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CounterPunch
February
25, 2003
Civilian Casualties in the War
on Iraq
Killing with
Sanctions, Then Bombs
by AHMAD FARUQUI
The Bush administration has argued that if Saddam
Hussein refuses to disarm, it will go in and disarm him with
or without a second UN Security Council resolution. The war is
portrayed as a just and necessary war that would improve America's
national security by preventing future 9/11 type attacks, liberate
the Iraqi people from the yoke of an evil dictator, and bring
democracy to the Arab world. However infeasible these might be,
these are all noble ends. But do the means justify the ends?
It has been estimated that the war would
cost the American taxpayer about $100-200 billion at a time when
budget and trade deficits are running at all time highs. Given
the risks in any military operation, the war would also result
in several hundred American casualties, even if Saddam does not
resort to using biological or chemical weapons. About 200 Americans
were killed during the Gulf War of 1991, but according to retired
Colonel David Hackworth, the Gulf War syndrome has caused more
than 200,000 casualties, including 10,000 dead.
However, even bigger costs would be imposed
on the people of Iraq. The Bush administration is mute about
these costs. The Gulf War, which had a comparatively simple objective
of ejecting Saddam's forces from Kuwait, resulted in more than
200,000 Iraqi deaths. Three-quarters of those killed were civilians.
This time the US military will need to go in all the way into
Baghdad, in order to effect regime change. Urban combat is likely
to take place. Thus, the number of civilian Iraqi casualties
will probably exceed those caused by the Gulf War.
The UN secretary general, Kofi Anan,
expects the war will displace about two million Iraqis, create
almost a million refugees and endanger the lives of 30% of Iraqi
children under the age of five. It may leave as many as 10 million
Iraqis dependent on food assistance from the outside. This would
represent a serious problem for any country, but is likely to
be catastrophic for a country like Iraq that has been subject
to economic sanctions for the past 12 years.
These sanctions have not had any adverse
impact on Saddam Hussein and his coterie, but they have taken
a toll on the civilian population of Iraq. According to UNICEF,
the United Nations Children Fund, the sanctions have created
such a harsh resource-constrained and unhygienic environment
in Iraq that kills 5,000 children under the age of five every
month. The Economist magazine comments, "Even if the truth
is half that number, it would still mean that about 360,000 children
had died as a result of 12 years of sanctions."
Beyond triggering a massive humanitarian
crisis, the war would destabilize the entire Middle East. There
is rising anti-Americanism in the region, flowing from America's
continued support to General Sharon's harsh occupation of the
West Bank and Gaza. With the exception of Kuwait and Qatar, none
of Iraq's neighbors support an invasion of Iraq. Even in Turkey,
public opinion is strongly opposed to the war.
This war would provide an outstanding
recruitment opportunity for Osama bin Laden, and defeat the very
purposes for which it is about to be fought. Douglas Hurd, who
was the British foreign secretary during the Gulf War, noted
recently in the RUSI Journal, "we may win the war in six
days and lose it in six months."
Given the significant humanitarian and
political costs of this war, should it be waged in the first
place? This is a case where the ends do not justify the means.
Other ways have to be found to disarm Saddam Hussein. As most
of the countries in the world have argued, the inspectors should
be given sufficient time and resources to accomplish their task.
If they find that Iraq is in non-compliance with UN resolutions,
the blame should be placed on Saddam Hussein. American has the
world's best-equipped and trained special operations forces.
They should be entrusted with the job of capturing Saddam and
bringing him to justice, whether in an American court or in the
International Court of Justice. The Iraqi people have suffered
enough during the past quarter century for the sins of their
leader. There is no reason to add to their woes by raining cruise
missiles and bombs on them.
Ahmad Faruqui,
an economist, is a fellow with the American Institute of International
Studies and the author of Rethinking
the National Security of Pakistan. He can be reached
at faruqui@pacbell.net
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