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Today's
Stories
July 20, 2006
William S. Lind
Why Hezbollah is Winning
Robert Jensen
Florida Puts History on Probation
John Ross
AMLO Presidente!
Tom Hayden
I Was Israel's Dupe
Paul Craig Roberts
The Unfolding Horror Show
July 19, 2006
Patrick Cockburn
Massacres Soar in Central Iraq: Maliki Government Discredited
Trish Schuh
Israel Targets, Flattens Beirut TV Station HQ
Jonathan Cook
Is Israel Using Arab Villages As Human Shields?
Vicente Navarro
The Spanish Civil War, 70 Years On: The Deafening Silence on Franco's Genocide
July 17 / 18 2006
Mike Whitney
Israel's Shameful Attack on Gaza
Kathleen Christison Atrocities in the Promised Land
July 14 / 15,
2006
Weekend Edition
Alexander Cockburn
How
Venice is Dying
Tanya Reinhart
The IDF is Hungry for War
Robert Fisk
Beirut Waits: Is Damascus the Key?
Daniel Cassidy
How the Irish Invented Jazz
Winslow Wheeler
Pentagon Budget Gimmickry: When a Cut is Actually an Increase
Hugh O'Shaughnessy
In Amazonia: Slavery and Deforestation
M. Shahid Alam
Israel, the US and the New Orientalism
William S. Lind
Two Signposts in Iraq
Ramzy Baroud
Racism Plagues Media Coverage of Gaza Assault
Gilad Atzmon
Echoes of the Wehrmacht
Elizabeth Weill-Greenberg
Railroading Your Rights
Samar Assad
A History of Israeli-Palestinian Prisoner Exchanges
Ron Jacobs
Japan and Pre-Emptive Strikes: Why Would They Want to Go There?
Lee Ballinger
A New Kind of Jim Crow?
Walter Brasch
A World Without Fajitas?: the Rightwing's Language Police
Dave Lindorff
The Bush Swingers?: They Broke the Law and People Died
Clifton Ross
Up from Below in Oaxaca
Tom Crumpacker
Planning for the Re-Colonization of Cuba
Ricardo Alarcon
The Mad Annexationist
William Hughes
Rev. Billy Graham: A War-Monger in the Pulpit
Susie Day
Bugging Hillary
Farrah Hassen
The Road to Gitmo: Dramatizing the Banality of Evil
Poets' Basement
Smith-Ferri, Engel and Davies
July 13, 2006
Saul Landau
Lies as Patriotism?
Youmans / Erakat
Divestment, Corporate Engagement
and Israel
Dave Lindorff
Cut and Run: a Winning Strategy
Ron Jacobs
Dogs of War Barking at the Moon
Col. Dan Smith
Iraq: Fool Me Twice
June 22, 2006
Marjorie Cohn
Friendly Fire Ambush
Winslow T. Wheeler
Lockheed, the Senator and the F-22
Tanya Reinhart
A Week of Israeli Restraint
Mike Marqusee
The Forest Gate Raid
William Blum
Why Bush's Iraq is Worse Than Saddam's
June 21, 2006
Ramzy Baroud
Zarqawi's Death: Myth vs. Reality
Patrick Cockburn
Embassy Work as Death Sentence
Gary Leupp
Making the Case for Impeachment
Greg Moses
Elite Logic at the Border
June 20, 2006
Fred Gardner
The Long War on Aspirin
Omar Waraich
Ode to Joy: Watching Blair Sink
Christopher Reed
Japan Nixes Payments to Its Wartime
Slaves
CP Newswire
Coca Cola Takes a Hit
Jonathan Cook
Israel Engineers Another Cover-Up
June 19, 2006
Bill Quigley
HUD's Bulldozers and the Poor of
New Orleans
John Walsh
Tears of a Clown: Al Franken's War
Mike Whitney
The Zoom Lens War: Bush's Baghdad
Photo Op
Alexander Cockburn
The Left and the Blathersphere
June 16 / 18, 2006
Weekend Edition
Kathy / Bill Christision
The
Power of the Israel Lobby
Joseph Nevins
On the Migrant Trail: No More Walls, No More Deaths
Farrah Hassen
An Interview with Syria's Ambassador to the US, Dr. Imad Moustapha
Greg Moses
The Real Mission of the Uniformed Ghost at the Border
Nicole Colson
"There's No Hope at Gitmo"
John Scagliotti
How MoveOn Wastes Its Donors' Money
Mokhiber / Weissmann
Corporate Democrats
June 15, 2006
Kathy Kelly
Look
Them in the Eye: Honest Abe and the Residents of Ramadi
Norman Solomon
Premature Triangulation: Hillary's Big Problem
Ron Jacobs
Publicity
Stunts as Public Policy
Sam Bahour
Cover Up on Gaza Beach
Ramzy Baroud
Palestine on the Brink
CounterPunch Wire
Death Squads at Colombia's Universities
Gabriel Kolko
Why
a Global Economic Deluge Looms
Website of the Day
Antje Duvekot: Music You've Been Waiting Years to Hear
June 14, 2006
Nicole Colson
"They
Want the Fear Level at a High Pitch": An Interview with Lawyer
Lynne Stewart
Jonathan Cook
Israeli
Law and Order
Joseph Schechla
Bulldozing Palestine: an Open Letter to Caterpillar, Inc.
Michael Carmichael
Bolton at Oxford: Jeered and Taunted
Evelyn Pringle
Karl and George, the Teflon Partnership
Ward Churchill
My Trial By Media: Turning Quibbles Over Footnotes into Felonies
Rev. William E. Alberts
Decoding the Coders of Christ: Jesus the Political Insurgent?
Website of the Day
Marines Iraq Snuff Film
June 13, 2006
Medea Benjamin
Take
Back America Suppresses Anti-War Dissenters at HRC Speech
Anthony Alessandrini
The
Evil of Banality: the General, the New York Times and the Gitmo
Suicides
Paul D'Amato
The
Meaning of Haditha
Dave Lindorff
The Strange Death of Zarqawi: Was He Killed So He Wouldn't Talk?
John Ross
Elections and the World Cup: If Team Mexico Advances, Will Anyone
Show Up to Vote for Lopez Obrador?
Gabriel Garcia
Venezuela and Drug Trafficking: Bush Bashes Chavez Despite Positive
Results
Hilton Obenzinger
DIvestment is a Stand for Equality in Israel
Yitzhak Laor
The Secret of Authority
Juan Antonio Ocasio
Rivera
Puerto Rico at the UN
Jennifer Van Bergen
The
Story Behind Zarqawi's Death: What's the Legality of the Assassination?
Website of the Day
Paul Wright: a Real American Freedom Fighter
June 12, 2006
Paul Craig Roberts
Bush's
Armageddon Wish: a Final End to History?
Patrick Cockburn
The
US Already Misses Zarqawi
Mike Marqusee
Rebranding
a Team: English Nationalism and the World Cup
Lee Sustar
"I
Never Had the American Dream:" Left with No Future by GM and
Delphi
Robert Fisk
Has
Racism Invaded Canada?
Michael J. Smith
Enter Sandman; Exit Kosland
Felice Pace
NPR's Warped Covereage of the MIddle East
Jennifer Loewenstein
Setting
the Record Straight on Hamas
Website of the Day
Our Way Home
June 10 / 11, 2006
Weekend Edition
Robert Fisk
Zarqawi's
End is not a Famous Victory
Diane Christian
Zarqawi's Face
Joe Allen
The American Way of Atrocities: Marine Corps' Killer Virtues
Ralph Nader
Let Us All Praise the Dixie Chicks
Fred Gardner
Tylenol Toxicity Terror
Dave Lindorff
Nothing New About Haditha
Dave Zirin / John
Cox
Will Racism Spoil the World Cup?
Dennis Perrin
Death is Patriotic: Necro-Porn, Live on CNN
Greg Moses
Militarizing the Border: Why Operation Jump Start Worries Me
John Chuckman
Terror in Toronto or Tempest in a Teapot?
Michael J. Smith
Babes in Kosland: Dem Blogfest, Day Two
Roger Burbach
Bachelet in DC: Chilean President Refuses to Back Down to Bush
Ira Moskowitz
Israeli Court Finds Mad-Dog US Prof Libeled CounterPuncher Neve
Gordon
Sam Bahour
The Gaza Air Strikes: Begging for a Response
Seth Sandronsky
Grocery Chains and Bush's Ownership Society: Profits Fall, Stores
Close
Michael Berg
A Father's Day Message: Both Parties Have Betrayed America
Kirsten Roberts
Desmond Dekker and the Music of the Shantytowns
Ron Jacobs
Who's Fooling Who?
Jeffrey St. Clair
Playlist: What I'm Listening to This Week
Poets' Basement
Jones, Davies, Engel and Louise
Website of the Weekend
Miles and Trane, So What?
| July 20, 2006
This is Not 1982 and Nasrallah Isn’t Arafat
Why Hezbollah is Winning... So Far
By WILLIAM S. LIND
The stakes in the Israel-Hezbollah-Hamas war are significantly higher than most observers understand. If Hezbollah and Hamas win—and winning just means surviving, given that Israel’s objective is to destroy both entities—a powerful state will have suffered a new kind of defeat, again, a defeat across at least one international boundary and maybe two, depending on how one defines Gaza’s border. The balance between states and “fourth generation warfare” forces will be altered world-wide, and not to a trivial degree.
So far, Hezbollah is winning. As Arab states stood silent and helpless before Israel’s assault on Hamas, another non-state entity, Hezbollah, intervened to relieve the siege of Gaza by opening a second front. Its initial move, a brilliantly conducted raid that killed eight Israeli soldiers and captured two for the loss of one Hezbollah fighter, showed once again that Hezbollah can take on state armed forces on even terms (the Chechens are the only other 4GW force to demonstrate that capability). In both respects, the contrast with Arab states will be clear on the street, pushing the Arab and larger Islamic worlds further away from the state.
Hezbollah then pulled off two more firsts. It responded effectively to terror bombing from the air, which state think is their monopoly, with rocket barrages that reached deep into Israel. Once can only imagine how this resonated world-wide with people who are often bombed but can never bomb back. And, it attacked another state monopoly, navies, by hitting and disabling a blockading Israeli warship with something (I question Israel’s claim that the weapon was a C-801 anti-ship missile, which should have sunk a small missile corvette). Hezbollah’s leadership has promised more such surprises.
In response, Israel has had to hit not Hezbollah but the state of Lebanon. Israel’s Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, referring to the initial Hezbollah raid, said, “I want to make clear that the event this morning is not a terror act but the act of a sovereign state that attacked Israel without reason.” This is an obvious fiction, as the state of Lebanon had nothing to do with the raid and cannot control Hezbollah. But it is a necessary fiction for Israel, because otherwise who can it respond against? Again we see the power 4GW entities obtain by hiding within states but not being a state.
What comes next? In the short run, the question may be which runs out first, Hezbollah’s supply of rockets or the world’s patience with Israel bombing the helpless state of Lebanon. If the latter continues much longer, the Lebanese government may collapse, undoing one of America’s few recent successes in the Islamic world.
The critical question is whether the current fighting spreads region-wide. It is possible that Hezbollah attacked Israel not only to relieve the siege of Hamas in Gaza but also to pre-empt an Israeli strike on Iran. The current Iranian government is not disposed to sit passively like Saddam and await an Israeli or American attack. It may have given Hezbollah a green light in order to bog Israel down locally to the point where it would not also want war with Iran.
However, Israel’s response may be exactly the opposite. Olmert also said, “Nothing will deter us, whatever far-reaching ramifications regarding our relations on the northern border and in the region there may be.” The phrase “in the region” could refer to Syria, Iran or both.
If Israel does attack Iran, the “summer of 1914” analogy may play itself out, catastrophically for the United States. As I have warned many times, war with Iran (Iran has publicly stated it would regard an Israeli attack as an attack by the U.S. also) could easily cost America the army it now has deployed in Iraq. It would almost certainly send shock waves through an already fragile world economy, potentially bringing that house of cards down. A Bush administration that has sneered at “stability” could find out just how high the price of instability can be.
It is clear what Washington needs to do to try to prevent such an outcome: publicly distance the U.S. from Israel while privately informing Mr. Olmert that it will not tolerate an Israeli strike on Iran. Unfortunately, Israel is to America what Serbia was to Russia in 1914. That may be the most disturbing aspect of the “summer of 1914” analogy.
William Lind, expressing his own personal opinion, is Director for the Center for Cultural Conservatism for the Free Congress Foundation.
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