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How Bush Pushed Up Oil Prices

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St. Clair on Tour in Sacramento, San Francisco & Oakland

Today's Stories

July 16, 2008

Jeffrey St. Clair
Star Whores: How John McCain Doomed Mt. Graham

 

July 15, 2008

Michael Hudson
Why the Bail Out of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae is Bad Economic Policy

Brian Cloughley
Iran's Missile Tests

Patrick Cockburn
Sadr's Militia May Live to Fight Another Day

John Ross
Crunchtime for Mexico's Oil

Howard Lisnoff
When Torture Was Practiced on U.S. Soil

Website of the Day
Rachel Corrie Soccer Tournament

July 14, 2008

Uri Avnery
Will Israel and / or the US Attack Iran?

Paul Craig Roberts
Enabling Tyranny

Trish Schuh
Talking to Iran's Only Jewish Member of Parliament: an Interview with Morris Motamed

Patrick Cockburn
Immunity in Iraq

Mike Whitney
Betancourt Unbound

Alan Farago
Will Miami's Cubans Vote Blue?

Seth Sandronsky
Taxing U.S. Stocks and Bonds

Phyllis Pollack
Stones Paint It Black

Website of the Day
Our Pal in Butte, Jackie Corr, RIP

July 12 / 13, 2008

Alexander Cockburn
Lock and Load--It's the Law!

Jeffrey St. Clair
The Origins of the Western Greens

James Abourezk
Talking World War III Blues: From Dylan to Iran

Nicole Colson
The Ethanol Scam

Stan Cox
Fixing a Broken Agriculture

Ismael Hossein-Zadeh
Is There an Oil Shortage?

Wajahat Ali /
Omid Safi
The Future of Iran: an Interview with Iranian Nobel Laureate Shirin Ebadi

John Stauber
There May be a Left, But is it Moving? An Interview with David Sirota

Alan Farago
The Crash of the King of Liquidity

Missy Beattie
Dark Neighborhoods

Robert Fantina
Bush's Last Yes Man: Canada, Guantanamo and Yankee Poodles

Rannie Amiri
Mubarak Hires the Mosque

Gregory Kafoury
After the Obama Betrayal

Fran Shor
The Audacity of Hype

Martha Rosenberg
Why Heifer International is Rolling in Dung

David Macaray
Will There be an Actors Strike?

Andrew Wimmer
No Lies! No War!

Ron Jacobs
They Call Me the Seeker

Farzana Versey
The Kashmir Chiaroscuro

Kim Nicolini
Angelina Jolie's Wanted: Taking the M-Fers Down with Guns and Exploding Rats

Poets' Basement
Wright, Fleming, Solomon and Birnbaum

Website of the Weekend
Parsing Jesse Ventura

July 11, 2008

Kevin Alexander Gray
Why Does Barack Obama Hate My Family?

Sasan Fayazmanesh
Historical Amnesia and the Shoot Down of Iran Air Flight 655

Peter Morici
Breaking Down the Trade Deficit

Mike Whitney
Worse Than McCain?

Manuel Garcia, Jr.
Oiling the War Machine

Robert Weissman
Crime, Punishment and ExxonMobil

Ramzy Baroud
The Not-So-Historic Barak-Talabani Handshake

Kelly Overton
If There is a Chimp Heaven

Adrian Burgos
In Praise of Jules Tygiel

Website of the Day
Wendell Berry on Mountaintop Removal

July 10, 2008

Brian McKenna
McCain's Melanoma Cover-Up

Paul Craig Roberts
Watching Greed Murder the Economy

Saul Landau
Mississippi River Blues

Ron Jacobs
Who Will Leave Iraq First?

Joshua Frank
Cutting Deals with Big Timber's Darth Vader

Peter Morici
What's Driving the Wall Street Rout

Alan Maass
Jesse Helms Finally Does the Right Thing

Robert Weissman
Humanitarian Failure at the G8

William Blum
Dr. Strangelove

Alan Farago
Coral Reef Meltdown

Website of the Day
Lieberman Must Go!

July 9, 2008

Ismael Hossein-Zadeh
Are They Really Oil Wars?

Luis Rodriguez
The Deadly Fallout from Gang Injunctions

Sheldon Richman
What's Wrong with Selling Your Vote?

Fatemeh Keshavarz
Lessons from Sa'di of Shiraz on "Enhanced Interrogation Techniques"

Chad Hanson
Blowing Smoke: Logging Industry Lies on Forest Fires and Climate Change

Sen. Russ Feingold
The Problems with the FISA Bill

Niranjan Ramakrishnan
Defining Deviancy Down with FISA

Dave Lindorff
Paul Krugman's Blind Spot

Stanley Heller
A Damned Good Assembly

Philip Rizk
Sick at the Gaza Crossing

Website of the Day
Mumia on Nader

July 8, 2008

Nikolas Kozloff
Riding the Colombia Gravy Train

Laura Carlsen
North America Doesn't Exist: the New Geography of Trade

Mike Whitney
Bush's Rampage in Somalia

Andy Worthington
Scandal at Diego Garcia

Patrick Irelan
The Empire Goes to the Movies

Chellis Glendinning
The Un-tied States of America

David Macaray
A Union Story

Dave Lindorff
Mumia's Long-Shot Appeal

John Chuckman
The Myths of Independence Day

Phillip Doe
FISA and the Decline of America

Website of the Day
Daniel Ellsberg on Warrantless Wiretap Bill

July 7, 2008

Patrick Bond
Can Reparations for Apartheid Profits be Won in US Courts?

Kathy Kelly
Cold Shoulders

Andy Worthington
Repatriation as Russian Roulette

Clifton Ross
A Rescue Staged for the Screen

Elizabeth Schulte
Obama's War Room

Ralph Nader
The Patriotism of Deeds

Dave Lindorff
Keeping Count

Binoy Kampmark
The World According to Jesse Helms

Stephen Fleischman
Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Change

Website of the Day
Time for a Change

July 5 / 6, 2008

Alexander Cockburn
Could Anyone be "Worse" Than Bush?

Jeffrey St. Clair /
Joshua Frank

Preliminary Notes from No Man's Land

Patrick Cockburn
Blowback from a Strike on Iran

Mike Whitney
Hunkering Down in Afghanistan with Field Marshall Obama

Robert Fantina
Obama, Iraq and Change

Binoy Kampmark
The Anwar Case: Snitching and Sodomizing

Rannie Amiri
Can Nasrallah Unite Lebanon?

Eric Ruder
Hidden Casualties

Brian Cloughley
Israel Flexes Its Muscles

William Blum
Some Thoughts on Patriotism

Frank Barat
The One-Word Solution

Christopher Brauchli
Bush's Phony Pollution Accounting

David Yearsley
Rubbert Shines, as US Envoy Puts Foot in His Mouth

Ron Jacobs
U.S. Blues

Karim Makdisi
On Soccer and Politics in Lebanon

Wendy Thompson /
Chris Kutalik

What Can We Learn from the American Axle Strike?

N.D. Jayaprakash
The NPT as a Roadblock to Disarmament

Ramzy Baroud
Journalistic Imperatives

Kelly Overton
Animal Rights and Obama

Richard Neville
Bitch Fights and Tomorrow's Top Model

Poets' Basement
Anderson, Gibbons, Matson and Buknatski

Website of the Weekend
Ginsberg and Cassady on "Extremists"

 

July 4, 2008

Kathy Kelly
Istiklal

Dave Lindorff
My War Story

Paul Krassner
Confessions of a Barista

Jackie Corr
In the Footsteps of Evel Knievel: Obama Heads Back to Butte

Laray Polk
Military-Industrial Convergence

Dan Bacher
Dead Runs: Salmon Fishing Banned in Central Valley Rivers

Walter Brasch
The Rocket's Red Glare--May be Chinese

Charles Modiano
Hall of Fame Hypocrisy

Website of the Day
Springsteen: Independence Day

July 3, 2008

Sharon Smith
Exxon's Legal Guardians

Andy Worthington
Another Torture Victim Gets Charged

Laura Carlsen
NAFTA and the Elephant in the Room

Peter Morici
Crisis Grips the Jobs Market

Ramzi Kysia
Breaking Into a Prison

Martha Rosenberg
Mandatory School Milk and the Early Death of Football Players

Anne Landman
Who Really Benefits From Voluntary Codes of Corporate Conduct?

Dave Zirin
Grand Theft Hoops

Kristin Bricker
US Contractor Leads Torture Training in Mexico

Website of the Day
Bush Tours America to Survey Damage from His Presidency

 

July 2, 2008

Patrick Irelan
Holy Obama

Vijay Prashad
Lunch with Karzai

Brian Cloughley
Sense of Honor, French and US Style

Ralph Nader
Economic Domino Theory

Robert Fantina
General Stupidity: McCain, Obama and Clark

Dave Lindorff
What's So Special About Veterans?

Parvez Ahmed
Obama and Those Pesky Muslim Rumors

Robert Bryce
The Democrats and Off-Shore Drilling

Website of the Day
King Corn: Q&A

July 1, 2008

Alexander Cockburn
Two Months Later, Seymour Hersh Strains to Catch Up With CounterPunch

Mike Whitney
Getting to the Heart of America's Economic Crisis: an Interview with Michael Hudson

Douglas Macgregor
Obama's General?

Steven Higgs
Fighting the NAFTA Super-Highway

Andy Worthington
Guantánamo as Alice in Wonderland

Binoy Kampmark
The Global Seed Police

Dave Lindorff
Blood Money Democrats

Roger Burbach
Fighting Food Fascism

Richard W. Behan
The Story Behind George Bush's Lies

Gary Leupp
The McCain Edge Among Voters on Iraq

Website of the Day
Mountaintop Removal and the Fight for Coalfield Justice


July 16, 2008

Iran, Israel and the Prospects for War

To the Edge in the Middle East

By CONN HALLINAN

Will they, or won’t they? Is Israel on a collision course with Iran, or is all the recent saber rattling about Israeli politics?

On the “whack Teheran” side of the equation are several hair-raising statements and a recent war game that practiced just such an attack.

Last month, Shaul Mofaz, Israel’s Transport Minister and a deputy prime minister, said “If Iran continues with its program for developing nuclear weapons, we will attack it. The sanctions are ineffective.” Such an attack was becoming “unavoidable,” he added.

Such talk is hardly new. Israeli Public Security Minister Avi Dichter made it clear last December that Israel does not accept the conclusion of 16 U.S. intelligence agencies that Iran halted its nuclear weapon program in 2003. Dichter warned that “The American misconception concerning Iran’s nuclear weapons is liable to lead to a regional Yom Kipper [referring to the 1973 surprise attack on Israel] where Israel will be among the countries threatened.” Dichter is the former head of Israel’s internal intelligence agency, Shin Bet.
According to Agence France-Presse, Shabtai Shavit, the former head of Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence organization, estimates Iran will have a nuclear weapon within “somewhere around a year” and, if sanctions don’t derail its current program, “what’s left is a military action.”

Prime Minster Ehud Olmert also rejects the U.S. intelligence finding, as do President George Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney. In a meeting with Cheney last March, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said that “no option” against Iran would be ruled out.

In April, National Infrastructure Minister Benjamin Ben-Elizer warned that if Iran attacked Israel—a scenario virtually no one outside of Israel and the White House thinks is credible—it “would lead to the destruction of the Iranian nation.” Speaking on the eve of a five-day national civil defense exercise, Ben-Elizer said “The Iranians are aware of our strength but continue to provoke us by arming their Syrian allies and Hezbollah,” suggesting that the Israelis might also hold Teheran responsible for any dust-up with Syria or Lebanon.

Writing in the Beirut Daily Star, former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer says he considers it “likely” that Israel will attack Iran before Bush leaves office. “The threat of another military confrontation hangs like a dark cloud over the Middle East.” Fischer speculates “that during his visit, Bush gave Israel the green light for an attack on Iran.”

Former UN delegate and designated neo-conservative berserker John Bolton recently said much the same thing, predicting an attack after the U.S. elections but before Bush leaves office.

Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer and currently with the Brookings Institute, told Reuters, “History shows Israel will use force to maintain its monopoly on nuclear weapons in the Middle East,” and conjectures that “Israeli leaders may see the last few months of a friendly Bush Administration as a window of opportunity.”

Lastly, in late May and early June, Israeli Air Force war games, code name “Glorious Spartan 08,” practiced long-range bombing attacks, as well as search and rescue operations, over the eastern Mediterranean. Israeli aircraft destroyed an Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981 and bombed a site in Syria last year, claiming it was a nuclear facility.

But all this bombast is hardly a reflection of general sentiment in Israel. According to a poll conducted by Shivuk Panorama last December, two-thirds of the Israelis are opposed to attacking Iran. Asked “Should Israel alone attack the Iranian nuclear installations?”, 67.2 percent said “no,” 20.9 percent said “yes,” and 11.9 percent had no opinion.

There was also a sharp backlash at Mofaz for his “inevitable” attack remark.

Deputy Defense Minister Matan Vilnai charged that Mofaz’s comments were a “cynical use of central strategic issues for internal political reasons.”
Mofaz is positioning himself in the ruling Kadima government to take over should Olmert be brought down by corruption charges currently pending against him. Mofaz, a hawk on security issues, is trying to outmaneuver the more centrist Foreign Minster Tzipi Livni, who also has her eye on the prime minister post.

Indeed, Livni has privately pooh-poohed the Iranian threat. Late last year, the Israeli daily Haaretz reported that “in a series of closed discussions,” the Foreign Minister’s opinion was “that Iranian nuclear weapons did not pose an existential threat to Israel.” According to Haaretz correspondents Gidi Weitz and Na’ama Lanski, “Livni also criticized the exaggerated use that Prime Minster Ehud Olmert is making of the issue of the Iranian bomb, claiming that he is attempting to rally the public around him by playing on its most basic fears.”

The Israeli press unanimously denounced Mofaz’s threat. Haaretz pointed out that his remark raised the price of oil $11 a barrel, adding “On the one hand that is impressive productivity; on the other it is scary. What is he planning for us during the real campaign? A world war? A clash of the Titans?”

An Israeli foreign ministry official told Agence France Press “Everyone in the country understands his motives are election-related, but making statements like this puts Israel in a very awkward position internationally.”

Speaking on Israeli Public Radio, a “senior defense ministry official” said Mofaz’s comments were “irresponsible and do not reflect the position of our government.” Even right-wing Likud Party MP Yuval Steinitz said Mofaz was “completely irresponsible to say these kind of things.”

So who’s on first?

There is no doubt that Mofaz is trying to carve out a position on the right, partly to distinguish himself from Livni, partly to steal some thunder from right-wing Likud champion Benjamin Netanyahu. But Dichter’s and Shavit’s remarks reflect a powerful section of the Israeli establishment that is not shy about using military force to settle political questions, be it with neighboring countries or in the Occupied Territories.

Could Israel pull off such an attack? According to an Israeli assessment uncovered by the Financial Times, yes.

Israeli planes armed with 2,000 lb and 5,000 lb laser-guided U.S. bunker busters would attack the Iranian enrichment plant at Natanz, and the heavy water production reactors at Arak. Submarine-fired cruise missiles would take out the light water reactor at Bushehr.

Israeli planes would probably emerge relatively unscathed. The only thing the Iranians can throw up against them are ancient F-4 Phantoms, a very good plane in its day, but now 40 years old. Israel’s U.S.-made F-15 and F-16, packing U.S. Sidewinder air-to air-missiles, would make short work of them.

Iran may have purchased Russian SA-20 anti-aircraft missiles, but nothing has been fielded yet.

That such an attack would halt Iran’s nuclear program is doubtful. Iran has put most of its nuclear facilities underground and reportedly has dispersed them widely.

Since Turkey and Syria would refuse to allow Israeli planes to fly over them, Israel would have to cross Jordan and then Iraq to launch the attack. The Jordanians would object, but there is little they could do about it, in part because they don’t have the military capacity to resist, in part because Amman is pretty much in hock to the U.S.

Because the U.S. controls Iraqi airspace, Washington would be in the middle of all this even if an American plane never left the ground. The Baghdad government would certainly protest, but it has even less military capabilities and political juice than the Jordanians. Washington would politely tell Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to stuff it.

It is even possible that the U.S. would join the attack.

An analysis by the Financial Times suggests that Tel Aviv’s threats might be aimed at convincing the U.S. that an Israeli attack was “inevitable,” thus pressuring Washington “to launch one itself to improve the chances of success.”

However, the U.S. military (with the exception of the Air Force) seems less than enthusiastic about undertaking such an attack. Speaking to reporters July 2, Admiral Michael Mullen, chair of the U.S, Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned about the dangers of opening a “third front,” and instead called for a “dialogue” with Iran.

According to Anthony Cordsman of the U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies, during Mullen’s recent trip to Israel the admiral Mullens warned the Israelis that the U.S. would not back an attack on Iran during the admiral’s recent trip to Israel.

The recent expose of the Bush Administration’s efforts to destabilize Iran using U.S. Special Forces and ethnic minorities clearly was leaked to investigative journalist Seymour Hersh by high-ranking military officers unhappy with the prospect of yet another war in the Middle East.

Nevertheless, a non-binding resolution heavily promoted by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee—H.Con.Res.362—is currently winding its way through the House and the Senate The legislation essentially calls for a U.S.-enforced blockade of Iran. It would prohibit “the export to Iran of all refined petroleum products; imposing stringent inspection requirements on  all persons, vehicles, ships, planes, trains, and cargo entering or departing Iran; and prohibiting the international movement of all Iranian officials not involved in negotiating the suspension of Iran’s nuclear program.”

A blockade is a violation of international law. It is also an act of war.

The fallout from a war with Iran—some of it nuclear, most of it political—would be severe. It could ignite a regional war, and even if the Iranians don’t manage to close the Straits of Hormutz, oil prices would likely double (or triple). That, in turn, would send food costs, energy prices, and transportation expenses through the roof.

Israeli analyst Alex Fishman sees the threats directed at Iran as part of a campaign to create a crisis “until someone blinks.” The problem with that strategy, he points out, is that “threats have a dynamic of their own…what happens if the Iranians don’t blink?”

Conn Hallinan is an analyst for Foreign Policy in Focus.

  

 

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