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Paul Craig Roberts on the "Free Trade" Lies that are Destroying America
It’s the shortest, sharpest outline of economics ever written, available ONLY to CounterPunch newsletter subscribers. In this second of three parts Paul Craig Roberts explodes the “free trade” myths. ALSO Bruce Page flays a servile new bio of Rupert Murdoch. He’s touted as the mightiest press baron on the planet, but his reputation is bogus, his entire career built on servicing the powerful. Also available here in print form is Vicente Navarro’s dissection of Dr Sanjay Gupta’s credentials to be Surgeon General. Get your Legacy Edition today by subscribing online or calling 1-800-840-3683 Contributions to CounterPunch are tax-deductible. Click here to make a donation. If you find our site useful please: Subscribe Now! CounterPunch books and gear make great presents.
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Today's Stories February 11, 2009 Michael Hudson Neve Gordon Peter Morici Andy Worthington Marjorie Cohn Belén Fernández
February 10, 2009 Kathy Kelly Nikolas Kozloff Uri Avnery Michael J. Berg Russell Mokhiber Joe Bageant Gareth Porter Dave Lindorff Rannie Amiri Harvey Wasserman Niranjan Ramakrishnan Website of the Day February 9, 2009 Vicente Navarro Paul Craig Roberts Julio Sanchez / National Lawyers Guild Jonathan Cook Alana Smith Binoy Kampmark Sam Bahour Nicole Colson Ron Jacobs Website of the Day February 6-8, 2009 Alexander Cockburn Ishmael Reed James Abourezk William Blum Patrick Cockburn Henry A. Giroux Manuel Garcia, Jr. Mouin Rabbani David Yearsley Saul Landau Jules Rabin Raymond J. Lawrence Janette Habel Dave Lindorff Missy Beattie Dale Gieringer John Ross Richard Rhames Bob Wing Robert Bryce David Macaray James L. Secor Jason Flom / Norm Kent Kim Nicolini Lorenzo Wolff Poets' Basement Website of the Weekend February 5, 2009 Michael Mandel Saul Landau / Ralph Nader Robert Bryce Russell Mokhiber Sameh Habeeb / Dave Lindorff Carmelo Ruiz-Marrero George Ochenski Website of the Day February 4, 2009 Arno J. Mayer Paul Craig Roberts Patrick Cockburn Jonathan Cook Fred Gardner Stan Cox Margaret Kimberley Lawrence Velvel Dave Lindorff Doug Giebel Serge Quadruppani Website of the Day February 3, 2009 David Price Bill Moyers Kirkpatrick Sale Conn Hallinan Peter Morici George Ciccariello-Maher Muhammad Idrees Ahmad Allan Nairn Norman Solomon David Macaray Website of the Day February 2, 2009 Uri Avnery Ralph Nader Gareth Porter Paul Craig Roberts Harvey Wasserman Rannie Amiri Cal Winslow Steve Early Alan Farago Diane Farsetta January 30 / February 1, 2009 Alexander Cockburn Michael Hudson Ismael Hossein-Zadeh Dave Lindorff Saul Landau Andy Worthington Subcomandante Marcos Robert Jensen Ron Jacobs Gareth Porter Allan Nairn Laura Carlsen Rev. William E. Alberts Christopher Brauchli Jules Rabin Col. Dan Smith Missy Beattie Tom Barry J. Michael Cole Manuel Garcia, Jr. Dan Bacher David Rosen Don Monkerud Binoy Kampmark Lorenzo Wolff David Yearsley Poets' Basement January 29, 2009 Peter Linebaugh Paul Craig Roberts Riz Khan M. Reza Pirbhai Wajahat Ali Gregory Vickrey Dina Jadallah-Taschler Alison Weir Alan Farago Walter Brasch Website of the Day
January 28, 2009 Norman Finkelstein Noam Chomsky Patrick Cockburn Rob Larson George Wuerthner Allan Nairn M. Junaid Stefan Simanowitz Charles R. Larson Website of the Day January 27, 2009 Winslow T. Wheeler Yigal Bronner / Joshua Frank Jordan Flaherty Ralph Nader Rev. José M. Tirado Benjamin Dangl Russell Mokhiber Martha Rosenberg C. G. Estabrook Website of the Day January 26, 2009 Paul Craig Roberts Deepak Tripathi Vijay Prashad Peter Lee Allan Nairn Uri Avnery John Sayen Dave Lindorff Lawrence R. Velvel David Macaray Roger Burbach Norman Solomon Website of the Day January 23 / 25, 2009 Alexander Cockburn P. Sainath Patrick Cockburn Saul Landau Sasan Fayazmanesh Alan Farago Christopher Brauchli Andy Worthington Ron Jacobs Lawrence Velvel Henry A. Giroux David Yearsley Raymond F. Gustavson Dave Lindorff Roberto Rodriguez Dina Jadallah-Taschler Fidel Castro J. Michael Cole Bob Fitrakis / Ramzy Baroud Mohammad Ali Shabani Richard Rhames Stephen Martin Lorenzo Wolff Kim Nicolini Poets' Basement Website of the Weekend January 22, 2009 Paul Craig Roberts Kathy Kelly Allan Nairn Lawrence Velvel Andy Worthington Peter Morici Joseph G. Davis Adriana Kojeve Benjamin Dangl Website of the Day January 21, 2009 Gabriel Kolko Harry Browne Michael Colby Lawrence R. Velvel Audrey Stewart Wajahat Ali Binoy Kampmark David Kεr Thomson John Ross Allan Nairn Sheldon Richman Website of the Day January 20, 2009 Chuck Spinney Kathy Kelly Raymond Deane Ralph Nader Audrey Stewart Jonathan Cook Harvey Wasserman Christopher Ketcham Robert Jensen Dave Lindorff David Macaray |
February 11, 2009 The Recovery Plan From HellWhat Wall Street WantsBy MICHAEL HUDSON Tuesday’s announcement of the Obama-Geithner recovery plan is basically an extension of the Bush-Paulson plan – yet more giveaways to financial insiders, with a view to concentrating the U.S. banking system into a cartel of just a few large banks. This is not altogether bad news for the still relatively healthy part of the banking system (healthy in the sense of still avoiding negative equity). Smaller, less troubled banks will be bought out by the large “troubled” ones, to the personal financial benefit of their stockholders. This cannot solve today’s financial problem: the fact that the debt overhead far exceeds the economy’s ability to pay. In fact, it will spread the distortions that the large banks have introduced, until the entire system presumably looks like Citibank, Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo. But this clearly is only Stage One of a two-stage plan that has not yet been announced, although the Wall Street Journal’s op-ed page has provided enough hints trickling out for the past three months to tip the hand of Wall Street’s “dream recovery plan.” It is not exactly what most people are hoping for. In fact, it threatens to be a nightmare scenario for the economy at large. Watch for the magic phrase: “equity kicker,” first heard in the S&L mortgage crisis of the 1980s. The first question to ask about the Recovery Program is, “recovery for whom?” The answer is, for the people who design the Recovery For the financial elites, the problem is that it is not possible to inflate another bubble from today’s debt levels, widespread negative equity, and still-high level of real estate, stock and bond prices. No amount of new credit or capital for the banking system will induce banks to provide credit to real estate that already is over-mortgaged, or to individuals and corporations already over-indebted. All professional observers have forecast property prices to keep on plunging for at least the next year, which is as far as the eye can see in unstable conditions such as we are experiencing today. While the Obama administration’s financial planners wring their hands in public and say “We feel your pain” to debtors at large, they also recognize that the past ten years have been a golden age for the banking system and Wall Street. The wealthiest 1 per cent of the population has raised its share of the returns to wealth – dividends, interest, rent and capital gains – from 37 per cent of the total ten years ago to 57 per cent five years ago, and an estimated 70 per cent today. Over two-thirds of the returns to wealth now go to the wealthiest 1 per cent of the population. This is the highest on record. We are approaching Russian kleptocratic levels. Yet the financial Hard Right of the political spectrum – the lobbyists now in control of the Treasury, the Federal Reserve and the Justice Departments for starters – repeats the new Big Lie: that it is the poor who have brought the system down, “exploiting” the rich by trying to ape their betters and live beyond their means. Subprime families have taken out subprime loans, the lying poor have signed documents to obtain “liars’ loans,” as Alt-A, no-documentation loans are called in the financial junk-paper trade. I learned the reality a few years ago in London, talking to a commercial bank strategist there. “We’ve had an intellectual breakthrough,” he said. “It’s changed our credit philosophy.” “What is it?” I asked, imagining that he was about to come out with yet a new junk mathematics formula? “The poor are honest,” he said, accompanying his words with his jaw dropping open as if to say, “Who could have guessed?” The meaning was clear enough. The poor pay their debts as a matter of honor, even at great personal expense. Unlike Donald Trump, the poor are less likely to walk away from their homes when market prices sink below the mortgage level. In today’s neoliberal Chicago School language, the poor behave “uneconomically.” That is, they make choices that do not make economic sense, but rather reflect a group morality. This sociological gullibility is what made them rich pickings for predatory lenders such as Countrywide, Wachovia and Citibank. As I said above, it was a golden age. The financial and real estate bubble is the world that America’s financial power elite would love to recover. The problem for them is how to start a new bubble and make yet another fortune. The alternative would be to keep what they have taken and run – not so bad, but a scenario that perhaps they can improve on. Discussions about emergency bailouts have focused on putting in place enough new lending capacity by the banking system to start inflating prices on credit once again. But a new bubble can’t be started from today’s asset-price levels. This week’s $2 trillion or so in new bailout money for the banks (“capital,” and specifically finance capital, not to be confused with industrial capital) will only be lent out once prices fall by another 30 to 50 percent. So this can represent only Stage 1. The question for Stage 2 is, how can the $10 to $20 trillion capital-gain run-up of the Greenspan years been repeated in an economy that is “all loaned up”? One thing Wall Street knows is that to make money, you not only need asset prices to rise, they have to go down again – and up again, and down again. Without going down, after all, how can they rise up? The more frenetic the price fibulation, the easier it is for computerized buy-and-sell programs to make money on options and derivatives. What is being planned today looks like a similar up-and-down movement in real estate. The first trick is to preserve the wealth of the creditor class – Wall Street, the banks and the other financial vehicles that enrich the wealthiest 1 per cent and indeed, the richest 10 per cent of the population. Stage One involves buying out their bad loans at a price that saves them from taking a loss. This is done by shifting the loss onto the “taxpayers” – labor, onto whose shoulders the tax burden has been shifted steadily, step by step since 1980, with the Greenspan Commission imposing an onerous Social Security tax on the middle class and using the proceeds to slash taxes on the higher brackets. Next comes an “aggregator” bank (sounds like “alligator,” from the swamps of toxic waste) to buy the bad debts and put them in a public agency. The government calls this the “bad” bank. But it does good for Wall Street – by buying loans that have gone bad – or perhaps nearer the truth, loans that never were good in the first place. The harder part is to revive opportunities for creditors to make a new killing. (And it’s the economy that’s being killed.) Here’s how I imagine the plan might work. Suppose a recent buyer has purchased a home for $500,000, with a $500,000 adjustable-rate mortgage scheduled to reset at 8 per cent. Suppose too that the current market price has fallen to $250,000 – a loss of 50 per cent by the end of 2009. After all, there needs to be enough time for prices to decline. Otherwise, there would be no economy to “rescue.” Mr. Geithner and Summers need to “feel your pain” to come out with the package that I’m describing. The government will swap “cash for trash,” printing new Treasury bonds (interest to be paid by “the taxpayer) in exchange for the $500,000 mortgage that is going bad, heading toward only a $250,000 market price. The “Bad” bank that the Obama plan decided was not quite ready to be created this week will take the form of a public/private partnership (PPP), of the sort that Tony Blair made so notorious in Britain. It will be financed with private funds – in fact, with the funds now being given to re-capitalize America’s banks (headed by the Wall St. banks that have done so poorly). Banks will use the money they receive from the Treasury for selling their junk mortgages at par – along with other bailout funding – to buy shares in a new $5 trillion institution. Something like Fanny Mae or Freddie Mac will be created and its bonds guaranteed (that’s the “public” part – “socializing” the risk). The PPP institution will start with, say, $3 trillion in funds, and will have the power to buy and renegotiate the mortgages that have passed into the hands of the government and other holders. This “Middle Class Homeowner Recovery Trust” will use its private funding for the “socially responsible” purpose of “saving the taxpayer” and homeowners by renegotiating the mortgage down from its original $500,000 to the new $250,000 price. Here’s the patter talk you can expect, with the usual Orwellian euphemisms. The “rescue the homeowners” PPP, a veritable Savior Bank, will go to a family strapped by its home mortgage debt and feeling more and more desperate as the price of its major asset plummets deep into Negative Equity territory. An offer will be made: “We’ve got a deal to save you. We’ll renegotiate your mortgage down to $250,000, the current market price, and we’ll also lower your interest rate to just 5.50 per cent. This will cut your monthly debt charges by nearly two thirds. You will escape from negative equity, and you can afford to stay in your home.” The family probably will say, “Great.” But they will have to make a concession. That’s where the new public/private partnership makes its killing. Its Savior Bank, funded with private money that is to take the “risk” (and also the rewards) will say to the family that agrees to renegotiate its mortgage: “Now that the government has taken a loss while we’ve let you stay in your home, we need to recover the money that’s been lost. So when the time comes for you to sell, or to renegotiate your mortgage, our Savior Bank will receive the capital gain up to the original amount written off. If we’ve made you whole, we want to be made whole too.” In other words, if the homeowner sells the property for $400,000, the Savior Bank will get $150,000 of the capital gain. If the property sells for $500,000, the bank will get $250,000. And if it sells for more, thanks to some new clone of Alan Greenspan acting as bubblemeister, the capital gain will be split in some way. If the split is 50/50, then if the home sells for $600,000, the owner at that time will split the $100,000 further capital gain with the Savior Bank. The Savior Bank will thus make much more through its share of capital gains than it extracts in interest! This plan will be even better for Wall Street than the Greenspan bubble was! Last time around, it was the middle class that got the gains. To be sure, it really was the bank that got the gains, because mortgage interest charges absorbed the entire rental value. But at least homeowners had a chance at the free ride, if they didn’t squander their money in refinancing their mortgages. And many did use their homes “like a piggy bank” to support their living standards. But this time around, Wall Street is not obliged to make its money by making middle class homeowners rich. Debt-strapped homeowners are willing to settle merely for a plan that leaves them in their homes! It can get for itself the capital gains that have been the driving force of U.S. “wealth creation,” Alan Greenspan bubble-style. The irony is that the only kind of policies that are politically correct these days are those that make the situation worse: yet more government money in the hope that banks will create yet more credit/debt to raise house prices and make them even more unaffordable; to inflate a new bubble; to give what really should be called the “bad banks” – the Big Four or Five where the junk mortgages, junk CDOs and junk derivatives resulting from junk mathematics are concentrated – yet more money to buy out smaller banks that have not yet been infected with reckless financial opportunism. And by the same token, lobbyists for these bad banks are screaming at the top of their voices that all solutions to the problem are politically incorrect: debt writedowns to bring the debt burden within the ability to pay. That is what the market is supposed to do – by bankruptcy in an anarchic collapse, if not by reasoned government policy. The bad banks, after demanding “free markets” all these years, have stopped the free market when it comes anywhere near them and their bonuses. For them, markets are free of regulation against predatory lending; free of taxing the wealthy so as to shift the burden onto labor; free for the financial sector to wrap itself around the “real” economy like a parasitic vine around a tree and extract the entire surplus in the form of financial engineering. This is a travesty of freedom. But worst of all is the “freedom” of today’s economic discussion from the wisdom of classical political economy and from the experience of economic history regarding how societies have coped with the debt overhead through the ages. An alternative policy to save the economy from being “rescued” by Wall Street There is an alternative to ward all this off. A debt writedown, followed by a land tax so that the “free lunch” (what John Stuart Mill called the “unearned increment” of rising land prices, a gain that landlords made “in their sleep”) would serve as the tax base rather than labor and industry being burdened with an income tax. One move would be to prevent banks from lending against the land’s value. They could lend against buildings, but not land. This would cut the maximum permissible loan to 50 to 60 per cent of the total property price – unless the government did what classical economists advocated and tax the land’s market price (its rental value) as the tax base, shifting the tax back off of labor. This would achieve the kind of free markets that Adam Smith, John Stuart Mill and Alfred Marshall described, and which the Progressive Era aimed to achieve with America’s first income tax in 1913. A land tax would prevent housing prices from rising again. This would save homeowners from taking on so much debt in order to obtain housing. And it would save the economy from seeing “wealth creation” take the form of the “unearned increment” being capitalized into higher bank loans with their associated carrying charges (interest and amortization). The key to real estate bubbles is to inflate site valuations. Michael Hudson is a former Wall Street economist. A Distinguished Research Professor at University of Missouri, Kansas City (UMKC), he is the author of many books, including Super Imperialism: The Economic Strategy of American Empire (new ed., Pluto Press, 2002) He can be reached via his website, mh@michael-hudson.com |
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