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October 10,
2001
Inside
Afghanistan
Looming Ground War Sparks
Flood of Afghani Refugees
By Patrick Cockburn
in
the Panjshir Valley
The Independent
Northern Afghanistan is now on the verge
of all-out conflict, prompting people across the country to prepare
to flee their homes and increasing the likelihood of an overwhelming
humanitarian crisis.
The reason for the mass flight
is less the American and British air attacks than fear that a
savage ground war is about to erupt between the Taliban and its
enemies, the Northern Alliance.
Mohammed Faroq, a local security
official in the Northern Alliance, said: "We have already
ordered people to leave their houses if they live close to the
frontline and tens of thousands of others will leave if the fighting
increases."
In the fertile Shomali plain,
north of Kabul, up to 800,000 may have to flee their mud-brick
villages.
In opposition-held parts of
northern Afghanistan, few refugees have as yet arrived. "This
is because life in Kabul is still fairly normal despite the bombings,"
said another security officer who identified himself only as
Omeria, citing a cousin who had just arrived from the capital.
"Electricity is off, but this is because the Taliban have
imposed a blackout to confuse the US pilots. Otherwise, the shops
are open."
People leaving Kabul include
taxi and truck drivers using their vehicles to get their families
out of the city, he said. "This means that, unless you have
your car, it is difficult to find anybody to drive you, though
the Taliban checkpoints are letting people through."
The danger is that in a few
days the multiple rocket launchers and howitzers visible beside
many roads will start firing into the closely-packed villages
on the other side. Few villagers have cellars to hide in and
so will have to flee.
It has all happened before.
In a bleak part of the Panjshir valley, about 10,000 people from
the frontline village of Karabagh--from which they were driven
by the Taliban three years ago--have pitched their white tents
on stony ground near the village of Anaba.
"We wanted to stay, but
when the Taliban advanced they drove us out of our houses and
set fire to them," said Abdul Khalil, formerly the librarian
in the village school. "They killed some of the young men
and even the women."
A man with a grey beard called
Shot Mohammed, who said he was 53 but looked 20 years older,
exclaimed: "Even the Russians were better than the Taliban."
The Karabagh refugees have not received any outside food aid
for nine months. "We live on stuff like this," said
Shot Mohammed, holding out some dried corn.
He had owned a small teashop
in Karabagh and spoke nostalgically of its grapes and fruit trees.
Like the others in Anaba, all Tajiks, he liked the idea of the
United States bombing the Taliban because it allowed him to hope
that he could soon go home.
Shot Mohammed thought that
the American idea of dropping food as well as bombs was a nice
gesture, but did not seem to take the idea very seriously. "I
pray that a three or four kilo box of food lands near my tent,"
he said to laughter from the other refugees.
There are jobs for the refugees
from Karabagh, but only of one kind. All those who said they
were employed turned out to be soldiers in the Northern Alliance's
army. A black-bearded man called Feruz said: "I am just
back from the front to see my family. There are many soldiers
here in the camp."
It is not necessary to be a
refugee in Afghanistan to be poor and underfed. Local health
workers say that about 80 per cent of children who live in the
Shomali plain are malnourished.
Apart from war, the only way
for families to make money is to send one or more of their sons
abroad to work, usually to Iran, where there are already two
million Afghan refugees.
Most Afghans live lives of
terrible insecurity. Muktar Mohammed, the bodyguard of a Northern
Alliance general, confided at the military airport at Bagram
that the rest of his family all live in Isfahan in Iran. "They
had no choice but to go," he said. "I've been a soldier
seven years, but four years ago my unit attacked the Taliban
and when they counter-attacked I was captured.
"They put me in Kabul
jail and my family had nothing to live on, so they went to Iran.
I was eventually exchanged, but by that time they had gone. I
have not seen them since."
Taliban Defections
Multiply
Forty Taliban commanders leading
1,200 men have defected to the opposition and cut off one of
the last remaining road links between the Taliban in Kabul and
their forces in the north, the opposition Northern Alliance claimed
on Tuesday.
Dr Abdullah Abdullah, the foreign
minister of the opposition Northern Alliance, jubilantly announced
the defections and the closure of the only road linking north
and south Afghanistan. "About 40 commanders with 1,200 men
under arms joined the alliance and closed the Bagram-Bamiyan
road to the Taliban on Monday night," he said. "There
wasn't any fighting, they basically came right over. Without
that road the Taliban can only supply the north of Afghanistan
by the road leading from Kabul all the way to the west via Herat."
The defections, if confirmed,
would be a severe blow to the Taliban, virtually cutting off
their southern power base from cities they hold in the north,
where they face rebellion from ethnic minorities. The Northern
Alliance has long blocked the Salang Pass, which commands the
main road linking Kabul with cities in the north.
The Bagram to Bamiyan road
reported to have been closed by the deserters is the main detour
linking Kabul with the pivotal northern cities of Kunduz and
Mazar-i-Sharif. As a result, Taliban forces will only be able
to supply the northeast by the highway across western Afghanistan
and the city of Herat, a much longer route. Dr Abdullah said
the defections would make the north very difficult for the Taliban
to control. "It has put the Taliban in northern Afghanistan
in a very difficult situation, the most difficult situation in
all their years."
Mazar-i-Sharif, hit hard in
the first two nights of American and British bombing raids, has
been identified by Pentagon military planners as a target because
of the numbers of Taliban forces dug in there. The dusty town
has for years been a hub for Taliban efforts to defeat the Northern
Alliance.
The belief in Washington is
that if Taliban fighters in bases near the city are expelled
and supplies cut off, the regime's defences in eastern Afghanistan
would be vulnerable. That would give the opposition the opening
it needs to break down Taliban defences and take control over
most of the north of the country.
The battle for Mazar-i-Sharif,
which is populated by ethnic Uzbeks, has been raging for years
because of its strategic importance both to the Taliban and their
Tajik enemies who dominate the Northern Alliance.
According to American officials,
the Taliban have up to 60,000 soldiers throughout Afghanistan
but there have been reports of negotiations with potential defectors.
The Pentagon believes the number of reliable Taliban soldiers
could drop from 60,000 to 20,000 in a week, and views defections
as crucial to its aim of breaking the morale and will of the
Taliban--at least as important as destroying their missile sites
and artillery.
Dr Abdullah has been forecasting
mass defections and an implosion in the ranks of the Taliban
since Sunday, when he was informed by the Americans that air
strikes were about to begin. "We knew these people and we
knew that under these circumstances they would have no choice."
The Americans had been informed of the development, he said last
night. "They are pleased." CP
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