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Recent
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April
23, 2003
Anthony
Gancarski
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Chris
Floyd
Desolation Row: Bush's Barbarians Teach
by Example
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April 26,
2003
Occupation and Iraqi Intifada
Now the Real
War Starts
By WILLIAM S. LIND
War, by its nature, is full of surprises. Like
most observers, I did not expect the Iraqis in the south to fight
us, and they did. Also like most observers, I expected the Republican
Guard around Baghdad to fight us, and they did not. The question
of why they did not fight is an interesting one, although it
will probably be years before we know the true answer. (As always,
the official answer will be air power; as always, that answer
will prove false). My guess, and it cannot be more than that,
is that the senior Iraqi leadership fled Baghdad and the troops
found out they had done so. You can't say, "Fight fiercely,
fellows," while you bolt out the back door and expect any
army to fight.
The result, thankfully, is that the Second
Generation war with the state of Iraq's armed forces is over
and we won. Saddam and his government are gone, U.S. armed forces
occupy Iraq and the whole thing went off with relatively few
casualties, on both sides. Did we see any evidence of Third Generation
maneuver warfare on the part of the Americans? I will not know
until I can talk to people who were there, but at present I am
skeptical. Overall, I think we have seen our better-equipped,
better-trained Second Generation army beat another Second Generation
army.
The problem is, now the real war starts.
There are three basic forms it may take,
none of which lend themselves to a Second Generation response.
The first is simple chaos. The initial chaos that followed the
American victory seems to be subsiding, but that is no guarantee
that there will not be new waves of chaos to come. The essential
characteristic of chaos is that it is spontaneous. It is caused
by large numbers of people responding to circumstances: no water
or food, no jobs or money, outrage over perceived humiliations
(we have chosen a woman to rule over central Iraq, including
Baghdad, which is an enormous insult to Arab men), whatever draws
a crowd. Chaos may be manipulated, and there will be many who
benefit from it and want it to continue, but its nature is that
it is "bottom up." That makes it all the more difficult
to control.
A second form the real war may take is
a War of National Liberation, a guerilla war to free Iraq from
foreign occupation. The essential characteristic of this kind
of war is that it is for the nation. The term -- Nationale Befreiungskrieg,
in the original German -- comes from Germany's, especially Prussia's,
effort to free itself from Napoleon's yoke. Here, there is likely
to be some sort of underground national leadership, and the basis
for the war would be Iraqi nationalism. It is possible, though
not likely, that rather than fleeing, Saddam and other senior
Iraqi leaders have gone underground to organize this kind of
war, using the vast remaining structure of the Ba'ath party as
a base and the Republican Guard troops who went home as the guerillas.
The third and, in my view, most likely
form the real war may take is Fourth Generation warfare. Washington
thinks it has destroyed the Iraqi regime, but it may find it
has also destroyed the Iraqi state and cannot create it again.
(The best chance of doing so is probably to use the remaining
Ba'ath party structure, if it can be co-opted, but the Bush administration
will probably reject this on grounds of "moral principle.")
In place of the state of Iraq, we will
find ourselves facing a vast array of competing loyalties, based
on religion (Sunni or Shiite), ethnicity, tribe, clan, source
of income or source of local security (gangs and warlords), and
simple appeals to fight the Crusaders from non-state actors such
as al Quaeda, Hamas, Hezbollah, and countless imitators. As in
Afghanistan, the puppet government we establish in Baghdad will
have no authority outside Baghdad, maybe not much in Baghdad,
and will survive only because it is propped up by American troops.
Iraq will become for us what the West Bank is for Israel, an
ulcer that drains us physically, mentally and morally. Further,
if an intifada against America arises in Iraq, it may well spread
elsewhere in the Arab and Moslem world, aimed at any local government
that supports the United States.
These alternatives are not pure; we may
and probably will face a mixture of all three. This, the real
war, is likely to begin slowly, allowing Washington to believe
it has won, perhaps for long enough to start more wars, with
Syria the probable next target. But once it does start, our Second
Generation armed forces will prove to have little ability to
stop it. We will find ourselves recalling the immortal words
of Marshal McMahon to Napoleon III at Sedan, where the Emperor
and his army were trapped by the Prussians: "Nous somme
dans une pot de chambre, et nous y serrons emmerdes."
William S. Lind
is Director of the Center for Cultural Conservatism at the Free
Congress Foundation.
Today's
Features
Anthony
Gancarski
When Young Mothers Die in Combat
Chris
Floyd
Desolation Row: Bush's Barbarians Teach
by Example
Marjorie
Cohn
Tax the War Profiteers
William
Lind
The Fourth Generation of Modern War
Dave Marsh
Nina Simone: Freedom Singer
Binoy
Kampmark
Malayasia's America: the War on Iraq
David Vest
Who's Looting Whom?
Standard
Shaefer
Super Imperialism: an Interview with Michael Hudson
Andrew
Rodman
Lawn Poem
Steve
Perry
Bush's War Web Log 4/23
Website
of the Day
Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East
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