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Recent
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April
3, 2003
Uri
Avnery
A Crooked Mirror: Presstitution and
the Theater of Operations
David
Vest
Can You Hear the Silence?
Anthony
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David
Lindorff
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Michael
Roberts
War, Debts and Deficits
Ramzy
Baroud
Now That Iraqis Are Being Killed Is Israel Any More Secure?
Jo Wilding
From Baghdad with Tears
Anton
Antonowicz
Cluster Bombs on Babylon
Alison
Weir
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Bruce
Jackson
Hating Wolf Blitzer's Voice
Eliot Katz
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Steve
Perry
War Web Log 04/03
April
2, 2003
Alexander
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The Politics of Casualties
David
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William
Blum
Some Observations on the Recent Behavior of the Empire
Gustavio
Sierra
The Morning After the Slaughter at
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Patrick
Cockburn
Playing Into Saddam's Hands
Robert
Jensen
Peter Arnett: Whipping Boy of the
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Jeremy
Brecher
Uniting for Peace Update
N.D.
Jayaprakash
The Siege of Basra
LaDawn
Haglund
You Can Jail the Resisters, But You
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Robert
Fisk
Truth and Subterfuge
Jemima
Khan
I'm Ashamed to be British
Steve
Perry
War Web Log
Stew Albert
Total War
Website
of the Day
Traitor List: Sign Up Now!
April
1, 2003
Jason
Leopold
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William
S. Lind
The Pitfalls of War Planning
Jorge
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Latinos on the Frontlines, Again
Paul
de Rooij
Arrogant Propaganda
Jo
Wilding
From Baghdad: "I Am His Mother"
Tarif
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Operation Embedded Folly
Lee
Sustar
Labor's War at Home
Akiva Eldar
Israeli Dreams of Iraqi Oil
Bernard
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The Vietnam Connection
Robert
Fisk
The Graveyard at Baghdad's North
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Perry
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Website
of the Day
A Collectible War
March
31, 2003
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Neve Gordon
A Different Kind of Despair
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Bernie Sanders Voting Maybe on
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Blood and Bandages of the Innocent
Robin Cook
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Uri Avnery
The Devil's Dictionary
Steve
Perry
War Web Log 03/31
March
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Perle is Gone, But the Looting
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Robert
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Bombing the Phone System
Brice Abel
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Alexander
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"War Not Going According
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March 28,
2003
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Fisk
Bitter Truths About Basra
Daniel
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David Lindorff
Saddam, a Hero Made in Washington
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Riad
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Schlock and Awe
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Perry
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March 27,
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The New Humanitarianism: Basra as
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Simon Jones
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William
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Diane Christian
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March 26,
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Watch
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Shock But Not Awe
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POWs,
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We
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April 5,
2003
A
Road Map to Nowhere
Or Much Ado
About Nothing
By URI AVNERY
This could have been an important
document, IF...
IF all the parties really
wanted to achieve a fair compromise.
IF Sharon and Co. were
really prepared to give back the occupied territories and dismantle
the settlements.
IF the Americans were
willing to exert serious pressure on Israel.
IF there were a president
in Washington like Dwight Eisenhower, who did not give a damn
about Jewish votes and donations.
IF George Bush were convinced
that the Road Map serves his interests, instead of being a bone
to throw to his British poodle.
IF Tony Blair thought
that it serves his interests, instead of being a crumb to throw
to his domestic rivals.
IF the United Nations
had any real power.
IF Europe had any real
power.
IF Russia had any real
power. 
IF my grandmother had
wheels.
All these Ifs belong
to an imaginary world. Therefore, nothing will come from all
the talking about this document. The embryo is dead in the womb
of its mother, the Quartet.
In spite of this, let's
try to treat the matter in all seriousness. Is this a good document?
Could it be helpful, if all the Ifs were realistic?
In order to answer this
seriously, one has to distinguish between the declared objectives
and the road that is supposed to lead to them.
The objectives are very
positive. They are identical with the aims of the Israeli peace
movement: an end to the occupation, the establishment of the
independent State of Palestine side-by-side with the State of
Israel, Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Syrian peace, the integration
of Israel in the region.
In this respect, the
Road Map goes further than the Oslo agreement. In the Oslo "Declaration
of Principles" there was a giant hole: it did not spell
out what was to come after the long interim stages. Without a
clear final aim, the interim stages had no clear purpose. Therefore
the Oslo process died with Yitzhaq Rabin.
The Road Map confirms
that there now exists a worldwide consensus about these objectives.
This fact will remain even if nothing comes out of it. Those
of us who remember that only 35 years ago there were hardly a
handful of people in the world who believed in this vision can
draw profound satisfaction from this Road Map. It shows that
we have won the struggle for world public opinion.
But let's not exaggerate:
in this document, too, there is a gaping hole in the definition
of the aims. It does not say what the borders of the future Palestinian
State should be, neither explicitly nor implicitly. The Green
Line is not even mentioned. That by itself is enough to invalidate
the whole structure. Ariel Sharon talks about a Palestinian state
in 40% of the "territories" equivalent to less
than 9% of Palestine under the British Mandate. Does anyone believe
that this will bring peace?
When we pass from poetry
to prose, from the mountaintop of the aims to the road that is
supposed to get us there, the warning signs become more and more
frequent. This is a perilous road with many curves and obstacles.
Even a very brave athlete would shudder at the thought of having
to run this course.
The road is divided into
phases. In every phase the parties must fulfil certain obligations.
At the end of each phase the Quartet must decide whether the
obligations have been completely fulfilled, before entering the
next one. At the end, the hoped-for peace will come, God willing.
Even if all the parties
were imbued with goodwill, it would be extremely difficult. When
David Lloyd-George, as British Prime Minister, decided to end
the British occupation of Ireland, he observed that one cannot
cross an abyss in two jumps. The initiators of the Road Map propose,
in effect, to cross the Israeli-Palestinian abyss in many small
hops.
First question: who is
this "Quartet" that has to decide at every point whether
the two parties have fulfilled their obligations, and a new phase
can be entered?
At first glance, there
is a balance between the four players: the United Nations, the
United States, Europe and Russia. It is rather like a commercial
arbitration: each side appoints one arbitrator, and the two arbitrators
together choose a third one. Judgement is reached by majority
decision and is binding on both parties.
This could work. The
United States are close to Israel, Europe and Russia are acceptable
to the Palestinians. The UN representative would have the casting
vote.
Not at all. According
to the document, the Quartet must take all decisions unanimously.
The Americans have a veto, which means that Sharon has a veto.
Without his agreement, nothing can be decided. Need more be said?
Second question: When
will it end?
Well, there is no clear-cut
timetable for passing from one phase to the next. The document
vaguely mentions several vague dates, but they are difficult
to take seriously. The first phase should have started in October,
2002, and come to a close in May 2003. In the real world, the
Map will be shown to the Israelis and the Palestinians for the
first time in May, and only then will the serious haggling begin.
Nobody can foresee when the implementation of the first phase
will actually begin. And in the meantime
It should be remembered:
in the Oslo agreements many dates were fixed, and almost all
of them were missed (generally by the Israeli side). As the good
Rabin declared: "There are no sacred dates."
Third question: Is there
any kind of balance between the obligations on the two parties?
The answer must be "no".
In the first phase, the
Palestinians must stop the armed Intifada, establish close security
cooperation with the Israelis and recognize Israel's right to
exist in peace and security. They must also appoint an "empowered"
Prime Minister (meaning, in effect, the neutralization of the
elected president, Yasser Arafat) and start the drafting of a
constitution that will meet with the approval of the Quartet.
What must Israel do at
the same time? It must enable Palestinian officials (note: officials.
This does not apply to the rest of the population) to move from
place to place, improve the humanitarian situation, stop attacks
on civilians and the demolition of homes and pay the Palestinians
the money due to them. Also, it will dismantle "settlement
outposts" erected since Sharon came to power, in violation
of the government's guidelines. Who will decide to whom this
applies? There is also no mention of freezing settlement activity
in this phase.
Does anyone believe that
Prime Minister Abu Mazen could put an end to Hamas and Jihad
attacks without any political quid pro quo at all, and while
the settlements keep expanding?
After this phase, the
Palestinians must reform their institutions, create a constitution
"based on strong parliamentary democracy" (they will
not be allowed to have an American presidential system, for fear
of Arafat retaining some powers). Only then, "as comprehensive
security performance moves forward", the Israeli army will
"withdraw progressively from areas occupied since September
28, 2000". Not immediately, not in one withdrawal, but bit
by bit, "progressively". Not from areas B and C, but
only from area A. They will be where they were before the present
Intifada.
(There is an old Jewish joke about a family that complains about
being crowded together in one room. The rabbi advises them to
bring in a goat, too.
Later, when the family
complains that life has become intolerable, the rabbi tells them
to take the goat out again. Suddenly they feel that they have
a lot of space. This time the Israeli army is told to remove
the goat, but the Palestinians are told to remove father and
mother.)
After all this, the next
phase will start; the Palestinians will adopt their constitution
and hold free elections, the Egyptians and Jordanians will send
their ambassadors back to Israel and the Israeli government will,
at last, freeze settlement activity.
The next phase will focus
on the "possible" creation of an independent Palestinian
state with "provisional borders". So, long after all
attacks have been stopped, there will be an "option"
of creating a Palestinian state in Area A, a tiny part of what
used to be Palestine. According to the Roadmap, this should happen
by the end of 2003, but it is clear that, if at all, this will
come about much later. It is also stated that "further action
on settlements" will be a part of the process. What does
this mean? Not the dismantling of a single settlement, not even
the most remote and isolated one.
After all this comes
about, the Quartet will decide (again: unanimously - only with
the agreement of the Americans) that the time has come for negotiations
aimed at a "permanent status agreement", hopefully
in 2005, including discussion of items such as borders, Jerusalem,
refugees and settlements. If Sharon or his successor want it,
there will be an agreement. In not, then not.
The truth is, in this
whole document there is not one word that Sharon could not accept.
After all, with the help of Bush he can torpedo any step at any
time.
To sum up: Much Ado about
Nothing. As evidenced by the fact that neither Sharon nor the
settlers are upset.
Uri Avnery
is an Israeli journalist. His essays are included in The
Other Israel: Voices of Refusal and Dissent.
Today's
Features
Uri
Avnery
A Crooked Mirror: Presstitution and
the Theater of Operations
David
Vest
Can You Hear the Silence?
Anthony
Gancarski
Colin Powell Telemarketer
David
Lindorff
Takoma: the Dolphin Who Refused
to Fight
Michael
Roberts
War, Debts and Deficits
Ramzy
Baroud
Now That Iraqis Are Being Killed Is Israel Any More Secure?
Jo Wilding
From Baghdad with Tears
Anton
Antonowicz
Cluster Bombs on Babylon
Alison
Weir
Israel, We Won't Forget Rachel Corrie
Bruce
Jackson
Hating Wolf Blitzer's Voice
Eliot Katz
War's First Week
Steve
Perry
War Web Log 04/03
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