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Exclusive to CounterPunch Newsletter Subscribers!

PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS ON HOW THE 'FREE TRADE' CASE
FOR OFFSHORING AMERICA'S JOBS HAS COME UNGLUED

Roberts on the sensational exposure of the faked "gains" and phantom stats of the free traders. Who was America's most anti-imperialist president? Try Grover Cleveland! JoAnn Wypijewski on the unlikely hero of Hawai'i's restoration movement. Alexander Cockburn reports on evangelical Christians in crisis amid fresh onslaughts by forces of darkness. The Warbler's Parable: Rosa Miriam Elizalde on the black-masked visitors to Cuba defying the US economic blockade.

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"Imperial Crusades: a Diary of Three Wars" by Cockburn and St. Clair

CounterPunch Jazz and Blues: Danny Cassidy in the Bay Area; David Vest in Portland

Today's Stories

June 30 / July 1, 2007

Alan Farago
Fakery, Inflation and the Housing Market

Robert Fisk
Abu Henry and the Mysterious Silence

Judith Siers-Poisson
The Politics and PR of Cervical Cancer

June 29, 2007

St. Clair / Frank
Toward a New Environmental Movement

Brian Cloughley
Losing the War in Afghanistan: One Civilian Massacre at a Time

Patrick Cockburn
End the Occupation: an Open Letter to Gordon Brown

Gilad Atzmon
The Peace Envoy: Tony Blair on Work Release

Dave Lindorff
Subpoenas, Executive Privilege and Liberal Pipedreams

Jennifer Matsui /
Carl Kandutsch

Electric Larryland

Kevin Zeese
A Different Kind of Peace Candidate

Daniel Klimek
Fasting for Justice at DePaul

David Michael Green
The Founding Fathers Never Met Dick Cheney

John Chuckman
The London Car Bomb

Website of the Day
BAM!

 

June 28, 2007

Bill Quigley
How to Destroy an African American City in 33 Steps

Vijay Prashad
Once More on the New York Times

Margaret Kimberley
The Whitening of Marianne Pearl: When White Actors Play Black Characters

Winslow T. Wheeler
House of Pork: Changing Lightbulbs in the Democrats' Bordello

Philip Rizk
The Failing of Gaza

D. K. Wilson
The Black Villains Club

Bill Williams
Strange Calculus at DePaul

Mahmoud El-Yousseph
The Deportation of Yardlin Jimenez

Richard Rhames
The Liberation of Paris

Paul Krassner
Bong Hits for Repression: the Giant Sucking Sound of the Supreme Court

Website of the Day
Free Lightnin' Hopkins

 


June 27, 2007

Marjorie Cohn
Targeting Dissent: FBI Spying on the National Lawyers Guild

Dr. Susan Rosenthal, MD
Sick and Sicker: Two Models of Health Care Rationing

Alan Farago
Bush and the Everglades: Rebranding Failure as Success

Carla Blank
"America, the Beautiful": the Queen, Jamestown and the Eye of the Beholder

Matthew Abraham
The Smearing of Robert Trivers, Dershowitz-Style

Sunsara Taylor
The Deadly Consequences of Compromise: Abortion Rights Under Assault, Where's the Women's Movement?

Russell D. Hoffman
16 Dirty Secrets About Nuclear Power

Robert Weissman
Blackstone and Capital's Grand Scam

Sen. Russ Feingold
Secrecy and the Federal Death Penalty

Paul Buchheit
The Footprints of Democracies

Website of the Day
Anarchy for the USA: an Interview with Josh Wolf

 

June 26, 2007

Jonathan Cook
Divide and Rule, Israeli-Style

Ralph Nader
Sicko and the Politics of Health Care

Corporate Crime Reporter
Which Side Are You On, Michael Moore?

Ron Jacobs
Are the Neocons Really Going?

Martha Rosenberg
Mad Cow in God's Country

John Chuckman
China's New Weapons

Denny Haldeman
Ethanolics Anonymous

Anthony DiMaggio
Free Speech Hypocrisy at the Supreme Court

Stephen Fleischman
The Tightrope Economy

William S. Lind
Legitimacy, Toujours Legitimacy

Website of the Day
The CIA's Family Jewels

 


June 25, 2007

Paul Craig Roberts
Goodbye to the City on the Hill

Jennifer Loewenstein
The Triumph of US / Israeli Policy in Palestine

Bob Anderson
The Grooming of Bill Richardson: New Mexico's Nuclear Governor

Robert Pollin
The Realities of Microlending

Patrick Cockburn
Chemical Ali Faces the Hangman: the Life and Crimes of al-Majid

Eva Liddell
Why They Want to Fire Ward Churchill

Dan Bacher
Democrats and the School of the Americas: 42 House Democrats Back Torture Academy

Larry Atkins
The Case of the Judge and the $54 Million Pair of Pants: an Embarrassment, Not an Argument for Tort Reform

Mark Brenner
SEIU Ends Nursing Home Partnership

James Rothenberg
Hillary Does Iraq

Website of the Day
"A Long Train of Abuses"

June 23 / 24, 2007

Alexander Cockburn
Zyklon B on the US Border

Jeff Taylor
The Foreign Policy of Barack Obama

Oren Ben-Dor
Israeli Apartheid is the Core of the Crisis in Gaza

Gary Leupp
In Defense of Academic Freedom: the Ward Churchill Case

Robert Fisk
The Bumbling Envoy

David Rosen
The Hidden Cost of War: Genital Injuries, Prosthetic Devices and the War on Terror

Russell Mokhiber
Ins and Outs for 2008: Up with Spoilers!

Alison Weir
USA Today and the USS Liberty

Robert Fantina
The Floundering Congress

D. K. Wilson
Of Gangstas and Spearchuckers, Sex and Zulus

Nicole Colson
Litigating Gitmo

Stephen Soldz, Steven Reisner and Brad Olson
Torture, Psychologists and Colonel James

Dave Lindorff
Exodus of the Puppets: Bush's Incredible Shrinking Coalition

Benjamin Dangl
Cerámica de Cuyo: a Profile of Worker Control in Argentina

Michael Dickinson
The Catholicization of Tony

Poets' Basement
Davies, Engel, Gerard and Orloski

Website of the Weekend
Incarcerex: a Drug War Video

 

June 22, 2007

Andy Worthington
A Tunisian in Gitmo: the Story of Prisoner 660

Sherwood Ross
Corporate America's Deadliest Secret: the Big Profits in Biowarfare Research

Eliana Monteforte
The Torture Academy

Robert Weissman
Things Can Be Different

Richard Rhames
Farmer Preservation

Christopher Brauchli
Bush and the Uighurs: an Encounter in Albania

Ramzy Baroud
Chronicle of a Chaos Foretold

Ehud Krinis, David Shulman and Neve Gordon
Facing an Imminent Threat of Expulsion: Palestinians in S. Hebron Hills Need Your Help!

David Michael Green
If Reid Were Rove

Kathryn Webber
Boycotting DePaul

Website of the Day
Stop Me Before I Vote Again!

 

June 21, 2007

Peter Linebaugh
The Day of the Rope

Natsu Saito
The Regents and Ward Churchill: Now is the Time to Speak Out

Ron Jacobs
The Intimidation of a Vet

Saree Makdisi
The West Chooses Fatah, But Palestinians Don't

John Stauber
Blessed Unrest: an Interview with Paul Hawken

Scott Liebertz
Fox News and Venezuela: an Analysis of How the Network Deliberately Misinforms Its Viewers

Tom Clifford
The Ghost Prisoners

Robert Jensen
The Last Sunday?

Michael J. Smith
Who Among Us Will Step Up to Destroy the Democratic Party?

Jeb Sprague
Pain at the Pump in Haiti

Website of the Day
Dion: Hey Paris


June 20, 2007

Omar Barghouti
A Secular-Democratic State Solution

Andy Worthington
Repatriated to Torture

Margaret Kimberley
Supreme Injustices: the Bush Court

Robert Weissman
Sicko, Part One: the Human Tragedy

Russell D. Hoffman
Time to Choose: Meltdowns or Solar Power?

Rannie Amiri
Mideast Alight

Stephen Lendman
The New York Times vs. Hugo Chavez

Dave Lindorff
Democratic Disconnect

David Swanson
Booing Hillary: Platitudes from the Drone Machine

Anne Dachel
Autism & Vaccines: Why are They Afraid to Look?

Website of the Day
Revolution By the Book

 

June 19, 2007

Ralph Nader
Hillary's Stock and Trade: the NAFTA Two-Step

Dr. Shepherd Bliss
Torture's Long Reach

Bill and Kathleen Christison
Demostrating Against the Catholic Church in Santa Fe

Jeff Leys
Swarming Congress: Building a Resistance to the 2008 Iraq War Supplemental Funding Bill

Dave Zirin
The Unforgiven: Barry Bonds and Jack Johnson

Chris Floyd
Hitchens Takes a Roll in the Hay

Ben Terrall
Iraq Union Leaders Speak Out Against the Occupation

Anthony Papa
Veronica's Story: a Dying Wish to Governor Spitzer

VIPS
Countering Terrorism: How Not to Do It

Linda Flores
Criminalizing the Classroom

Website of the Day
Sign On to the Iraq Moratorium


June 18, 2007

John Ross
The Annexation of Mexico

Paul Craig Roberts
The Reign of the Tyrants is at Hand

Martha Rosenberg
Let Cheney at Him: Richardson the Oryx Hunter

Norman Solomon
War at the Remote

Don Santina
Memo to the Queen: Bobby Sands Died for Your Sins

Isabella Kenfield
Landless Rural Workers Confront Lula

James Brooks
America's Guilty Silence

Eva Liddell
Planning to Lose: Democratic Stratagems

Sam Husseini
Clinton Health Care Scam Revisited

Akiva Eldar
Ariel Sharon's Dream

Website of the Day
Frank Zappa: the Cop Interview

 


June 16 / 17, 2007

Alexander Cockburn
The Psychopathology of Shrinks

John Halle
Finkelstein and "The Progressive"

Robert Fisk
Welcome to "Palestine"

Andy Worthington
Return to Torture?

Uri Avnery
The Gaza Cage

Fred Gardner
Paris Hilton's Punishment: a False Parable

Saul Landau
Our Gang of Thugs: The 1970s as a Context for Terrorist Violence

P. Sainath
Heaven Can Wait: Creditors and the Widows of Vidharbha

Missy Comley Beattie
Calling Evil Its Name

Alan Gregory
When ADM Comes to Town: Killer Tax Breaks for Wildlife Destruction

Walter Brasch
Bush and the Philosophy of Swiss Cheese

Website of the Weekend
Obama Girl

 

June 15, 2007

Alan Farago
View from the Construction Crane: Sex, Taxes and Real Estate Scams in Miami

Andy Worthington
The Ordeal of Ali al--Marri

Michael Simmons
Terrorizing Artists in the USA

Franklin Lamb
Blowback Across Lebanon: The Failed Sunni Army Solution

Gary Leupp
The Day After We Attack Iran

John Ross
Ballot Burning Time in Ol' Mexico

Website of the Day
The American Rationalist

 

June 14, 2007

Michael Donnelly
Charred SUVs and the End of Citizen Eco--Activism

Faisal Kutty
Scare Canada: The No--Fly List's False Sense of Security

Harry Browne
Ireland's Green Party Sells Out

Charles Jonkel
From the Arctic to Yellowstone: Bears in a World of Indifference

Steven Higgs
Murder in a Small Town: "Gay Panic" in Indiana?

Bruce Dixon
Black Power Through Low Power Radio

Bruce K. Gagnon
What Do We Do Now? A 10--Step Plan for Antiwar Activists

Website of the Day
Finkelgate

June 13, 2007

Glen Ford
Obama's Siren Song

Marjorie Cohn
Repression in Oaxaca

Bill Christison
A Grave Injustice at DePaul University

Charles Jonkel
Bears in a World of Indifference

Silvia Cattori
"I Was Not Prepared for the Horrors I Saw": an Interview with Hedy Epstein

Richard Gott
Racism and TV in Venezuela

Firmin DeBrabander
How the Neocons Misread Machiavelli

William S. Lind
The Perfect (Sine) Wave: Bombing Railroad Stations in Iraq

Keith Rosenthal
Workers Score a Victory at Harvard

Website of the Day
GOP and Monty Python Explain: "Enhanced Interrogation Techniques"

June 12, 2007

Jeffrey St. Clair
How to Sell a War

Paul Craig Roberts
The Neocon Threat to American Freedom

P. Sainath
India's Plutocrats and the Press

Ralph Nader
The Biggest Scam in the World

Omar Waraich
A Black Day for Pakistan's Press

Dave Lindorff
Things Your Media Momma Didn't Tell You

Harvey Wasserman
Confessions of an Anti-Nuke Jerk

Malini Johar Schueller
It Takes a Bomb

Ramzy Baroud
War Foretold: Mark Twain and the Sins of Empire

Website of the Day
Palestinian Chronicle Needs Our Help!

 

June 11, 2007

Patrick Cockburn
The War on Journalists

Paul Craig Roberts
Losing the Economy to Mythology

Uri Avnery
40 Bad Years: the Rot of Occupation

Norman Solomon
The Silence of the Bombs

Eva Liddell
Paris Hilton Doesn't Do Dishes: How Barbie Stood Up to Allen Ginsberg

Rannie Amiri
Groundhog Day in Pakistan

Rachel Voss
Poetry and Politics in Nassau County

Christopher Brauchli
A Wild West Tale, Starring Rev. Dobson and Bill O'Reilly

D. K. Wilson
Untangling Michael Vick from the Dogs

Website of the Day
Paris, Mixed Up


June 9 / 10, 2007

Alexander Cockburn
Dissidents Against Dogma

George Ciccariello-Maher
Behind Venezuela's "Student Rebellion": Who's Pulling the Strings?

Saul Landau
An Interview with Ricardo Alarcon, Vice President of Cuba

Robert Fisk
Believe It or Not in the Middle East

Brian Cloughley
Troop Support: Deceptions and Insipid Sentiments

Ron Jacobs
Condoleezza Rice Names the System

Ward Boston
Searching for the Truth About the USS Liberty

Conn Hallinan
Dark Plots in Byzantine Beirut

Leonard Peltier
The Ongoing War on Native American Religious Practices

Lawrence Davidson
Israel's New Anti-Boycott Task Force

John Ross
Mass Nude-In Complicates Church-State Scuffling in Mexico

Kate Allan
Some People Think the Internet is a Bad Thing

Fred Gardner
Ignorance Marches On

Stephen Fleischman
Little Boy, Fat Man and Iran

Monica Benderman
Reading Tom Paine in a Time of Crisis

Geoff Bailey
A Real Oil Conspiracy: Gouged at the Pump

Missy Beattie
Faith and War

Patrick Dyer
A Democrat Revs Up Ohio's Death Machine

Tim Lengerich
Dispelling the Cowboy Myth: an Interview with George Wuerthner

James Irani
and David Rahni

Perspectives on the Arrests of Iran-Americans in Tehran

Gary Leupp
The Unfair Treatment of Paris Hilton

Michael Tillery
The Heart of a Sportswriter: an Interview with David Aldridge

Michael Simmons
Beating Off the Squares: the Hipness of Anton Rosenberg

Poets' Basement
Laymon, Davies and Ford

Website of the Weekend
This is Sea Shepherd!

 

June 8, 2007

Serge Halimi
What Sarkozy Learned About Politics from the US

Patrick Cockburn
The Turkish Incursion

Jeffrey St. Clair
Israel's Attack on the USS Liberty, Revisited

 

Paul Craig Roberts
The Secret War

William Blum
What If NBC Cheered on a Military Coup Against Bush?

Joshua Frank
Swing-State Strategy: Looking for a Spoiler

Lance Selfa
How the Six Day War Changed the Middle East

Dave Lindorff
A "Criminal Conspiracy" in the White House

Lawrence Ferlinghetti
The Summer of Love: Flashbacks of a Human Be-In

Website of the Day
Robert Pollin: "Making the Federal Minimum Wage a Living Wage"


June 7, 2007

Marjorie Cohn
The Prison is the War Crime

Soldz, Reisner and Olson:
A Q & A on Psychologists and Torture

Soldz, Reisner
and Olson, et al:
An Open Letter to Sharon Brehm, President of the American Psychological Association

Paul Craig Roberts
Losing Iraq, Nuking Iran

Bill Quigley
"How Long Must We Support a Mistake?"

Silvia Cattori
Sailing to Gaza

Carl G. Estabrook
What the June Bug Is: Politics in the Dismal Season

Ellen Taylor
Free the Tweakers!: The Good News About Meth

Corporate Crime Reporter
BAE Systems, Prince Bandar and the $2 Billion Account at the Riggs Bank

Brenda Norrell
Torture Training at Ft. Huachuca: Two Priests Face Prison for Exposing Torture in Arizona

D. K. Wilson
What Gary Sheffield Really Said

Kevin Zeese
Iraq Occupation Coming to a Head Over Oil

Website of the Day
How the Press Expired


June 6, 2007

Alain Gresh
Countdown to War on Iran

Gary Leupp
Poddy's Crazy Prayer: Bomb Iran, For Israel and America!

Steven Sherman
The Perils of Humanitarian Intervention

Bruce Dixon
Is Bill Gates Trying to Hijack Africa's Food Supply?

Corporate Crime Reporter
The Professor and the Nukes

Brian M. Downing
The Iraq War and Presidential Politics

Ron Jacobs
Luv n' Hate: a Different Take on the Summer of Love

George Bisharat
The Mirage of the Two State Solution

Nicole Colson
Over to You, Dante: Falwell's Ministry of Hate

Bruce K. Gagnon
From Italy to Guam: A Global Peace Movement is Taking Shape

Website of the Day
How the Democrats Should Treat Bush

 

June 5, 2007

Michael Neumann
Canada in Afghanistan

Jonathan Cook
The Shin Bet and the Persecution of Azmi Bishara

David Vest
The Democrats' War

Robert Fantina
America's Cuba Policy

Hoffman, Parsneau and Chowdhury
CounterTerrorism as International Healthcare

John V. Walsh
Shaming the Official Antiwar Movement

Richard Cretan
Yellow Dog: The Strange Love of Martin Amis and Tony Blair

Adam Engel
Days of Dread: an American Tale

William S. Lind
The News from Anbar: Has Al Qaeda Over-Reached?

Myles Hoenig
Free the Oaks! Cut Down Those Yellow Ribbons!

Jim Minick
Lead-Foot Nation

Website of the Day
Punk Rock Soap Opera


June 4, 2007

Nizar Latif
An Interview with Moqtada al-Sadr

Diana Johnstone
Sarko and the Ghosts of May, 1968

Gregory Wilpert
RCTV and Freedom of Speech in Venezuela

Paul Watson
The Anchorage Whale Killing Bureaucrats Summit

Susan Rosenthal, MD
How Cindy Sheehan Unmasked the Democrats

Richard Ward
The Right of Return to New Orleans

Eva Liddell
Don't Support the Troops

Zahi Khouri
Four Decades of Occupation

Evelyn Pringle
The FDA, GlaxoSmithKline and the Avandia Disaster

China Hand
About Those North Korean Benjamin Franklins ...

Karyn Strickler
George W. Bush: a "Ficeist" Leader

Website of the Day
The Guantanamo Files

 

June 2 / 3, 2007

Alexander Cockburn
The Last of the Texas Outsiders

Marc Levy
Iraq Dead Ahead: a Brief Military History and Civilian Guide to Arlington National Cemetery

Martin Smith
Camilo Mejía's War: From Foot Soldier for Empire to Rebel for Peace

Diana Johnstone
Great Power Meddling in Kosovo

John Ross
The Oaxaca Volcano Stews

Uri Avnery
On Generals and Admirals

Sunsara Taylor
This is Not a Story About Cindy Sheehan

Richard Neville
Were the Hippies Right?

P. Sainath
The Farm Crisis and 100,000 Indian Widows

Missy Comley Beattie
Let's Roar

Nisrine Abiad
and Victor Kattan
The Hariri Tribunal: a Fait Accompli?

Rannie Amiri
Lebanon, Bush and the Three Stooges

Margot Pepper
Deconstructing "Return to Sender"

Eric Stewart
Censorship and Cop Brutality in the New Bison Wars

Ralph Nader
The Halberstam Camp

Dan Bacher
A Victory for the Fish

Shaun Harkin
and Sandy Boyer
Irish War Protesters on Trial

Richard Rhames
Selling Five Acres in Crawford

Frederick Hudson
The Rediscovery of Ella Fitzgerald

Poets' Basement
Lindorff, Landau and Buknatski

Website of the Weekend
Gimme Shelter


June 1, 2007

Dave Marsh
The FBI and the Godfather (of Soul): James Brown's FBI Files

Saul Landau
Return to Cuba: 47 Years Later in Havana

David Phinney
How the Baghdad Embassy Was Built: Forced Labor and Worker Abuse

Robert Jensen
The Bigot and the Boycott

Stanley Heller
Arrest Robert McNamara

Yifat Susskind
Indigenous Women Fight Back

Robert Weissman
Corporate Power Since 1980

Paul Buchheit
Africa and Its Discontents

William S. Lind
The Folly of Maximalist Objectives

Sherwood Ross
78,000 Iraqis Have Been Killed by Coalition Airstrikes

Stephen Lendman
Terrorism Defined

Website of the Day
Desert Autonomous Zone


May 31, 2007

Robert Bryce
The Language Barrier

Patrick Cockburn
Killing with Impunity: Iraq's Militias Under the Surge

Gary Leupp
Appropriate Disillusionment: the Despair of Cindy Sheehan and Andrew Bacevich

Kathy Kelly
Being Hope

Marjorie Cohn
The Unitary King George

Chris Kutalik
and Tiffany Ten Eyck

Fallout from the Sale of Chrysler: Jobs, Health Care, Pensions, All in Jeopardy

Corporate Crime Reporter
Zheng Xiaoyu Meet Lester Crawford

Dave Lindorff
Our Monica: a Hero of the Constitution

Website of the Day
Know Your Rights!

 

May 30, 2007

James Ridgeway
The Bi-Partisan Con on Synthetic Fuels

Franklin Lamb
Lebanon and the Planned US Airbase at Kaleiaat

Terrence E. Paupp
Withdrawal Symptoms

Uri Avnery
To the Shores of Tripoli

Alan Maass
and Jeffrey St. Clair
The Green Masquerade: Corporate America's Latest Counter-Attack

Rock and Rap Confidential
Watching the Detectives: the Political Censorship of Hip Hop

Ralph Nader
Taming the Giant Corporation

Nirmal Ghosh
China, CITES and the Fate of the Tiger

Jean Daniels
Dealing Democrats: Folding to Mr. 28%

Tom Barry
Meet Robert Zoellick: Bush's Pick to Head World Bank

Website of the Day
Petuuche Gilbert on the Rights of Indigenous People


May 29, 2007

Stephen Soldz
Shrinks and the SERE Technique at Guantanamo

Eliza Ernshire
Refugees Forever: Inside Bedawi Camp

Ron Jacobs
The Exit of Cindy Sheehan

Dave Lindorff
Whatever Happened to Signing Statements?

Evelyn Pringle
What Qualifies Bush to Lead Iraq War

Mike Whitney
Bush's New Middle East

David Swanson
How We Got Here: The Democrats and the Antiwar Movement

John Holt
Gating Montana, Part Two: the Feedback Loop

Cynthia McKinney
Dreaming of a True Memorial Day

Martha Rosenberg
Mad Cows, Mad Pigs and the Horse Slaughter Lobby

Website of the Day
The Ruminant


May 28, 2007

Bill Quigley
Katrina Activists: "Less Meeting, More Fighting"

Col. Dan Smith
The Paranoid and the Dead

Cindy Sheehan
Why I Am Leaving the Democratic Party

Dr. Susan Block
Dr. Laura's Little Monster

Jeeni Criscenzo
What I Learned About Being a Dickhead

Douglas Valentine
Memorial Day: a Poem

Website of the Day
Peace TV

 

 

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Weekend Edition
June 30 / July 1, 2007

Up the Down Staircase

Fakery, Inflation and the Housing Market

By ALAN FARAGO

The British sitcom, "Upstairs Downstairs" was a comedy of manners, of the rich and their servants, which is come to think of it, how the Federal Reserve and Wall Street's stylized dialogue on inflation will appear to historians, in retrospect.

Over the past decade we've had Wall Street wagging its tail to the Fed's "growth recession", "low" inflation, we've had "worries about higher inflation". Meanwhile, Americans in the vast majority are noticeably poorer.

It is not just the pocket book: it is also quality of life. The growth economy based on suburban sprawl--now flat on its face--has been a nation killer, sold like tobacco or sugar as ëwhat the market wants'.

But, always, the bottom line is the pocketbook. And there, the incredibly narrow bandwidth on government propaganda on inflation, and the timidity of most economists, Americans for the most part have meekly bought into the rosy scenarios.

Americans on fixed incomes, though, may wonder indeed if they have been inflicted with an unreported kind of disease--because inflation to them has been real and rampant.

"Thanks to 20 years of inflation, $1 million today has just 54% of the purchasing power of $1 million in 1987." (from The Wall Street Journal, Jonathan Clements, June 27, 2007)

Bingo.

Countless Americans responded to the pressure of inflation, emptied of meaning and relevance by government statistics, by investing far more in housing than historical precedent or reason would prudently allocate.

When a significant percentage of the nation's homeowners are investing 40 to 50 percent of disposable income on housing, and home values have fallen 30 percent off purchase prices (as they are, in the nation's most overheated areas), who needs an exogenous shock to threaten the economy?

Until 2005, real and unreported inflation was matched by consumers of mortgages in housing, matching inflation with inflation, sucking up many purchasers of subprime mortgages, but also, hard working middle and upper middle class.

As paper value of individual investments in housing went up, up, up, the real value of mortgages packaged and sliced into financial derivatives disappeared into pension funds, insurance pools, and hedge funds providing leverage for even more speculative investments.

Today there is a slow motion earthquake trembling through markets for financial derivatives, whose cumulative float is approximately ten times the value of stocks traded on public exchanges in the US.

It doesn't matter whose liquidity is keeping US stock markets uplifted or high: it is an entirely different scene down in the boiler rooms where government economists and statisticians and Fed board members are keeping the engines running: the denial is remarkable.

The picture is similar to the one painted by Nicolas Kristof in his editorial on the victims of climate change, in the New York Times yesterday.

Kristof, who writes frequently on the planet's most destitute--not the environment--reports that tens of millions of Africans and Asians are already on the march because of global warming that has wrecked substinence farming.

Think of American buyers of subprime mortgages who are now in default as the homeowner equivalent of climate change victims.

Kristof makes the mistake, in his editorial, of suggesting that wealthier nations like those in the industrial West can withstand the impacts of climate change.

To extend the metaphor, as financial markets are doing, mortgage holders with better credit, ie. the middle class and upper middle class, are not going to be sucked into the same problems afflicting subprime borrowers.

But there is no evidence whatsoever that the United States is insulated from the impacts of climate change, any more than purchasers of A rated mortgage credit are insulated from the troubles afflicting subprime buyers.

It is just taking a little longer. It is just a matter of time before blue-chip mortgage holders find themselves going up, the down staircase.

Noriel Roubini puts meat to these bones. In his June 27th blog, Roubini wrote:

"The fallout of this CDO mess is likely to end up into $100 billion plus of losses for banks, financial institutions, hedge funds and investors once these CDOs and subprime mortgage backed securities are marked-to-market rather than being marked-to-a-delusional - misrated-model. Thus, the Bear disaster is only the tip of the iceberg of a much bigger financial mess that will unravel in the next few months: the pile of rising subprime and nearprime delinquencies will take a toll on the toxic waste of mortgage backed securities that a rating "voodoo magic" pretended to turn below-junk securities into A-rated ones. "

No wonder that all these lousy news about housing and gasoline prices sky high have depressed the US consumer with consumer confidence now significantly down. And no wonder that the latest news from retail sales are also lousy. As reported by the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS in the last two reporting week same store chain store sales have been down (-0.7% in the last week) while the year-over-year growth rate of such sales is now down to 1.7% (i.e. falling in real terms relative to a year ago). Add to that a 2.8% fall in durable goods orders for May and a survey of major CFOs suggesting that they are planning to cut capex spending and accumulate less inventories.

" ... subprime delinquencies rising and the credit crunch in the subprime market getting worse. The delinquency rate for subprime mortgages increased to 13.8% in Q1, according to the MBA, up from the already high 11.5% a year before....near-prime delinquencies are rising sharply: late payments of at least 90 days and defaults on 2006 mortgages have increased to 4.21 percent, up from 1.59 percent for 2005 mortgages and 0.81 percent for 2004 mortgages, as reported by S&P. So the subprime carnage is now spreading to near prime mortgages."

So far, the mainstream media is meekly parroting government statistics and tracking the paw prints of big financial houses, like Bear Stearns, stuck in the tar pits of the subprime mortgage mess.

And it is interesting what is happening on the ground, too, in places like Florida where reams of ink have been devoted to the costs afflicting homeowners from insurance and property taxes--including a much trumpeted special legislative session in Tallahassee to deal with the crises--when suddenly, as though out of the blue, yesterday's news is that tax receipts state-wide are anticipated to fall at least $1 billion.

The building and construction lobby has been flailing at the promise of tax cuts, as though tax cuts could revive the sharp declines in housing markets. Well, no: not if Florida suddenly finds itself a billion short in tax revenues toward a budget that has already been paired to the bone.

In Miami, you would think there would be some public discussion, as the builders lobby comes calling for new zoning and building permits to plow more suburban sprawl and more condo towers.

But there is not a single elected official (OK, maybe one or two) who will raise the question, why have local legislatures turned into rubber stamps for ill-advised development?

Conceivably, it will take a financial meltdown to knock some reason in their heads: that would be just about the same as Congress and the White House waiting until sea level rise, or, the nation's breadbasket burns up in extreme summer heat before mandates to compel industries to sharply reduce carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas emissions.

Everyone wants things to be the way they used to be, just a few years ago, when the formula for riches and political power was simply twinned by campaign contributions wrapped around votes for residential zoning.

In a Florida Association of Realtors press release, on June 25th, "Harry Millsaps, president of the Emerald Coast Association of Realtos and a Realtor with Prudential Coastal Propertie Inc., says that the area's economy remains strong and home sales are returning to a more normal pace." But in Miami and Orlando, year-to-year homes sales for May decreased 44 and 40 percent respectively. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater decreased 42 percent. And state-wide, down 34 percent.

In a Wall Street Journal report, on June 26th, Michael Corkery wrote, "Many analysts believe home supplies will decrease and prices will stabilize, only after builders shed their unwanted land."

But in Miami-Dade the production home builders and land speculators are still jumping up and down, burning through their cash, and the commissioners are nodding in syncopating rhythm: we need zoning changes and building approvals because more people are coming in to Miami and Florida.

Not now.

All but one of nine Miami-Dade school districts are losing students, a perceptible annual rate on the order of five to ten percent. This is news roundly ignored by Miami city and county commissions.

People are moving, although it hasn't risen to the threshold of Africans fleeing an angry, unrelenting climate. In Miami, the hissing from the housing bubble bursting is perceptible.

As bad as the decline in school enrollments may be, it is still considerably less than the number of Miami homeowners in the clutch of mortgages they may not be able to afford for much longer, residents who would like to move to less expensive locales and are keeping their kids in public schools, holding on and praying for housing values to reverse.

A more likely scenario that improvement in housing values, though, is that the federal government gradually admits to the inflation that has been rampant in the economy, though unacknowledged.

Could it be that prices will be allowed to rise all around the housing bubble, swallowing inflated values in a dollar worth even less than it is, today? There is no humor, in that.

Alan Farago of Coral Gables, who writes about the environment and the politics of South Florida, can be reached at alanfarago@yahoo.com.

 

 



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