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Now Available! Dime's Worth of Difference: Beyond the Lesser of Two Evils Order Here! Today's Stories November 5, 2004 Jo Guldi The Beast of History is In November 4, 2004 Sharon Smith The Self-Fulfilling Prophesy of Lesser-Evilism CounterPunch Wire Bush Voters: 2000 v. 2004 Ben Tripp My Fellow Americans...Get Stuffed! Michael Donnelly Why Not Blame Rosie? Vijay Prashad An Election of Homophobia and Misogyny Jules Rabin De Profundis: the Morning After Robert Jensen Politics and Professions of Faith: "Your Rich Men are Full of Violence" Zoltan Grossman Blue State Secession: the Only Solution? Jonah Birch 1968 and Today Dave Lindorff What Went Wrong? Jack McCarthy I Knew It Was Over When Michael Moore Showed Up: He Was For Nader...Before He Was Against Him Donna J. Volatile Ahoy Kerrycrats! Welcome to Our Nightmare Paul Craig Roberts The Bright Side of Black Tuesday     November 3, 2004 James Hodge / Linda Cooper The CIA and Abu Ghraib: 50 Years of Training Torturers Ann Harrison The Ghost Votes in the Machine: Voting Snafus Across the Nation Greg Moses Blues for Fallujah Anis Memon The Moral (Values) of This Election Mickey Z. Post Mortem Josh Frank The Dems Should be Ashamed Chris Floyd No Ways Tired: Defeat, Dissent and the Bush Machine spArk Smoke Signals from Portland: Karmic Blowback and the Democrats Friedrich von Schiller Folly, Thou Conquerest Cockburn / St. Clair Democrats in End Time: Who to Blame Now?   November 2, 2004 Gary Leupp Democratic Elections in Historical Perspective: The Wrong Side Wins Lance Selfa Selling the War on Terror Laura Carlsen The US Elections and Latin America: Can the US Ever be a Good Neighbor? James Davis To Control the Event: Attention Bicyclists Richard Oxman Getting Up with Osama Dr. Ira Kay A Mental Map of the Bush Presidency Jesse Walker Frankenstein v. Chucky: the Halloween Election Thomas C. Mountain Election '24, Deja Vu?: LaFollette, Nader, & the "Most Important Election of Our Lifetimes"   November 1, 2004 Cockburn / St. Clair How Bush Was Offered Bin Laden and Blew It Dave Lindorff Bulgegate Confirmed; Press Yawns Greg Bates Nader Voter Survey Results Roger Morris Novel Politics: Only Fiction Can Do This Election Justice Diane Christian Death Tolls Lenni Brenner Secularists Be Warned: Christlike Kerry Roams Spiritual Universe Christopher C. Conway Can the Left Sink Any Lower? Francis Boyle Legal Elites and the Iraq War: the Nazis Had Their Law Professors, Too Jason Leopold Rummy's Failed War Plan Website of the Day Dylan Resurrects "Masters of War"   October 30 / 31, 2004 JoAnn Wypijewski The Long March and the Million Worker March Winslow T. Wheeler Spartacus Tells All Bruce Anderson Notes from the Big Empty: When the Hippies Invaded NoCal Vicente Navarro They Worked for Franco: How Sec. of State Cordell Hull and Nobel Laureate Camilo Jose Cela Collaborated with the Fascist Regime Robin Blackburn How Monica Lewinsky Saved Social Security Greg Bates A Question of Character: What Makes Nader Tick? Nancy Welch The American Health Care Crisis: an Interview with Dr. David Himmelstein William Lind Election Day: Which Menendez Brother Will You Vote For? Brian Cloughley Uzbekistan and Bush Hypocrisies Suzan Mazur Oops They Did It Again: the NYTs the Paper of Record and Rip-Offs Greg Moses Standing at the Graves of Iraq John Chuckman Osama's Endorsement Richard Oxman Why Not Accept Osama's Offer? Ken Avidor Landscape of Fear: When Ugly is Suspicious Niranjan Ramakrishnan Bush, Ba'ath and Beyond Hope Bastian Strangling Cuba's Economy P. Sainath Tower of Gabble: Toward a Sustainable Rhetoric Dave Zirin Bush League: Why MLB Owners Support the Prez Jon Swift The Dry Drunk Thang: Put a Cork in It Ron Jacobs The Joke's on Me: a Review of Bob Dylan's Chronicles Vol. 1 Alexander Billet Taking Theatre Back: Are the States Ready for "Stuff Happens"? Poets' Basement Jones, Laymon, Norris, Ford and Albert Website of the Weekend The Origins of Halloween October 29, 2004 Harry Browne No Justice for Peace Activist in County Clare October 28, 2004 Forrest Hylton "The Gas is Ours:" Bolivia's Ghosts of October Col. Dan Smith Rebellion in the Ranks Alan Maass Jon Stewart v. the Pundits Ron Jacobs Ecstasy in Red Sox Nation Alexander Cockburn Kerrycrats and the War     October 27, 2004 Jules Rabin Crammed with Distressful Politics Dave Lindorff Bulgegate: the Lies Continue Katherine Van Tassel On the Home Front: Both Parties Ignore Working Parents Jeffrey St. Clair The Bi-Partisan Politics of Oil   October 26, 2004 Brian Cloughley Three Weddings and Lots of Funerals: Atrocities in Iraq and Afghanistan William Blum Fear Factors Lenni Brenner The 1964 Berkeley Free Speech Movement: Lessons for 2004 Ben Tripp The Chicken Salad Election Fidel Castro After the Fall Greg Bates The Nation's Flawed Calculus Walter Brasch Gag the Public: the War on Dissent Niranjan Ramakrishnan An Open Letter to Pat Buchanan Mickey Z. Rumble in the Jungle at 30: Ali, Foreman and the Congo Amir Taheri The Boom in Conspiracy Theories Alexander Billet Say It Ain't So, Bruce!: the Boss Endorses Kerry Doug Giebel The Religion of G.W. Bush Kathleen Christison Why I Liked Thomas Friedman's Latest Column Before I Didn't   October 25, 2004 Ralph Nader Letter from a Minnesota Highway Werther West Texas Wahabbism Dave Zirin Boston's Killer Cops: Death of a Fan Fred Gardner Pot Shots: Oregon Revokes Dr. Leveque's License Omar Barghouti Executing Another Child in Rafah William J. Nottingham Lori Berenson's Story John Chuckman A Foolish Consistency Uri Avnery On the Road to Civil War   October 22 / 24, 2004 Alexander Cockburn You Can't Blame Nader for This Rev. William Alberts On Bended Knee: Faith-Based Deceptions Willliam A. Cook Killing for Christ Saul Landau George W. Bush: a Man of His Words? Bill Quigley I Held the Bullet in My Palm: Masked Haitian Police Shoot Children While Arresting Priest Christopher Brauchli Seal It With a Frown: What Compassionate Conservativism Really Means William S. Lind Fallujah and the Moral Level of War Sharon Smith Guilt Trippers for Kerry Greg Bates Kerrynomics: "Hurt the Ones Who Vote for Us" Justin E.H. Smith Is Lesser Evilism a Compromise with Evil? Rebecca Evans Tarnished Legacy: Pinochet and the Chilean Military Mike Whitney Al Hurra TV: the Second Invasion M. Junaid Alam Purchasing Individuality in America David Krieger Nuclear Non-Proliferation: Examining the Policies of Bush and Kerry David J. Ledermann The Emperor's New Crumbs Lawrence Reichard Same Old FBI Story Website of the Weekend Lie Girls: the Real Coalition of the Willling     October 21, 2004 Ben Tripp The Undecided Voter Examined Joshua Frank Kerry and the Environment: It's Not Easy Pretending to be Green Stan Cox What the Left Doesn't Get About Small Businesses Bill Martinez State Depart and Cuban Visas: Only Anti-Castro Agitators Need Apply Mark Engler The War and Globalization Lina Britto and Lucia Suarez Bolivia: a Year After the October Insurrection Website of the Day Two Pampered Children of Wealth     October 20, 2004 Yitzhak Laor "Did You Two Squabble?": a Bullet Fired for Every Palestinian Child Jason Leopold Sinclair Broadcasting's Air War: a Long History of Journalistic Deception Jesse Sharkey A Teacher's Account of How Military Recruiters Prey on High School Students Col. Dan Smith Choking Free Speech About the Draft Dr. Teresa Whitehurst Using My Religion David Vest If Bush Wins, Blame Me Jack Random The Jackson 17: Reflections on a Mutiny Ron Jacobs Time to Kick It Up a Notch James Brittain Plan Patriota and the FARC: a Change in the Countryside? Christopher Dols Bombing Madison: Michael Moore's Fright Fest Dave Lindorff First They Came for the Nurses... Website of the Day Banana Republican Catalogue   October 19, 2004 Jeffrey St. Clair Party Favors: the Political Business of Terry McAuliffe Jeff Taylor Confessions of a Swing State Voter Matt Vidal American Myopia: "More Money in Your Pocket" Victor Kattan "It's Not Who You're Against; It's Who You're For": Palestine Takes Center Stage At Euro Social Forum William Loren Katz What Goes Around Comes Around Sean Carter O'Reilly Should Shut Up About Extortion Claiims CounterPunch Wire Who's Really in Bed with Republican Funders: Kerry or Nader?     October 18, 2004 Saul Landau Facts and Lies; Slogans and Truth Dave Lindorff Bulletin on the Bush Bulge Diane Christian Sheep and Goats: On the Language of Goodness Greg Bates / Dave Lindorff Betting on War: a Wager on the Fallout of a Kerry Presidency Uri Avnery Ariel Sharon's Philosophy Peter LaVenia Leaving the Greens So Soon? a Response to Josh Frank Mike Whitney O'Reilly at the Whipping Post Elaine Cassel The Other War: Civil Liberties Three Years After 9/11   October 16 / 17, 2004 Alexander Cockburn The Free Speech Movement and Howard Stern Leslie Brill Unmerciful Judge, Merry Executioners: the Death Penalty as the True Measure of Bush's Character Jules Rabin Reckoning Deaths in an Agitated World Dave Lindorff About the Bush Bulge: Was There a Pucker in That Jacket or Was the President Just Glad to be There? Peter Linebaugh Judging Judges: a Few Pages from The Mirror of Justices Gary Leupp Iran and Syria: How to Effect Regime Change and Expand the Empire M. Shahid Alam America, Imagine This! Ron Jacobs Trying to Cross Lake Champlain Fred Gardner The Flu Vaccine Question: How Bush Blew It Jenna Orkin The Toxic Legacy of 9/11 Dave Zirin Name the DC Baseball Team: Contest Results David Hamilton Alone and Exposed: Bush as a Strong Leader? Ralph Nader Criticizing Israel is Not Anti-Semitism Doug Giebel Thinking the Unthinkable Mark Engler Crimes in Freedom's Name: Dick Cheney's El Salvador Derek Tyner Blacks Didn't Get the Vote by Voting: an Interview With Clarence Thomas on the Million Worker March Evan Jones Gimme That Ole Time Religion: Cash and "The Mind of the South" Poets' Basement LaMorticella, Klipschutz and Albert Website of the Weekend No More Bush Girls   October 15, 2004 Paul Craig Roberts Where Did These "Conservatives" Come From?: The Brownshirting of America Laura Carlsen Wal-Mart vs. the Pyramids of the Sun and Moon Greg Bates Empire of Insanity: Kerry's Iraq Troop Numbers Michael Donnelly News from a Swing State: Does Anyone Here Have a Spine? Katherine Lahey The Venezuelan "Threat": Why Do Kerry and Bush Fear Hugo Chavez? Robert Jensen / Pat Youngblood Election Day Fears Leah Caldwell From Supermax to Abu Ghraib: the Masterminds of Torture and Abuse Website of the Day An Anti-Billionaire Policy? Why That Would Be Economic Racism     October 14, 2004 Darcy Richardson The Other Progressive Candidate: the Lonely Crusade of Walt Brown Willliam A. Cook Turning Myths into Truth Laura Santina Water, Women and War Evelyn Pringle Free Speech Banned by Big Pharma: What You Can't Say About Drug Importation Alan Farago Lessons from Nature Rep. Maxine Waters A Letter to Colin Powell on Haiti Nicole Colson Maimed for Oil and Empire       October 13, 2004 Bishop Thomas Gumbleton and Bill Quigley Aftermath of a Coup: The Other Disaster in Haiti Sharon Smith Barak O-Bomb-a?: Democrats Target Iran Christopher Brauchli God and the Bush Administration Mike Whitney The Real Meaning of the Hamdi Case Paul de Rooij Amnesty International: a False Beacon? Website of the Day Operation Truth     October 12, 2004 Roxanne Dunbar-Ortiz "Indian Country" Greg Bates The Year of Voting Dangerously: a Survey Request of Nader Voters in Swing States Steven Conn Progressives as Pawns: Kerry's War on Nader Jason Leopold Under Cheney, Halliburton Helped Saddam Siphon Billions from UN Oil-for-Food Program Security Scholars for a Sensible Foreign Policy Time for a Change of Course Timothy J. Freeman Dying for a Mistake Pierre Tristam Deconstructing Bush Niranjan Ramakrishnan The 2nd Debate: the Blurring of Act and Audience Bill and Kathleen Christison Israel as Sideshow Website of the Day John Kerry's Personal Off-Shore Tax Shelters   October 11, 2004 Robert Fisk Iraq: Unforgivable Betrayals and Broken Promises Kevin Pina The Untold Story of Aristide's Departure from Haiti Patrick Gavin Rethinking Columbus Day Chris Floyd Tribes with Flags in the New Afghanistan Daniel Wolff Radioactive Money: Entergy, Political Cash and America's Most Dangerous Nuclear Plant Walter Brasch The Only Ones Who Believe Saddam Had WMDs are Bush, Cheney...and 40% of All Americans Mike Whitney The Phony Afghan Elections: Ballot of the Disappearing Ink Ari Shavit "He Talks to Condi Rice Every Day": an Interview with Sharon's Lawyer Paul Craig Roberts The Debates and the Big Lie Website of the Day Dylan's Greatest Recording?     October 9 / 10, 2004 Alexander Cockburn "There Are No Innocents" Paul de Rooij Northern Ireland is Still the Issue: a Conversation with Gerry Adams M. Shahid Alam Making Sense of Our Times Laura Carlsen Protest and Populism in Latin America Fred Gardner Pot Shots: ASA Goes to Court Col. Dan Smith Bush's Credibility Gap Paul Craig Roberts Faith-Based Economics Greg Bates What If Nader Critics Get What They Demand? Joshua Frank Cobb, the Greens and the Collapse of the Left Felice Pace Wilderness, Politics and the Oligarchy: How the Pew Charitable Trust is Smothering the Grassroots Environmental Movement Walter A. Davis Of Pynchon, Thanatos and Depleted Uranium William A. Cook The Agony of Colin Powell Phyllis Pollack Twas No Crank Call Love Affair: London Calling, 25 Years Later Poets' Basement Klipschutz, Albert, Ford Website of the Weekend Abu Ghraib: the Taguba Annexes   October 8, 2004 Jennifer Loewenstein The Israeli Invasion of Gaza Moshe Adler Edwards' Gambit: He Hoped No One Would Notice the Similarities David Swanson Media Blackout: Press Continues to Ignore Labor's Opposition to Iraq War Dave Zirin CounterPunch Contest: Let's Name the New DC Baseball Team! Rep. Ron Paul The Draft is a Form of Slavery William S. Lind Keeping Our SA Up Samar Assad Kerry v. Bush: No Difference When It Comes to Israel / Palestine Jim Ingalls and Sonali Kolhatkar The Elections in Afghanistan     October 7, 2004 Dave Lindorff All Out of Volunteers: A Draft is in the Air Masha Hamilton Fear in Kandahar Christopher Brauchli Master of Corruption: the Ripening Scandals of Tom Delay Jason Leopold Is There Still Time to Impeach Bush? Bruce K. Gagnon Bombing the Panhandle: Fighting the Pentagon in Rural Florida Meredith Kolodner Where is the Urgency?: The Anti-War Movement's Election Year Challenge     October 6, 2004 Jeffrey St. Clair "Please, Dude, Can I Take Them Out?": Targeting Civilians in Fallujah Ron Jacobs Going Nuclear: the Ghost of Edward Teller Lives Michael Colby The National Flip-Flop: Suddenly Bush is Unfit to Lead? Tarif Abboushi More of the Same: Israel Wins the Debates Matthew Behrens Canadian Firms Profit from Iraqi Blood Mike Whitney Rethinking WMDs John Pilger Stealing Diego Garcia Ben Tripp Kerry's "Triumph" Kevin McKiernan Cheney's Poison Lab: Wrong Time, Wrong Target Patrick Cockburn Elections Will Not End the Fighting in Iraq Website of the Day Is There an Islamic Problem? October 5, 2004 Anthony Loewenstein Rupert Murdoch and the Marginals: "Personally Creating Outcomes" Mark Clinton and Tony Udell The Suicide of an Iraq War Veteran Greg Bates Trading Idiots: an Open Letter to Eric Alterman Dave Lindorff What's the Frequency, Karl? Norm Dixon Why Washington Won't Save Darfur Villagers Larry Kearney God Talk and Burning Children Bill Linville Dirty Politics in the Land of "Clean" Government Gary Leupp What Edwards Should Ask Cheney Website of the Day A Guide to Halliburton for Tonight's Debate   October 4, 2004 Diane Christian The Gates of Hell Joshua Frank An Interview with David Cobb Doug Giebel Incurious George: What If Bush Didn't Lie? John Chuckman Strange Victory: Sen. Obvious and the Pathetic Lump Ramzy Baroud Reverse the Picture: Anatomy of a Palestinian Outrage Julia Stein Remembering Mario Savio and the FSM Sean Donahue Outsourcing Terror: Kerry and Special Forces Website of the Day Mapping Mt. St. Helens as She Rocks   October 2 / 3. 2004 Paul Wright John Kerry on Criminal Justice Kathleen and Bill Christison An Exchange with Israeli Historian Bennie Morris Kathie Helmkamp My Son Trent: a Marine Who Doesn't Want to Kill Phillip Cryan Indigenous Mobilization in Colombia Lenni Brenner The First Ex-Catholic Saint: Memories of Mario Savio Fred Gardner Pot Shots: In Case You Missed "Montel" Ron Jacobs It Did Happen Here: When Neo-Nazis Terrorized Olympia Ben Tripp Sticker Shock William S. Lind The Grand Illusion: Iraqi Security Forces Dave Zirin The Swindle of the Century: Baseball Comes to DC Dave Lindorff Lies from the Great Debate Luscon Pierre-Charles Haiti's Elections: a High-Tech Sham is Underway Zoe Moskovitz & Sasha Kramer Separating Lies from Truth About Haiti Nelson P. Valdes Habana Night vs. Latin American Scholars in Vegas: 61 Banned Cuban Academics Alan Farago The "Ownership Society" and the End of the Everglades Nancy Haley What is the Historical Jesus Trying to Tell Us? Alex Billet Long Live The Clash: London Still Calling After 25 Years Steve Fesenmaier Save and Burn: The War on Libraries Poets' Basement Smith, Holt, Albert   October 1, 2004 Steve Breyman Kerry's Missed Opportunities Rose Gentle My Son Died for a Lie Lee Sustar Iran in the Crosshairs Ralph Nader What We Didn't Hear at the Debate: Where's the Exit Strategy? Walter Andrews We Are Less Secure Now Than Ever Mike Whitney Pandora's Government Mickey Z. Debate This Saul Landau The Iraq Invasion: Lessons from the Pinochet Cases                   Hot Stories Alexander Cockburn Behold, the Head of a Neo-Con! Subcomandante Marcos The Death Train of the WTO Norman Finkelstein Hitchens as Model Apostate Steve Niva Israel's Assassination Policy: the Trigger for Suicide Bombings? Dardagan, Slobodo and Williams CounterPunch Exclusive: 20,000 Wounded Iraqi Civilians Steve J.B. Prison Bitch Sheldon Rampton and John Stauber True Lies: the Use of Propaganda in the Iraq War Wendell Berry Small Destructions Add Up CounterPunch Wire WMD: Who Said What When Cindy Corrie A Mother's Day Talk: the Daughter I Can't Hear From Gore Vidal The Erosion of the American Dream Francis Boyle Impeach Bush: A Draft Resolution Click Here for More Stories.     Subscribe Online

November 4, 2004 Big Wins for Instant Runoff Voting Election 2004 By the Numbers By ROB RITCHIE We've been sifting through the results of the November 2nd elections. They tell important stories ­ ones that in some cases have been overlooked or misinterpreted by many observers. I think you'll enjoy perusing through our findings below. I also wanted to report on three landslide wins for instant runoff voting at the ballot this November. Instant runoff voting (www.fairvote.org) is rapidly growing in popularity as a means to elect majority winners when more than two candidates contest an executive / one-winner office. * Proposal B on Ferndale, Michigan's ballot won by a lopsided 69%-31% margin. The proposal amends Ferndale's city charter to provide for election of the mayor and City Council through the use of IRV pending the availability and purchase of compatible software and approval of the equipment by the Ferndale Election Commission. A suburb of Detroit with some 10,000 voters that are relatively balanced between Democrats and Republicans, Ferndale had a very energetic, effective campaign led by Ferndale IRV: www.firv.org * In Vermont, voters in Burlington overwhelmingly passed an advisory referendum on whether the city charter should be amended to use IRV for the election of the mayor. Under Burlington's current charter, a candidate for mayor can win with as little as 40% of the vote (meaning 60% might consider that candidate the worst choice), and if no candidate achieves that threshold, a separate runoff election is held. These provisions offer the worst of both worlds, creating the risk of a "spoiler" scenario and also the potential cost and lower turnout typical of a separate runoff. Some 66% of voters approved the ballot item, meaning that a formal charter amendment is likely to move forward in March. * Voters in 16 western Massachusetts towns approved a non-binding motion in support of IRV, by a margin of 11,956 to 5,568. The question directed state representative Steve Kulik to vote in favor of legislation or a constitutional amendment to require IRV for elections to statewide office (such as Governor, Treasurer, Auditor and Secretary of the Commonwealth.) The final good news on the instant runoff voting was San Francisco's first IRV election. Despite introducing the system to voters in the midst of a presidential year, the city reported a smooth transition. First-choice results were reported on election night. With absentee and provisional ballots being integrated into the totals, initial runs of the IRV program should take place on Friday -- in the future we expect quicker results, and cities and states that require all absentee votes to be in place by election night could run IRV tallies that evening. For a San Francisco Chronicle news article, see: http://fairvote.org/sf/sfchronicle110304.htm Before turning to our "Election 2004 by the Numbers", I will make one point about the election process in this country. Many observers are suggesting that the election went smoothly. Although we applaud all the election officials, observers and alert voters who helped make our elections work better than in they could have been, we would politely disagree that having only 71% of our adult population registered to vote and forcing some voters to wait in lines that take more than 10 hours are signs of a well-operating electoral process. More fundamentally, I believe we aren't hearing as much about problems in significant part because this year one state isn't holding the future of the presidency in an election requiring a recount. If Ohio had been 100,000 votes closer, we suspect we would be hearing hourly stories about controversial practices, the "chads" that are used on Ohio's many punchard machines, why there were so many provisional ballots, how overseas ballots were handled, double-voting and the like. We continue to have a patchwork of laws and practices that are an ongoing accident waiting to happen. We are developing a series of recommendations for congressional action to protect our citizenship right to vote, starting with a right to vote in the Constitution and continuing through statutory changes such as universal registration to ensure clean and complete voter rolls, making Election Day a holiday to ensure both an adequate pool of pollworkers and increased access for voters, and uniform standards for voting equipment. We can -- and must -- do better, and we would be foolish to become complacent. Onto our report on "Election 2004 By the Numbers." Our key findings include: * The 2004 election was in fact a very status quo one, reflected by the near exact Electoral College mirror of 2004 to 2000 and the almost perfect stasis in U.S. House races. Even the Senate gains from Republicans fit into this pattern, with all Republican gains coming on ground that already was firmly Republican in 2000. Of course when Republicans control the White House and Congress, a status quo election is a victory for their party. * The House of Representatives has reached a breathtaking level of non-competitiveness. More than 95% of seats were won by margins of more than 10% - a record. Only four incumbents outside of Texas didn,t win by at least 4%, and only three were defeated. The House has changed partisan control only once since 1954 ­ and unless Republicans suffer major setbacks in the 2006 midterm election, it almost certainly won,t change hands anytime soon. This lack of competition is partly due to redistricting, partly due to incumbent advantages, partly due to campaign finance ­ but primarily due to the fact of winner-take-all elections in single-member districts. We support full representation voting methods as the one indispensable part of any reform package seeking to provide real choices and fair representation to all voters. * Our Monopoly Politics projections in US House races were extremely accurate on victory margins. Made without any attention /to campaign financing and candidate behavior and using a one-size-fits-all model, we projected landslide wins in 211 seats ­ and 210 those seats indeed were won by 20% landslide margins. Of the 13 seats we identified as most vulnerable with our model, fully 7 changed parties ­ among only 11 of 435 seats that changed overall. Only six seats changed hands in 403 seats outside of Texas. Here is more detail on our findings for each level of election: * Presidency: - George Bush certainly ran more strongly than in 2000, a year in which he received a half million fewer votes than Al Gore. This year President Bush,s popular vote victory margin will likely be about 3.5 million votes ­ and was much larger in total numbers of votes received due to the rise in participation. His percentage of the vote rose consistently by 2-3% in most states, reflecting a general rise in the national tide of support -- although one that Democrats countered to some degree in such battlegrounds as Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin. - At the same time, 48 of 51 the Electoral College contests (in the 50 states and the District of Columbia) voted for or against Bush according to how they had voted for Bush in 2000. A shift of only 35,000 votes in Iowa and New Mexico (Bush,s narrowest wins in 2004 and Gore,s closest wins in 2000) and New Hampshire (Kerry,s closest win in 2004 and one of Bush,s two closest wins in 2000) would have resulted in all 51 contests going exactly as they had gone in 2000. - If Bush,s victory had been smaller ­ perhaps by one million votes instead of three ­ John Kerry likely would have won Ohio and thus the Electoral College and the presidency. That win would have meant two consecutive dysfunctional presidential elections where the popular vote winner did not win the presidency. This year,s race easily could have gone to a 269-269 tie, after which the U.S. House would have picked the president, with one vote per state ­ a tie would have occurred if Kerry had won a total of 46,000 more votes in Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico (and perhaps a good deal less once all the provisional ballots are counted). - For those dismayed by how the presidential campaigns so clearly focused all their energy and resources on the 16-18 states defined as battlegrounds, watch out. If anything, the number of battlegrounds likely will decline in 2008. If this year,s national vote had been a 50-50 tie and the vote share had changed equally across the nation, only 5 states would likely have been decided by less than 4%, and only 15 states by less than 8%. Democratic states in fact are more solid than Republican ones in this scenario ­ a tie vote this year certainly would have elected John Kerry based on this year,s results. Thus, don,t expect more inclusive presidential campaigning in 2008 ­ and quite possibly an even smaller one, with all attention again paid on the two big truly swing states, Florida and Ohio. - For Republicans to win all 50 states, their candidate likely would need to win more than 63% of the national vote. (Republicans can forget completely about winning in Washington, D.C., where Bush in 2004 did not crack double digits). A similar vote share for Democrats would likely win only 42 states; to win all 50 seats, their candidate likely would need to win more than 70% of the national vote. These sharp differences reflect how the nation,s partisan polarization is very real. Exit polls suggest that George Bush won only 10% support from African-Americans (11% of all voters) and John Kerry won only 23% of evangelical Christians (22% of all voters). U.S. Senate - Republicans had a net gain of four seats in the Senate, but there are important caveats about the mandate in that result. First, in U.S. Senate races Democratic candidates overall won approximately three million more votes than Republicans. Second, Republicans only gained seats in states that George Bush had carried in 2000 at the same time he lost the national popular vote -- Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina and South Dakota. Third, five of their six seat gains were in open seats without incumbents, and each of the winning Republicans in these open seat races ran behind George Bush,s winning total in the state. - The sixth seat gain for Republicans was in South Dakota, where Tom Daschle was defeated by less than 5,000 votes (and where he and his opponent John Thune spent more than $30 million in an election where 390,000 votes were cast ­ more than $75 per vote). Daschle was the only Senate incumbent to lose; the Democrats, two gains were in open seats in Republican-leaning Colorado and Democrat-leaning Illinois. U.S. House of Representatives - This House election was the least competitive in history. 416 out of 435 seats (95.6%) were won by non-competitive victory margins of at least 10%. 369 out of 435 seats (84.8%) were won by landslide margins of at least 20%. More than 99% of incumbents outside of Texas won, with only three (one Democrat and two Republicans) losing. (Four Democratic incumbents lost in Texas after being victimized by brutal gerrymandering, as detailed below, including two losing to Republican incumbents.) Only one victorious incumbent won by less than 4%. Note that these safe incumbents won in an election where the voter turnout was 50% higher than it had been in 2002 -- but the new voters broke along very similar partisan lines, based largely on the partisan nature of most districts. - George Bush,s coattails were very limited. Outside of Texas (see below for more on the impact of that state,s 2003 gerrymander), Republicans picked up only two seats in the U.S. House and lost four. Republicans defeated only one Democratic incumbent (by 1,365 votes in a district that George Bush likely carried by more than 45,000 votes) and gained only one open seat, winning by 31,000 in a district that Bush likely carried by 70,000 votes. All but two of the remaining Democratic incumbents won by margins of at least 10% -- and those by the relatively comfortable margins of 7% and 9%. Only five Democrats, including those defeating incumbents and winning open seats, won by less than 7%, and only one won by less than 4%. Republican targets among incumbents in 2006 are quite limited. - Open seats went heavily to the party that had already been holding that seat ­ 29 of 33, with one of those seat changes in a much-changed district in Texas. Of those 33 seats, 30 went to the candidate of the party whose presidential candidate had carried the district in 2000. - Tom Delay,s Texas gerrymander was immensely successful for Republicans. Democrats lost no seats in the 2002 elections after the 2002 redistricting, resulting in a delegation that was 17-15 Democratic. Today, in the wake of this week,s elections in the 2003 plan, the delegation is 21-11 Republican, a shift of six seats. Just as conceived by the plan,s architects, white congressional Democrats were decimated, reduced from 10 in 2003 to three. Of these three, one (Edwards) won by just 4% in his heavily Republican district, and the other two represent Latino-majority districts. By 2012, it is quite possible that no white Democrat will represent Texas in Congress. - In November 2002, within days of the election, we issued our "Monopoly Politics projections for November 2004 House races, for which we needed to know absolutely nothing about campaign financing, the quality of challengers and incumbent voting records and behavior. The only changes we have made since then were factoring in the 33 open seats and the 32 seats changed in the Texas redistricting plan. Once our one-size-fits-all formula was adjusted with that information, we projected 211 landslide winners of at least 20% -- and 210 indeed did win by landslide. We projected another 107 comfortable wins of at least 10% ­ and 105 indeed did win. We projected another 33 winners ­ and 32 won. Yes, despite missing only four projected margins out of 351, we did have two of our projected winners (Phil Crane in Illinois and the open seat in Colorado,s CD-3) defeated ­ making three errors out of more than 1,600 projected winners in the five House elections starting in 1996. - Washington state voters adopted (even as California voters rejected) a version of Louisiana,s "top two system. This year,s elections were the latest example of the quirks of this system. In Louisiana, all candidates run on the November ballot. If no candidate reaches 50%, the two top vote-getters face off in December. (In Washington, the first round will take place in September, with the top two always facing off in November.) There will be two hotly contested runoffs this December in competitive seats in Louisiana, both with one Democrat and one Republican. In CD-3 all Republican candidates won a total of 59% of the vote and all Democrats won a total of 41%. But the third-place Republican candidate finished less than 2,100 behind the second-place Democrat, with another 10,300 votes going to a Republican who lagged behind ­ the December contest thus easily could have been between two Republicans. In Washington State, we suspect third party candidates will almost never now be able to contest the November election, and key races will regularly lack a candidate from one of the major parties. Women, racial minorities and third parties: - Women increased from holding 60 U.S. House seats to 64 seats, just shy of 15% of the House, A woman candidate has a solid chance of winning one of Louisiana,s two runoff elections in December. Women maintained their 14% of U.S. Senate seats and will drop from nine gubernatorial seats to seven or eight depending on whether Christine Gregoire wins her undecided Washington State election. - After gaining no U.S. House seats in 2002 after redistricting, African- Americans gained three new House seats in Texas, Missouri and Wisconsin. Asian Americans gained a new seat in Louisiana, and Latinos a new seat in Colorado. After six years without an African-American or Latino in the U.S. Senate, African American Barack Obama won in Illinois and Latinos Ken Salazar and Mel Martinez won in Colorado and Florida. White men and women now hold 49 of 50 gubernatorial seats and 95 of 100 Senate seats. - Third parties had a sharply reduced impact in the presidential election, with the total third party under 1%. Third parties also had limited impact on congressional races, with only two victorious Senate and House candidates apparently held below 50%. Third parties increased their number of seats in state legislatures, but primarily in Vermont, where the Progressives now hold six seats. Governors and state legislatures - Gubernatorial elections continue to be the single-most competitive level of election in the United States. Fully half of all states have had a governor from a new party in the past four years. Four of the 10 governor,s races that have been decided changes parties ­ the 11th race in Washington is too close to call. -According to the National Conference of State Legislators, Democrats gained 76 state legislative seats around the nation and picked up more legislative chambers than their Republican counterparts. As a reflection of a 50-50 nation, Democrats lead by just 12 seats out of a total of 7,382 seats. We reported this fall that only 61% of state legislative seats were even contested by both major parties See: http://www.ncsl.org/programs/press/2004/pr041103a.htm (NCSL news release) http://fairvote.org/reports/uncontestedraces.htm (uncontested races)   Voter turnout - According to Curtis Gans and the Committee on the Study of the American Electorate (CSAE), voter turnout (not counting those who made mistakes in their votes for president) will likely end up being more than 120 million adults, which is 59.6% of eligible citizens ­ the highest since 1968, when 61.9% of turnout and up from 2000 (54.3%), 1996 (51.5%) and 1992 (58.1%). Voter turnout rose in all but one state (Arizona). We will post CSAE's report on Friday, November 5. - Turnout in the presidential battleground states increased by 6.3%. Turnout in the other states increased by only 3.8%. Turnout in noncompetitive New York rose by only 0.8%, while in hotly contested Florida and Ohio it rose by more than 8%. At least three states voted at higher rates than the part of the United States that in 2000 and most other recent years has had the highest turnout in the nation: Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico is not allowed to vote for president despite its people being American citizens, but it again had a hotly contested race for governor, resulting in turnout of 70.5% of eligible voters. According to CSAE, this year's turnout was only higher in Minnesota (76.5), Wisconsin (73.7%) and New Hampshire (71.6%) and may ultimately be iin Oregon and Maine. Helping to explain its high turnout, Puerto Rico makes voting a holiday and has legislative elections that allow small parties to win seats through full representation. Minnesota, Maine, Wisconsin and New Hampshire all have election day registration. Oregon has vote-by-mail. Rob Richie is executive director of the Center for Voting and Democracy. Weekend Edition Features for October 30 / 31, 2004 Winslow T. Wheeler Spartacus Tells All Bruce Anderson Notes from the Big Empty: When the Hippies Invaded NoCal Vicente Navarro They Worked for Franco: How Sec. of State Cordell Hull and Nobel Laureate Camilo Jose Cela Collaborated with the Fascist Regime Robin Blackburn How Monica Lewinsky Saved Social Security Greg Bates A Question of Character: What Makes Nader Tick? Nancy Welch The American Health Care Crisis: an Interview with Dr. David Himmelstein William Lind Election Day: Which Menendez Brother Will You Vote For? Brian Cloughley Uzbekistan and Bush Hypocrisies Suzan Mazur Oops They Did It Again: the NYTs the Paper of Record and Rip-Offs Greg Moses Standing at the Graves of Iraq John Chuckman Osama's Endorsement Richard Oxman Why Not Accept Osama's Offer? Ken Avidor Landscape of Fear: When Ugly is Suspicious Niranjan Ramakrishnan Bush, Ba'ath and Beyond Hope Bastian Strangling Cuba's Economy P. Sainath Tower of Gabble: Toward a Sustainable Rhetoric Dave Zirin Bush League: Why MLB Owners Support the Prez Jon Swift The Dry Drunk Thang: Put a Cork in It Ron Jacobs The Joke's on Me: a Review of Bob Dylan's Chronicles Vol. 1 Alexander Billet Taking Theatre Back: Are the States Ready for "Stuff Happens"? Poets' Basement Jones, Laymon, Norris, Ford and Albert WWW http://www.counterpunch.org   /