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November 2, 2007 Dr.
Mary Pipher
November 1, 2007 Paul
Craig Roberts Patrick
Cockburn Dave
Lindorff Jonathan
Feldman Mike
Ferner William
S. Lind Diana
Johnstone Jacob
Hornberger A..K.
Gupta Lyuba
Zarsky / Felice
Pace Website
of the Day
October 31, 2007 Bill
Quigley Rev.
William E. Alberts Ray
McGovern Eric
Walberg V.
G. Smith Luis
J. Rodriguez Sheldon
Richman Walter
Brasch Website
of the Day
David
Price M.
Shahid Alam Andy
Worthington Patrick
Cockburn Anthony
Papa Floyd
Rudmin Sherwood
Ross Website
of the Day
October 29, 2007 Lisa
Hajjar Joe
DeRaymond Patrick
Cockburn Isabella
Kenfield / Fred
Gardner Farzana
Versey Stephen
Fleischman Marcelle
Cendrars Eamonn
McCann Martha
Rosenberg Website
of the Day
October 27 / 28, 2007 Alexander
Cockburn Jeffrey
St. Clair James
Bovard Ralph
Nader M.
Reza Pirbhai Robert
Sandels Jacob
G. Hornberger Missy
Beattie John
Ross Robert
Fantina Ron
Jacobs Ali
Moayedian David
Michael Green Poets
Basement Website
of the Day
October 26, 2007 Brian
Cloughley Saul
Landau Ahmad
Al-Akras Franklin
Lamb Mike
Whitney Dave
Lindorff Alan
Farago Yifat
Susskind Website
of the Day
Jeffrey
St. Clair / Manuel
Garcia, Jr. Paul
Craig Roberts Col.
Dan Smith Alan
Farago Chris
Kutalik Brian
McKinlay Cindy
Sheehan Website
of the Day
October 24, 2007 Natalie
Washington-Weik Andy
Worthington Michael
Birmingham Corporate
Crime Reporter Tariq
Ali Farzana
Versey Dave
Zirin James
Murren Todd
Chretien Martha
Rosenberg Website
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October 23, 2007 Ralph
Nader Lawrence
R. Velvel Vijay
Prashad Bonnie
Bricker / Dave
Lindorff Mike
Whitney Farzana
Versey Stanley
Heller / Marcelle
Cendrars Regan
Boychuk Website
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October 22, 2007 Ishmael
Reed Marjorie
Cohn Rannie
Amiri Diane
Farsetta Todd
Alan Price Robert
Jensen Stephen
Lendman Jemima
Khan Sunsara
Taylor Binoy
Kampmark Website
of the Day
October 20 / 21, 2007 Alexander
Cockburn Tariq
Ali Jeffrey
St. Clair Andy
Worthington Mike
Whitney Daniel
Wolff David
Rosen Saul
Landau Ron
Jacobs Robert
Fantina David
Heleniak Joe
Allen Prairie
Miller Poets'
Basement Website
of the Weekend
October 19, 2007 John
Ross Sheldon
Rampton Rahul
Mahajan Devra
Davis Christopher
Brauchli Wadner
Pierre Bill
Quigley Website
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October 18, 2007 Saree
Makdisi Meg
Dwyer Alevtina
Rea Norman
Solomon Kristoffer
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Wasserman Website
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October 17, 2007 Steve
Niva Andy
Worthington Alan
Farago Russell
Mokhiber Sharon
Smith Mike
Whitney Robert
Fantina Chris
Irwin Website
of the Day October 16, 2007 Peter
Linebaugh Paul
Findley Robert
Bryce Uri
Avnery Paul
Craig Roberts Ray
McGovern Norman
Solomon Martha
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S. Lind Joel
S. Hirschborn Website
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November 2, 2007 Oil, China and AutomobilesThe Falling Dollar and the Stubborn Trade DeficitBy PETER MORICI Since October 2006, the euro has risen about 13 percent against the dollar but don't expect dramatic improvements in the U.S. trade deficit until China and other Asian exporters permit their currencies to rise significantly too. Large U.S. trade deficits and excessive foreign borrowing are driving down the dollar against the euro, the British pound and several other currencies. American and European businesses compete intensely in global markets, and a cheaper dollar advantages U.S. exporters. Since October 2006, U.S. monthly exports have jumped $14 billion. Yet, the U.S. trade deficit, though fluctuating month to month, remains about $58 billion, because oil prices are rising, and the Peoples Bank of China and other Asian central banks have stepped up purchases of dollars and other foreign securities to keep their currencies cheap. Oil, Chinese consumer goods, and automobiles account for about 98 percent of the U.S, trade deficit. Net imports of petroleum are about $24 billion, up from $5.5 billion in December 2001. Retuning conventional gasoline engines, hybrids, nuclear power, and alternative energy sources could substantially reduce oil consumption. These solutions require national leadership, but both Republican and Democratic Party leaders have failed to champion comprehensive policies to accomplish what is possible. Meanwhile, a falling dollar drives up the oil import bill, because petroleum is priced in dollars and a cheaper dollar permits foreign consumers, who earn their incomes in other currencies, to aggressively bid up the price. No surprise, oil seems headed for $100 a barrel. The bilateral trade deficit with China is about $23 billion, up from $5.5 billion in December 2001, in large measure because China keeps the yuan cheap. That makes Chinese products in U.S. stores artificially inexpensive, and U.S. exports to China too costly. China revalued the yuan from 8.28 to 8.11 in July 2005, and has since permitted the yuan to rise 3.4 percent every twelve months. Modernization raises the true underlying value of the yuan more than 5 percent a year, and it remains 40 to 50 percent undervalued. Automotive products contribute $10.1 billion to the monthly deficit. Mexico and Canada account for $3.6 billion, reflecting the cross-border supply chains of the Detroit automakers. Those production decisions change only slowly. For example, GM has announced its exports will not be much altered by the decline in the dollar. German automakers account for $1.7 billion of the trade deficit, but U.S. imports of their products are mostly higher-priced models within their vehicle classes. Total sales will not greatly respond to price changes driven by exchange rate movements. Korean and Japanese automotive products account for $4.7 billion of the deficit, and a large share face fierce price competition. Having successful assembly facilities in the United States, Asian manufacturers could move more production here, but the won has risen only about 4 percent against the dollar, and the yen has gained much less. The central banks of Japan and Korea have aggressively stepped up sales of yen and won for U.S. dollars and other securities to keep their currencies cheap against the dollar. This discourages Toyota, Hyundai and others from moving more auto assembly and sourcing to the United States. The International Monetary Fund publishes Central Bank holdings of dollars and other securities, providing an accurate picture of currency market intervention. China and several other countries have increased intervention to keep their currencies cheap against the dollar. This forces the U.S. dollar lower against the euro, British pound and Canadian dollar, which generally float without central bank intervention.
In 2007, these central banks' purchases of predominantly U.S. dollar-denominated securities will exceed $900 billion and the U.S. trade deficit. It is fashionable to tag the U.S. federal budget deficit for these purchases, but this deficit is on track to be only $200 billion in 2007. Currency manipulation is not about funding U.S. federal spending, it is about boosting exports to the United States. The fall in the dollar against the euro gave U.S. exports a boost, showing exchange adjustments can have their intended effects on the trade deficit. However, until the United States does something about its appetite for oil and China and other mercantilist states stop manipulating their currencies, the United States will continue to have large trade deficits. Peter Morici is a professor at the University of
Maryland School of Business and former Chief Economist at the
U.S. International Trade Commission.
STEPHEN GREEN reports on the real motivations behind Israel's MISSILE STRIKE on SYRIA. PETER MONTAGUE on the NUCLEAR RENAISSANCE or How the Nuke Industry is using Gore's Prize and Global Warming to Plot Its Big Comeback. WILLIAM BLUM on the DEVALUING of "ANTI-SEMITE" or How to Make a Term Meaningless. Get your copy today by subscribing online or calling 1-800-840-3683 Remember contributions to CounterPunch are tax-deductible. Click here to make a donation. If you find our site useful please: Subscribe Now ![]()
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