FacebookTwitterGoogle+RedditEmail

US and Egypt: a Relationship on the Rocks

by JAMES ZOGBY

The US-Egypt relationship is on the rocks. If it is to be salvaged, both sides will need to change course and pay attention to the concerns of their respective publics, both of whom now hold negative views of each other.

In the year that has passed since massive and sustained demonstrations forced Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak out of office, Egypt remains quite unsettled with many Egyptians and Americans uncertain about that country’s future.

In a poll of Egyptian opinion conducted by Zogby Research Services (ZRS) in late September of 2011, Egyptians were clear about the fact that their political priorities had not changed since the upheavals of January and February 2011. When we had last polled in Egypt, in late 2009, Egyptians said their top concerns, in order, were: improving healthcare, expanding employment, increasing educational opportunities, and ending corruption and nepotism. Far down the list were expanding democracy and political reform.

Two years later, the rank order of this list of political concerns hasn’t much changed. Employment, education, healthcare and ending corruption still form the top tier, with democracy-related concerns ranking lower. Amidst the continuing turmoil that is rocking the country and the standoff between demonstrators, the newly elected parliament and the military authority, what most Egyptians are saying is that they want a government free of corruption that can create jobs and provide for their basic needs. This has not changed and nor has it happened.

Nevertheless, most Egyptians remain hopeful that change will be forthcoming. Two recent polls by ZRS establish that majorities are optimistic and waiting. Eight in 10 express the hope that their lives will improve in the next five years, and more than one-half reserve their criticism, saying “it is too early” to judge the success or failure of the process underway.

What haven’t changed are Egyptian views of the US. In mid- summer 2011, only five per cent held a favourable view of the US, pointing to American bias towards Israel and meddling in Arab affairs as the main reasons for their negative views, with 89 per cent saying that US policies do not “contribute to peace and stability in the Arab world”.

For the first time in our two decades of polling US attitudes towards the Arab world, we find that Americans now hold a net negative view of Egypt. In the past, Egypt always fared quite well in US opinion. Since the 1990s, Egypt’s favourable ratings have been between the mid-50 per cent to mid- 60 per cent range, while the country’s unfavourable ratings were, on average, around 20 per cent. In the last year of Mubarak’s rule, positive US opinions towards Egypt declined, slipping into the high 40 per cent range. But with positive US media coverage of the demonstrations in Tahrir Square, favourable ratings shot up, increasing by 20 points. That was one year ago.

A more recent survey of American opinion, conducted in January of 2012, by JZ Analytic for New York University Abu Dhabi, shows that the continued turmoil in Egypt, the behaviour of the military authority (the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces — SCAF), and questions about the Muslim Brotherhood’s new leadership role have dramatically altered US perceptions of Egypt. Now only 32 per cent of Americans have a favourable attitude towards Egypt, with 34 per cent holding a negative view (and 33 per cent saying they are “not sure”).

The poll also shows that some Americans are uneasy with political developments in Egypt. When asked specifically how they felt about the Muslim Brotherhood winning control in the last election, only four per cent said that this was a “positive development for Egypt”. Just 19 per cent agreed that “this was the outcome of a democratic election and we must accept the results,” while 26 per cent said that in their view this represented a “setback for Egypt” (a view held by 42 per cent of Republicans). A rather substantial 39 per cent were “not sure”.

These numbers are important. The emphasis given by Egyptians to the need for material improvement in their lives, and the (maybe unrealistically) high level of optimism expressed by Egyptians establish markers that neither the military government nor the new parliament can afford to ignore. There is also a cautionary note here that Egypt’s young revolutionaries should be aware of. The public may still support the “revolution” that brought down the old regime, but what they want now are jobs and real improvement in the quality of their lives. As valid as the young revolutionaries’ critique of the military and security services may be, and as important as their demands are, they must take care not to lose public support or allow SCAF to drive a wedge between them and the broader public.

Egypt’s leaders, both new and old, also need to be attentive to the dramatic drop in US public support. While in the past, Egypt could count on high favourable ratings from Americans; these positive ratings were mostly soft and derivative. Americans didn’t really know Egypt (what they did know were pyramids and the Sphinx), and US politicians knew that Egypt could be counted on to support American policy — hence, they spoke well of Egypt and its leader. Today, this has changed and the polls demonstrate the impact of this change. If Egypt’s military and government want to risk a confrontation with Washington, they may find that they have diminished American public support and fewer allies than before.

America, too, should take note of these polls. Wanting democracy for Egypt may be noble, but US standing in Egypt and the region, as a whole, is too low for American leaders to be using the bully pulpit. What Egyptians most want to see from the US is a change in America’s regional policy and help in building their country’s capacity to provide for the people’s basic needs.

James Zogby is president of the Arab American Institute.

More articles by:

CounterPunch Magazine

minimag-edit

bernie-the-sandernistas-cover-344x550

zen economics

Weekend Edition
March 24, 2017
Friday - Sunday
Michael Hudson
Trump is Obama’s Legacy: Will this Break up the Democratic Party?
Eric Draitser
Donald Trump and the Triumph of White Identity Politics
Jeffrey St. Clair
Roaming Charges: Nothing Was Delivered
Andrew Levine
Ryan’s Choice
Joshua Frank
Global Coal in Freefall, Tar Sands Development Drying Up (Bad News for Keystone XL)
Anthony DiMaggio
Ditching the “Deep State”: The Rise of a New Conspiracy Theory in American Politics
Rob Urie
Boris and Natasha Visit Fantasy Island
John Wight
London and the Dreary Ritual of Terrorist Attacks
Paul Buhle
The CIA and the Intellectuals…Again
David Rosen
Why Did Trump Target Transgender Youth?
Vijay Prashad
Inventing Enemies
Ben Debney
Outrage From the Imperial Playbook
M. Shadee Malaklou
An Open Letter to Duke University’s Class of 2007, About Your Open Letter to Stephen Miller
Michael J. Sainato
Bernie Sanders’ Economic Advisor Shreds Trumponomics
Lawrence Davidson
Moral Failure at the UN
Pete Dolack
World Bank Declares Itself Above the Law
Nicola Perugini - Neve Gordon
Israel’s Human Rights Spies
Patrick Cockburn
From Paris to London: Another City, Another Attack
Ralph Nader
Reason and Justice Address Realities
Ramzy Baroud
‘Decolonizing the Mind’: Using Hollywood Celebrities to Validate Islam
Colin Todhunter
Monsanto in India: The Sacred and the Profane
Louisa Willcox
Grizzlies Under the Endangered Species Act: How Have They Fared?
Norman Pollack
Militarization of American Fascism: Trump the Usurper
Pepe Escobar
North Korea: The Real Serious Options on the Table
Brian Cloughley
“These Things Are Done”: Eavesdropping on Trump
Sheldon Richman
You Can’t Blame Trump’s Military Budget on NATO
Carol Wolman
Trump vs the People: a Psychiatrist’s Analysis
Stanley L. Cohen
The White House . . . Denial and Cover-ups
Kollibri terre Sonnenblume
Marines to Kill Desert Tortoises
Farhang Jahanpour
America’s Woes, Europe’s Responsibilities
Joseph Natoli
March Madness Outside the Basketball Court
Bill Willers
Volunteerism; Charisma; the Ivy League Stranglehold: a Very Brief Trilogy
Bruce Mastron
Slaughtered Arabs Don’t Count
Ayesha Khan
The Headscarf is Not an Islamic Compulsion
Pauline Murphy
Unburied Truth: Exposing the Church’s Iron Chains on Ireland
Ron Jacobs
Music is Love, Music is Politics
Christopher Brauchli
Prisoners as Captive Customers
Robert Koehler
The Mosque That Disappeared
Franklin Lamb
Update from Madaya
Dan Bacher
Federal Scientists Find Delta Tunnels Plan Will Devastate Salmon
Barbara Nimri Aziz
The Gig Economy: Which Side Are You On?
Louis Proyect
What Caused the Holodomor?
Max Mastellone
Seeking Left Unity Through a Definition of Progressivism
Charles R. Larson
Review: David Bellos’s “Novel of the Century: the Extraordinary Adventure of Les Misérables”
David Yearsley
Ear of Darkness: the Soundtracks of Steve Bannon’s Films
FacebookTwitterGoogle+RedditEmail