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CounterPunch
December
2, 2002
A Glimmer of
Hope?
By MICHAEL DAHAN
A week ago, to those expecting significant political
change in Israel following the upcoming general elections on
January 28th, I would have suggested not holding their breath.
Then, there was little chance that the elections would change
anything. One would ask why, considering the high degree of dissatisfaction
among the Israeli public towards the political system, political
parties and politicians. With such disappointment, one would
expect the electorate to lash out, to actively seek change, to
try and pull itself out of the political mire caused by Netanyahu,
Barak and Sharon. After all, the Israeli economy is on a disaster
course (10.5% unemployment, growing poverty, projected negative
growth, rising inflation together with a deepening recession),
over the past two years the Israeli army sunk to unprecedented
levels of brutality towards the Palestinian people, radical parties
on the right are gaining strength, particularly those whose platform
calls for the "transfer" of Palestinians. One would
expect these elections to deal with these and many other utterly
crucial issues facing the Israeli public. But before the campaign
has even started, it is clear that for the most part, the parties,
particularly the larger ones, will try to refrain from dealing
with the key issues in a clear and coherent way, seeking rather
to blur their stances on these issues.
The only glimmer of hope comes from an
unexpected source--the Labour party and its newly elected leader
Amram Mitzna. Mitzna gained a landslide victory over Binyamin
(Fouad) Ben Eliezer, former party leader and Minister of Defense
under the national unity government. Mitzna presented a fairly
radical position during his campaign (highlighted by the repeated
promise to end Israel's occupation of Palestinians), and gained
a great deal of support for his positions. Members of the Labour
party clearly signaled to its leadership that they have no interest
in becoming a warmed over version of the Likud, as was the case
under Ben Eliezer. An interesting trend can be found in the Likud:
there is clear support among the members of the party for a Palestinian
state. In a recent non partisan poll, 44.8% (7.3% undecided)
of the registered party members of the Likud responded positively
when asked "If Ariel Sharon is elected, would you support
his intention to reach an agreement with Palestinians, including
Palestinian statehood and 'painful' compromise?" [The intention
here is to the dismantling of settlements--MD]. (Ha'aretz Daily,
21 November 2002, p. 4a.). Internal Likud polls leaked to the
public note that 70% of the party members are not against Palestinian
statehood (Ha'aretz Daily, 22 November 2002, p. 2b).
The patterns that are emerging from the
daily polls in Israel are quite clear. Parties that address the
main issues in a concrete way will be strengthened after the
votes are counted. Parties like Moledet (running together with
other far right parties), where the main component of its platform
is the "transfer" of the Palestinians is expected to
gain many seats. Why? Not because the Israeli people as such
are particularly cruel, but rather because they are offering
a solution that purports to solve many of the problems in Israel
today, as despicable and unacceptable as it may be. The same
can be said of the party Shinui whose platform is virulently
anti religious. In a country where public debate has been all
but choked by the power of a constructed "consensus",
it is the role of the parties to introduce clear ideas, innovations
and solutions to the public. Parties that fail to do so will
be considerably weakened, while those that offer viable alternatives
will be strengthened.
In an attempt to appeal to the "center"
and to those that are yet undecided, campaign experts will likely
advise both the Likud and Labour to blur the issues, to present
a centrist position. Parties on the political left are facing
a challenge--to present a brave and innovative platform in the
space of two months. They need to make clear, beyond any shadow
of a doubt, that the situation in Israel today is a direct result
of the 35-year-old Occupation. These parties must convince the
Israeli public that continued Israeli presence in the Occupied
Territories, the continued expansion of the settlements and the
brutal actions of the army and the settlers will eventually destroy
the country. This is not an easy or popular message to get out,
but it is the truth. It is Mitzna's task to rise to this challenge
and to provide brave and courageous leadership for the left.
If he rises to this challenge, there is a chance, albeit slight,
that Mitzna can become Israel's next prime minister. Having stated
that he is willing to form a coalition with the Arab parties
in the Knesset if elected, Mitzna will enjoy both public and
political support for courageous decisions. Of course, a series
of bombings and attacks prior to the elections will play into
the hands of the right, particularly Netanyahu (described as
the "prince of hatred and darkness" by a senior Likud
member), who has made a career dancing on the blood of innocent
people.
Lately, there have been calls from the
far left to boycott the elections or to cast a blank ballot.
The goal of this strategy is clear--to contribute to the rise
of a far right government whose radical actions will finally
convince the public as a whole to support the left. Palestinian
Israelis, disappointed with the Arab parties' ability to bring
about significant change of their 2nd class status as citizens,
are also calling for a boycott of the elections. While one can
understand the call for a boycott of the elections--a call borne
out of the despair of the public on the far left--it is clearly
mistaken and misguided, particularly when there is the chance
of alternative leadership. It is also dangerous and irresponsible
to leave the leadership of the country in the hands of the radical
right.
A few short weeks ago, the results of
the upcoming elections were fairly clear--Sharon as Prime Minister
and a paraplegic unity government. With the election of Mitzna
this has changed, or at the very least, there is a potential
for change. If the parties on the left, led by Labour under Mitzna
fail to rise to this challenge they will be contributing directly
to the downward spiral of Israel. If they fail to present a crystal
clear message and programme to the Israeli public they will be
betraying their leadership role--it is the leadership that is
expected to point to the path, not to blur it. It is the leadership
that is expected to help shape public opinion rather than be
guided blindly by it.
Michael Dahan
is an Israeli American political scientist living in Jerusalem.
He can be reached at mdahan@attglobal.net.
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