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CounterPunch
September
10, 2002
Bush and Sharon
The War Drummers
by Uri Avnery
Slowly, President Bush's war plan against Iraq
is emerging from the thick fog. At first it looked like a collection
of hazy slogans, but gradually it is becoming clear that it has
definite--if hidden--aims.
The plan is unconnected to the famous
"war on terrorism", to the personality of Saddam Hussein
or to the weapons of mass destruction that Iraq is producing,
like all the other states in the region, from Pakistan to Israel
and Egypt. Critics of the war plans (including myself) have pointed
to the disastrous political results that must be expected: Iraq
would break into three parts (Kurds in the north, Sunnis in the
center, Shi'ites in the south), the Middle East would be exposed
to the onslaught of Iranian fanaticism, pro-Western Arab regimes
would collapse. Israel would be surrounded by aggressive Islamic
fundamentalism, like the Crusader kingdom with the advent of
Saladin.
This evaluation is based on an assumption
that has been true for some time: the United States is not ready
to keep large numbers of troops in far-away countries. This would
mean that after the conquest of Iraq the troops would return
home, leaving Iraq to its fate. But it is quite possible that
this assumption is not valid anymore.
The war plan of the Bushies makes sense
only if the US leadership is ready--more than that, is actually
longing for--the occupation of Iraq in order to remain there
for many-many years.
Such an occupation will necessitate a
big investment of troops and resources. It will commit large
military forces for a long time. That is why the plan is opposed
by the American generals (including the Secretary of State, General
Colin Powell). But in the eyes of Bush and his advisers, this
is a very worthwhile investment that would yield immense benefits.
Among others:
* The main objective of the American
economy (and therefore of American policy) is the oil of the
Caspian Sea. The exploitation of this gigantic reservoir, the
biggest in the world, has not yet started. Its control will ensure
that America has cheap fuel for decades to come. Bush, a typical
oil man who despises alternative "environment friendly"
sources of energy, considers this a major aim.
* On its way to the market, the oil must
reach the open sea. There are several possible routes--via Afghanistan
and Pakistan or Turkey. Iraq is close to all of them, and American
air and ground forces stationed there will guarantee American
domination over the entire region.
* The existence of a secure American
base in the heart of the Arab world will also enable Washington
to bully all the Arab regimes, lest they stray from the straight
and narrow. The pressure on Saudi Arabia will be immense. Not
only will the American bases in Saudi Arabia become redundant,
but by manipulating the oil prices America could bring the kingdom
to the brink of bankruptcy.
* The new situation would finally break
OPEC. Washington will decide the price of oil and how it is distributed.
* The new situation will destroy the
last remnants of Arab independence. Even today, almost all the
Arab countries are dependent on America. A massive American physical
presence in their midst will put an end to any pretense of Arab
power and unity.
* Neighboring Iran, too, will lose its
appetite for opposing the American Big Satan. Iran will be threatened
on both sides by the American bases in Afghanistan and Iraq.
* Total American control over all the
oil resources, from Kazakhstan in the north to Saudi Arabia in
the south, will put an end to any European hopes of competing
with the economic and political might of the United States. He
who controls the oil controls the economy. Increased oil prices
might throw millions of workers into the streets of Europe and
East Asia.
How will the occupation function? When
Americans think of occupation, they rely on their experience
in Japan. There, after the capitulation, an American general,
Douglas McArthur, reigned without limits. The Japanese obeyed
dutifully, because they were instructed to do so by their revered
emperor, the Mikado.
Now some people in Washington dream of
installing an Iraqi Mikado, somebody from the Hashemite dynasty
that ruled Iraq until 1958, when the last king was murdered.
Why not put another family member on the throne, some relative
of the king of Jordan--or, come to think of it, why not unite
Iraq and Jordan under one crown?
A grandiose, world-embracing, yet simple
and logical design. What does it remind me of? Indeed, the style
sounds vaguely familiar. In the early 80's, I heard about several
plans like this from Ariel Sharon (which I published at the time).
His head was full of grand designs for restructuring the Middle
East, the creation of an Israeli "security zone" from
Pakistan to Central Africa, the overthrow of regimes and installing
others in their stead, moving a whole people (the Palestinians)
and so forth.
I can't help it, but the winds blowing
now in Washington remind me of Sharon. I have absolutely no proof
that the Bushies got their ideas from him, even if all of them
seem to have been mesmerized by him. But the style is the same--a
mixture of megalomania, creativity, arrogance, ignorance and
superficiality. An explosive mixture.
Sharon's grand design floundered, as
we know. The bold flights of imagination and the superficial
logic did not help--Sharon simply did not understand the real
currents of history. I fear that the band of Bush, Cheney, Rumsfield,
Rice, Wolfowitz, Pearl and all the other little Sharons are suffering
from the same syndrome.
Iraq is not Japan, and the Iraqis will
not obey a Mikado brought in by the Americans as they now obey
a local nationalist dictator. Islamic fundamentalism is not an
animal that can be tamed easily. Hundreds of millions of enraged
human beings all over the Arab and Muslim world are a great danger,
even for a mighty military power.
Sharon may believe that he will be the
big winner of such an American move, though history may show
that he brought a historical disaster on us. He may succeed in
exploiting the ensuing anarchy in order to drive the Palestinians
out of the country. But within a few years Israel could find
itself surrounded by a new Middle East--and not the one Shimon
Peres is driveling on about. A region full of hatred, dreaming
of revenge, driven by religious and nationalist fanaticism. And
in the end, the Americans will go home. We will be left here
alone.
But people like Bush and Sharon do not
march to the beat of history. They are listening to a different
drummer.
Uri Avnery has closely followed the career of Ariel Sharon
for four decades. Over the years, he has written three extensive
biographical essays about him, two (1973, 1981) with his cooperation.
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