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Today's
Stories
August
10, 2007
Paul
Craig Roberts
China's Threat to the Dollar is Real
Daniel
Ellsberg
A Vision for Cindy Sheehan's Campaign
August
9, 2007
Stan
Goff
The Fog of Fame: Pat Tillman as Everyone's
Political Football
Paul
Craig Roberts
In the Hole to China
Alan
Farago
The Terror of the Mortgage Pools
William
S. Lind
The Surge's New Math: One Step Forward,
Two Back
Doug
Giebel
Letter from Montana: What the Bushvolk
Have Done to America
Harvey
Wasserman
Radioactive Bailout in Advance
Jacob
Hill
The Tail End of Free Trade: NAFTA's
Impact on the Manufacturing Sector
Raul
Zibechi
The Dark Side of Agrofuels
Dave
Zirin
The Making of Barry bin Laden
Website
of the Day
"Babies Just Come with the
Scenery"
August
8, 2007
Andy
Worthington
Backing Up Lt. Col. Abraham on
Gitmo Abuse
Jeff
Halper
The Catch in Israel's "Generous
Offers" at Jericho
Greg
Moses
No Light in August for Texas Refugees:
Judge Orders Baby Sent to Palestine
Nurit
Peled-Elhanan
The Murder of Abir Aramin, 9 Years
Old
Sukant
Chandan
British Prisons as Islamic Universities
Robert
Fisk
A Lebanese Surprise
George
H. Strauss
The Military Society
D.K.
Wilson
Bonds, the Haters and 756: Why Bob
Costas Can't be Trusted
Bill
Day
Leonardo DiCaprio's Baggage: the Perils
of Celebrity Environmentalism
Tim
Campbell
Monkey See, Monkey Do Politics
Website
of the Day
Periodic
Table of Visualization Methods
August
7, 2007
Patrick
Cockburn
Why the Surge Has Failed
Andy
Worthington
Why Do We Need the Democrats?:
They Have Failed to Restrain Bush on Gitmo, Iraq and Domestic Spying
Kathy
Kelly
The Little Girl of Hiroshima
Stan
Cox
The Antiwar Majority: Look Quickly, You
Might Miss It
Sonja
Karkar
Israel's Settlement Project
Sen.
Russ Feingold
A License to Wiretap--Anyone
Alan
Farago
Dancing in the Light of Florida
Norman
Solomon
Let Us Now Praise an Infamous Woman
Binoy
Kampmark
Giving Good Face: What Jeremy Bentham
and Facebook Have in Common
Dave
Lindorff
The Gelding Congress
John
Stauber
Coffee with the Troops at Yearly
Kos
Website
of the Day
George Carlin
on Education
August
6, 2007
Bill
Quigley
Fighting for the Right to Learn in
New Orleans
Kathy
Rentenbach
Guatemalan Gold, Guatemalan Bones
Uri
Avnery
White Elephants: Bush's Middle East
Arms Deals
Col.
Dan Smith
Of Time and Iraq
Ralph
Nader
Cruise Ship Blues
James
Neshewat
War? What War?: a Report from the
New SDS Confab in Detroit
D.K.
Wilson
Barry, Bud and 755
Greg
Moses
Safe Passage for Willie Nelson
Fidel
Castro
Hard and Obvious Realities
Mike
Whitney
Judgment Week on Wall Street
August
4 / 5, 2007
Alexander
Cockburn
Rupert Murdoch and the Luck of the
Bancrofts
Peter
Linebaugh
Speaking in Irish Tongues
Saul
Landau
Faith-Based War
Alan
Farago
The Candidates and the Collapsing
Economy
Dave
Zirin
When Domes Attack: Even in Minnesota
Barucha
Calamity Peller
Oaxaca is Not Over
Anthony
DiMaggio
Double Standards in U.S. Aid to
the Middle East
Dave
Lindorff
Spy Power: Bush Demands, Democrats
Deliver--Again and Again and Again
Fred
Gardner
Write Off Your Congressman
Nicola
Nasser
The Iranian Option
Benjamin
Dangl
Privatizing Repression in Paraguay
Rannie
Amiri
Bribe, Divide and Conquer
Daniel
Gross
CSR on Trial: Starbucks Behind the
Brand
Sherwood
Ross
Obama Renounces Use of Nuclear Weapons
Manuel
Garcia, Jr
A Bridge Truth Movement?: From 9/11
to Minneapolis
Missy
Beattie
The First Mannequin and the "Crime
Scene"
Ron
Jacobs
The Outlaw Trip to Mexico: Goin' Down
the Road Feelin' Bad
Website
of the Weekend
Photos: Texas Immigrant
Prison
August
3, 2007
Gabriel
Matthew Schivone
An Interview with Noam Chomsky on
Responsibility, War Guilt and Intellectuals
Jonathan
Cook
Israel's Jewish Problem in Tehran
Patrick
Cockburn
Sunnis Walk Out of Iraq Government
Little
Steven Van Zandt
Die, Greedy Swine! Die! Die!:
How the Record Companies are Killing Rock Music
Christopher
Brauchli
Bush Makes Putin Look Like James
Madison
D.
K. Wilson
Two Sides and a Middle: Michael Vick
Ain't the One to Ask
Linda
Ford and Ira Glunts
Maxwell's Silver Hammer: Syracuse University
Enlists in the Global War on Terror
Kelly
Overton
The Casualties of Green Scare: the
Feds' War on the Animal Rights Mvt.
Monica
Benderman
In Freedom's Name
Manuel
Garcia, Jr.
Minneapolis Bridge Collapse: Was Cheney
at the Scene?
Website
of the Day
A
Cinematic Look at the Police State in Action
August 2, 2007
Paul
Craig Roberts
The Return of the Robber Barons
Stanley Heller
Report from the Land of Apartheid
Eric
Ruder
Fighting PTSD; Fighting the Army
Robert
Fantina
Still Getting It Wrong: the NYT and
Iraq
Alan
Farago
The Toxic Mortgage Waste Crisis
Chris
Floyd
Chertoff, Chiquita and Death Squads
Franklin
Lamb
Lebanon's Crucial Special Elections
Sen.
Russ Feingold
Closing the Book on the Abramoff
Era
Anthony
Papa
Drug Treatment isn't a Silver Bullet
Norman
Solomon
The Big Guns of August
Website
of the Day
Louie, Louie Video Contest
August 1, 2007
Debbie Nathan
More Secret Payments by Former NYT
Reporter to Web Porn Star Surface in Nashville Courtroom
Fred Gardner
Ciao, Michelangelo
Gary
Leupp
Why Iraq's Best-Loved Athlete Can't
Go Home
David
Rosen
America's Top 10 Political Sex Scandals
Winston
Warfield
Is the Tillman Case Still a Coverup?
Daniel
McBride
Lessons from Bomber Harris: If the
US Strikes Pakistan
Glen
Ford
The Corporate Plan to Crush Black Resistance
Thomas
P. Healy
The Toxic Career of Indiana's Environmental
Commissioner
John
V. Whitbeck
The Five Percent Solution
David
Krieger
Nuclear Weapons and the University
of California
Website
of the Day
The Tragic Story of Hisham
Mohammed
July 31, 2007
Kathy
Kelly
Dancing in the Darkness: the Story
of Abu Mahmoud
Clancy Sigal
The Ghosts of Passchendaele
Paul Krassner
Assholes of the Week: From Baby
Doll to Cheney
Joe
DeRaymond
Return to the Republic of Death?
Diane
Christian
"Winning": What Bush
Could Learn from the Shade of Achilles
Chris
Floyd
Good News is No News: Why the Bush
Adm. Buries Accounts of Extremist Recantations
Ramzy
Baroud
Bush's Real Agenda in Palestine
Alan
Farago
Battle for the Soul of Florida
Fidel
Castro
In Spite of Everything: Reflections
on the Pan American Games
Dan
Bacher
The Fish Terminator: Schwarzenegger's
Campaign to Build the Delta Canal and More Dams
July 30, 2007
Marjorie Cohn: Independent Counsel
Time
Patrick Cockburn
Four Million Iraqis on the Run
Peter Quinn
Irish in America
Uri Avnery
A Warning to Tony Blair
John Ross
Zapatista Intergalatica Lands on Earth
Ron
Jacobs
Free the San Francisco 8
David
Vest
Farewell,
Old Friend: Another Legend of the Blues is Gone
Jeffrey
St. Clair
T99 Nelson: Seduced by a Legend of the
Blues
Website
of the Day
Collateral Repair
Project
July
28 / 29, 2007
Alexander
Cockburn
Now the NYT is Selling "Bloodbath"
as a Rationale to Stay in Iraq
Ralph
Nader
Rotten Justice
Robert
Fantina
American Lies and Iraqi Nationalism
Fred
Gardner
Prohibitionists Attack, Reformers
Fundraise
Yves
Engler
Handwashing and the Bottomline
July
27, 2007
John
Ross
Bombing Pemex--or Not?
Arthur
Neslen
Gaza was a Gas for Blair
Dave
Lindorff
Declaring the US a Battlefield: Martial Law is Now a Real
Threat
Julene
Blair
The Environmentalist Within
Christopher
Brauchli
Bush Uses Children as Shock Troops in His War on Socialized Medicine
Jesse
Hagopian
Fund the Wounded, Not the War
Charles
Modiano
Manufacturing a Villain: Sports Illustrated's Vilification of
Barry Bonds
Bill
Day
The Hollow Environmentalism of Leonardo DiCaprio
Walter
Brasch
Leaders Afraid to Lead
M.D.
Mitchell
Farm Based Camps
Website
of the Day
Fighting Sarcoma
July
26, 2007
Kathleen
Christison
The Siren Song of Elliot Abrams
Andy
Worthington
Why the Pentagon's Gitmo Study is a Joke
Clancy
Chassay
How the Bush White House Seeks to Destroy Lebanon
Marjorie
Cohn
Showdown Over Executive Privilege
Susie
Day
Apartheid Americana
David
Price
Tour de Witch Hunt: Drugs, Diaries and Purges
Marie
Trigona
Argentina's "Dirty War" Crimes Trial: The Torturer
Priest
Norman
Solomon
Media Spin on Iraq: We're Leaving (Sort Of)
William
S. Lind
How to Win in Iraq
Natsu
Saito
Ward Churchill and the Regents at the University of Colorado
John
Stauber
Netroots and the Iraq War: Does Ending It Matter to Them Anymore?
Website
of the Day
Sticking It to the Man
July
25, 2007
Andy
Worthington
Gains and Losses at Gitmo
Gary
Leupp
Bush Speechwriter, Michael Gerson, Calls for Attack on Syria
Ray
McGovern
The Sad Decline of John Conyers
Dr.
Susan Block
Bonobo Bashing in the New Yorker
Joshua
Frank
Hillary's Neocon: the Imperial Vision of Richard Holbrooke
Tina
Richards
What Harry Reid Doesn't Know About His Own Bill
Ben
Terrall
Indonesia's Bloody Brand of CounterTerrorism
Farzana
Versey
God Acquitted!: Lessons from the Case of Darwood Ibrahim
Mohammad
Ali Salih
A Bomb in My Briefcase?
Laura
Carlsen
A Strange Homecoming: Reflections on the First US Social Forum
Ron
Jacobs
Come to Kennebunkport!
Sunsara
Taylor
Knocked Up is F**ked Up
Website
of the Day
Wal-Mart's Flip Flops: Feet Killers
July 24, 2007
Saul
Landau
How to Walk in Bushtime
Kathy
Kelly
The Plight of Iraqi Refugees in Jordan
Russell
Mokhiber
The Michael Vick / George Bush Thing
M.
Shahid Alam
Islam Now, China Then
Patrick
Cockburn and Anne Penketh
Meeting in Baghdad
Dave
Lindorff
Overcoming John Conyers
Binoy
Kampmark
You Tube You Can't: Failure of a Medium
Richard
Neville
Murdoch's Transplant: a Warning to the Wall Street Journal
Cindy
Sheehan
We Must Move Beyond Politics as Usual
Evelyn
Pringle
Anti-Depressants and Birth Defects: Why is the CDC Downplaying
the Risks?
Norman
Solomon
Media Corrections We'd Like to See
CP
Newswire
Reading Harry Potter Not Sinful
Website
of the Day
Sea Islands Black Heritage Festival
July
23, 2007
Andy
Worthington
Narcolepsy on Gitmo Detainees
Uri
Avnery
A Trap for Fools
Patrick
Cockburn
Turkish Prime Minister Threatens to Invade Northern Iraq
Sousan
Hammad
The Children Without a Title
John
Walsh
Todd Gitlin's Nader Fixation
Harvey
Wasserman
Spinning Kashiwazaki: PR Flacks Rush to Aid of Crippled Nuke
Martha
Rosenberg
The Life and Times of a Hog-Hanging Farmer
Collin Baber
Here
Come the MRAPs: Resurrecting Apartheid Armor for Iraq
Reza
Fiyouzat
Iran's Forgotten Anti-Nuke Movement
Stephen
Lendman
Saving a President: Scare-Mongering and Executive Orders
Website
of the Day
The Port Huron Project
July
21 / 22, 2007
Alexander
Cockburn
Giuliani and the Dogs of War
Werther
How to Read a National Intelligence
Estimate
Ralph
Nader
Atomic Blowback
David
Keen
Buy Hard: How to Sell an Endless War
Fred
Gardner
Karl Rove, Pothead: When Good Drugs Happen to Bad People
Gary
Leupp
Edelman's Edict: Is Hillary "Reinforcing Enemy Propaganda?"
Robert
Fantina
Fear in Iraq
Saker
The Future of Palestine: an Interview with Jonathan Cook
Rannie
Amiri
Nasrallah in the Crosshairs: How will the Third Lebanon War Start?
Mike
Whitney
The Crisis in Hedgistan
Dr.
Susan Rosenthal, MD
The Hidden Injuries of Powerlessness: Linking Alienation and
Dissociation
Monica
Benderman
Facing the Truth
Dan
Bacher
Deltagate: the Politics of Fish Kills
Michael
Baney
Fujimori's Long Race From Justice
Missy
Beattie
Here, There and Everywhere
Ron
Jacobs
Tremble, Tyrants
Adam
Engel
Radical Language: an Introduction
Thomas
Naylor
California Split: an Open Letter to Schwarzenegger
Poets'
Basement
Landau, Ford and Engel
Website
of the Weekend
Surge in Action
July
20, 2007
Eliza
Szabo
Fatal Neglect: Civilian Casualties
in Afghanistan
Pam
Martens
Doctoring the News: CNN's Sanjay Gupta, Laura Bush and Merck
Alan
Farago
Winners and Losers in the Housing Market Crash
Harvey
Wasserman
Lies and Leaks: The Earthquake That Screamed "No Nukes!"
Marjorie
Cohn
Iraqis will be the Deciders
Dave
Zirin
White Noise and the Black Athlete
Anthony
DiMaggio
American Public Opinion and Israel
Scott
Liebertz
Oaxaca on Edge
Linn
Washington, Jr.
British Cops Assault Rape Allegations
Bill
Piper / Anthony Papa
Flying High?: The Political Junkets of Bush's Drug Czar
Ramzy
Baroud
Bush's War Policy: When Time Heals Nothing
Website
of the Day
The Prankster Art of Mark Jenkins
July
19, 2007
Patrick
Cockburn
The Next Invasion of Iraq
Remi
Kanazi
Is This Ben Gurion or Hell?: a Palestinian Adventure Through
Israel's Largest Airport
Winslow
T. Wheeler
The Surging Costs of the Iraq War
Sharon
Smith
Democrats and Health Care: Behind the Rhetoric
Dave
Lindorff
Killing Cabbies in Iraq
Conn
Hallinan
Have Gun, Will Travel: Mercenaries in Iraq and Afghanistan
D.
K. Wilson
The Michael Vick Case Pulls Back the Veil on Who We Really Are
Joshua
Frank
Democrats as Leviathan: Another Step Toward War with Iran
Norman
Solomon
The Ghost of Wayne Morse
Russell
Hoffman
Rattling the Reactor: Quakes, Fires and Leaks at the World's
Largest Nuke
Ray
McGovern
Bush's Wooden Headedness Kills
Website
of the Day
Protesting Power
July
18, 2007
Brenda
Norrell
Spy Towers on the US Border
Col.
Dan Smith
How the US Could "Lose" Saudi
Arabia
Martha
Rosenberg
Lord of Crookharbour: the Trial of Conrad Black
Conn
Hallinan
Bombing and Spraying Afghanistan
Binoy
Kampmark
The SIM Card Terror Case
Patrick
Bond /
Rehana Dada
Who Killed Sajida Khan?
Tom
Johnson
The Long Road ... to Nowhere
Paul
Craig Roberts
A Free Press or a Ministry of Truth?
Bob
Quellos
Pushing the Poor Out of House and Home
Felice
Pace
Falling for Lieberman's Iran Resolution
Robert
Weissman
National Health Insurance: More Humane and More Efficient
CP
Newswire
Shocking Report Showing Involvement of US Psychologists in Torture
Website
of the Day
Gilad Atzmon Live!
July
17, 2007
Patrick
Cockburn
Just Another Day in Iraq: 100 Fathers,
Mothers and Children Killed
Marjorie
Cohn
Out of Control: Executive Power Plays
Evelyn
Pringle
Inside Bush's FDA
David
Rosen
Moral Hypocrisy on the Hill: the Christian Right, Sexual Scandal
and the Pleasures of the Courtesan
Susan
Miller
Width Matters: Displacement and Israel's Wall
Franklin
Lamb
Did the UN Cave to Israel on Lebanon's Shabaa Farms?
Don
Monkerud
Considering Victory in Iraq
Harvey
Wasserman
Nuclear Surge
Russell
Hoffman
Japan Dodges a Radioactive Bullet
Dave
Lindorff
Feingold Turns to Dross
Dave
Zirin
Reclaiming Sports as True Fiction
Website
of the Day
Che at the UN: 1964
July
16, 2007
Gary
Leupp
Cheney Urges Bush to Strike Iran
Ellen
Cantarow
The Untold Story of Iraqi Women
Paul
Craig Roberts
Impeach Now
Allan
J. Lichtman
The D.C. Madam's Public Service
Dan
Bacher
Cheney and the Klamath: Was the Veep Behind the Nation's Worst
Salmon Kill?
Patrick
Cockburn
The Killing of Khalid W. Hassan
Manuel
Garcia, Jr.
Property is Racism
James
Brooks
AIPAC and Mahmoud Abbas: the Undemocratic Road to Defeat
Liaquat
Ali Khan
The Judicial Crisis in Pakistan
Julie
Flint
Suleiman Jamous in Limbo
Website
of the Day
Free Suleiman Jamous!
July
14 / 15. 2007
Alexander
Cockburn
Support Their Troops?
Andy
Worthington
Gitmo's Tangled Web: Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Majhid Khan, Dubious
US Convictions and a Dying Man
Ralph
Nader
Lawlessness, Waste and Incompetence
Robert
Fantina
The Illegalities of the Iraq War
Ron
Jacobs
Architecture as Military Strategy
Joshua
Frank
Eat, Fight, Screw, Pray: An Interview with Joe Bageant
Conn
Hallinan
Guns, Foundations and Free Trade: How the Right Targets Africa
Dr.
Susan Rosenthal, MD
War and Dissociation
John
Ross
No En Nuestro Nombre!: a Letter to the Mexican Antiwar Movement
Fred
Gardner
Who's Afraid of Cannabidiol?
Rannie
Amiri
A Primer on Israeli Doublespeak
Charles
Modiano
ESPN's Rap Sheet: Pacman as Black Man
Anthony
DiMaggio
America's Parochial Press
China
Hand
Executive Orders and Coercive Diplomacy
Missy
Comley Beattie
Reprobate Rhetoricians
Dr.
James J. Murtagh, Jr.
Harry Potter Battles Big Brother
Kenneth
Rexroth
On Thomas More's "Utopia"
Poets'
Basement
Engel, Davies and Orloski
Website
of the Weekend
GOP Sex Hypocrites: a Slideshow
| August
9, 2007
One
Big Reason Markets are Plunging
China's
Threat to the Dollar is Real
By PAUL
CRAIG ROBERTS
Twenty-four
hours after I reported China’s
announcement that China, not the Federal Reserve, controls US
interest rates by its decision to purchase, hold, or dump US Treasury
bonds, the news of the announcement appeared in sanitized and unthreatening
form in a few US news sources.
The
Washington Post found an economics professor at the University of
Wisconsin to provide reassurances that it was “not really
a credible threat” that China would intervene in currency
or bond markets in any way that could hurt the dollar’s value
or raise US interest rates, because China would hurt its own pocketbook
by such actions.
US
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, just back from Beijing, where
he gave China orders to raise the value of the Chinese yuan “without
delay,” dismissed the Chinese announcement as “frankly
absurd.”
Both
the professor and the Treasury Secretary are greatly mistaken.
First,
understand that the announcement was not made by a minister or vice
minister of the government. The Chinese government is inclined to
have important announcements come from research organizations that
work closely with the government. This announcement came from two
such organizations. A high official of the Development Research
Center, an organization with cabinet rank, let it be known that
US financial stability was too dependent on China’s financing
of US red ink for the US to be giving China orders. An official
at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences pointed out that the reserve
currency status of the US dollar was dependent on China’s
good will as America’s lender.
What
the two officials said is completely true. It is something that
some of us have known for a long time. What is different is that
China publicly called attention to Washington’s dependence
on China’s good will. By doing so, China signaled that it
was not going to be bullied or pushed around.
The
Chinese made no threats. To the contrary, one of the officials said,
“China doesn’t want any undesirable phenomenon in the
global financial order.” The Chinese message is different.
The message is that Washington does not have hegemony over Chinese
policy, and if matters go from push to shove, Washington can expect
financial turmoil.
Paulson
can talk tough, but the Treasury has no foreign currencies with
which to redeem its debt. The way the Treasury pays off the bonds
that come due is by selling new bonds, a hard sell in a falling
market deserted by the largest buyer.
Paulson
found solace in his observation that the large Chinese holdings
of US Treasuries comprise only “one day’s trading volume
in Treasuries.” This is a meaningless comparison. If the supply
suddenly doubled, does Paulson think the price of Treasuries would
not fall and the interest rate not rise? If Paulson believes that
US interest rates are independent of China’s purchases and
holdings of Treasuries, Bush had better quickly find himself a new
Treasury Secretary.
Now
let’s examine the University of Wisconsin economist’s
opinion that China cannot exercise its power because it would result
in losses on its dollar holdings. It is true that if China were
to bring any significant percentage of its holdings to market, or
even cease to purchase new Treasury issues, the prices of bonds
would decline, and China’s remaining holdings would be worth
less. The question, however, is whether this is of any consequence
to China, and, if it is, whether this cost is greater or lesser
than avoiding the cost that Washington is seeking to impose on China.
American
economists make a mistake in their reasoning when they assume that
China needs large reserves of foreign exchange. China does not need
foreign exchange reserves for the usual reasons of supporting its
currency’s value and paying its trade bills. China does not
allow its currency to be traded in currency markets. Indeed, there
are not enough yuan available to trade. Speculators, betting on
the eventual rise of the yuan’s value, are trying to capture
future gains by trading “virtual yuan.” The other reason
is that China does not have foreign trade deficits, and does not
need reserves in other currencies with which to pay its bills. Indeed,
if China had creditors, the creditors would be pleased to be paid
in yuan as the currency is thought to be undervalued.
Despite
China’s support of the Treasury bond market, China’s
large holdings of dollar-denominated financial instruments have
been depreciating for some time as the dollar declines against other
traded currencies, because people and central banks in other countries
are either reducing their dollar holdings or ceasing to add to them.
China’s dollar holdings reflect the creditor status China
acquired when US corporations offshored their production to China.
Reportedly, 70 per cent of the goods on Wal-Mart’s shelves
are made in China. China has gained technology and business knowhow
from the US firms that have moved their plants to China. China has
large coastal cities, choked with economic activity and traffic,
that make America’s large cities look like country towns.
China has raised about 300 million of its population into higher
living standards, and is now focusing on developing a massive internal
market some 4 to 5 times more populous than America’s.
The
notion that China cannot exercise its power without losing its US
markets is wrong. American consumers are as dependent on imports
of manufactured goods from China as they are on imported oil. In
addition, the profits of US brand name companies are dependent on
the sale to Americans of the products that they make in China. The
US cannot, in retaliation, block the import of goods and services
from China without delivering a knock-out punch to US companies
and US consumers. China has many markets and can afford to lose
the US market easier than the US can afford to lose the American
brand names on Wal-Mart’s shelves that are made in China.
Indeed, the US is even dependent on China for advanced technology
products. If truth be known, so much US production has been moved
to China that many items on which consumers depend are no longer
produced in America.
Now
let’s consider the cost to China of dumping dollars or Treasuries
compared to the cost that the US is trying to impose on China. If
the latter is higher than the former, it pays China to exercise
the “nuclear option” and dump the dollar.
The
US wants China to revalue the yuan, that is, to make the dollar
value of the yuan higher. Instead of a dollar being worth 8 yuan,
for example, Washington wants the dollar to be worth only 5.5 yuan.
Washington thinks that this would cause US exports to China to increase,
as they would be cheaper for the Chinese, and for Chinese exports
to the US to decline, as they would be more expensive. This would
end, Washington thinks, the large trade deficit that the US has
with China.
This
way of thinking dates from pre-offshoring days. In former times,
domestic and foreign-owned companies would compete for one another’s
markets, and a country with a lower valued currency might gain an
advantage.
Today,
however, about half of the so-called US imports from China are the
offshored production of US companies for their American markets.
The US companies produce in China, not because of the exchange rate,
but because labor, regulatory, and harassment costs are so much
lower in China. Moreover, many US firms have simply moved to China,
and the cost of abandoning their new Chinese facilities and moving
production back to the US would be very high.
When
all these costs are considered, it is unclear how much China would
have to revalue its currency in order to cancel its cost advantages
and cause US firms to move enough of their production back to America
to close the trade gap.
To
understand the shortcomings of the statements by the Wisconsin professor
and Treasury Secretary Paulson, consider that if China were to increase
the value of the yuan by 30 percent, the value of China’s
dollar holdings would decline by 30 percent. It would have the same
effect on China’s pocketbook as dumping dollars and Treasuries
in the markets.
Consider
also, that as revaluation causes the yuan to move up in relation
to the dollar (the reserve currency), it also causes the yuan to
move up against every other traded currency. Thus, the Chinese cannot
revalue as Paulson has ordered without making Chinese goods more
expensive not merely to Americans but everywhere.
Compare
this result with China dumping dollars. With the yuan pegged to
the dollar, China can dump dollars without altering the exchange
rate between the yuan and the dollar. As the dollar falls, the yuan
falls with it. Goods and services produced in China do not become
more expensive to Americans, and they become cheaper elsewhere.
By dumping dollars, China expands its entry into other markets and
accumulates more foreign currencies from trade surpluses.
Now
consider the non-financial costs to China’s self-image and
rising prestige of permitting the US government to set the value
of its currency. America’s problems are of its own making,
not China’s. A rising power such as China is likely to prove
a reluctant scapegoat for America’s decades of abuse of its
reserve currency status.
Economists
and government officials believe that a rise in consumer prices
by 30 per cent is good if it results from yuan revaluation, but
that it would be terrible, even beyond the pale, if the same 30
percent rise in consumer prices resulted from a tariff put on goods
made in China. The hard pressed American consumer would be hit equally
hard either way. It is paradoxical that Washington is putting pressure
on China to raise US consumer prices, while blaming China for harming
Americans. As is usually the case, the harm we suffer is inflicted
by Washington.
Paul
Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in
the Reagan administration. He was Associate Editor of the Wall Street
Journal editorial page and Contributing Editor of National Review.
He is coauthor of The
Tyranny of Good Intentions. He can be reached at: paulcraigroberts@yahoo.com
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