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CounterPunch
March 21,
2003
Blitz-Coup
Shock, Awe and
Coup d'Etat
By MILAN RAI
The latest news about the US war plan confirms
that this war is not for the liberation of Iraq. The war is designed
to precipitate a coup. 'General Richard Myers, chairman of the
US joint chiefs of staff, said recently: "If asked to go
into conflict in Iraq, what you'd like to do is have it be a
short conflict. The best way to do that would be to have such
a shock on the system that the Iraqi regime would have to assume
early on the end was inevitable." '
Harlan Ullman, former US Navy pilot,
who co-wrote the book Shock and Awe: 'During the last Gulf war,
the allies launched 325 cruise and precision-guided bombs on
the first day of a 40-day air campaign-now they are talking about
3,000 in 48 hours.' US Air Force B-2s, F-1117As, B-52s, F-15Es
and RAF Tornados will be in the first wave: 'Their targets in
the first hours have been chosen to lessen destruction of Iraq's
infrastructure but maximise the destruction of Saddam Hussein's
family, military and political machine.' '
B-52 bombers flying out of Diego Garcia
and B-2 stealth bombers will attack the barracks and bases of
the elite Republican Guard and government offices....
Amid the noise and horror of this initial
onslaught, US Delta Force teams are likely to be dropped into
Baghdad if US intelligence identifies Saddam's hideout. If the
president cannot be found the Delta Force teams will work under
cover of the bombardment to capture key military and political
figures and to try to demoralise and disrupt Saddam's power base.'
(Sunday Times, 16 Mar., p. 8) '
By the time Iraqis see the dawn at the
end of the first night, their country's military and political
infrastructure is likely to have been shattered, say analysts.
Key leaders will have disappeared, entire military units will
have been obliterated, power supplies will have been shut down
but the visible damage will be surprisingly small, according
to the attack plan... '
The plan is for the massive armoured
column [of the US Army 5th Corps] to use the vast open spaces
in Iraq's Western Desert to spped to the outskirts of Baghdad
within three days. The column is likely to stop outside the city
of Karbala while American airborne units secure the numerous
bridges around Baghdad, sealing off the city. 'If by this time
Saddam is still resisting, military planners have factored in
a short political pause to allow his capitulation. If no white
flag is seen, the assault on Baghdad will begin... At this stage,
the political imperative to keep civilian casualties to a minimum
will have to be put to one side. The attack on Baghdad will use
overwhelming force.' (Sunday Times, 16 Mar., p.9)
TWO STAGE WAR
The 'short political pause' is a euphemism.
The truth was revealed by the Daily Telegraph: 'Allied plan gives
Iraqis chance to topple Saddam'. Patrick Bishop, Telegraph reporter
in Kuwait, was briefed by a senior British officer: 'The war
in Iraq is expected to be a two-stage operation with a pause
to allow time for Saddam Hussein to be toppled by his own people...
Troops [invading from the south] are
under orders to do everything to minimise military casualties
and damage to civilian infrastructure in order to consolidate
good-will and apply further pressure on the Baghdad regime to
turn on Saddam and remove the need for an attack on the capital.
'A senior British army officer said: "No one's going to
go charging into Baghdad. Fighting in urban areas is a hugely
risky business."
If the regime does not fall under the
shock of the initial assault, a stand-off around Baghdad is "a
very likely scenario." 'The advancing forces will look for
every opportunity to bypass Iraqi formations and arrange local
ceasefires and to demonstrate their goodwill towards civilians...
"It's a more subtle approach. It
all comes down to the end state, which is achieving regime change.
Bringing the Iraqi people on board is a very good way to do that."
'Capturing the huge and easily exploited southern Iraqi oil fields
is seen as another key element in the Allied plan to force Saddam
out...
[The source said:] "If you can get
[them] intact that's a huge psychological message to flash to
Baghdad. Sixty per cent of the oil comes from the south."
'Allied planning appears heavily weighted towards an incremental
strategy that applies mounting pressure and allows time for Saddam's
henchmen to decide their self-interest lies in risking a move
against him. "This is all about getting someone to tip him
over," said the source. 'Once at the gates of the capital
there is no intention to fall in with Saddam's declared plan
for a bloody showdown in the streets of Baghdad. Allied troops
are likely to hold back and wait for the collapse of the regime.'
(Telegraph, 15 Mar., p. 10)
But they won't wait forever. And at that
stage, 'the political imperative to keep civilian casualties
to a minimum will have to be put to one side. The attack on Baghdad
will use overwhelming force.' (Sunday Times, 16 Mar., p.9)
THE EXILE OPTION
President Bush said in his ultimatum
on 17 Mar., 'All the decades of deceit and cruelty have now reached
an end. Saddam Hussein and his sons must leave Iraq within 48
hours. Their refusal to do so will result in military conflict.'
The exile option has been a standing
offer from the US for some months. US Defence Secretary Donald
Rumsfeld told a congressional committee in Dec., 'One choice
he [Saddam Hussein] has is to take his family and key leaders
and seek asylum elsewhere. Surely one of the 180-plus countries
would take his regime-possibly Belarus.' (Sunday Times, 29 Dec.
2002, p. 18)
Rumsfeld repeated his offer in Jan.:
'To avoid a war, I would, personally, recommend that some provision
be made so that the senior leadership and their families could
be provided haven in some other country. I think that would be
a fair trade to avoid a war.' (Telegraph, 20 Jan., p. 1)
It is of the utmost importance to understand
what Rumsfeld was saying so clearly: the Iraqi 'regime' which
the US is confronting consists of 'the senior leadership' of
Iraq, and their immediate families. 'Regime change' means in
reality 'leadership change'. The political and military system-the
real 'regime' in Iraq-can remain the same, so long as Saddam's
inner circle leaves power.
President Bush's offer to forego war
if Saddam Hussein and his family goes into exile is a re- confirmation
at the highest level that this is not a war for disarmament or
for real political change in Iraq: this is a war against Saddam
Hussein. This is not a war. This is the most costly, dangerous
and reckless assassination attempt in world history.
FORCE ON MIND
'Until now, most other countries believed
that the Bush administration was mainly pursuing a strategy of
"force on mind"-a combination of tough talk and a theatrical
military buildup that would place unbearable psychological pressure
on Saddam's regime. Operation Force on Mind is what the Brits
are calling their Army buildup in the Gulf.' (Newsweek, 3 Feb.,
p. 18) '
Senior members of the Iraqi regime are
"preparing their bolt-holes" in the conviction that
Saddam Hussein is doomed, but are unlikely to risk staging a
coup until a war begins, Whitehall sources said yesterday. America
and Britain have long hoped that the build-up to war might break
the regime without the need for military action... The British
assessment is that a coup is unlikely before a war, but it is
possible once hostilities begin.' (Telegraph, 21 Feb., p. 17)
Under the headline 'US seeking to foment
the mother of all coups': 'Donald Rumsfeld, the US secretary
of defence, recently said that the senior leadership of Iraq
could indeed be given immunity from prosecution. The hope is
that this would either convince the Iraqi leader to seek exile
or provoke his removal.' 'A coup would be a dream solution to
many of those involved in the Iraq drama, despite the US administration's
insistence that one of its objectives is to sow the seeds of
democratic change in Iraq.' (FT, 12 Feb., p. 8)
THE END STATE
'The desired end state is key to determining
the way the military phase is tackled. There appears to be a
political consensus to preserve Iraq as a single entity... To
US planners the simplest way to keep Iraq together after a war
may be to use the current Iraqi security forces, but under new
management. This would need a very specific direction: that the
security apparatus be disabled but not destroyed during conflict.
This is not an easy military option.' (Sir Timothy Garden, former
Air Marshal, Royal College of Defence Studies, ex-Director of
Royal Institute for International Affairs, Times, 25 Feb., p.
14) (For more on these topics, and the background in 1991, please
see Chapters VII and VIII in War Plan Iraq.)
Thomas Friedman, Diplomatic Correspondent
of the New York Times, explained on 7 July 1991 that the sanctions
regime was designed to provoke a military coup within Iraq to
create 'the best of all worlds', 'an iron-fisted Iraqi junta
without Saddam Hussein'. A return to the days when Saddam's 'iron
fist ... held Iraq together, much to the satisfaction of the
American allies Turkey and Saudi Arabia.'
The FT observes: 'Washington's calculation
is that a break-up of Iraq would fundamentally alter the balance
of power in the Middle East, especially if it led to the creation
of an independent Kurdistan. Turkey, a steadfast US ally with
a large Kurd minority, would be destabilised. Iran could exploit
the vacuum.' (1 Feb. 2002, Supplement, p. III.)
Saudi Arabia has no wish to see a vibrant
democracy on its border. Thus the need for 'an iron-fisted Iraqi
junta'. Exile or coup, Iraq's weapons will remain the same; Iraq's
army will remain the same; Iraq's political system will remain
the same; Iraq's secret police will remain the same. This is
not a war of liberation. For the people of Iraq, this is just
a re-branding exercise.
Milan Rai is author of War Plan Iraq:
Ten Reasons Against War (Verso, 2002) and a member of Active
Resistance to the Roots of War (ARROW). He is also co-founder
of Voices in the Wilderness UK, which has worked for the lifting
of UN sanctions in Iraq.
Yesterday's
Features
Jo Wilding
From
Waiting to War: a Day and a Night in Baghdad
Stephen Banko
I Was
a Soldier Once
Kevin Alexander Gray
How Did
We Become an Outlaw Nation?
Shane Claiborne
Nomadic
Solidarity: Glimpses of Life in Baghdad on the Eve of War
Kathy Kelly
Waiting on the Baghdad Skies to Crack
Anthony Gancarski
Michelle
Makin's "Liberty Shields"
Rahul Mahajan and Robert
Jensen
Myths
and Facts About the War on Iraq
Jason Leopold
Cheney's
Lies About Halliburton and Iraq
Ron Jacobs
If War is Business as Usual, There Should be No Business as Usual
Chuck O'Connell
Predictions About the Iraq War
Douglas Herman
US Air Force Veteran on the Coming Air Campaign
Ralph Nader
Come
On Democrats, Stand Up for Peace
William Hughes
War is Theft
Sima Saeedi
Dispatch
from Iran
Hammond Guthrie
John Philip Sousa
Website of the Day
Iraq
Body Count
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