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When Hamas won the Palestinian elections,
a highly successful Fourth Generation entity became a state.
No doubt that was one of Hamas's highest aspirations. But by
becoming a state, it became far more vulnerable to other states
than it was as a non-state entity. How Hamas deals with this
problem may say a great deal about the future of Fourth Generation
war.
Hamas may have presumed that once it won a free election, other
states, including the United States and Israel, would have to
recognize its legitimacy. Great expectations are seldom fulfilled
in the amoral world of international politics. When the Washington
Establishment calls for "free elections," what it means
is elections that elect the people it wants to deal with. Hamas
does not fall in that category. Washington therefore greeted
Hamas's electoral victory with a full-court press to destroy
the new Hamas leadership of the Palestinian Authority, a "state"
that bears a state's burdens with none of a state's assets. Both
Machiavelli and Metternich were no doubt delighted by this act
of Wilsonian hypocrisy, a variety that often exceeds their own
and does so with a straight face, an act they could never quite
master, being gentlemen.
In cooperation with Israel (can Washington now do anything except
in cooperation with Israel?), the U.S. imposed a starvation blockade
on the Palestinian territories. Instead of British armored cruisers,
the blockaders this time are U.S. banking laws, plus Israeli
withholding of Palestinian tax receipts. As the government of
a quasi-state, Hamas found itself with no money. PA employees
went unpaid and PA services, such as they were, largely collapsed.
The burden, as always, fell on average Palestinians.
In the past week, Israel has upped the ante by threatening a
full-scale military attack on Gaza. The Israelis had already
been escalating quietly, a raid here, a missile there, artillery
shells somewhere else. With Palestinian civilians dying, Hamas
had to respond. It did so with a raid on an Israeli army post,
a legitimate military target. (Attacks on military targets are
not "terrorism.") The well-planned and brilliantly
conducted raid (so well done as to suggest Hezbollah assistance)
killed two Israeli soldiers and captured one.
Normally, that captured Israeli would be a Hamas asset. But now
that Hamas is a state, it has discovered Cpl. Gilad Shalit is
a major liability. Israel is refusing all deals for his return.
If Hamas returns him without a deal, it will be humiliated. If
it continues to hold him, Israel will up the military pressure;
it is already destroying PA targets such as government offices
and arresting PA cabinet members. If it kills him, the Israeli
public will back whatever revenge strikes the Israeli military
wants. Hamas is now far more targetable than it was as a non-state
entity, but is no better able to defend itself or Palestine than
it was as Fourth Generation force. 4GW forces are generally unable
to defend territory or fixed targets against state armed forces,
but they have no reason to do so. Now, as a quasi-state, Hamas
must do so or appear to be defeated.
Does the sign really say "No Exit" for Hamas? It may--so
long as Hamas remains a state, or has aspirations to be one.
Washington's and Tel Aviv's obvious goal is to push the Hamas
government to the point where it must choose between a humanitarian
catastrophe for the Palestinian people and resignation, with
the return of corrupt and complaint Fatah to power. Either way,
Hamas will have suffered an enormous defeat, to the point where
it is unlikely to be a serious alternative ever again.
There is, however, another way out for Hamas. It can call and
raise Washington's and Tel Aviv bets. How? By voting to dissolve
the Palestinian Authority. Ending the PA would dump the Palestinian
territories and their inhabitants' right back in Israel's lap.
Under international law, as the occupying power, Israel would
be responsible for everything in the territories: security, human
services, utilities and infrastructure, the economy, the whole
megillah (oy!). Israel could try to restore the PA in cooperation
with Fatah, but if Fatah joined Israel in doing so, it would
destroy what legitimacy it has left. Hamas could meanwhile return
to a 4GW war against Israel, unencumbered with the dubious assets
of a state, and with lots more targets as Israel attempted to
run the Palestinian Territories itself.
Hamas faces what may be a defining moment, not only for itself
but for Fourth Generation entities elsewhere. Does it want the
trappings of a state so much that it will render itself targetable
as a state, or can it see through the glitter of being "cabinet
ministers" and the like and go instead for substance by
retaining non-state status? To be or not to be a state, that
is the question--for Hamas and soon enough for other 4GW entities
as well.
William S. Lind, expressing his own personal opinion,
is Director for the Center for Cultural Conservatism for the
Free Congress Foundation.
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