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CounterPunch
January
24, 2003
Exile or Martyr?
What If Saddam
Went Into Exile
by WILLIAM M. EVAN
In dictatorships like Iraq and North Korea, one
man, by definition, makes a huge difference. If Saddam Hussein
(or, for that matter, Kim Jong Il) could be induced to go into
exile, regime change could proceed forthwith, thereby saving
us an enormous amount of lives and treasure to unseat them.
The U.S. is now poised to deploy approximately
200,000 troops to the Persian Gulf. Potential coalition members--Britain
and others--are also readying to send thousands of troops and
materiél. Barring an unlikely final report by the U.N.
arms inspectors absolving Saddam Hussein of any violations of
Security Council Resolution 1441, and a refusal by the Security
Council to authorize the use of force, President Bush will order
the invasion of Iraq.
Recent reports that Saudi, Qatari and
other Arab officials have urged Saddam Hussein to resign and
go into exile are very intriguing. Proposed havens for Mr. Hussein
include Libya, Egypt, Iran, Syria, Belarus and others. If these
reports are true, and if Hussein were to act on them favorably,
they might lead to a peaceful resolution of the global crisis.
What are the factors favoring exile and
what factors militate against it? By far the most significant
factor favoring exile is the ongoing massive military build-up.
If Turkey finally permits the U.S. to use its airbases and accepts
logistical and other support operations on the ground, an invasion
of northern Iraq would be possible. And with Saudi Arabia likely
to permit U.S. military operations from the south, a two-frontal
attack would pose an overwhelming threat to Iraq's regime. Faced
with such a threat, Saddam Hussein would not be able to dismiss
it with his usual bellicose rhetoric. He might then see the "handwriting
on the wall." It might finally dawn on him that an impending
invasion would wreak catastrophic destruction on Iraq, including
Baghdad and even Tikrit, where his family and clansmen live.
An offer of safe haven for himself, his three wives, his two
sons, and with an entourage of favorite relatives from Tikrit,
in a culturally-comfortable Arab country, might appeal to Hussein.
The factors militating against Hussein's
choosing exile are substantial. He has virtually never traveled
abroad and hence has developed a xenophobic fear of leaving Iraq.
From reports of his autocratic and ruthless rule of Iraq, he
is evidently intoxicated with power, which he exercises with
megalomaniacal zeal. For example, when his son-in-law defected,
he lured him back to Baghdad and had him promptly executed.
Faced with military defeat in the event
of a U.S. invasion, which even his loyal Republican Guards would
not be able to save him from, he might prefer the role of martyr
for his country.
Further complicating a possible voluntary
choice of exile by Hussein is a fear--not entirely unfounded--of
eventually being extradited to The Hague, to stand trial for
war crimes and innumerable violations of human rights against
his own citizens, especially the Kurds, whom he attacked with
mustard gas. The spectacle of Milosevic being tried for war crimes
in The Hague by an ad hoc tribunal has, I am sure, not been lost
on Saddam Hussein. The ironic fact that the U.S., at the behest
of the Bush administration, has neither signed nor ratified the
Rome Treaty establishing the International Criminal Court, will
not be a source of reassurance to Hussein--unless he were explicitly
guaranteed an exemption from prosecution by an ad hoc tribunal
in The Hague.
Finally, if he were to choose exile in
one of his favorite Arab countries, say Libya, he would find
himself in an anomalous power position vis-à-vis his host:
he would be beholden for his security to Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi.
This would be a strangely uncomfortable position for Hussein,
who operates with a self-image of omnipotence.
Can diplomats from Arab, Muslim and Western
countries continue to exert influence on Saddam Hussein to avail
himself of the opportunity for exile and thus avert a devastating
war on Iraq?
William M. Evan
is professor emeritus of sociology and management at the University
of Pennsylvania. Author of several books on organization theory
and the sociology of law, his most recent book (with Mark Manion)
is Minding
the Machines: Preventing Technological Disasters. He
can be reached at: EvanW@wharton.upenn.edu
Copyright © 2003 William M. Evan.
All rights reserved.
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