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Recent
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May
3, 2003
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May
5, 2003
Sharon's Confidence
Bush Won't Come to Shove
by TARIF ABBOUSHI
Last Wednesday the Bush administration released
the much-anticipated Road Map for Arab-Israeli peace. It spells
out a timeline for the three-phase implementation of specific
measures by both sides under the auspices of the Quartet comprising
the United States, the European Union, Russia, and the United
Nations. Its goal is a permanent resolution of the Arab-Israeli
conflict by 2005 based on UN Security Council Resolutions 224,
338 and 1397, with two states, Israel and a sovereign, independent,
democratic and viable Palestine, living side-by-side in peace
and security. Prospects for success are grim at best, hinging
on how the three major players" the Palestinian Authority,
the government of Israel and the United States" will act
at the critical junctures.
In a repeat of the Oslo process' fatal
flaw, negotiations on the most contentious issues" permanent
borders, status of Jerusalem, status of Israeli settlements established
since 1967, and resolution of the Palestinian refugees' right
of return" are scheduled towards the end of the road, for
Phase III in 2004. Yet it is doubtful that even the provisions
of Phase I, to be implemented immediately, will see the light
of day.
Even before they take any action on the
ground, the two sides are to issue unequivocal statements: The
Palestinian leadership reiterating Israel's right to exist in
peace and security, and the Israeli government affirming its
commitment to an independent, viable, sovereign Palestinian state.
Both are problematic. The Palestinian leadership" in the
person of newly-appointed Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas and his
cabinet" speaks for an undetermined number of Palestinians.
Its statements about Israel's right to exist are rejected by
Hamas and Islamic Jihad, two of the Palestinian factions that
enjoy significant support among Palestinians for their use of
suicide bombings against Israeli civilians to create a "symmetry
of pain and suffering" between the two peoples. The majority
party in the Israeli government is the Likud, whose central committee
passed a unanimous resolution last year rejecting the establishment
of any independent Palestinian state between the River Jordan
and the Mediterranean Sea. Its two largest coalition partners,
the National Union Party and the National Religious Party, are,
if anything, ideologically to its right. Any statement of unequivocal
commitment to an independent and viable Palestinian state"
improbable to begin with" will likely lead to the collapse
of the government.
Far surpassing the difficulties of uttering
the right words are the demands on the two sides to diffuse tensions
on the ground by taking parallel actions that are themselves
potentially highly explosive. The Palestinian leadership is required
to arrest, disrupt and restrain individuals and groups conducting
and planning violent attacks on Israelis. That virtually translates
to civil war between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, Islamic
Jihad and al-Aqsa Martyr's Brigade, among others. For its part
the Israeli government is required to refrain from attacking
Palestinian civilians and to end its destruction of Palestinian
homes, property, institutions and infrastructure. It is also
required to immediately dismantle settlement outposts erected
since March 2001, and to freeze all settlement activity, including
natural growth of settlements. There is another prescription
for its collapse.
To have any chance of success, the roadmap
needs as intense and vigorous a personal commitment by President
Bush as he displayed toward creating a new reality in Iraq, including
a willingness to force the issue on Israel. That is unlikely
to be forthcoming if his political survival is at stake. A large
majority of senators and members of congress have signed a letter
urging Mr. Bush not to pressure Israel on the roadmap. He hears
the same message from his core constituents in the pro-Israel
Christian Right. With preparations for the 2004 re-election campaign
already underway, President Bush is faced with a simple choice:
alienate his most important base of support at home to repay
British Prime Minister Tony Blair for his unwavering solidarity
on Iraq, or let Blair take care of his own political skin, let
the roadmap go the way of mideast peace processes past, retain
the good graces of his friends at home, and thus maximize his
chances of a second term in the Oval Office, this time probably
with a clear-cut victory in Florida
The Sharon government has prepared a
long list of objections to specifics in the roadmap, not least
of which is the requirement that both sides perform most of their
obligations in parallel. National Security Adviser Condoleeza
Rice and Secretary of State Colin Powell have stressed that the
roadmap is non-negotiable. In Israel they're betting that Bush
won't come to shove.
Tarif Abboushi lives
in Houston, Texas. He can be reached at: tabboushi@aol.com
Yesterday's
Features
Saul Landau
The Cuba Conundrum
Neve
Gordon
US: No Right to Know About the Disappeared
John
Chuckman
Tom Friedman's Life as a Pet Hamster
Bradley
Burston
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Harvey
Wasserman
Bush's Military Defeat
John
Troyer
Question Those Writing History
Caoimhe
Butterly
Crowd Control American-style
Steve
Perry
Bush's War Web Log 5/02
Website
of the Day
Moussaoui's
Quiz
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