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CounterPunch
November
20, 2002
Turkey Holds
the Future of Cyprus Hostage
by LINDA HEARD
Recip Tayipp Erdogan, the leader of Turkey's recently
elected Justice and Development Party, holds the future of Cyprus
in his hands. Erdogan had initially welcomed the recently unveiled
United Nations plan for reunification of the island, but on Saturday
he threw a spoke in the wheel by insisting that Cyprus should
not be admitted into Europe before Turkey.
"I call on all world leaders for
Cyprus and Turkey to be admitted to the European Union simultaneously,"
he said. This could, of course, be posturing in an effort to
strengthen the position of Northern Cyprus at the bargaining
table. He appeared to soften his stance once more on Monday by
removing the word 'simultaneously' from his rhetoric.
Alternatively, the de facto Turkish Prime
Minister, banned from the actual role under Turkish law due to
his Islamist stance--a law, which his party is manoeuvring to
change--could be holding Cyprus hostage in a last ditch attempt
to gain Turkey's imminent admission into Europe.
Cyprus, that green and pleasant, but
long troubled, eastern Mediterranean island represents a microcosm
of all the political divisions, rivalries and hatreds ongoing
in the world today. An intriguing melting pot of different ethnicities
and religions, Cyprus has become used to turmoil and instability.
Since the island was peremptorily sliced
on a roughly 37/63 per cent basis after a Turkish invasion in
1974 sparked by a Greek-Cypriot coup, the disparities between
the economies of the two sides have grown parallel with mutual
suspicion and enmity. But now, miraculously, Cyprus may have
a chance at unity with ensuing prosperity for all its peoples.
Prompted by the Greek sector's inevitable
entry into the EU, scheduled for 2004, the Kofi Annan has at
last put forward a viable plan for unification with November
18 the date set for acceptance of the plan by both sides as a
basis for future discussion.
The future of the isle now rests with
its leaders--Glafkos Clerides and Rauf Denktash as well as the
goodwill of Greece and Turkey. With enough political will, they
would sign up to the plan's essentials on December 12 this year
just prior to the EU summit to be held in Copenhagen. Final agreement
would take place on February 28, 2003 with referendums to be
held in both sectors on March 1.
While unification would, no doubt, bring
untold benefits for all Cypriots, painful decisions will have
to be made; decisions, which will affect generations to come.
The Turkish Cypriots have most to gain
in a material sense from the tearing down of the green line.
They are currently isolated with all scheduled flights to the
northern sector having to be routed via Ankara or Istanbul. The
economy of Northern Cyprus is propped-up by Turkey, while unemployment
is high and foreign investment minimal.
Their greatest fear is loss of identity
and erosion of autonomy. Another bitter pill for the Turkish
Cypriots would be a reduction in the 37 per cent of territory
they currently hold down to approximately 28.5 per cent. Implementation
of the plan would lead to the further displacement of an estimated
50,000 people--most of them Turkish Cypriots. Further, Turks
who have lived on the island for less than seven years would
be required to return home.
Impoverished Turkey has a vested interest
in going along with the UN plan. Not only would Northern Cyprus
stop being an economic liability on the mainland, the cooperation
of the Turkish government would bode well for Turkey's own bid
for EU membership, recently relegated to the end of the queue.
Turkey also has to overcome such attitudes
as those recently expressed by the former French President Valery
Giscard d'Estaing who said that Turkey is not a European country
and that it would be "the end of the European Union"
if Ankara were allowed to join.
If a unified Cyprus were to become part
of the European Union, Giscard d'Estaing's reasoning would resonate
as essentially flawed, since Cyprus is geographically further
away from Europe than the Turkish mainland and would include
a significant ethnic Turkish population. Cyprus could, therefore,
set a precedent facilitating Turkey's entry.
Costas Simitis, the Greek Prime Minister
is upbeat, saying, after the plan was made public: "This
is a very important day for Cyprus and the Cypriot people..."
Greek-Cypriot President Glafkos Clerides
has greeted the plan with an amount of measured optimism. "It
is evident that it contains provisions which satisfy our stipulations
and also provisions that are not to our liking. However, we shall
judge the plan as a whole," he commented.
The plan itself is based on the Swiss
model, whereby Cyprus would have a federal government made up
of representatives from both sides. It proposes a bicameral legislature
and for the first three years of the new unified Cyprus, the
Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders would share a joint presidency.
Thereafter, the presidency would rotate with neither a Greek
Cypriot nor a Turkish Cypriot being allowed more than two subsequent
terms of office.
One of the main sticking points for Greek
Cypriots is the proposed composition of the Presidential Council,
which would be made up of four Greek Cypriots and two Turkish
Cypriots. At least one of the Turkish Cypriots would be required
to vote 'yea' before any resolution could be passed, and, thus,
the Turkish side would effectively enjoy a power of veto.
Apart from the federal government, there
would be two cantons--designated 'Component States' in the plan--their
residents primarily drawn from the two ethnicities. The two Component
States, whose borders have yet to be conclusively defined, would
hold equal status and be capable of 'organising themselves freely
under their own constitutions'.
Although the plan calls for a single
Cyprus citizenship, Cypriots would also enjoy internal 'Component
State' citizenship status, which would limit their chosen place
of residence. In other words, no single ethnicity will be allowed
to demographically swamp another. This is so that each side can
maintain and nurture its own culture, traditions and language.
These restrictions relating to residence
for both Greek and Turkish Cypriots is outside the scope of current
EU rules which require the free movement of goods, services,
people and capital. However, the plan asks the EU for a special
exclusion protocol for Cyprus for a period of 20 years.
A further provision, which is outside
EU norms, involves the continuance of the Treaty of Guarantee
whereby Greece, Turkey and Britain jointly protect the island's
security. This is unprecedented in Europe and flies against the
status of Cyprus as a sovereign entity. Despite proposed demilitarisation,
British bases would remain on the island.
Perhaps the most complex practical problems,
which would follow any unification, would be the re-distribution
of property and consideration of related compensation claims.
Some 200,000 Greek Cypriots were forced to leave their homes
and businesses after the Turkish invasion leaving many of these
properties to be occupied by Turkish Cypriots or mainland Turks.
Yet others, have been bought and sold many times and are now
in the hands of foreign ownership. Turkish Cypriots too will
have similar claims to pursue, although their numbers will be
substantially lower.
In order to deal with the plan's intricate
rules and regulations surrounding property once owned by dispossessed
persons, a Cyprus Property Board would be set-up and would remain
in operation for 10 years.
April next year will see ten candidate
countries, including The Republic of Cyprus, poised to sign accession
treaties related to their respective memberships of the EU. This
timetable has put pressure on all the parties involved in mapping
out the future of the island.
In the event that talks on unification
break down, only the Greek-Cypriot portion of Cyprus will join
Europe, while Turkey has threatened to permanently annex the
north. This would probably mean that Turkey's hopes of joining
the EU would completely fade and it, too, would be isolated politically,
economically and culturally.
Whether Mr. Giscard d'Estaing likes it
or not, Turkey enjoys a strategic location straddling both Europe
and Asia and is an important member of NATO. Turkey and The Turkish
Republic of Northern Cyprus should be welcomed into the fold
for their sakes as well as for the benefit of Europe. Leaving
the Turks and the Turkish Cypriots to stew in resentment as poor
neighbours, peeking over the fence at Greeks growing ever prosperous
is, surely, a recipe for yet more instability and potential conflict.
Instead, let the growing rapprochement
between Greeks and Turks, as well as Cypriots of both ethnicities,
be a shining example to others involved in conflicts around the
world that hope can win through against all odds.
Linda Heard
is a writer, editor and Arabist, who has lived and worked for
most of her life in the Middle East.
She can be reached at: freenewsreport@yahoo.com
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