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Today's Stories

June 4, 2009

Arno J. Mayer
The Future of Israel and the Decline of the American Empire

June 3, 2009

Paul Craig Roberts
As the Dollar Falls Off the Cliff...

Kathy Kelly
A Weaver's Welcome to Pakistan

Alan Farago
Bailing Out the Land Speculators

Franklin Lamb
Israeli Spies and Fake IDs

Bill Hatch
Why Congressman Cardoza Stiffed Michelle Obama

Nadia Hijab
A Stifling Embrace

Dean Baker
Reporters With Pom-Poms: Cheerleading the Recovery

Binoy Kampmark
Whither GM?

Manuel Garcia, Jr.
What Happened to Air France Flight 477?

Remi Kanazi
Oslo Redux?

Behzad Yaghmaian
The End of Idealism in China?

Website of the Day
A Time Comes: the Story of the KingsNorth Six

June 2, 2009

Uri Avnery
Racists for Democracy

Robert Weissman
Bankrupt Thinking

Conn Hallinan
Shadow Wars

Gideon Spiro
Obama and Israel's Nuclear Arsenal

Roger Burbach
US-Cuba Policy: "Still Stuck in the Past"

Dylan Quigley
My Experience with Dr. Tiller

Dave Lindorff
The American Taliban Claim Another Victim

Ray McGovern
Navy Vet Honored, Foiled Israeli Attack

Belén Fernández
Israel's Newfound Concern for UNIFIL

Martha Rosenberg
Give It Up, Wyeth

Willie L. Pelote, Sr.
GOP: California's for the Rich (Poor People Should Move)

Website of the Day
You Bet Your Health

June 1, 2009

Pam Martens
Wall Street Braces for New Cops on the Beat

Yitzhak Laor
Washington's Mirror

Mark Weisbrot
More Stimulus, Not Deficit Reduction

Ramzy Baroud
Netanyahu's New Quest

Saul Landau
Dancing the Afghan Jig

Eugenia Tsao
Smug Toronto Seethes as Tamils "Go Too Far"

Afshin Rattansi
Women in Darfur: "We Saw No Evidence of Genocide"

Debra Sweet
The Murder of Dr. Tiller

Abdul Malik Mujahid
Obama's Trip Egypt and American Muslims

Bill Quigley
Haiti's Revolutionary Priest Gerard Jean-Juste: Presente!

John Wright
The Tragedy of Susan Boyle

Website of the Day
Young Neo Con Anthem

May 29-31, 2009

Alexander Cockburn
Sotomayor and the Last of the WASPs

Patrick Cockburn
Iraq: The Mother of All Corruption Scandals

Vijay Prashad
Reeling Republicans

Gary Leupp
The Destabilization of Pakistan

Ray McGovern
The Impossible Rehab of Colin Powell

Rannie Amiri
Spies, Lies and Mr. Lebanon's Demise

Bill Hatch
The Mechanic's Tale: a Short Chapter in the History of Foreclosures

Chellis Glendinning, Stephanie Mills and Kirkpatrick Sale
Three Luddites Talking ... on a Computer!

Phyllis Pollack
Dosed, But Not Spiked: an Interview with Grace Slick

David Yearsley
Eros and Susan Boyle; Fakery and Simon Cowell

Jean-Christophe Servant
A River of Acid: Mined Out in Zambia

Dave Lindorff
Sotomayor's Problem Isn't That She's Too Latina

James McEnteer
Straw Dogs: the Media and Sonia Sotomayor

Missy Beattie
A Place Called Despair

James C. Faris
On Evolution: a Critique of Darwinism

David Macaray
When Workers' Rights Go Unenforced

Harvey Wasserman
The Catastrophic Economics of Nuclear Power

Adam Federman
Drilling the Marcellus Shale Through the Halliburton Loophole

David Ker Thomson
Turtle Island: Adventures in Recycling

Mark Seth Lender
Great Egrets Return

Stephen Martin
Big Trouble in Little Britain

Joseph Nevins
Sin Nombre is Only Part of the Border Story

Sophia Mihic
Star Trek and the Continuing Mission of American Imperialism

Lorenzo Wolff
Dylan Kelehan Gets What He Needs

Poets' Basement
Fleming, Shields and Greer

Website of the Weekend
Petition: Grant Parole to Leonard Peltier

May 28, 2009

Joan Roelofs
The Philanthropies and the Economic Crisis

Paul Craig Roberts
Torture and the American Conscience

Ralph Nader
Corporate Frankensteins

Mouin Rabbani
The Dangers of False Optimism in the Middle East

Joe Bageant
Plain Truths From Appalachia: a Redneck View of Obamarama

James McEnteer
America Held Hostage

Dedrick Muhammad
Obama and the Harsh Racial Reality

Richard Morse
On Speaking Out in Haiti

David Macaray
Have We Turned Into Sheep?

Harvey Wasserman
The 8 Green Steps to Solartopia

Website of the Day
Col. Peters: Just Kill the Gitmo Detainees

May 27, 2009

Joanne Mariner
Military Commissions, Round Three

Paul Craig Roberts
Doublespeak on North Korea

Walden Bello
Can China Save the World From Depression?

Dave Lindorff
Recidivism and Guantánamo

Brian M. Downing
Along the Durand Line

Carlos Villarreal
Separate But Equal Just Fine in California?

Nadia Hijab
Israel's Next Move: Armageddon Now?

Adam Federman
The PCBs of the Hudson River

Laray Polk
RadWaste and Texas' Future

Isabella Kenfield
The Fall of a Brazilian Financier

David Michael Green
Overcoming the Poverty of Ambition

Website of the Day
The Case Against Shell

May 26, 2009

Manuel Garcia, Jr.
Fearful Pride: North Korea's Second Nuclear Test

Mike Whitney
The Next Leg Down: When Deflation Becomes Entrenched

Sharon Smith
Obama and Abortion Rights: What We Learned at Notre Dame

Marjorie Cohn
The Gitmo Appeasment Plan: Obama Buckles on the Constitution

Dean Baker
Waterboard the Fed

Deepankar Basu
Was the Indian Election a Debacle for the Left? If So, Why?

Fred Gardner
The Vindication of Sgt. Northcutt

Jordan Flaherty
New Orleans for Sale

Josh Ruebner
Rethinking the Costs of Peace

Brian Cloughley
The Man Who Murdered Count Foulke Bernadotte

Website of the Day
The Montana Town That Wants to Become the New Gitmo

May 25, 2009

Diane Christian
Looking at Torture

John Ross
Mexico's Shock Doctrine

Kenneth Hartman
The Trouble With Prison

Uri Avnery
Netanyahu Goes to Washington

Fred Gardner
"War on Pot" Overrides "Support Our Troops": the Punishment of Sgt. Northcutt

Cindy Sheehan
Day of the Dead

Sen. Russell Feingold
Prolonged Detention and the Rule of Law: a Letter to Barack Obama

Sibel Edmonds
Two Sides of the Same Coin: From State Secrets to War to Wiretaps

Franklin Lamb
Der Spiegel Tries Again

Dave Lindorff
Memorial Day in the Land of the Weak and Wussy

Daniel Wolff
Learning to Read in the Pacific Northwest

Website of the Day
Decoration Day

May 22-24, 2009

Alexander Cockburn
How Long Does It Take?

Michael Teitelman
Obama, Torture and John Walker Lindh

Mike Whitney
Credit Default Swaps: the Poison in the System

Ray McGovern
Cheney Breaks the Taboo: Support for Israel Feeds Terrorism

Sonia Cardenas /
Andrew Flibbert
Why We Love to Hate Pirates

Clive Hamilton
Biblical Prophesy and the Iraq War: Bush, God, Iraq and Gog

Conn Hallinan
Swine Flu Fallout

Fred Gardner
Sgt. Northcutt's Homecoming

Carlo Cristofori
The Latest AfPak War

Dean Baker
A Friendly Financial Intervention

Rannie Amiri
King Abdullah's 57-State Solution

Andy Worthington
A Message to Obama: No Military Commissions; No Preventive Detentions

David Macaray
Democrats Betray Labor: Card Check is Pronouced Dead

Nadia Hijab
What Kind of State?

Franklin Lamb
How Not to Win Votes for Team USA

Ted Newcomen
The Forgotten Casualties

David Ker Thomson
Joy (Or How Hope, the Thing With Feathers, Gets Plucked)

David Rosen
Porn Wars

Mark Weisbrot
Climate Change and Intellectual Property Rights?

Robert Fantina
Gitmo, Democrats and Business as Usual

Heather Gray
Some Positive Directions in Public Health?

Farzana Versey
The Myth of Manmohan Singh

Chris Genovali
A Paler Shade of Green

Ron Jacobs
His Terrible Swift Sword: the Legacy of John Brown

Jay Diamond
Why the Left Should Cheer Hannity and Limbaugh

Dr. Susan Block
The Binds That Bond

Ben Sonnenberg
"Ballast": An Endlessness of Almost Ending

David Yearsley
Handel's Ghost ... Again

Lorenzo Wolff
My Problem with Led Zeppelin

Poets' Basement
Corseri and Bohm

Website of the Weekend
Bob Graham's CIA Notebooks

May 21, 2009

Jeffrey St. Clair /
Joshua Frank
The Politics of Bait-and-Switch: Obama and the Environment

Paul Craig Roberts
Morphing Dick Cheney

Chris Floyd
In Defense of George W. Bush

Gerald Paoli
Inside Iraqi Kurdistan: Life and Death in the Qandil Mountains

Zach Mason
Something's Gotta Give: Obama and the Hustler

Uri Avnery
A Quarrel on the Titanic

Andy Worthington
Out of Guantánamo

Niranjan Ramakrishnan
India: Two Funerals and a Wedding

Norman Solomon
The Afghanistan Escalation

Dave Lindorff
A Corporate Crime Wave of Labor Law Violations

Website of the Day
Swine Flu: The Panic That Wasn't

May 20, 2009

Michael Hudson
The Toll Booth Economy

Gary Leupp
Courting Hekmatyar: Obama and the Warlord

Michael D. Yates
Work is Hell

Jonathan Cook
Netanyahu Adviser Steps Out of the Shadows

Peter Lee
The World Doesn't Have a Pakistan Nukes Problem ... It Has a David Albright Problem

Binoy Kampmark
The End of the Tamil Tigers?

Peter Zinn
Eulogizing Lawyers

William Loren Katz
Tortured Reasoning; Tortured Results

Gary Lapon
Why Women Need Single Payer

Trudy Bond
Torture, Shrinks and a Groundhog's Day Moment

Website of the Day
Meet the Climate Change Lobby

May 19, 2009

Kristoffer Rehder
Check Point Iraq: a Soldier's Tale

Mike Whitney
The Real Lesson of the Financial Crisis

Ray McGovern
How Colin Powell Got Duped by the CIA

Vijay Prashad
The Indian Elections: a Game Changer?

Mirjam Hadar Meerschwam
Intimidation and Interrogation in Tel Aviv

Mustafa Barghouthi
Is Obama Up to the Challenge of Dealing with Netanyahu?

Andy Worthington
Gitmo: A Prison Built on Lies

Binoy Kampmark
Britain's Speaker Crisis

John Walsh
John Kerry vs. Single-Payer

David Macaray
Alcohol as Metaphor: Zero Tolerance in the Workplace

Website of the Day
So You Think That Veggie Burger is Organic...

May 18, 2009

Dave Lindorff
The US is Using White Phosporous in Afghanistan

Abdul Malik Mujahid
Thirty Years of Tragedy in Afghanistan

Jonathan Cook
How Many Secret Prisons Does Israel Have?

Ben Rosenfeld
Police Violence: How Many Kicks to the Head Does It Take?

Patrick Cockburn
These Killings Will Only Strengthen the Taliban

Ralph Nader
They Want It All: New Tricks From the Old Energy Lobby

Stephen Soldz
Psychologist Bryce Lefever Clarifies Defense of Torture

Eugenia Tsao
On the Devaluation of Labor

Walter Brasch
Cheney's Magical Mystery Media Tour

Roberto Rodriguez
War and Torture

Charlotte Laws
Politics and American Idol

Website of the Day
Disbar the Torture Lawyers

May 15-17, 2009

Alexander Cockburn
King of the Hate Business

Jeffrey St. Clair
The Case of the Missing H-Bomb

David Rosen
Sexual Torture: What is Acknowledged and What Remains Unknown

Mike Whitney
From My Lai to Bala Baluk: Obama Picks Up Where Bush Left Off

Bruce Page
A Real History of Rupert Murdoch

Jeremy Scahill
The Black Shirts of Guantánamo

Fred Gardner
Tortured Reasoning: Judge Bybee Rules Against Brian Epis

Tom Barry
Fighting the Drug War at Homeland Security

Mats Svensson
On the Beach in Tel Aviv

Ramzy Baroud
The Drones Are Coming

Mark Engler
Science Fiction From Below

Mark Weisbrot
Stealth Move by IMF to Get $100 Billion Without Congressional Debate

Farzana Versey
Of Scapegoats and Separatists

Ron Jacobs
It's Up to You to Save Troy Davis

Hannah Wolfe
What to Tell the Children

Cal Winslow
Fresno, the New Ground Zero in the Battle Between the SEIU and NUHW

David Macaray
Labor Needs a Southern Strategy

Christopher Brauchli
Involuntary Baptism

Mark Seth Lender
The Lion Tamer's Story

Robert Fantina
Lapel Pins, Arugula and Mustard

David Ker Thomson
Last Man Walking

Stephen Martin
Lipstick Nightmare for Spin Merchant

Charles R. Larson
Double Exile

Chase Madar
"Angels & Demons" and the Extraordinary Power of Imaginary Heretics

Kim Nicolini
Vaginas From Outer Space! Boldly Sitting Through Star Trek

David Yearsley
Handel's Ghost

Lorenzo Wolff
Killer Virtues

Poets' Basement
Gibbons, Jordan and Moser

Website of the Weekend
Catch F-22

May 14, 2009

Michael Hudson
Where Russia Went Wrong

Andy Worthington
The Poisoned Mosaic: Judge Condemns Guantánamo Evidence

Paul Craig Roberts
The Impotent President

Jonathan Cook
The Pope's Pilgrimage: Legitimizing Netanyahu?

Ray McGovern
See No Evil: Ugly Questions for General Myers

Lance Selfa
The Limits of Liberalism

David Green
The Deportation of Demjanjuk

Dave Lindorff
Obama Channels Cheney

Frida Berrigan
Nuclear Options

Sue Udry
The Bybee Question

Website of the Day
Our Bombs: Tracking US Air Strikes

May 13, 2009

Brian M. Downing
The Road Out of Iraq

Gareth Porter
Gen. McChrystal and Afghanistan

Robert Sandels
Obama and Latin America: No Light, All Tunnel

Ricardo Alarcón
Cuba: Measure of a Revolution

Eric Walberg
NATO in Georgia: Fun and Games

Dave Lindorff
The Sinking of GM: When Captains of Industry Don't Go Down with the Ship

Deepak Tripathi
A Culture of Abuse

William S. Lind
Back to the Balkans: Hillary and the Sleeping Dragon

Kevin Zeese
A Populist Health Care Rebellion

Franklin Lamb
Lebanon: From Perdition to Redemption?

Website of the Day
Beth McIntosh: The Wild Ride

May 12, 2009

Gary Leupp
The Bomb Iran Faction

Richard Neville
The AfPak Blues: Corpses of the Kids by the Truckload

Wajahat Ali
Obama Chooses a Reliable Dictatorship

Dean Baker
The Banker Boys Are Alright! Time to End the Bailouts

Franklin Lamb
What Palestinian Refugees Need From Lebanon's Elections

Norman Solomon
A Progressive Challenge to Jane Harman

Paul Craig Roberts
Beware the Hate Crimes Bill

Lisa M. Hamilton
Let's Grow a New Crop of Farmers

Bob Fitrakis /
Harvey Wasserman:
Why Isn't Obama Turning to Credit Unions?

David Macaray
Wading Through the Grassroots

Website of the Day
Electronic Police States

May 11, 2009

Andrea Peacock
No Justice for Libby

Michael Hudson
Gordon Brown Spills the Beans on the IMF

Patrick Cockburn
Who Killed 120 Civilians?

Ralph Nader
The Single-Payer Taboo

John Kelly
Pseudoscience and Wrongful Convictions in the War on Drugs

Saul Landau
Cuba's Biggest "Crime"

Dave Lindorff
Blaming the Dead Victims

David Michael Green
Get Obama

Anthony Papa
Gov. David Paterson Does the Right Thing

Paul Krassner
Jon Stewart and Truman, the War Criminal

Website of the Day
Generational Homelessness

 

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June 4, 2009

In the Wake of the Gaza War

Paradigmatic Progress?

By MOUIN RABBANI

A look back at the 20 turbulent years that have characterized the roadmap to peace - culminating in the recent Israeli assault on Gaza - helps illuminate some potential new paths to the occupation's end.

The Israeli-Palestinian peace process was inaugurated in the aftermath of the 1991 Gulf War, with the US pressuring Israel to negotiate over the future dispensation of the occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Israel's initial strategy was to draw out the process interminably in order to avoid substantive agreements. Based on its understanding that it could not impose a unilateral capitulation on the Palestinians, Israel used the cover of diplomacy in order to consolidate control of strategic regions within the occupied territories through the expansion of its illegal settlement enterprise; prevent a further escalation of the Palestinian uprising that had erupted in 1987; drive a wedge between the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and the population of the occupied territories; and reverse the process of international ostracism that came in the wake of the June 1967 War and gained widespread traction after the 1973 October War.

The Oslo Accords

By 1993, Israel's realization that the PLO leadership ensconced in Tunisia was prepared to offer Israel terms that approximated surrender led it to reverse its core policies of rejecting negotiations with the PLO and bilateral political agreements with Palestinians.

The negotiations resulted in the Oslo Accords, which won Israel formal Palestinian recognition without a reciprocal commitment to end the occupation, or even recognize its reality. The accords also introduced a limited Palestinian self-governing regime, while conceding continued Israeli control over most occupied territory without restrictions on further colonization. Finally, although they set forth a process for conflict resolution, this was devoid of instruments for enforcement or arbitration and omitted any reference to the ultimate dispensation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

A Palestinian commitment to ensure Israeli security despite continued occupation formed the core of Oslo. Textual realities aside, the Palestinian leadership interpreted Oslo as a deal whereby its maintenance of security within the occupied territories would lay the basis for a consistent expansion of self-government culminating in statehood and independence.

Where the late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat perceived himself as defending a process (and thus used security as leverage to influence its development), his Israeli counterparts insisted that security was an absolute and unconditional commitment to be maintained irrespective of Israeli conduct - including a consistent refusal to respect either negotiated agreements or agreed timelines. For example, then-Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in December 1993 stated that "no dates are sacred," while in 2000, Ehud Barak went so far as to brag - correctly - that he had implemented even fewer of these agreements than had Binyamin Netanyahu.

The failed 2000 Camp David summit, hastily convened by former US President Bill Clinton to end more than a century of conflict in less than a fortnight, produced Oslo's inevitable collapse. Presented with the prospect of a fragmented entity under permanent Israeli control, Arafat became increasingly disengaged from fulfilling the security commitments outlined in Oslo.

Israeli unilateralism

Faced with the reality that the Palestinian leadership and security forces were in no position to protect Israeli domination ad infinitum, Barak and then Ariel Sharon replaced Oslo's bilateral framework with unilateralism, whereby the Palestinian Authority (PA) was effectively dismantled and the Israeli military resumed direct responsibility for the security of the occupation. If the Palestinian leadership would not accept Israel's version of conflict resolution, the military would impose it without an agreement, using extraordinary force and prolonged socioeconomic warfare to quash resistance and batter the captive population into submission.

The substance of Israel's permanent settlement began to take concrete form - often rather literally - in 2002. Most prominently, the West Bank Wall extended well into occupied territory, enveloping major settlement blocs, devouring agricultural land and other natural resources, encircling towns like Qalqilya and Tulkarm and hermetically sealing off East Jerusalem.

In August 2005, Israel unilaterally 'disengaged' from the Gaza Strip, withdrawing its soldiers and settlers while retaining complete control over what had effectively been transformed into the world's largest open-air prison. As Sharon and other Israeli leaders stated at the time, Gaza disengagement was intended to thwart the prospect of renewed international engagement while diverting attention from continued settlement expansion in the West Bank.

Disengagement had the additional benefit of further fragmenting the occupied territories, particularly after the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) won the 2006 PA legislative elections and in June 2007 seized power in the territory to preempt a US-sponsored coup to restore the hegemony of Arafat's successor, Mahmoud Abbas.

Renewed engagement

Ironically, unilateralism had by this point created the conditions for renewed engagement. On the one hand, Israel's post-2000 policies outlined above and Washington's active support facilitated the rise of Abbas, a stalwart opponent of armed resistance since the mid-1970s and devoted elitist who holds Hamas, the Palestinian National Liberation Movement (Fatah) he ostensibly leads and their combined constituencies in equal contempt.

At the same time, disengagement deprived his agenda of a negotiated partnership with Israel. This loss was significant for Abbas given his longstanding preparedness to reach a settlement that would run roughshod over Palestinian rights and aspiration. In 1995, for example, he affixed his name to a joint proposal with Yosi Beilin that would have inter alia rebranded the village of Abu Dis as Al-Quds (as Jerusalem is known in the Arabic language) and proclaimed it the united and eternal capital of the Palestinian people, thereby leaving Israel in sole control of the city known universally - including to Abbas' own people - as Jerusalem.

Indeed, it was Hamas and resistance rather than Abbas and negotiation that claimed responsibility for Israel's evacuation of the Gaza Strip. It was thus Arafat and Abbas' strategic failure to negotiate an end to occupation, more than popular disenchantment with the corruption and mismanagement of their administrations, which primarily accounted for Hamas' 2006 electoral sweep.

Desperate to avoid a further strengthening of Hamas in the West Bank in the aftermath of its rout of Abbas' forces in Gaza, Washington latched onto the idea of renewed Israeli-Palestinian partnership, including a resumption of peace negotiations, as a core component of its efforts to resuscitate Abbas' ailing fortunes. His Israeli counterpart Ehud Olmert, sensing that he could succeed where Barak had failed and determined to oblige his American sponsors, discarded his electoral platform - West Bank disengagement - and started meeting regularly with Abbas.

If the possibility for a two-state settlement died with Rabin's assassination and was buried with his Palestinian counterpart Arafat's passing, Olmert and Abbas sought to revive it in different form. Specifically, the two leaders were largely motivated by narrow factional considerations to shore up their increasingly tenuous domestic standing, and in both cases proved considerably more forthcoming than their predecessors at Camp David. Yet their joint effort to forge a peace treaty - one that would have made a complete mockery of a viable framework for Israeli-Palestinian coexistence - nevertheless failed.

At the end of the day, the maximum Israel was prepared to offer remained well short of the minimum that a highly accommodating Palestinian leader confronted with militant challenges to his legitimacy could accept.

The Gaza war

Israel's war on the Gaza Strip was in large part fought to ensure that Abbas could make way for a highly attenuated form of Palestinian statehood. Remove Hamas from Gaza, the thinking goes, and he'll effortlessly sprint to the finish line of statehood.

In this sense, the campaign was a complete failure. Hamas emerged from the ordeal significantly strengthened. Abbas, widely derided as at best a spineless spectator while his partner in peace, Olmert, was slaughtering his people by the hundreds, has been compelled to drop his array of preconditions for dialogue with the Islamists and currently engages them on a regular basis in Egyptian-sponsored talks.
Similarly, Abbas is under unprecedented strain from various Fatah quarters, for many of whom his conduct during Gaza's ordeal underlined the need for the development of a meaningful strategy. For their part, the Islamists appear more determined than ever to claim their share of the Palestinian political system, and revise its political program to reflect the bankruptcy of the Oslo years.

That said, Abbas continues to conduct himself as if he emerged from the Gaza conflict as its only victor. To this day, and in a transparent attempt to extract political benefit from Israel's recent onslaught - he continues to insist that Hamas accept the Quartet's preconditions for engagement with any PA government as the price for reconciliation - this at a time when these conditions are rapidly losing popularity even among the ranks of its authors. (Russia already deals openly with Hamas, while key EU states have lowered the bar by their willingness to deal with any PA unity government that does not accept the Quartet conditions provided it does not explicitly reject them).

Likewise when it comes to the reform of the Palestinian security forces, Abbas insists that Fatah and Hamas should integrate only in the Gaza Strip, providing him a renewed foothold in territory controlled by Hamas while continuing to exclude Hamas from the West Bank.

Just as Abbas cannot accept an agreement with Hamas that legitimizes resistance to Israeli occupation, so the Islamists cannot acquiesce to a formula that endorses Oslo and Annapolis- whether in terms of open-ended diplomacy or continued security cooperation with Israel. Either would be an act of self-negation requiring too high a political price. Absent consensus on the big issues, meaningful agreement on interim measures seems equally unlikely because any equitable agreement will be seen as a mechanism for the other to gain traction in what has been hegemonic turf since the factional conflict of mid-2007.

Given that one issue the parties have agreed upon is the conduct of new presidential and legislative elections in early 2010, one might conclude that the only viable option is to grin and bear it until the electorate breaks the deadlock. Yet here again, the commitment to participate in these elections in the absence of national reconciliation in 2009 should not be taken for granted. Nor should the determination of the US, EU and Israel to sabotage Palestinian democracy be underestimated - including episodes like the US-sponsored coup preparations, the diplomatic boycott of the post-2006 PA government and the refusal to provide reconstruction assistance to Gaza after the war earlier this year.

Ultimately, Abbas' confidence derives from his conviction that Obama will act where Bush failed and that active US engagement makes Israeli recalcitrance irrelevant and will enable him to outflank and marginalize Hamas - and, judging by his recent appointment of a government despite vehement opposition from within his own movement, Fatah as well.

While it stands to reason that Obama will seek to reinvigorate Bush's framework for addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, it is far from clear this will prove a boon to the intended beneficiary.

For one, the Islamists have sufficient power on the ground to deal effectively with any effort to strengthen their rival and cut them down to size. Perhaps more importantly, Palestinian popular opinion, while not necessarily supportive of Hamas' own program, appears to be swinging decisively against any revival of a process that exists for its own sake rather than for an irreversible end to occupation.

Mouin Rabbani is a Senior Fellow at the Institute for Palestine Studies.

 

 

 

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