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JAMES WEBB: IF THE DEMOCRATS WANT A POPULIST,
IT'S HIM, FOR BETTER AND FOR WORSE

JoAnn Wypijewski on how Webb really talks on his home turf in Virginia and on the two faces of populism, dark and lite. The New Yorker helped sell the war in Iraq. Now see how it shills for the drug companies at home. Fred Gardner finds Malcolm Gladwell, at the bottom of the New Yorker's deep barrel. David Petraeus is the favorite general of Bush and the New York Times. Alexander Cockburn on how the salesman of surge sold himself. Remember contributions are tax-deductible. Click here to make a donation. If you find our site useful please: Subscribe Now

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Today's Stories

February 5, 2007

Newton Garver
Bush and the Old Hands: Decider vs. Negotiator

February 3 /4, 2007

Alexander Cockburn
Who Can Stop the War?

Tao Ruspoli
CounterViews: a Conversation with Dr. Susan Block on Sex, Censorship and Liberation

Jeffrey St. Clair
The Thrill is Gone: the Withering of the American Environmental Movement

Patrick Cockburn
Iraqis on the Run

P. Sainath
They Take the Early Train

Sen. Russell Feingold
A Symbol of a Timid Congress

Diane Christian
Dying Well: Why Killing Saddam Backfired on Bush

Brian Cloughley
Space Missiles Away!: the Irony of Bush's Indignation

Diana Barahona
How to Turn a Priest into a Cannibal: US Reporting on the Coup in Haiti

Timothy J. Freeman
The Iraq War Hits Hawai'i: the Stryker Brigade and the Watada Case

Conn Hallinan
The Vishnu Strategy

John Ross
Felipe's First Fifty Days

Greg Moses
The Government Blinks: Freedom for the Ibrahim Family

Missy Beattie
No More Rebukes or Non-Binding Resolutions

Joshua Frank
Unsafe in Any Seas: Cruising with Ralph Nader?

Evelyn Pringle
"These Drugs are Poison to Some People"

Stephen Fleischman
Let's Hear It for Chuck Hagel!

Muhammad Idrees Ahmad
Iraq in Fragments

Poets' Basement
Holt, Engel, Ford and Saavedra

Website of the Day
Flamenco Dali


February 2, 2007

Chris Kutalik
The Meanest Industry

R. Gibson / E. W. Ross
Cutting the Schools-to-War Pipeline

Pam Martens
America's "Money Honey" as Corporate Matchmaker: Maria Bartiromo and the Co-Branding of CNBC and Citigroup

John Feffer
Picturing the President

Daryll E. Ray
Why the Family Farm is Good for Rural America

Ronald Bruce St. John
Apartheid By Any Other Name

Mitchel Cohen
Listen Gore: Some Inconvenient Truths About the Politics of Environmental Crisis

Website of the Day
The Real Issue is Empire


February 1, 2007

Diane Farsetta
An Army Thousands More: How PR Firms and Major Media Military Recruiters

Marjorie Cohn
Bush Targets Iran: Cruise Missile Diplomacy

Mark Scaramella
Our Founding War Profiteers

Ranni Amiri
Senator Prejudice: the Day Joe Biden Threatened to Kick My Ass

Christopher Ketcham
Die, TV!

Winston Warfield
Art Panic Hits Boston!

Corporate Crime Reporter
Jailing the Artists, Not the Executives: the Great Boston Art Panic, Turner Broadcasting and the AG Who Won't Pursue Corporate Crime

Thomas P. Healy
Adios Molly Ivins: Populist Journalism and Never Dull

Website of the Dau
The Ordeal of Gary Tyler

 

January 31, 2007

Patrick Cockburn
Waco of Iraq?: US "Victory" Cult Leader was a "Massacre"

Jean Bricmont
What is the Decisive "Clash" of Our Time?

Tao Ruspoli
CounterViews: a Conversation with Dr. Susan Block on Sex, Politics and Liberation

James T. Phillips
Flashbacks de Jour: Photographing War

William Johnson
Worker Reistance at Smithfield Foods

Tim Wilkinson
A Hawk in Drag: Dershowitz and the Iraq War

Evelyn Pringle
The Judge, the Reporter and the Secret Zyprexa Documents

Joshua Frank
What America Really Needs to Hear

Ramzy Baroud
Shameless in Gaza

Mickey Z.
Nader Still in the Crosshairs

Website of the Day
What's Goin' On?


January 30, 2007

Werther
Slapstick on Jenkins Hill: DC's Botoxed Golems

Kathy Kelly
Engagement with War

Uri Avnery
"If Arafat Were Alive"

Franklin Spinney
Embedded Without Blending: Humvees and Tactical Madness in Iraq

William S. Lind
The Real Game in Iraq

Pariah
An Iron Curtain is Descending--and Most Americans Don't Know

Mike Whitney
The Mother of All Bubbles

Rev. William E. Alberts
Hiding America's Surging Militarism Behind Children

Fran Shor
Shadow of a Resistance: Can the Anti-War Mvt. Dismantle the War Machine?

Anthony Arnove
The Logic of Withdrawal: There's Nothing Precipitous About It

Website of the Day
Our Boys in Iraq


January 29, 2007

Nurit Peled-Elhanan
"We Are All Victims of the Occupation"

Patrick Cockburn
Raid on the Soldiers of Heaven

JoAnn Wypijewski
The Demo in DC: Chirpy Slogans, Empty City

Ron Jacobs
Our Fire, Congress's Feet

Dave Lindorff
The Missing Word at the Anti-War Demo

Kevin Zeese
A Republican Peace Candidate?: Chuck Hagel's Challenge to America

Reza Fiyouzat
Iran, Bush and the Banging of the Ironsmiths

Pat Williams
Turnout and Same-Day Voting: Did It Sink Conrad Burns?

Website of the Day
Galloway's Indictment of Blair

 

January 27 / 28, 2007

Diana Johnstone
Do We Really Need an International Criminal Court?

Eliza Ernshire
Exiled from Palestine

Patrick Cockburn
Slaughter in Baghdad's Bird Market

David Rosen
Pay-to-Play: the Double Life of Prostitution in America

Greg Moses
Children Without a Country: Maryam Ibrahim Remains in a Texas Jail

Bernard Chazelle
Bush the Empire Slayer

Tao Ruspoli
CounterViews: a Video Interview with Jeffrey St. Clair, Part Two

Hermán Uribe
Murdering Journalists in Latin America

Ralph Nader
Democracy in Crisis

Paul Craig Roberts
Why Can't Americans See What's Coming?

Fred Gardner
The Suppression of Collective Joy: Barbara Ehrenreich at the Commonwealth Club

Brian Cloughley
Dying for Lies

James Abourezk
The High Cost of Congressional Trips to Israel

John V. Whitbeck
The Ethnic Cleansing of Palestine: Ilan Pappe and the Nakba Deniers

Seth Sandronsky
Peace-In Politics: Localizing the Anti-War Movement

Alan Cabal
Mayday from the Circus Tent

Pam Martens
America's Money Honey Does Davos

Website of the Weekend
Gil Scott-Heron: Winter in America


January 26, 2007

Charlotte Laws
Are You the Terrorist Next Door?: AETA and the New Green Scare

Mike Ely / Linda Flores
The Workers at Smithfield

Joe DeRaymond
Paying for Health Care and Not Getting It

Phil Donahue
Get Sarah Olson!

Zia Mian
The Three US Armies in Iraq: Grunts, Contractors and Laborers

Jeb Sprague
Haiti Struggles to Defend Justice

Evelyn Pringle
Eli Lilly, the Habitual Offender

Missy Beattie
Inside the Criminal Mind of George Bush: He Thinks; Therefore, It is So

Martha Rosenberg
Cloned Food: From Designer Hens to the Transgenic Omega-3 Pig

Website of the Day
Save Grand Canyon from Glen Canyon Dam!


January 25, 2007

Patrick Cockburn
What's Really Going on in Baghdad

John Ross
Mexico Under Calderon: Fake Left, Rule Right

Jeremy Scahill
Our Mercenaries: Blackwater, Inc and the Privatization of Bush's War Machine

Frida Berrigan
"Hearts Ruptured with Sadness:" Protesting Gitmo

Paul Craig Roberts
Bush's State of Deception

Jason Yossef Ben-Meir
Iraq Reconstruction Failure

Christopher Brauchli
Why Bush is Arming Fatah: When in Doubt, Start Another Civil War

Holger W. Henke
Cuba at the Crossroads?

Dave Lindorff
Falling Dominos and Failing Presidencies

Julia Landau
From Your Young Cousin

Website of the Day
The Mighty Edwards Sisters

 

January 24, 2007

Tao Ruspoli
CounterViews: a Filmed Interview with Jeffrey St. Clair

Paul Craig Roberts
The Empire Turns Its Guns on the Citizenry

Lt. Gen. William Odom
What Can be Done in Iraq?

Sharon Smith
Health Care Reform for the Insurance Industry

Brian M. Downing
Two Americas: the Grunts and the War Profiteers

Heather Gray
Surviving War

Ron Jacobs
SOTUS Quo

James Brooks
Out of Europe, Out of Time

Robert Day
Translating Snow

Website of the Day
Defend Sarah Olsen


January 23, 2007

Trish Schuh
Lebanon on the Brink of Civil War, Again

Robert Bryce
The Politics of Cheap Oil

Stephen Soldz
Aliens in an Alien Land

John Blair
King Coal's Latest Con Job: Clean Coal is Not Clean

Gloria La Riva
Miami: a Place of Refuge for Anti-Castro Terrorists

Joshua Frank
Turning Silence into Gold: Hillary and Israel Lobby

Patrick Cockburn
In Iraq, All Foreigners are Targets

Ralph Nader
Questions for Bush on Iraq

Dave Lindorff
Pelosi and Iraq: Blunder or Treason?

Uri Avnery
Israel and Apartheid

Website of the Day
Down By the River

 

January 22, 2007

Manuel Garcia, Jr.
China's New Chip in Space War Poker

Jen Marlowe
Trapped in Darfur: the Ordeal of Suleiman Jamous

George McGovern
War of the Belligerent Professors: Get Out of Iraq

Paul Craig Roberts
Only Impeachment Can Save Us from More War

Norman Solomon
The Pentagon vs. Press Freedom

Amira Hass
Life Under Prohibition in Palestine

Mike Whitney
A Fool's Errand in Baghdad

Ramzy Baroud
The Things We Take for Granted

John Walsh
Support Jimmy Carter in Boston!

Website of the Day
The Hagelian Dialectic

 

January 20/21 2007

Alexander Cockburn
First Bomb Carter; Then Nuke Iran!

Gail Dines
I Was Ambushed by Paula Zahn

Newton Garver
Evo Morales' First Year

Gilad Atzmon
100 Years of Jewish Solitude

Seth Sandronksy
New Push For Social Security "Reform"

Raphaelle Bail
Where Nicaraguans Go to Work

Jim Goodman
Round Up the Usual Experts: Make Them Live on a Dollar a Day

Larry Portis
Chouraki's Oh Jerusalem

Website of the Weekend
Press Poodles Play it Safe


January 19, 2007

Jonathan Cook
Jimmy Carter Doesn't Tell the Half of It

Glen Ford
Barack Obama: The Mania and the Mirage

Dave Lindorff
Bush Blinks on Illegal Spying - Don't let him off the hook

Larry Portis
Zionism in the Cinema: Part Two

Website of the Day
For Whistleblowers


January 18, 2007

William Peace
Protest From a Bad Cripple

Virginia Tilley
The Steady March to War on Iran: What It Would Take to Stop It

Michael Donnelly
The Real Reason I Can't Stand Obama

B.R. Gowani
Democracy: Everywhere and Nowhere

Larry Portis
Zionism in the Cinema: Part One

Jason Hribal
A Horse is Worth More than Riches

Website of the Day
Baghdad Clampdown


January 17, 2007

Franklin Spinney
Why Time is not on Bush's Side

John Ross
Oaxaca's Rising: Vibrant as the Paint on the Walls

Susan George
Can World Trade Ever Be Fair? Back to Keynes!

Paul Craig Roberts
Attacking Iran: What's In It For Bush

Joshua Frank
Obama and the Middle East

David Lindorff
Towards Oil at $200 a Barrel


January 16, 2007

Col. Sam Gardiner
Escalation Against Iran

Marjorie Cohn
Stimson's Outrageous Threat

Saul Landau
Gore Vidal in Havana: Part 2

Ron Jacobs
Welcome Back to 1965

Susan Block
From Snowjob to Blowjob

Ken Couesbouck
Year of the Pig

Website of the Day
Amazon's Hit on Jimmy Carter


January 15, 2007

Roger Morris
Another War the Voters Hoped to End

Paul Craig Roberts
Bush Must Go

Kathy Kelly
Umm Heyder's Story

William Blum
The Anti-Empire Report

Ralph Nader
The Class War's New Map

Saul Landau
Gore Vidal In Havana

January 12 / 14, 2007

Patrick Cockburn
"21,500 More Troops": Will America Ever Leave Iraq?

David Rosen
Bush's Domestic Sex Policy: the Teen Abstinence-Only Crusade

William S. Lind
Less Than Zero

Laith al-Saud
The Ironies of Bush and Iraq

Paul Craig Roberts
Surge and Mirrors: What Bush Really Said

John Ross
Celebrating the "Sum of the World" in Chiapas

George Ciccariello-Maher
The Case of Venezuela's RCTV: Not About Free Speech

Christopher Brauchli
How to Avoid an IRS Audit: Become a Millionaire!

Robert Buzzanco
Rogue State, Redux

Evelyn Pringle
The Secrets in Eli Lilly's Cabinet

Peter Rost, MD.
Promises, Promises: Playing Politics with Drug Reimportation

Mike Whitney
Baghdad Crackdown

Yifat Susskind
Beyond the Surge: Demanding an End to Bush's Wars

Saul Cohen
Latin America's Real Mr. Danger: Negroponte's Latest Gig

Missy Beattie
A Day of Action and Questions

Stephen Lendman
Holiday Hypocrisy

Website of the Weekend
Bruegel on Bush War Plan

 

January 11, 2007

Ismael Hossein-Zadeh
The Profits of Escalation

Paul Craig Roberts
Carter's Inconvenient Truths

Kathy Kelly
Refugee Dreams

Dave Lindorff
Blood for Face

Jeff Leys
The War Widens

Richard W. Behan
Barrels and Bodies

Col. Douglas MacGregor
Surging Right Into Al-Sadr's Hands

Website of the Day
An Explanation from Google

Speech of the Day
Is There Even One Politician Alive Who Could Give This Speech?


January 10, 2007

Peter Linebaugh
A Walk in Oaxaca

Robert Fantina
Punishing Deserters: Prosecution or Persecution?

Patrick Cockburn
Why Troop Escalation Won't Bring Peace to Iraq

Paul Craig Roberts
Distracting Congress: Troop Escalation and Iran

Col. Dan Smith
Why U.S. Policy is Failing

Ben Tripp
The Politics of Bad Karma

Evelyn Pringle
How the FDA Protects Big Pharma

Ron Jacobs
Coalition of the Lunatics: Trying to Create the Next World War

Mike Ferner
If Not Now, When?

Dave Zirin
Judgment of the Juiced: Why McGwire Wasn't Elected to the Hall of Fame

Website of the Day
Revolting Students!

Bootleg of the Day
Bob Dylan: Live at Scotia Bank Place


January 9, 2007

R. T. Naylor
The Somalian Labyrinth

Jonathan Cook
Israel's Purging of Palestinian Christians

Mike Ely and Linda Flores
The Smithfield Strikers: No Longer Hidden, No Longer Hiding

Joshua Frank
The Democrats and Iran: More Bellicose Than Bush

Norman Solomon
The Headless Horseman of the Apocalypse

Sen. Russell Feingold
An Open Letter to President Bush: So Now You Want to Snoop Through Our Mail?

Joe Allen
Justice for the Omaha Two: Black Power, Racism and COINTELPRO in the Heartland

James T. Phillips
"Lasciate Ogne Speranza, Voi Ch'Intrate": The Hell That is Iraq

Brian Concannon
Resolutions for Haiti

Leonard Peltier
When the Truth Doesn't Matter: 30 Years of FBI Harassment and Misconduct

Website of the Day
Kick Out the Jams, MFers!: Meet the New RRC

 

January 8, 2007

Werther
Why We Fight

Jeff Leys
The Occupation Project: a Campaign of Civil Disobedience to End Iraq War Funding

Paul Craig Roberts
Nuking Iran

Shulamit Aloni
Israeli Apartheid: Sorry, This Road is For Jews Only

Dave Lindorff
The Party of Invertebrates Reverts to Form

Sunsara Taylor
The Democrats' First Day: Same As It Ever Was

Seth Sandronsky
Syndicated Error: George Will and the Minimum Wage

Dr. Susan Block
Baghdad Cockfight Ends in Snuff Film

Website of the Day
Watch CounterPuncher Sunsara Taylor Take on Bill O'Reilly!


January 6 / 7, 2007

Alexander Cockburn
The War and the NYT

Franklin C. Spinney
Stalingrad on the Tigris

Paul Craig Roberts
The Urge to Surge

Ralph Nader
Democrats in the Spotlight

Walden Bello
Globalization in Retreat?

Marleen Martin
The Needle and the Damage Done: Tortured in the Death Chamber

Brian Cloughley
We Do What We Like: Return Our Rapist or Else ...

Uri Avnery
The Kiss of Death

Saul Landau
Fidel Castro in the Fields

Ron Jacobs
From Cointelpro to the Patriot Act: a Legacy of Torture

Joseph Nevins
Crimes Against Humanity from Ford to Saddam

William S. Lind
A State Restored? Somalia and 4GW

Gary Leupp
Attention John Conyers: Impeach the President!

Elisa Salasin
Bringing Life to Numbers

George Ciccariello-Maher Beyond Chavistas and Anti-Chavistas: Deepening the Bolivarian Revolution

Stefan Wray
Confronting Recruiters: the Story of the Bush Street Raiders

Michael Leonardi
Toward an International Moratorium: Italy's Crusade Against the Death Penalty

Richard Rhames
Reality TV: Triumph of the Thugs

Jeffrey St. Clair
Playlist: What I'm Listening to This Week

Barbara LaMorticella
Two Poems

Website of the Weekend
FBI Witch Hunts

Song of the Weekend
End Times: a Soundtrack


January 5, 2007

Jorge Mariscal
Growing the Military: Who Will Serve?

John Walsh
Clash of the Elites: Beltway Insiders vs. Neo-Cons!

Christopher Brauchli
The Great Relaxer: Bush and Federal Regulations

Travis Sharpe
No More New Nukes, Please

Tom Barry
Hawk for Hire: Roger Noriega's New Gig

Linda Schade / Kevin Zeese
Americans Voted for Peace: Has the New Congress Already Let Them Down?

Tiffany Ten Eyck
Workers' Centers and Unions: a New Alliance

Mahmoud El-Yousseph
A Challenge to Pelosi

Lucinda Marshall
3003 Funerals: "And They're Still Burying Ford!"

Website of the Day
Van the Man: Warm Love


January 4, 2007

Patrick Cockburn
The Martyrdom of Saddam Hussein

Winslow T. Wheeler
A Guide to Earmarks: Will the Democrats' Reforms Do Anything to Curb Pork Barrel Spending?

M. Shahid Alam
Has Regime Change Boomeranged?

Raed Jarrar
So This is Plan B? The US Attack on Saleh Al-Mutlaq's Headquarters

Bert Sacks
Can the US Legally Kill Iraqi Children?: a Challenge to the Supreme Court

Kathy Rentenbach
Report from Oaxaca

Stephen Fleischman
The Rain of Riches: Bonuses, Then and Now

George Bisharat
Carter's Truths

Peter Rost, MD
Hail the Hangman, Jail the Cameraman!

Evelyn Pringle
Can Eli Lilly be Held Criminally Liable for Zyprexa?

Website of the Day
Courage to Resist

 

January 3, 2007

Kathy Kelly
Wrapped Around a Bullet

Paul Craig Roberts
His Last Hurrah: Bush Cuts and Runs from Reason

William Johnson
No Worker is Illegal: SEIU Members Push Their Union to Change Its Policy on Immigration

Stan Cox
Under a Brown Cloud: Money vs. the Monsoon

Trita Parsi
A Lose-Lose Situation with Iran

Declan McKenna
Ireland's Slavish Hostility Toward Cuba

Joe Bageant
Dispatch from the Chinese Landfill

Nicola Nasser
Somalia: New Hotbed of Anti-Americanism

Missy Beattie
Dead Wrong

Website of the Day
Pharmed Out


January 2, 2007

Michael Watts
Oil Inferno

Amina Mire
Return of the Warlords: Death and Destruction for Somalis

James Brooks
Pushing the Wedge in Palestine

Alevtina Rea
The Tyrant is Dead! Long Live ... ?

Al Krebs
Global Food Security: a Call to Action

Peter Rost
Invitation to a Hanging: the Saddam Hussein Execution Video

Niranjan Ramakrishnan
A Deadly December

John Stanton
Appetites for Destruction

Website of the Day
Out Now: Petition

 

January 1, 2007

Patrick Cockburn
Iron Man, Tin God: the Meaning of Saddam Hussein

Uri Avnery
What Makes Sammy Run?

Joshua Frank
Eliot Spitzer's Constitutional Hang Up: Architect of New York's Patriot Act

 

 

 

 

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February 5, 2007

Bush and the Old Hands

Decider vs. Negotiator

By NEWTON GARVER

The report of the Iraq Study Group (ISG) in November of 2006 laid open a split in the Republican Party, as has been widely noted. James Baker is a negotiator and George W. Bush is, as he himself has insisted, a decider. The contrast speaks volumes. The two men have, of course, much in common: they are both Republicans, they both see the same other nations as friendly and the same ones as hostile, and the Negotiator is hardly indecisive, nor is the Decider loath to make deals. So what is the big fuss?

The difference has to do first with perception and then with style. That may sound at first superficial. But the morality of both everyday life and political life is, one might say, profoundly superficial. Or as Mies van der Rohe once put it, in a brilliant variation on a familiar adage, "God is in the details."


Defining the Difference

For the Decider the world is black and white, for the Negotiator it is shades of gray. For George Bush and his crowd, anyone who stands contrary to him or his policy is black. We have seen this in his remarks (or those of his staff) about people who have left his administration because of disagreements. In nearly every case we have an instance of denigration of the person's character or competence, or both. There are no honorable dissidents or defectors. When we expand our scope to the whole globe, the contrasts are even starker, the emblem of his manner of perception being the famous "axis of evil" remark in his first inaugural speech. The contrasts between black and white, once made, seem curiously independent of actions. So Hamas and Hezbullah remain black even when they participate in democratic elections, and no action whatever would convince the White House of Iran's worthiness to remain an Islamic state, whereas Israel stays white as a Jewish state even though killing hundreds (perhaps thousands) of innocent civilians.

For the Decider, the challenge is to increase the areas of white and reduce the areas of black. Removing Saddam was a good thing because it removed an area of black, and it remains a good thing because even though Iraq is in a kind of Limbo, not at the moment pure white, but no longer all black either. The rhetoric of the Decider is one of ideals, such as freedom and democracy, and the Decider sees his pursuit of these ideals as far loftier than the dirty gray pragmatism of the Negotiator.

The Negotiator sees shades of good and evil, and is comfortable with the world remaining various shades of gray. Power is always some shade of gray or other. The great advantage of political power is not that it brings either freedom or democracy, let alone justice, but stability. It is stability that lightens the darker shades of gray, and it is instability that sullies what might seem like promising ideals. Pure white is an illusion, as is pure black. The challenge is to discern where there are lighter shades of gray, and to enlarge them by increasing stability among those who have power. An important part of such discernment is recognition of who it is that actually has power - - and hence has the capability of entering into an agreement that promises stability.

It is entirely right to understand the contrast between the Negotiator and the Decider as one form of the contrast between pragmatism and idealism, as well as one of perception. So manners and style are a crucial aspect of the contrast.

With respect to style, the Negotiator works through apparent differences to a consensus on which all can agree. In the process he normally hides his own deepest fears and aspirations, so that in representing the group he becomes a spokesperson rather than a decision-maker. Baker did this brilliantly in hammering out a unanimous report from the ISG. The style of the Negotiator requires careful listening to other viewpoints and incorporating them - - perhaps not in their original formulation - - in the final negotiated agreement. The handbook on negotiation, Getting to Yes (Fisher, Ury, and Patton; Penguin 1991), lays stress on distinguishing between positions and interests, insisting that a serious negotiator always looks behind conflicting positions fo convergent interests. Such, indeed is the style of the report of the ISG. The report notes that it is in the interest of both Iran and Syria, as well as Turkey, that Iraq not erupt into such chaos that refugees flee into neighboring countries. This interest might well be convergent with US interests, however much current rhetoric suggests that the parties are mired in incompatible positions.

The style of the Decider is to dismiss and denigrate divergent positions rather to work through differences. This has been apparent since the first notes of tension and disagreement emerged from the Beltway, with the departure of the first Treasury Secretary, the denigration of various arms-control experts, and the exposure of Valerie Plame as a CIA agent following her husband's candid report on alleged uranium shipments from Niger to Iraq. There can be no such thing as honorable disagreement with the Decider. That is part of what is meant by Bush being the Decider: disagreement is betrayal, just because disagreement refuses to acknowledge the decisions the Decider has made. It is not a shade of gray but jet black. Therefore the Decider is undermined by negotiators as much as by dissidents.

This style is equally apparent in foreign policy, especially in those domains of foreign policy that are in the news. The nations of the world are generally either black or white. A flagrant example, at the time of acrimony over the invasion of Iraq, was the division of NATO into Old Europe (black) and New Europe (white), based simply on whether or not they supported the invasion. Israel is white, Iran, Syria, and North Korea are black, and Hezbullah and Hamas and very black. In Latin America Cuba and Venezuela are black, Bolivia, Nicaragua, and Ecuador and turning black, Colombia and Chile are white, while Mexico, Brazil and Argentina are in Limbo. Latin America has been severely neglected by Washington in recent years, as never before in the previous century, in that there have been no major economic or military moves in that region, Bush's early visit to Mexico proving to be mere show. There have indeed been significant decisions made in Latin America, but with the Decider's attention focussed elsewhere, the decisions are being made by others.


Domination vs. Prosperity

The aim of a negotiated agreement is enduring cooperation, which is incompatible with domination. There is of course a form of pseudo-cooperation, whereby what the stronger party means is obedience to the dominant power. That is what parents have in mind when they ask their young children to cooperate. In genuine cooperation, on the other hand, the parties begin with more balanced powers, at least in the sense that either can effectively nullify the proposed cooperation. In such a case domination is out of place, and therefore decision-making is shared. There can be no Decider where there is genuine cooperation.

It is a famous thesis of Hobbes, taken over by nearly all political philosophers, that cooperation will never work where there is no overarching dominating authority (the "sovereign") to which all the cooperating parties are submissive. The fruits of cooperation are stability and prosperity, and Hobbes claimed that in a state of nature (that is, where there is no sovereign authority), there is bound to be a "war of all against all", and "the life of man is solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short." That dismal thesis was brilliantly challenged several decades ago by Robert Axelrod in his book The Evolution of Cooperation (Basic Books 1984). The challenge was presented by means of game theory.

One basic distinction in game theory is that between zero-sum games and variable-sum games. In a zero-sum game the size of the pie is fixed in advance, and there can therefore never be a winner unless there is also a loser. That is, I cannot get a bigger slice of the pie unless you get a smaller one. In a variable-sum game, on the other hand, the total payoff is not determined in advance, so that there can be win-win outcomes, as we have learned to say. That basic distinction, about which there is no theoretical dispute or obscurity, allows us to restate the distinction between the Decider and the Negotiator. The Decider believes that political life consists always and only of zero-sum games, while the Negotiator believes that most of political life (he is not such an absolutist as the Decider) consists of variable-sum games. The Decider is with Hobbes.

Axelrod focussed on a variable-sum game called "The Prisoners' Dilemma" (PD). PD is a two-player game defined in game theory by the proportions in which various payoffs stand to one another. The payoffs that Axelrod used are that if both players are "mean" (try to dominate or "win"), each gets one point; If both are nice (try to cooperate), each gets three points; and if one Is mean and the other nice, the meanie gets five points and the nice guy nothing. In that simple form, the rational outcome seems a clear vindication of Hobbes, and it really makes no sense to be nice.

Axelrod, however, studied a variation called "The Iterated Prisoners' Dilemma" (IPD). In this variation, the players encounter each other over and over, and what counts is the total score in the end. Though neither version is a perfect model of life, IPD clearly corresponds to many life circumstances. How do you act towards people you expect to encounter over and over?

Axelrod could not figure out the answer to this question from his armchair, so he devised a tournament. He asked colleagues in game theory, policy studies, and politics to submit programmable strategies for an IPD tournament in which each strategy would play against each other, and also against itself, for 200 encounters, and the winner of the tournament would be the strategy that had accumulated the most points at the end of the tournament. Each strategy needed to specify precisely at every given move whether its current move would be mean or nice, based on a rule that could take account of some or all of the prior moves. Axelrod included a strategy he called RANDOM, that chose whether to mean or nice in a mathematically random succession. Altogether there were fourteen entries.

The winning strategy was submitted by Anatol Rapoport, himself a fascinating scholar, since he was a mathematician and pacifist who also wrote the introduction to the Penguin edition of On War by Karl von Clausewitz. Rapoport's strategy was the simplest of all those submitted: it started by being nice on the first move, and then on every subsequent move did whatever the other player had done on the previous move. A moment's reflection on the payoffs shows that this strategy can lose by five points (but never by more than five points) or can tie the other player, but can never get more points than the other player.

So we have the seeming paradox that the winner of the tournament never won any of the individual matches! That could never happen in a tournament consisting of zero-sum games, such as all the sporting tournaments of our culture. Nor in a chess tournament could a player with the simplest strategy ever win, since the opponent would win soon after figuring out the strategy. In the IPD tournament, however, Rapoport hoped that his opponents would figure out his strategy, since they would then realize that they could attain more points by cooperating than by overwhelming wins, or whatever.

Axelrod published an extensive analysis of the results of this tournament and announced a second round of his IPD tournament. There was a slight change in the rules, in that each match would end at some randomly selected number in the area of 200 encounters. The apparent paradox of the winner of the first round never winning even a single individual match led to a great increase in interest, and there were 62 entries for the second round, coming from six countries and representing eight academic disciplines. All sorts of people thought that must be a way to do better than a very simple strategy that never outscored any other strategy in one-on-one encounters. It made no sense to the experts that you could win tournaments without winning any individual matches.

They were wrong. Rapoport submitted the same strategy and won again. Overwhelmingly. And Axelrod then experimented with evolution, changing the population in each generation so that those most successful in the previous generation had a correspondingly greater representation in the next. Most of the meanies quickly became extinct, and the strength of Rapoport's strategy increased with each generation. The conclusion for evolutionary studies: There are certain circumstances, perhaps not too rare, in which nice guys do not finish last but rather they flourish and multiply. As Axelrod usefully puts it, Rapoport's strategy is not strong but it is robust. And it is robustness rather than strength that leads to long-term stability and prosperity.

Cooperation and long-term stable arrangements are generally the aim of negotiation, but a Negotiator is not necessarily a Cooperator. In diplomacy, a Negotiator normally combines a fairly fixed conception of "national interest" with a more flexible conception of prosperity and well-being as competing goals of the negotiation. Consequently IPD is not always a reliable model of real-world negotiations. But the Negotiator remains much closer than the Decider to the wry wisdom of Anatol Rapoport's winning IPD strategy.


The Poverty of Unilateralism

To be a Decider is to be a Unilateralist. The Bush administration has augmented this American tendency, exempting the US from the International Criminal Court and other international jurisdictions having to do with war crimes and unfair trade practices (such as our agricultural subsidies).

An instructive but little-known example of obstructionist unilateralism has been the Bush administration's stance on the 2001 UN Program of Action on small arms and light weapons (SALW), a segment of the UN's First Committee on Disarmament and International Security. Every year since 2001 three of our allies, Japan, Colombia, and South Africa, have introduced an omnibus resolution about illegal trade in SALW but have failed to find the consensus they desired. Finally in 2006 they gave up on consensus and put the measure to a vote - 172 in favor, no abstentions, and only the US opposed. A similar obstruction, not quite so flagrant, occurred with respect to a resolution pertaining to the Arms Trade Treaty, to set up a process for establishing common international standards for the import, export, and transfer of conventional arms. The vote on this resolution was 139 in favor, 24 abstentions, and one (the US) opposed. Would it be unreasonable to conclude that the US on principle will not cooperate on any issue in the First Committee, at least not if there is a hint of any impending obstacle to selling arms?

Such action puts us in the position of a meanie in Axelrod's IPD tournament, with the prospect progressive impoverishment. We already see signs of that process in the decline of the dollar and the rapid rise of US indebtedness to China. Fortunately the posture of the Bush administration is partially compensated by commercial cooperation on a global scale, and it may therefore take a long time of the negative effects of going it alone to take effect.

Stability can accompany the rule of a Decider only if the Decider is sovereign, as Hobbes envisioned. If the Decider is not sovereign - that is, if there are other persons or states that make effective decisions altogether independent of the Decider - then strife and conflict concerning who is dominant and who is independent is bound to lead to instability. Such instability exists in the Middle East and looms in the rest of Asia. For 2007 we can look forward to continuing prosperous relations with China and India and Korea and Japan, in spite of their independence, but also to continuing costly and abrasive relations with Iran and Iraq.

Cooperation is pragmatic, not moral. Cooperation is generally preferable to war, but there are limits to its merits. One genuine drawback to cooperation is uncertainty about the morality or justice of cooperative arrangements. It is therefore reasonable that there be moral strings attached to cooperation, something that is left entirely out of the picture presented in Axelrod's study. When we take matters of justice and morality into account, we again see not only the difference between a Negotiator and a Cooperator but also the sharp contrast between a Decider and a Negotiator.

Cooperation is often the door to corruption - you scratch my back and I'll scratch yours. Trade agreements between large corporations and emerging states have often resulted in huge bribes to third-world officials as well as to flagrant neglect of basic working standards and environmental concerns. Collegial cooperation among corporate executives in the US has led executive pay to soar from 20 times a worker's pay to 400 times a worker's pay, in just a couple of decades. Such cooperation is only partial, peasants and workers being left out, and a seasoned Negotiator, having read Fisher and Ury, will realize an inherent instability in such partial cooperation. That is a good part of the reason that the ISG strongly recommends serious talks with Iran and Syria. But confronting considerations of morality and justice is not simple or easy.

Two reasons why morality and justice present genuinely tough problems are, first, that claims of justice or morality are often fraudulent masks for power grabs, and, second, that they may conflict even when they are based on sound principles.

The obstacles presented by considerations of morality and justice again show the contrast between the Decider and the Negotiator. The Decider, to preserve his own status as Decider, has no recourse but to articulate and insist on his own conception of morality and justice, which quicky leads to impasse. The Negotiator proceeds by listening to the other party and then trying to separate out positions from interests. There is no guarantee for success through negotiation, but there is a richer array of possibilities.

When the ISG presented its report, President Bush slapped down the Negotiator, almost rudely, certainly with all the arrogance that normally accompanies unilateral action. His 2007 State of the Union address may have lacked the vigor and bluster of the Decider's earlier pronouncements, but he did not back away either from his role as Decider or from any of his unilateral decisions. We can hardly expect that he will be more accommodating toward Nancy Pelosi than toward James Baker. Even if the Peace Fairy were to resolve matters in Iraq tomorrow, the pattern would remain, and there are many issues to resolve before we sleep. It is likely, therefore, that we can look forward to another year of impoverishment.

Newton Garver is SUNY Distinguished Service Professor Emeritus at University at Buffalo. Eleven of his essays on war, power, ethics, truth and justice in the US during the Bush years, and the recent struggle for human rights and political decency in Bolivia, were recently published in Limits of Power: Some Friendly Reminders.



 

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