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CounterPunch
February
25, 2003
The Weekend the World
Said No to War
Notes on the
Numbers
by GARY LEUPP
I don't
know which was more inspiring---attending the February 15 demo
in New York, which with its sister event in Los Angeles, and
the February 16 rally in San Francisco, has altered the political
environment in this country---or reading the reports from around
the world about the unprecedented day of global resistance to
the planned U.S. war on Iraq. Just a few points about the worldwide
campaign:
1. The international antiwar movement
has developed rapidly, thanks in large
part to the internet. An unprecedented degree of global cooperation
has become possible, and in pulling off the near-simultaneous
manifestations of popular opposition to an Iraq attack, the informally
organized planetary antiwar community has achieved a major feat.
This may, indeed, be a turning point in human history.
2. At least 10 million people demonstrated
in major cities against an Iraq attack, in open-air rallies and
marches. If we include smaller demonstrations, the figure will
be larger; in Greece, for example, between 100,000 and 150,000
are reported to have rallied in Athens, but another 60,000 rallied
in 52 other communities.
3. The demonstrations occurred on all
continents (including Antarctica, where
50-55 scientists staged a half-hour rally) indicating extremely
widespread opposition to Bush policy, and effective lines of
communication linking the U.S. and European antiwar movements,
and also international links between anti-globalization activists
in the western countries, Latin America, Asia and Africa.
4. News reports indicate that there were
at least 60 demonstrations of over
10,000 people. Almost 40 of these occurred in Europe, the greatest
center of economic power outside the U.S. and the likely focus
of contention for years to come.
5. Five of the demonstrations probably
exceeded 500,000: Barcelona,
Rome, London, Madrid, and Berlin. There is a big gap between
the Madrid and Berlin figures, so the first four are especially
conspicuous. And notice: the top four demos all occurred
in nations with governments pledged to support the Bush-Blair
Terror War on Iraq.
Five Top
Antiwar Demos, Feb. 15
Barcelona 1.3 million
Rome 1-2 million
London 750,000 [police] 1.5 million [organizers]
Madrid 660,000-800,000
Berlin 300,000-600,000
Spain, Italy and Britain are all members
of the "gang of eight" pieced together as the relationship
between the U.S. and France and Germany deteriorated, to reassure
the U.S. public that Bush has international backing. Their heads
of state all signed a letter circulated last month indicating
their intention to cooperate in a future U.S.-led attack on Iraq.
(Other gang members include Portugal, Denmark, and the former
Soviet-camp members Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary.) The
demonstrations are a stern rebuke to Blair, Berlusconi and Aznar.
5. Within the "gang of eight"
governments, that of Spain meets with particularly widespread
opposition in supporting the U.S. war plans. Of the four largest
demonstrations, two occurred in Spain, in widely separate regions;
there were also several other demonstrations of over 100,000
in the country. It appears likely that between 2.5 and 3 million
Spaniards (out of 40 million total) took a stand against war
on Saturday.
6. There appears to be strong support
in the vilified European nations of France, Germany and Belgium
for the antiwar stands currently assumed by their regimes. The
massive demonstration in Berlin was complemented by large gatherings
in Stuttgart (50,000) and Gottburg (30,000). Paris heads the
list of venues of the thirteen demonstrations I've found so far
estimated to involve 100,000 to half a million.
7. There were huge demonstrations in
Australia around Feb. 15, including two in this next category
of rallies between 100,000 and half a million. Australia's another
key ally in the U.S. war effort.
Demos
of 100,000 to 500,000
Paris 400,000
Sydney 250,000 [Feb. 16]
Damascus 200,000
Ovidio (Sp.) 200,000
San Francisco 150,000 [police]; 250,000 [organizers] [Feb. 16]
Las Palmas (Sp.) 100,000
Cadiz (Sp.) 100,000
Melbourne 100,000-200,000 [Feb. 14]
New York 100,000 [police] 375-500,000 [org]
Los Angeles 100,000
Montreal 100,000
Dublin 100,000
Athens 100,000 [police]-150,000 [organizers]
8. The demonstrations in the U.S. building
upon earlier events in April and October 2002, and last January,
were the largest yet, and rival anything seen during the Vietnam
War protests. The antiwar movement here seems to be just keeping
pace with the Australian and Canadian movements.
9. Greece may be a swing vote between
"old" antiwar Europe and the new alliance the U.S.
seeks to forge. The large numbers of Greek protesters may encourage
Athens to reject military cooperation in the upcoming war.
10. There was a big demonstration in
Lisbon, capital of another "gang of eight" nation,
as well as one in Porto. Perhaps Portugal, with a population
a quarter that of Spain, has an antiwar movement as pervasive
as that in its Iberian neighbor. Meanwhile there were demonstrations
of 20,000-30,000 in Copenhagen and Budapest, 10,000 in Warsaw,
and hundreds in Prague. One hopes the eight may begin to waver.
Demos of
50,000-100,000
Lisbon 80,000
Amsterdam 70,000
Seattle 60-75,000
Oslo 60,000
Seville 60,000
Brussels 50,000
Montevideo 50,000
Buenos Aires 50,000
Stuttgart 50,000
11. Seattle's the only U.S. city listed
in the third category. It has emerged as a center of radical/progressive
organizing since the anti-globalization protests of 1999.
12. There was significant participation
in antiwar organizing in Latin American cities, especially Montevideo
(Uruguay) and Buenos Aires (Argentina), but also in Mexico City
and Sao Paolo (Brazil). There were demonstrations in Havana,
San Juan (Puerto Rico) and Santo Domingo.
13. In Asia (leaving aside southwest
Asia), the largest demonstrations I've heard of took place in
Japan. I am not sure of the size of the one in Seoul, South Korea.
14. The only demonstrations of around
10,000 to take place in Southeast Asia were in (predominantly
Muslim) Pattani, in Thailand, and in Manila. Twice that number
rallied in Pattani Febraury 16. There were smaller demonstrations
in Djakarta (following one of between 10,000 and 50,000 a week
earlier), Kuala Lumpur (3,000 despite a police ban), and Bangkok.
Largely, one supposes, because of government repression, the
antiwar movement remains low-key in the region.
15. In South Asia, 10,000 rallied in
Calcutta, India, and smaller numbers in Dhaka, Bangladesh and
Karachi, Pakistan. In this region, too, the movement faces organizational
difficulties.
16. In Africa, protest against the war
has been largely confined to the large cities of South Africa.
There were demonstrations of 4-5,000 in Durban, Capetown and
Johannesburg.
17. The Arab "street" remains
largely silent. The 200,000-strong rally in Damascus, Syria,
was among the top ten demonstrations February 15, but (like the
massive pro-Saddam rally in Baghdad the same day) this was a
government-sponsored event. In Beirut, perhaps 10,000 protested;
in Amman, 3,000. Riot police attacked a rally of 3,000 in Sfax,
in Tunisia. Palestinians demonstrated in Ramallah and Jews and
Palestinians marched together two or three thousand strong in
Tel Aviv. A few hundred protested in Bahrain, as if to test the
monarch's commitment to democratic reform. But in Cairo, greatest
city in the contemporary Arab world, only a few hundred rallied,
some suffering arrest and torture for violating security regulations.
(This is the third time this has happened since the Cairo Conference
helped launch the Egyptian antiwar campaign in December.) The
fear of repression restrains a potentially mighty anti-imperialist
movement in the Arab world.
18. Although over 90% of the Turkish
population opposes war, the Turkish street also remains relatively
quiescent, even as the U.S. prepares to force tens of thousands
of troops upon the country preparatory to an attack on Iraq.
Students and over 1000 lawyers rallied against a U.S. Iraq attack
in Istanbul last October, and several thousand attended a demonstration
in Ankara in January. Sixty medical workers and supporters of
the leftist Freedom and Solidarity Party rallied against war
in downtown Ankara February 22. With over 90% of the Turkish
public, and most parliamentarians against war, one would expect
the outbreak of hostilities to bring many more out into the streets,
despite government repression.
Demos of
20,000-50,000
Bern (Switz) 40,000
Stockholm 35,000
Glasgow 30,000-50,000
Gottburg 30,000
Girona 30,000
Toronto 25,000-80,000
Tokyo 25,000
Copenhagen 25,000
Vancouver 20,000
Budapest 20,000
Trondheim (Norw) 20,000
Brisbane 20,000
Vienna 15-30,000
Montpelier 15-20,000
10,000-20,000
Canberra 16,000
Helsinki 15,000
Newcastle (Aus) 15,000
Bergen (Norw)15,000
Munich 14,000-20,000 [Feb. 8]
Mexico City 13,500
Sao Paolo 10-20,000
Toulouse 10,000
Calcutta 10,000
Porto (Port.) 10,000
Copenhagen 10,000
Thessaloniki 10,000
Zagreb (Cro) 10,000
Philadelphia 10,000
Leipzig 10,000 [Feb. 10]
Hobart 10,000+
Warsaw 10,000
Perth 10,000
Manila 10,000 [Feb. 14]
Pattani, Thailand 10,000
Auckland 8-10,000
Seoul 2,000-10,000
Beirut 10,000
Conclusion:
There's a big, global, still largely
Eurocentric antiwar movement emerging. Short-term, it's most
likely impact will be to somewhat weaken the resolve of the European
regimes that have signed on to the Iraq War, and thus to pose
difficulties for the Bush administration's timetable for aggression.
I don't think the movement will stop the attack, but it will
be positioned to mobilize greater opposition once that occurs.
The movement in the U.S. will, I think, be increasingly seen
by Americans as part of a global effort, rooted in reason and
a concern for genuine justice and peace; while the Bush administration
will increasingly be seen as dishonest, paranoid, greedy, and
demented in the pursuit of its Terror War policy. Weakened at
home, the warmongering regime will command less respect abroad,
as will its underlings who strive to silence the Arab masses
who will be most enraged by the attack on a brother Arab and
Muslim state. The world is bound to experience big changes. The
demonstrations of the weekend indicate the masses will not be
the passive pawns in that change, but potentially regime-changers
in their own right.
Gary Leupp
is an an associate professor, Department of History, Tufts University
and coordinator, Asian Studies Program.
He can be reached at: gleupp@tufts.edu
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