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CounterPunch
October
18, 2002
Turkey Resigned to No-Win Situation
by LINDA HEARD
In a strange twist of fate Turkey's long-term
foe Greece has emerged as the most committed European supporter
of Turkey's bid to join the European Union, EU. Turkish Prime
Minister Bulent Ecevit may be forgiven for thinking: with enemies
like this, who needs friends?
A report recently issued by the European
Commission has indicated that Turkey's accession to the EU looks
unlikely in the foreseeable future, angering the Turkish leadership,
which feels that it has done its utmost to comply with entry
requirements.
Greek Foreign Minister George Papandreou
was the first to telephone his Turkish counterpart after the
disappointing report was made public and assured him that Greece
would do its best to rally the 15 EU member countries behind
Turkish aspirations during the upcoming EU Summit in December.
With the Greek Prime Minister taking
on the mantle of the revolving EU Presidency from January 1,
Greece will be well placed to attempt to draw its prodigal son
into the fold.
Such effusive Greek support for its ancient
nemesis isn't as surprising as it might have been just a decade
ago. Relations between the two Mediterranean adversaries have
been slowly warming over the last few years after a positive
U-turn in relations sparked by Greece's spontaneous humanitarian
aid and assistance to Turkey after the 1999 earthquake.
It should be said, though, that Greece
is hardly acting altruistically in backing Turkey's entry bid.
It is more a case of "if you can't beat 'em join 'em"
from the point of view of Athens. A disgruntled Turkish government
in the pocket of the U.S. holds little appeal for the Greek leadership,
which still eyes Turkey with suspicion.
The U.S. has been advocating Turkey's
membership of the Union but with the cooling of relations between
America and Europe over Nato and Iraq, America's clout with its
allies across the pond isn't as strong as it was. Several European
countries are still angered by U.S. President George W. Bush's
insistence upon Americans being excluded from the jurisdiction
of the new International Criminal Court.
America has been waving the carrot of
EU membership to Turkey as one of the incentives to get Ankara
on its side in any war with Iraq. Turkey's strategic location
bordering Iraq means that it could be an important player and
the US is anxious to keep it sweet.
Turkey has further been helpful to the
Bush administration in Afghanistan by taking over peacekeeping
duties. It is also seen as a staunch predominantly Muslim ally
of the US in its War on Terror, its role countering accusations
from some quarters that the Bush administration is waging war
on Islam.
But Turkey's woes don't end with Europe's
rejection. Since Ecevit's public falling out with Ahmet Necdet
Sezer, the Turkish president, early last year, when the Turkish
Lira experienced an unprecedented dive, the country's fragile
economy--propped up by the IMF--is still struggling to recover.
At that time Turkish banks collapsed,
businesses folded and over one million Turks lost their jobs.
Economic instability is one of the reasons why Turkey is hovering
at the bottom of the list of EU applicants but not the one cited
by the report focusing more on Turkey's poor human rights record.
Ankara has, in fact, been working hard
to put right its poor image with regards to human rights and
against much internal opposition has managed to eradicate the
death penalty, one of the main sticking points for the powers
that be in Brussels.
With elections set for next month, the
Turkish leadership is concerned that the electorate of its secular
state will become embittered by the European snub and turn in
even greater numbers to the Islamist Justice and Development
Party, or HADEP, the Kurdish party, both of which are an anathema
to the current Kemalist government.
If this was not enough to interrupt the
slumber of the ailing Ecevit, the spectre of his country being
one of the main players in a war with its Iraqi neighbour is
more than a good reason.
Like a mesmerised fly being drawn into
a red, white and blue spider's web, the Turkish government has
been given little choice but to give its support to the Bush
administration and its plans for the region.
Turkey maintains that it wants no part
of such military adventurism, and has urged the U.S. to avoid
aggression, but at the same time it needs the goodwill of U.S.
and American-led financial institutions to keep its economy afloat.
Ecevit said last Friday: "If a military
operation is realised we will be involved in it whether or not
we want to be. This will bring many problems to Turkey."
Apart from fearing that war with Iraq
would mean an untenable drop in tourism and foreign investment,
Turkey's main concern is that the Kurds in the north of Iraq
will grab the opportunity to declare their own state adjoining
the Iraqi/Turkish border. Such a state, Turkey maintains, would
inflame its own Kurdish separatist movement, which it has been
fighting since 1984, and pose a geopolitical threat to its security.
Far from being figments of an overheated
imagination, the Turkish fears could well be founded. Leaders
of two opposition Iraqi Kurdish groups, the PUK and the KDP,
have put aside their enmity, and drawn up a draft constitution
for a Kurdish state in the event that the U.S. invades Iraq and
destroys the current regime.
Turkish dailies reported last week that
Kurdish and Arabic were nominated as the proposed state's official
languages in the draft, which also pinpointed the oil-wealthy
city of Kirkuk--not currently under Kurdish control--as the new
capital.
Representatives of the Kurdish groups
have been quick to assert that the draft resolution is not a
precursor to a state but Turkey remains rightly sceptical.
It has even gone as far to warn that
in the event that a Kurdish state were to be announced, Turkey
would be forced to defend the interests of northern Iraq's Turkoman
minority and to secure its borders. It refuses to rule out using
military force to do so.
The U.S. is quick to allay Turkish concerns
by stressing that Iraq would maintain its integrity once a regime
change has been effected, but experts believe that the country
could well split up into three with Shias in the south, Sunnis
in the centre and Kurds in the north. Most agree that this would
be a recipe for turmoil and, perhaps, civil war.
In spite of its declarations of wishing
to see Iraq run as a democracy, the U.S. may have other plans
for a post-war Iraq.
An October 11 article in the New York
Times says that leaks from Washington indicate that the U.S.
is preparing for a lengthy occupation of Iraq, with a U.S. military
commander in charge. Such a commander would mirror the role adopted
by General Douglas MacArthur in Japan after that country's surrender
in 1945.
This imperialist arrangement would mean
that America would have control over the Iraqi oilfields--the
second richest in the world--and would set about prosecuting
followers of Saddam for alleged war crimes.
Iraqi opposition groups are naturally
bristling over this leaked report, which means that they would
be pushed aside and left without political clout. In the meantime,
the heavy-hearted Iraqi people are going about their daily lives
under the ever-growing cloud of war, while Baghdad prepares to
defend itself against a possible U.S. attack.
In an attempt to avoid hostilities at
the 11th hour, Iraq has finally agreed to open its doors to unfettered
weapons inspection, including Saddam Hussein's palaces. It has
invited groups of journalists to view the facilities which the
U.S. has shown in satellite images saying that they were suspicious,
and it has even invited representatives of the U.S. to come and
look round for themselves.
However hard the Iraqi leadership tries
to address America's concerns, the U.S. merely heaps more scorn
upon its efforts.
It's clear that the Iraqi leadership
does not want war with the U.S. The same, unfortunately, cannot
be said of the Bush administration. Bush's recent words that
war is not inevitable are beginning to ring ever more hollow.
The House and the Senate have given the
American leader a bi-partisan green light to use any necessary
force and U.S. troops and military hardware are being strategically
positioned around the region.
Turkey may soon discover that there are
no winners here, with the exception of U.S. self-interest and
furtherance of its hegemony that is. Turkey has little to gain
and could soon find itself deeply mistrusted by the Arab/Moslem
world, already irritated by its close ties with Israel, and by
Europe.
Of course, there is always its newfound
buddy Greece but you know what they say about Greeks bearing
gifts.
Linda Heard
is a writer, editor and Arabist, who has lived and worked for
most of her life in the Middle East.
She can be reached at: freenewsreport@yahoo.com
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