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As John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt's long awaited "The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy" draws hysterical abuse, former CIA intelligence officers Kathy and Bill Christison define the Lobby's real nature, trace its history, and measure its actual power. Get your copy today by subscribing online or calling 1-800-840-3683 Remember contributions to CounterPunch are tax-deductible. Click here to make a donation. If you find our site useful please: Subscribe Now
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September 29 / 30, 2007 Wajahat
Ali September 28, 2007 Kathleen
and Bill Christison Roberto
J. González / Saul
Landau Tom
Clifford Christopher
Brauchli Martha
Rosenberg Dave
Zirin Laray
Polk Binoy
Kampmark James
McEnteer Website
of the Day
September 27, 2007 Alan
Farago Andy
Worthington Jonathan
Cook William
Hughes Ray
McGovern Ron
Jacobs Dave
Lindorff Joshua
Frank Anne
Dachel Website
of the Day
Bill
Quigley Paul
Craig Roberts Jeff
Kisseloff China
Hand Behzad
Yaghmaian Sonja
Karkar Mike
Ferner Col.
Dan Smith Clifton
Ross Brenda
Norrell Website
of the Day
September 25, 2007 Nicole
Colson Uri
Avnery Brendan
Cooney Harry
Browne Marjorie
Cohn David
Macaray Ralph
Nader Dan
Bacher Anthony
Papa Christopher
Ketcham Website
of the Day
September 24, 2007 George
Ciccariello-Maher Saree Makdisi David
Keen Sherwood
Ross Ron
Jacobs Donna
Saggia Mike
Ferner Malini
Johar Schueller Monique
Dols Website
of the Day
Alexander
Cockburn Jennifer
Loewenstein Linn
Washington, Jr. Jeffrey
St. Clair Alan
Farago Brian
Cloughley Robert
Fantina Roxanne
Dunbar-Ortiz Jason
Hribal David
Rosen Mike
Whitney John
V. Walsh Dave
Lindorff David
Michael Green Fred
Gardner Cassandra
Jones Roger
van Zwanenberg Poets'
Basement Website
of the Weekend
September 21, 2007 Karim
Makdisi M.
Shahid Alam Alan
Farago Joshua
Frank Dave
Zirin Kenneth
Couesbouc Dr.
Steffie Woolhandler and Dr. David Himmelstein Ben
Terrall Steve
Fournier Frederico
Fuentes, et al Website
of the Day
September 20, 2007 Kathleen
Christison Zoltan
Grossman Paul
Craig Roberts Stan
Cox Russell
Mokhiber Charles
Modiano Raymond
J. Lawrence Brendan
Cooney Website
of the Day
September 19, 2007 Paul
Craig Roberts Paul
Krassner Sgt.
Martin Smith Seth
Sandronsky Claud
Cockburn Victoria
Buch Robert
Weissman Mike
Ferner Dan
Bacher Website
of the Day
September 18, 2007 Mike
Whitney Alan
Farago John
Ross Ron
Jacobs Alex
Doherty September 17, 2007 Marjorie
Cohn Paul
Craig Roberts Ricardo
Alarcón Marc
Levy Eva
Liddell Website
of the Day Sept. 15-16, 2007 Alexander
Cockburn Vicente
Navarro Mike
Whitney Herman
Mindshaftgap Ellen
Cantarow Jordan
Flaherty Zachary
Hurwitz September 14, 2007 Debbie
Nathan Franklin
Lamb Patrick
Cockburn Farzana
Versey Alan
Farago Hank
Edson September 13, 2007 Patrick
Cockburn Scott
Vest, former Air Force Captain at Minot Andy
Worthington Michael
Baney Dr.
Susan Block September 12, 2007 Paul
Craig Roberts Stan
Goff William
Blum Manuel
Garcia Debbie
Nathan September 11, 2007 Patrick
Cockburn Iain
Boal Michael
Dickinson Guerry
Hoddersen Bill
Hatch Gary
Leupp Website
of the Day September 10, 2007 Uri
Avnery Patrick
Cockburn Saul
Landau and Farrah Hassen David
Michael Green Pius
Adesanmi Betty
Schneider September 8 / 9, 2007 Alexander
Cockburn Saul
Landau Ismael
Hossein-Zadeh Ray
McGovern Matthew
Abraham Alan
Farago Christopher
Brauchli Rannie
Amiri Fred
Gardner James
L. Secor Missy
Comley Beattie Ben
Tripp Francis
Boyle Joe
Allen and Paul D'Amato Website
of the Weekend
Robert
Fantina John
Ross James
Brooks Russell
Mokhiber Joshua
Frank John
Walsh Mark
Brenner Mike
Ferner Website
of the Day
September 6, 2007 Kathleen
and Bill Christison Allan
J. Lichtman Norman
Solomon Yifat
Susskind Catherine
Fenton Laura
Santina Farzana
Versey Yves
Engler Kelly
Overton Michael
Simmons Website
of the Day
September 5, 2007 Stan
Goff Michael
Dickinson Matthew
Abraham Patrick
Cockburn Dave
Lindorff Paul
Craig Roberts Clifton
Ross Elizabeth
Schulte Joseph
Grosso Ben
Terrall Website
of the Day
September 4, 2007 Jean
Bricmont Patrick
Cockburn Ron
Jacobs Tom
Kerr Gary
Leupp Sonja
Karkar Heather
Gray Fidel
Castro Jackie
Corr Sunsara
Taylor Website
of the Day
September 3, 2007 Patrick
Cockburn Eamon
McCann Joshua
Frank Chris
Floyd Marjorie
Cohn Walter
Brasch Matt
Reichel Website
of the Day
September 1 / 2, 2007 Alexander
Cockburn Andy
Worthington Saul
Landau David
Keen Patrick
Cockburn Diana
Johnstone George
Longstreth, MD Linda
M. Woolf Ralph
Nader Fred
Gardner Ben
Tripp David
Michael Green Missy
Comley Beattie Michael
Dickinson Paul
Krassner Ron
Jacobs Poets'
Basement
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Weekend
Edition How to Make Iraq Look Like Whipped CreamSo What About Iran?By URI AVNERY A respected American paper posted a scoop this week: Vice-President Dick Cheney, the King of Hawks, has thought up a Machiavellian scheme for an attack on Iran. Its main point: Israel will start by bombing an Iranian nuclear installation, Iran will respond by launching missiles at Israel, and this will serve as a pretext for an American attack on Iran. Far-fetched? Not really. It is rather like what happened in 1956. Then France, Israel and Britain secretly planned to attack Egypt in order to topple Gamal Abd-al-Nasser ("regime change" in today's lingo.) It was agreed that Israeli paratroops would be dropped near the Suez Canal, and that the resulting conflict would serve as a pretext for the French and British to occupy the canal area in order to "secure" the waterway. This plan was implemented (and failed miserably). What would happen to us if we agreed to Cheney's plan? Our pilots would risk their lives to bomb the heavily defended Iranian installations. Then, Iranian missiles would rain down on our cities. Hundreds, perhaps thousands would be killed. All this in order to supply the Americans with a pretext to go to war. Would the pretext have stood up? In other words, is the US obliged to enter a war on our side, even when that war is caused by us? In theory, the answer is yes. The current agreements between the US and Israel say that America has to come to Israel's aid in any war - whoever started it. Is there any substance to this leak? Hard to know. But it strengthens the suspicion that an attack on Iran is more imminent than people imagine. Do Bush, Cheney & Co. indeed intend to attack Iran? I don't know, but my suspicion that they might is getting stronger. Why? Because George Bush is nearing the end of his term of office. If it ends the way things look now, he will be remembered as a very bad - if not the worst - president in the annals of the republic. His term started with the Twin Towers catastrophe, which reflected no great credit on the intelligence agencies, and would come to a close with the grievous Iraq fiasco. There is only one year left to do something impressive and save his name in the history books. In such situations, leaders tend to look for military adventures. Taking into account the man's demonstrated character traits, the war option suddenly seems quite frightening. True, the American army is pinned down in Iraq and Afghanistan. Even people like Bush and Cheney could not dream, at this time, of invading a country four times larger than Iraq, with three times the population. But, quite possibly the war-mongers are whispering in Bush's ear: What are you worrying about? No need for an invasion. Enough to bomb Iran, as we bombed Serbia and Afghanistan. We shall use the smartest bombs and the most sophisticated missiles against the two thousand or so targets, in order to destroy not only the Iranian nuclear sites but also their military installations and government offices. "We shall bomb them back into the stone age," as an American general once said about Vietnam, or "turn their clock back 20 years," as the Israeli Air Force general Dan Halutz said about Lebanon. That's a tempting idea. The US will only use its mighty Air Force, missiles of all kinds and the powerful aircraft-carriers, which are already deployed in the Persian/Arabian Gulf. All these can be sent into action at any time on short notice. For a failed president approaching the end of his term, the idea of an easy, short war must have an immense attraction. And this president has already shown how hard it is for him to resist temptations of this kind. Would this indeed be such an easy operation, a "piece of cake" in American parlance? I doubt it. Even "smart" bombs kill people. The Iranians are a proud, resolute and highly motivated people. They point out that for two thousand years they have never attacked another country, but during the eight years of the Iran-Iraq war they have amply proved their determination to defend their own when attacked. Their first reaction to an American attack would be to close the Straits of Hormuz, the entrance to the Gulf. That would choke off a large part of the world's oil supply and cause an unprecedented world-wide economic crisis. To open the straits (if this is at all possible), the US army would have to capture and hold large areas of Iranian territory. The short and easy war would turn into a long and hard war. What does that mean for us in Israel? There can be little doubt that if attacked, Iran will respond as it has promised: by bombarding us with the rockets it is preparing for this precise purpose. That will not endanger Israel's existence, but it will not be pleasant either. If the American attack turns into a long war of attrition, and if the American public comes to see it as a disaster (as is happening right now with the Iraqi adventure), some will surely put the blame on Israel. It is no secret that the Pro-Israel lobby and its allies - the (mostly Jewish) neo-cons and the Christian Zionists - are pushing America into this war, just as they pushed it into Iraq. For Israeli policy, the hoped-for gains of this war may turn into giant losses - not only for Israel, but also for the American Jewish community. If Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did not exist, the Israeli government would have had to invent him. He has got almost everything one could wish for in an enemy. He has a big mouth. He is a braggart. He enjoys causing scandals. He is a Holocaust denier. He prophesies that Israel will "vanish from the map" (though he did not say, as falsely reported, the he would wipe Israel off the map.) This week, the pro-Israel lobby organized big demonstrations against his visit to New York. They were a huge success - for Ahmadinejad. He has realized his dream of becoming the center of world attention. He has been given the opportunity to voice his arguments against Israel -- some outrageous, some valid - before a world-wide audience. But Ahmadinejad is not Iran. True, he has won popular elections, but Iran is like the orthodox parties in Israel: it is not their politicians who count, but their rabbis. The Shiite religious leadership makes the decisions and commands the armed forces, and this body is neither boastful nor vociferous not scandal-mongering. It exercises a lot of caution. If Iran was really so eager to obtain a nuclear bomb, it would have acted in utmost silence and kept as low a profile as possible (as Israel did). The swaggering of Ahmadinejad would hurt this effort more than any enemy of Iran could. It is highly unpleasant to think about a nuclear bomb in Iranian hands (and, indeed, in any hands.) I hope it can be avoided by offering inducements and/or imposing sanctions. But even if this does not succeed, it would not be the end of the world, nor the end of Israel. In this area, more than in any other, Israel's deterrent power is immense. Even Ahmadinejad will not risk an exchange of queens - the destruction of Iran for the destruction of Israel. Napoleon said that to understand a country's policy, one has only to look at the map. If we do this, we shall see that there is no objective reason for war between Israel and Iran. On the contrary, for a long time it was believed in Jerusalem that the two countries were natural allies. David Ben-Gurion advocated an "alliance of the periphery". He was convinced that the entire Arab world is the natural enemy of Israel, and that, therefore, allies should be sought on the fringes of the Arab world - Turkey, Iran, Ethiopia, Chad etc. (He also looked for allies inside the Arab world - communities that are not Sunni-Arab, such as the Maronites, the Copts, the Kurds, the Shiites and others.) At the time of the Shah, very close connections existed between Iran and Israel, some positive, some negative, some outright sinister. The Shah helped to build a pipeline from Eilat to Askelon, in order to transport Iranian oil to the Mediterranean, bypassing the Suez Canal. The Israel internal secret service (Shabak) trained its notorious Iranian counterpart (Savak). Israelis and Iranians acted together in Iraqi Kurdistan, helping the Kurds against their Sunni-Arab oppressors. The Khomeini revolution did not, in the beginning, put an end to this alliance, it only drove it underground. During the Iran-Iraq war, Israel supplied Iran with arms, on the assumption that anyone fighting Arabs is our friend. At the same time, the Americans supplied arms to Saddam Hussein - one of the rare instances of a clear divergence between Washington and Jerusalem. This was bridged in the Iran-Contra Affair, when the Americans helped Israel to sell arms to the Ayatollahs. Today, an ideological struggle is raging between the two countries, but it is mainly fought out on the rhetorical and demagogical level. I dare to say that Ahmadinejad doesn't give a fig for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, he only uses it to make friends in the Arab world. If I were a Palestinian, I would not rely on it. Sooner or later, geography will tell and Israeli-Iranian relations will return to what they were - hopefully on a far more positive basis. One thing I am ready to predict with confidence: whoever pushes for war against Iran will come to regret it. Some adventures are easy to get into but hard to get out of. The last one to find this out was Saddam Hussein. He thought that it would be a cakewalk - after all, Khomeini had killed off most of the officers, and especially the pilots, of the Shah's military. He believed that one quick Iraqi blow would be enough to bring about the collapse of Iran. He had eight long years of war to regret it. Both the Americans and we may soon be feeling that the Iraqi mud is like whipped cream compared to the Iranian quagmire. Uri Avnery is an Israeli writer and peace activist
with Gush Shalom. He is o a contributor to CounterPunch's book
The
Politics of Anti-Semitism.
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