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"Israel's strategy is
to establish positions as far north as possible to implement
a fighting withdrawal, meaning they will try to take on as much
of Hezbollah as they can as they work their way south. "
Ha'aretz editorial 8-17-06
"As long as there is Israeli
military movement, Israeli field aggression and Israeli soldiers
occupying our land, it is our natural right to fight them and
defend our lands, our homes, and ourselves."
Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, head
of the Lebanese armed resistance Hezbollah
Israel's sudden push to the Litani River
is a blatant act of political desperation intended to conceal
the humiliating defeat the IDF has suffered at the hands of Hezbollah.
It comes in the wake of a UN ceasefire agreement worked out by
friends of Israel in the Bush administration who were looking
for a diplomatic way for Olmert to climb down from Israel's greatest
debacle since the Yom Kippur war.
The so-called ceasefire is
tailored to stop the victims of Israeli aggression from defending
themselves, but provides the IDF with a go-ahead to continue
their rampage. Such is the Kafkaesque logic of the United Nations
and their puppet-masters in Tel Aviv.
There is no longer any reasonable
expectation that Israel will accomplish any of its stated objectives.
The mighty IDF has been slapped around by a handful of tough-minded
guerillas who kept Israel pinned-down to within a 5 mile radius
of the northern border for a full month. It is probably one of
the greatest triumphs in the history of asymmetrical warfare.
Hezbollah will not be "disarmed"
as Ehud Olmert boasted just weeks ago. Instead, their fortunes
look to be steadily improving as Israel continues to flail about
dropping bombs indiscriminately on critical infrastructure and
civilians with impunity. The conflict has simply reinforced widely-held
suspicions that the Jewish State is a loose-cannon ready to go
berserk at the slightest provocation.
Prime Minister Olmert, Defense
Minister Peretz and Chief of Staff Dan Halutz have been the brunt
of withering criticism in the Israeli press, and for good reason.
They are, quite possibly, the worst collection of bunglers in
Israeli history; the political equivalent of the "3 Stooges".
Sharon may have been a war criminal, but he was an astute strategist.
Olmert and "wrongway" Halutz are completely clueless.
As soon as it was decided that the war could not be won militarily,
Halutz charged up the Litani River backed by thousands ground-troops
afraid that his chances for glory were quickly ebbing-away. In
the process, another 31 soldiers were killed in a campaign that
still has no clearly defined objectives. Meanwhile, Shaul Mofaz,
the only Israeli general who could probably transform the current
disaster into something resembling "a draw"; is left
sitting on the sidelines.
What a fiasco.
Now that the ceasefire has
been approved, the politicians and the generals are stumbling
over themselves trying to cobble together the victory that has
escaped them for the last 4 weeks. Olmert and co. know that as
soon as the dust settles they will face an irate Israeli public
looking for someone to hold accountable for the debacle. Ha'aretz
op-ed writer Ari Shavit summed up the public mood this way:
"One thing should be clear:
If Olmert runs away now from the war he initiated, he will not
be able to remain prime minister for even one more day. Chutzpah
has its limits. You cannot lead an entire nation to war promising
victory, produce humiliating defeat and remain in power. You
cannot bury 120 Israelis in cemeteries, keep a million Israelis
in shelters for a month, wear down deterrent power, bring the
next war very close, and then say, oooops, I made a mistake."
Columnist Moshe Arens added
to Shavit's critique saying, "The task facing Israel now
is to restore its deterrent posture and prepare for the attacks
that are sure to come. But not with this leadership. They have
exhausted whatever little credit they had when they were voted
into office."
The anger that is growing in
Israel is self-serving and has nothing to do with the vast devastation
the IAF has visited on battered Lebanon.
Lebanon is in ruins. The country's
main bridges, roads, industries, ports, canals, telecommunications,
oil depots, water facilities and factories have been buried by
a steady barrage of Israeli precision guided munitions. George
Bush can be credited with a large part of the damage. He rushed
an order of high-tech bombs to his friends in Tel Aviv to make
sure that the slaughter would continue without interruption.
He also blocked the ceasefire resolutions at the UN which allowed
Israel to continue its withering bombardment of Lebanon.
The UN ceasefire agreement
was clearly written in close collaboration with Israel. It allows
the IDF to continue "defensive operations" while Hezbollah
is required to stop fighting. Israel interprets this as a green
light for aggressively pursuing Hezbollah.
According to Israeli daily
newspaper Ha'aretz, "The army will stop its offensive as
soon as it is ordered to do so by the political leadership and
later it will begin to retrace its steps to uncover any pockets
of resistance that may remain in the area." With troops
presently located at the Litani River that means that military
operations could persist for months throughout the entire south.
If that's the case, the ceasefire is nothing more than a Trojan
Horse for Israeli occupation.
Israel is at war with itself.
It's trying to produce a victory where victory is impossible.
With less than 24 hours until the ceasefire goes into effect,
they've unleashed a massive aerial assault bombing more than
50 cities and towns north and south of the Litani River. The
bombing campaign drew the immediate censure of Kofi Annan who
said that the attack was not in keeping with the spirit of the
ceasefire.
No matter. Israel will keep
firing away; savaging what little is left of Lebanon's tattered
infrastructure in the vain hope that they might patch together
something that resembles success, but to what affect? Hezbollah
may be badly damaged and its supply-lines ruptured, but they
merely need to hang on to generate a reliable stream of new recruits
and to win plaudits from around the world for standing up to
the IDF.
Prime Minister Olmert seems
ambivalent about the sudden escalation just prior to the ceasefire.
The war appears to be in the hands of the generals with Olmert
acting as a mere figurehead. The uproar in the media has left
him vacillating and hesitant; searching for other solutions besides
a quick withdrawal. He looks like a man grabbing at straws, hoping
for some sign that Hezbollah is weakening and events are beginning
to turn around. Meanwhile the IDF casualties continue to mount
and the collective angst of the Israeli public becomes more palpable.
As for Sheik Nasrallah, he
has resisted the usual inflammatory rhetoric and demonstrated
Hezbollah's lethal proficiency on the battlefield where it counts.
The guerillas have matched the IDF man-for-man and forced the
world's 4th most powerful army into a stalemate.
In the early days of the war,
Nasrallah described Hezbollah's abilities in modest terms:
"We are not a classic
army extending form the sea to Mt Hermon. We are a popular and
serious resistance movement that is present in many areas and
axes. Our equation and principles are the following: When the
Israelis enter, they must pay dearly in terms of their tanks,
officers, and soldiers. That is what we pledge to do and we will
honor our pledge, God willing".
Olmert should memorize this
passage. Its a window into Nasrallah's war-plans in simple but
lucid prose. These are realistic, achievable objectives, unlike
Israel's. That's why he will probably prevail if he perseveres.
Nasrallah does not entertain the foolish idea that he will overwhelm
the IDF or invade Israel. He simply plans to gnaw away day by
day, hour by hour, at the occupying army forcing them eventually
to retreat. He is a shrewd student of asymmetrical warfare and
grasps how to exploit the vulnerabilities of a regular army as
well as Israeli public opinion (which is already souring on the
conflict)
Nasrallah has said that he
will abide by the terms of the ceasefire, but will not disarm
until the Lebanese Army and the UN forces are in place and the
IDF has left Lebanese soil. It is pointless to talk about disarmament
now when Hezbollah is the only force capable of defending Lebanon
from foreign invasion.
Will Hezbollah willingly disarm
after Israel leaves?
That is what Israel wonders,
but it is the wrong question. The real question is: What are
the chances that the IDF will reinvade sometime in the future
as they have 4 times before? And, who will provide the weaponry
that will create a viable deterrent to Israeli aggression so
that Lebanon can live in peace?
Nasrallah's promises to disarm
mean nothing. His primary responsibility is to his own people,
to protect their right to live free of Israeli violence and occupation.
If Sheik Nasrallah chooses
to disarm and put his faith in Israel's assurances of non aggression,
that's his choice. But he should pay close attention to the treatment
of the Palestinians in Gaza before he sets his rifle down.
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