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Today's Stories Today's Stories March 15 / 16, 2008 Ralph Nader March 14, 2008 Paul Craig
Roberts Don Santina
Patrick Cockburn
Tim Rinne Robert Fantina
Saul Landau
David Macaray
Franklin Lamb
Michael Neumann
March 13, 2008 Paul Craig
Roberts Mike Whitney
Assaf Kfoury
Andy Worthington Adam Federman
March 12, 2008 Dave Lindorff
R.F. Blader
Yonatan Mendel
Jonathan Cook
Bill and Kathy
Christison James J. Brittain
Ron Jacobs
March 11, 2008 Paul Craig
Roberts Ed O'Loughlin
Ramzy Baroud Kathy Christison
China Hand John Joslin
Mike Averko
Ben Rosenfeld
Thierry Paquot
March 10, 2008 Uri Avnery
Col. Dan Smith
R.F. Blader
Michael Neumann
Bob Fitrakis
and Harvey Wasserman James J. Brittain
Missy Comley
Beattie March 8-9, 2008 Weekend Edition JoAnn Wypijewski
Mike Whitney
Peter Morici
Ralph Nader
Jonathan Cook
Steve Niva
Bill and Kathy
Christison Hervé
Do Alto and Franck Poupeau Eric Walberg
Scott Johnson
Mark Scaramella
Bill Clinton Poet's Basement
Website of
the Weekend March 7, 2008 Patrick Cockburn
Robin Blackburn
Saul Landau
Binoy Kampmark
Chris Floyd
Andy Worthington Will Potter March 6, 2008
March 6, 2008 Vincent Navarro Forrest Hylton Peter Morici George Ciccariello-Maher John Ross Jacob Hornberger Paul Watson Dan Bacher Website of the Day
March 5, 2008 Cockburn /
St. Clair Joanne Mariner Fidel Castro Christopher
Brauchli Steven Sherman Dave Lindorff James Murren Adam Engel Website of Day
March 4, 2008 Wajahat Ali William Blum Bill Quigley Ralph Nader Patrick Irelan James J. Brittain
/ Norman Solomon Jacob Hornberger Andy Worthington Mike Averko Website of the Day
March 3, 2008 Jennifer Loewenstein Alan Farago Richard Gott Wajahat Ali Paul Craig Roberts Robert Weissman Uri Avnery Martha Rosenberg Eva Liddell Michael Donnelly Website of the Day
March 1 / 2, 2008 Alexander Cockburn Paul Craig
Roberts Kathleen and Bill Christison Nelson P. Valdés Christopher Brauchli Ron Jacobs John Ross Robert Fantina Robert Weissman Mohammed Omer Remi Kanazi Bob Jackson Richard Rhames Franklin Lamb Rannie Amiri David Michael
Green Conn Hallinan Faheem Hussain Poets' Basement Website of
the Weekend
February 29, 2008 Matt Gonzalez Jonathan Cook Joshua Frank Anthony DiMaggio Linn Washington, Jr. Binoy Kampmark Robert Bryce Sonja Karkar Dave Lindorff Website of
the Day
February 28, 2008 Patrick Cockburn Fred Gardner Michael Levitin William S.
Lind David Macaray Stephen Fleischman George Wuerthner Laura Carlsen Carl Finamore Michael Dickinson Website of the Day
February 27, 2008 David Rosen Vijay Prashad Harvey Wasserman Andy Worthington Wajahat Ali Peter Morici Stephen Philion Michael Donnelly Erica Rosenberg / Website of
the Day
February 26, 2008 Debbie Nathan Alan Dershowitz
Harvey Wasserman Michael Colby Gary Leupp David Orchard Martha Rosenberg Fran Shor Serge Halimi Global Balkans Website of
the Day
February 25, 2008 Roger Morris Anthony DiMaggio Ralph Nader Patrick Cockburn Paul Craig Roberts Peter Morici Dave Lindorff Saul Landau
/ Heather Gray Robert Weitzel John Halle Website of the Day
Alexander Cockburn Paul Craig
Roberts Wajahat Ali Ralph Nader Jürgen
Vsych Fidel Castro Andy Worthington David Macaray Jeremy Scahill David Krieger Ron Jacobs Michael Garrity Brian McKenna Missy Beattie Fred Gardner Boris Kagarlitsky Mike Ferner Dan Bacher Christopher
Ketcham Poets' Basement Website of
the Weekend
February 22, 2008 Mike Whitney Jason Hribal Liaquat Ali Khan Joshua Frank Dave Lindorff Liliana Segura Robert Fantina Yifat Susskind Norm Kent Website of
the Day February 21, 2008 Saul Landau Elizabeth Schulte Helen Redmond Benjamin Dangl Michael Levitin Liam Leonard Patrick Irelan Linn Cohen-Cole Michael Simmons CounterPunch
News Service Website of the Day
February 20, 2008 Paul Craig
Roberts Paul Krassner Fawzia Afzal-Khan Farzana Versey Allan Nairn John V. Whitbeck Niranjan Ramakrishnan Steve Eckardt Lee Sustar Mike Ferner Website of the Day
February 19, 2008 Uri Avnery Paul Craig
Roberts Gary Leupp Fidel Castro David Macaray Reza Fiyouzat Valerie Morse Walter Brasch Website of the Day
February 18, 2008 Wajahat Ali Diana Johnstone Paul Craig Roberts Andy Worthington Debbie Nathan Anthony DiMaggio Bill Simpich Eva Liddell Christopher Brauchli Stephen Soldz Johann Rossouw Website of
the Day
February 16 / 17, 2008 Alexander Cockburn Ralph Nader David Macaray William J.
Peace Ron Jacobs Diane Christian Alan Maass Ramzy Baroud Michael Donnelly Cpt. Paul Watson James L. Secor Eve Bachrach Nikolas Kozloff Stephen Gowans Missy Beattie David Michael
Green Wajahat Ali Poets' Basement Website of the Day
February 15, 2008 George Szamuely Patrick Cockburn Wajahat Ali Mike Whitney Alan Farago Chris Genovali Jacob Hornberger Dave Lindorff Website of the Day
February 14, 2008 Kathleen and
Bill Christison Mike Whitney Clancy Sigal George Wuerthner Peter Morici John Ross Allan Nairn Rannie Amiri Niranjan Ramakrishnan Donna Volatile Seth Sandronsky Website of
the Day
February 13, 2008 Nikolas Kozloff Alan Farago Christina Kasica Vicente Navarro Hall Greenland Lee Sustar David Macaray Roderick Frazier
Nash Patrick Irelan Anthony Papa Carl Finamore Website of
the Day
February 12, 2008 Frank J. Menetrez Paul Craig
Roberts Dr. Trudy Bond Andy Worthington Col. Dan Smith Ronnie Cummins Ralph Nader John V. Walsh Dave Lindorff Michael Donnelly Ron Jacobs Ben Tripp Website of the Day
February 11, 2008 Cockburn /
St. Clair Wajahat Ali Ray McGovern Allan Nairn Uri Avnery Chris Floyd Martha Rosenberg Stephen Fleischman Marc Lamont Hill Liliana Segura Peter Morici Christopher
Brauchli Website of the Day
February 8 / 10, 2008 Paul Craig
Roberts Patrick Cockburn Mike Whitney Anthony DiMaggio Andy Worthington Linn Cohen-Cole Firmin DeBrabander Cpt. Paul Watson Kenneth S. Pope Jacob G. Hornberger Robert Bryce P. Sainath Allan Nairn Fred Gardner
/ Andrew Wimmer Robert Fantina David Michael Green Kevin Zeese Peter Morici Chris Driscoll Prairie Miller Poets Basement
February 7, 2008 Patrick Cockburn Bill Christison David Anderson Ron Jacobs Nikolas Kozloff Jane Rockefeller Andy Worthington
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Weekend
Edition A Day Late, $3 Trillion Short and a Generation BehindFourth Generation Warfare in a Fifth Generation ConflictBy JOHN GOEKLER While presidential candidates carefully nuance positions on how long and how many US troops should remain in Iraq, the facts on the ground indicate only one viable course. The situation has evolved beyond the capacity of the US to achieve any kind of acceptable outcome, and we should immediately begin a total withdrawal. Iraq has morphed from a fourth generation war (4GW)--for which US forces began belatedly to prepare under the leadership of General David Petraeus--into a fifth generation conflict (5GW). The difference is profound, and it obviates our political strategy, our military strategy and our superior firepower. 4GW is a known entity. It's been around at least since Mao (and many would argue before), and has been well documented in Malaysia, Algeria and Viet Nam. Its key characteristic is asymmetric force levels and capabilities, which dictates that the militarily weaker side must primarily wage guerilla warfare. While 4GW is "messy" in that it primarily attacks soft targets, it is "neat" in terms of grand strategy. It entails two well-defined sides, each of whom wishes to emerge as, or maintain, the recognized government. The battle is for "hearts and minds" and winning is defined as controlling the levers of state power. Insurgents try to delegitimize the state by disrupting delivery of services and security, while counterinsurgents attempt to shore up the state through "armed social work". 5GW is a whole other kettle of fish. In 5GW, the goal is not to seize the levers of power so much as it is to weaken or "hollow out" state control, in order to fill the ensuing vacuum. The actors are not necessarily political movements, or even recognized groups. Their motivation is as likely to be micro-economic as ideological, and may be social or--most likely--some blend of the above. To conflate these under any label, be it "jihadists", "losers and dead-enders" or "militias" is to misunderstand them completely. In fact, the most fundamental "organizing principles" of 5GW groups may well be protection, social identity and simple entertainment. In a disintegrating culture lacking social anchors and awash with weapons--much like some of America's inner cities--joining a "gang" simply makes sense. It offers identity, belonging, livelihood and lifestyle. It is the ultimate social network, because the stakes--literally life and death--are so high. Fighting the American occupation, as well as competing groups, bestows honor and prestige as well as meaning and purpose in a society otherwise devoid of these. 5GW is sometimes called, "open source" warfare, or "war of super-empowered individuals", because modern weapons and technologies have conferred tremendous power on small actors. One person with a kilo of plastic explosive and a simple detonator can do millions of dollars in damage to key infrastructure, such as pipelines, electrical grids, water treatment plants or bridges. What the US did by disbanding the civil and military infrastructure of Iraq was create the underlying conditions for 5GW. By failing to supply adequate troops to provide security, we allowed looters and entrepreneurs to dismantle the physical infrastructure of the country, and militias and death squads to dismantle the social infrastructure. Shattering the authority of the state opened myriad opportunities for 5GW actors. Today, it's nearly impossible to identify all the players in Iraq. They range from large, visible groups such as the Mahdi Army and Iraqi Security Volunteers, to shadowy groups like Al Qaeda in Iraq and the 1920 Revolution Brigades, to tribes, clans and neighborhood gangs. Their motives are as large as expelling all foreign forces, and as small as controlling rentals, electricity or fuel sales in a neighborhood for income. America's strategic leaders, unfortunately, have not recognized the implications of this shift. Our troops are operating under the guidelines of FM 3-24, the US Army Counterinsurgency Manual. (Marine Corps Warfighting Publication 3-33.5) FM 3-24 defines insurgency as, "an organized movement aimed at the overthrow of a constituted government through the use of subversion and armed conflict." In fact, we are fighting a shadowy web of networks that sometimes collaborate and sometimes compete with the government and each other. The "enemy" is a "shape shifter"--sometimes police, sometimes militia, sometimes civilian, sometimes tribal and sometimes simply criminal. But, supporters of the war argue, the "surge" is working. Violence and US casualties are down. We just have to stay the course. We're winning. NOT! Those trends are the result of complex interactions, almost none of which are within our control, or even within our capacity to significantly influence. (Further, many of the statistics that detail these trends are "cooked" to provide evidence of success, just like body counts in Viet Nam.) The truce declared by Muqtada al-Sadr has largely stood down the Mahdi Army, perhaps the largest and most capable militia in the country. This single factor has reduced violence by an estimated 60 percent. But while the Mahdi Army is not overtly fighting our forces, it is continually upgrading its weapons, training and tactics, while al-Sadr gains greater political influence. They will be back when al-Sadr deems it appropriate--or when his influence over them wanes and they begin to self-organize and take independent actions. It is important to note that throughout the truce with US forces, Mahdi fighters have continued to battle in the south for control of oil and the lucrative pilgrimage trade. Most of the decline in sectarian violence is attributable to the near completion of religious / ethnic cleansing of neighborhoods and provinces. As with the decline in the murder rates of American cities after drug gangs consolidated their territories, the displacement of Sunni and Shia from each other's areas has largely stopped the killings that effected that emptying. It is an indicator of further splintering, not integration. The Iraqi government remains a joke, incapable of controlling even the Green Zone, much less providing the jobs and development necessary to offer an alternative to militia or gang membership. Bear in mind we're over four years into the process of the Iraqi government "standing up" so we can stand down. Progress in that time has essentially been non-existent, or even negative. The decline in clashes with Sunni fighters is a result of US forces arming, funding and training the very elements we have fought against over the past four years. We have essentially given our primary opponents a pass, and in the process violated the cardinal rule of counterinsurgency, which is to enhance the legitimacy of the host government. These "Awakening" groups, which number in the dozens, will provide a focus of armed opposition to the Shiite-dominated Iraqi government far into the future. If anything, the surge has provided both the Shiites and the Sunnis with more and better weapons, and greater legitimacy, while further undermining the central government and creating even more enemies to stand against it and us. Our military is severely overstretched, and civilian and military casualties are again rising. Are there viable options other than immediate and total withdrawal? In a word, no. Maintaining the surge is impossible. We simply do not have the troops. Moreover, the troops we do have are needed elsewhere, especially in Afghanistan, where we can still succeed. Withdrawing to the "permanent" bases we are building around the country is not sustainable either. To secure and pacify the surrounding territory requires more resources than we can deploy long-term. The inability to do so makes out troops constant targets. In addition, that reality will worsen. Within a short time, insurgents will be able to use cheap GPS guidance systems and Google Earth coordinates to send their own precision guided munitions at those bases. Random rocket attacks and mortaring will evolve into effectively targeted attacks, with all that implies. (Israel would do well to understand this, too.) As long as US forces are in Iraq, it will indeed be the "central front" in the war on terror--for the bad guys. Iraq is a first class training ground for al Qaeda and the Taliban. As long as we're there, they gain sympathy, converts and, most important, experience. The Taliban is already employing advanced tactics learned in Iraq, including "martyr attacks" and more sophisticated IED's. The hard reality is, Iraq is no longer a counterinsurgency campaign. It is a hostile occupation in a 5GW environment. And while not all counterinsurgency campaigns fail, all hostile occupations ultimately do. The question is only over what time frame. The United State has failed in Iraq, and there is no way to reverse that reality with our logistical and moral constraints. It is time to withdraw all of our troops, beginning immediately. John Goekler is a consultant and trainer in Complex
Adaptive Systems from Santa Fe, New Mexico.
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