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November
13, 2006
Out with the Old, In With the Old
The
Revolving Gates at the Pentagon
By Col. DAN SMITH
The change in control of both houses
of Congress was not the only bad news for George Bush. The day
after the election, he announced the resignation of Donald Rumsfeld
as secretary of defense and the nomination of Robert Gates as
his successor.
Coming just a week after the
president told reporters that he wanted Rumsfeld to stay for
the duration of his tenure in the White House, the change in
the Pentagon's civilian head caught many by surprise. There was
also a lot of relief. In the European parliament, 200 socialist
deputies hailed "the beginning of the end of a six-year
nightmare for the world."
Not necessarily. Changing personalities
at the Pentagon does not necessarily mean that policy will change.
In fact, Bush stated flatly that the goal is still "victory"-an
Iraq that can defend itself from terrorists and the meddling
of it neighbors, provide basic services for its people, and is
fully integrated into the world economy.
So the question really is whether
Robert Gates can offer a different direction-and whether Bush
will listen?
Confirming
Gates
First, however, the Senate
will hold confirmation hearings for Gates, who currently is president
of Texas A&M. Gates, no stranger to Washington, knows the
process well. In 1966, after two years in the Air Force working
with intercontinental ballistic missiles, he joined the Central
Intelligence Agency (CIA) as a Soviet analyst. He rose rapidly
through the ranks until President Reagan appointed him deputy
director of the CIA in 1986. One year later, he faced confirmation
hearings to replace William Casey as director of the CIA.
In the meantime, however, the
Iran-Contra scandal had blown wide open. A special prosecutor
was investigating grounds for criminal indictments and Congress
was holding extensive hearings. Many in Congress and in the nation
were skeptical of Gates' claim that, until very late in the action,
he was largely "out of the loop." The sale of weapons
and spare parts to Iran and the diversion of the proceeds to
the Nicaraguan Contras was a major operation. Even if directly
orchestrated by Casey and Oliver North of the National Security
Council staff, Gates most likely knew something of the scheme.
That Casey and the CIA were directly aiding and abetting the
Contras to overthrow the Sandinista government of Daniel Ortega
only fueled suspicions.
Facing an uphill confirmation
battle, Gates withdrew his name. He remained deputy director
of the CIA until 1989 when he joined the National Security Council.
There he stayed through the 1991 war that ousted Saddam Hussein
from Kuwait. In March 1991, President George H. W. Bush nominated
Gates (for a second time) to be head of the CIA. The Senate confirmed
Gates in early November of that year, and he served until 1993.
When he appears before the
Senate Armed Services Committee for confirmation hearings to
be secretary of defense, Gates will see some familiar faces from
his past, especially if the hearings take place in the lame duck
session. Among those who spoke against the nominee in 1991 are
current members such as Carl Levin and Edward Kennedy.
They may well resurrect the
charges lodged against Gates in 1987 and in 1991. They may ask
him again whether he lied to Congress about the extent of his
involvement in or knowledge of Iran-Contra. They may want to
know whether the CIA, under his watch, altered national intelligence
estimates on Soviet capabilities to make the threat seem worse
than warranted. Their questioning might probe his involvement
in providing military equipment and intelligence to Saddam Hussein
during the 1980-1988 Iraq-Iran War, all of which helped Saddam
in his battles against U.S. forces in 1991 in Operation Desert
Storm. More broadly, Gates may be held to account once again
for the CIA's failure to predict the demise of the Soviet Union,
the lack of monitoring of Saddam's progress toward developing
a nuclear weapon in the 1980s, and the "politicizing"
of intelligence to support presidential biases.
Anything
but Rummy
Whether the U.S. Senate, in
the upcoming lame-duck session controlled by the Republicans,
will try to push through abbreviated hearings and confirm Gates
as soon as possible or leave that task for the new Senate remains
unclear. Regardless, even though he's been out of government
service for a dozen years except to serve on special commissions
such as the current Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group, Gates will
most likely be confirmed if for no other reason than the
Democrats are eager to have anyone other than Donald Rumsfeld
as secretary of defense.
The real test will be whether
the change at the Pentagon and the change in Congress will produce
any significant alteration in U.S. strategy in Iraq and Afghanistan.
At the very least, the U.S. public has expressed its dissatisfaction
with the war choices of the administration and Congress. Needed
now is planning for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq.
And the United States must begin to prepare itself psychologically
for the day that Iraqis actually assume the full burden of devising
a political solution that will be fair and workable for all Iraqi
citizens.
On this point, the public will
quickly glimpse just how Gates will fit in with other administration
players. There may be White House pressure to implement the recommendations
of the Iraq Study Group-due out December 7-no questions asked.
Gates will have to take a principled stand, if warranted, or
be seen as "politicizing" the war.
Mr. Gates, should he be confirmed,
has his work cut out for him-as does the new Congress. And neither
has time to waste.
Col.Dan Smith is a military affairs analyst
for Foreign Policy In Focus,
a retired U.S. Army colonel, and a senior fellow on military
affairs at the Friends Committee on National Legislation. Email
at dan@fcnl.org
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