word defense of his actions as head of the Federal Reserve, pointing the finger at everything from China's "low cost workforce" to "the fall of the Berlin Wall". The essay was typical Greenspan gibberish. In his trademark opaque language; Greenspan tiptoes through the well-documented facts of his tenure as Fed chief to absolve himself of any personal responsibility for the ensuing disaster. Greenspan's apologia is a masterpiece of circuitous logic, deliberate evasion and utter denial of reality. He says:
"Not major"? 3.5 million potential foreclosures, 11-month inventory backlog, plummeting home prices, an entire industry in terminal distress pulling down the global economy is not major? But Greenspan is partially correct. The troubles in housing cannot be entirely attributed to the Fed's "cheap credit" monetary policies. They were also nursed along by a Doctrine of Deregulation which has permeated US capital markets since the Reagan era. Greenspan's views on how markets should function were -- to great extent -- shaped by this non-interventionist/non-supervisory ideology which has created enormous equity bubbles and imbalances. The former-Fed chief's support for adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) and subprime lending shows that Greenspan thought of himself as more as a cheerleader for the big market-players than an impartial referee whose job was to monitor reckless or unethical behavior. Greenspan also adds this revealing bit of information in his article:
This admission proves Greenspan's culpability. If he knew that stock prices had doubled their value in just 3 years, then he also knew that equities had not risen due to increases in productivity or demand.(market forces) The only reasonable explanation for the asset inflation, therefore, was monetary policy. As his own mentor, Milton Friedman famously stated, "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon". Any capable economist would have known that the explosion in housing and equities prices was a sign of uneven inflation. Now that the bubble has popped, inflation is spreading like mad through the entire economy. Greenspan is a very sharp man. It is crazy to think he didn't know what was going on. This is basic economic theory. Of course he knew why stocks and housing prices were skyrocketing. He was the one who put the dominoes in motion with the help of his printing press. But Greenspan's low interest credit is only part of the equation. The other part has to do with way that the markets have been transformed by "structured finance". What's so destructive about structured finance is that it allows the banks to create credit "out of thin air", stripping the Fed of its role as controller of the money supply. David Roache explains how this works in an excerpt from his book "New Monetarism" which appeared in the Wall Street Journal:
The banks have been creating trillions of dollars of credit (by originating mortgage-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations and asset-backed commercial paper) without maintaining the proportional capital reserves to back them up. That explains why the banks were so eager to provide mortgages to millions of loan applicants who had no documentation, no income, no collateral and a bad credit history. They believed there was no risk, because they were making enormous profits without tying up any of their capital. It was, quite literally, money for nothing. Now, unfortunately, the mechanism for generating new loans (and fees) has broken down. The main sources of bank revenue have either been seriously curtailed or dried up entirely. (Mortgage-backed) Commercial paper (ABCP) one such source of revenue, has decreased by a full-third (or $400 billion) in just 17 weeks. Also, the securitization of mortgage-backed securities is DOA. The market for MBSs and CDOs and other complex bonds has followed the Pterodactyl into the history books. The same is true of structured investment vehicles (SIVs) and other "off balance-sheet" swindles which have either gone under entirely or are presently withering with every savage downgrade in mortgage-backed bonds. The mighty juggernaut that was grinding out the hefty profits ("structured investments") has suddenly reversed and is crushing everything in its path. The banks don't have the reserves to cover their downgraded assets and the Federal Reserve cannot simply "monetize" their bad bets. There's no way out. There are bound to be bankruptcies and bank runs. "Structured finance" has usurped the Fed's authority to create new credit and handed it over to the banks. Now everyone will pay the price. Investors have lost their appetite
for risk and are steering clear of anything connected to real
estate or mortgage-backed bonds. That means that an estimated
$3 trillion of securitized debt (CDOs, MBSs and ASCP) will come
crashing to earth delivering a violent blow to the economy.
As the downgrades on CDOs and MBSs continue to accelerate, there'll likely be a frantic "flight to cash" by investors, just like the recent surge into US Treasuries. This could well be followed by a series of spectacular bank and non-bank defaults. The trillions of dollars of "virtual capital" that were miraculously created through securitzation when the market was buoyed-along by optimism will vanish in a flash when the market is driven by fear. In fact, the equity bubble has already been punctured and the process is well underway. Mike Whitney lives in Washington state. He can
be reached at: fergiewhitney@msn.com
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