FacebookTwitterGoogle+RedditEmail

Who Killed Rafik Hariri?

by MANUEL GARCÍA, Jr.

I do not know, what follows is speculation.

Consider this hypothesis: Rafik Hariri was declared a “collaborator” by the Iraqi Sunni Insurgency, who killed him.

Who stands to gain?, and why?

1. Israel: because it increases US pressure on Syria, and could lead to a weakening of Hizbollah (1) (Jansen, Jordan Times, 17 Feb.),

2. U.S.A.: provides an opportunity to push ahead with the neo-con Middle East Campaign, by increasing pressure on Syria, which the US accuses of aiding the Iraqi (Sunni) Insurgency (3) (Fisk, 16 Feb.)

3. al-Qaeda: striking at a Saudi-linked political power — Hariri had dual Lebanese-Saudi citizenship — with close ties to the West (France) and who was opposed to Hizbollah attacks on Israel (2) (Fisk, 15 Feb.), (5) (Juan Cole 14 & 16 Feb.)

4. Iraqi Sunni Insurgency: to draw Syria further into the Insurgent struggle against the U.S.A. — and Shi’ite electoral power — for the control of Iraq.

A map readily shows how easily one could build pipelines from Iraq through Syria and then Lebanon to the Mediterranean. A shortcut. This natural route is also one we could expect the Insurgent groups tied to the former Saddam Hussein regime (probably the officer corps and the intelligence service) to withdraw along. In Damascus, there must be banks for secreted funds, and refuges in which to regroup, plan, and store munitions. That much Iraqi wealth flowed along this channel in the past only reinforces this logic, which is the basis of US accusations against Syria regarding the Iraqi resistance.

The clarity of this logic would be evident to the Syrians from the start, who would no doubt insist that their Iraqi Insurgent allies not tarry in Syria, so the Washington cops don’t finger Syria as an accomplice. So, hide out in Lebanon.

Think of this exile population, accustomed to power, still possessing wealth, munitions, intelligence capabilities and some connections, as similar in many ways to the anti-Castro Cubans in Miami. Their focus becomes to subvert the power of the government granting them asylum (or cover, perhaps with some blackmail), so as to bring it to bear against their enemies in the homeland. An Iraqi Sunni Insurgency gains if Syria faces the same attack from the U.S. In killing Rafik Hariri, this (hypothetical) exile Insurgency does Syria a “favor” it really doesn’t need, and whose consequences might force Syria to join in the Insurgency, widening the war dramatically.

This hypothesis is like the plot of the Alfred Hitchcock film “Strangers On A Train,” in which two men trade murders — initially in jest — so as to free themselves of burdensome restrictions without either being implicated in crime. In the film, one fellow played by Robert Walker actually commits the murder-as-favor he promised, and the second man, played by Farley Granger, is drawn into a perilous struggle to break the blood-bond of murder conspiracy he finds himself in. Syria may be in a similar spot, entrapped by the exile Insurgency and under tightening suspicion by the world’s Top Cop.

There may be no way out for Syria however they respond to the exile Insurgency and the Hariri assassination. The difficulty for them may be that in this case the interests of the U.S., Israel, al Qaeda and the Iraqi Sunni Insurgency all coincide.

Manuel Garcia, Jr. can be reached at: mango@idiom.com

References

[1] Michael Jansen, “Who Stands to Gain from Hariri’s Death?,” The Jordan Times, 17 Feb. 2005,

[2] Robert Fisk, “The Killing Of Mister Lebanon,” 15 Feb. 2005,

[3] Robert Fisk, “The Blame For Hariri Hit Falls On Syria,” 16 Feb. 2005,

[4] Robert Fisk, “In Death, Hariri Unites The Lebanese,” 17 Feb. 2005,

[5] Juan Cole, comments of 14 & 16 Feb. 2005

Manuel Garcia, Jr, once a physicist, is now a lazy househusband who writes out his analyses of physical or societal problems or interactions. He can be reached at mangogarcia@att.net

More articles by:
Weekend Edition
May 27, 2016
Friday - Sunday
John Pilger
Silencing America as It Prepares for War
Rob Urie
By the Numbers: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are Fringe Candidates
Paul Street
Feel the Hate
Daniel Raventós - Julie Wark
Basic Income Gathers Steam Across Europe
Andrew Levine
Hillary’s Gun Gambit
Jeffrey St. Clair
Hand Jobs: Heidegger, Hitler and Trump
S. Brian Willson
Remembering All the Deaths From All of Our Wars
Dave Lindorff
With Clinton’s Nixonian Email Scandal Deepening, Sanders Must Demand Answers
Pete Dolack
Millions for the Boss, Cuts for You!
Peter Lee
To Hell and Back: Hiroshima and Nagasaki
Gunnar Westberg
Close Calls: We Were Much Closer to Nuclear Annihilation Than We Ever Knew
Karl Grossman
Long Island as a Nuclear Park
Binoy Kampmark
Sweden’s Assange Problem: The District Court Ruling
Robert Fisk
Why the US Dropped Its Demand That Assad Must Go
Martha Rosenberg – Ronnie Cummins
Bayer and Monsanto: a Marriage Made in Hell
Brian Cloughley
Pivoting to War
Stavros Mavroudeas
Blatant Hypocrisy: the Latest Late-Night Bailout of Greece
Arun Gupta
A War of All Against All
Dan Kovalik
NPR, Yemen & the Downplaying of U.S. War Crimes
Randy Blazak
Thugs, Bullies, and Donald J. Trump: The Perils of Wounded Masculinity
Murray Dobbin
Are We Witnessing the Beginning of the End of Globalization?
Daniel Falcone
Urban Injustice: How Ghettos Happen, an Interview with David Hilfiker
Gloria Jimenez
In Honduras, USAID Was in Bed with Berta Cáceres’ Accused Killers
Kent Paterson
The Old Braceros Fight On
Lawrence Reichard
The Seemingly Endless Indignities of Air Travel: Report from the Losing Side of Class Warfare
Peter Berllios
Bernie and Utopia
Stan Cox – Paul Cox
Indonesia’s Unnatural Mud Disaster Turns Ten
Linda Pentz Gunter
Obama in Hiroshima: Time to Say “Sorry” and “Ban the Bomb”
George Souvlis
How the West Came to Rule: an Interview with Alexander Anievas
Julian Vigo
The Government and Your i-Phone: the Latest Threat to Privacy
Stratos Ramoglou
Why the Greek Economic Crisis Won’t be Ending Anytime Soon
David Price
The 2016 Tour of California: Notes on a Big Pharma Bike Race
Dmitry Mickiewicz
Barbarous Deforestation in Western Ukraine
Rev. William Alberts
The United Methodist Church Up to Its Old Trick: Kicking the Can of Real Inclusion Down the Road
Patrick Bond
Imperialism’s Junior Partners
Mark Hand
The Trouble with Fracking Fiction
Priti Gulati Cox
Broken Green: Two Years of Modi
Marc Levy
Sitrep: Hometown Unwelcomes Vietnam Vets
Lorenzo Raymond
Why Nonviolent Civil Resistance Doesn’t Work (Unless You Have Lots of Bombs)
Ed Kemmick
New Book Full of Amazing Montana Women
Michael Dickinson
Bye Bye Legal High in Backwards Britain
Missy Comley Beattie
Wanted: Daddy or Mommy in Chief
Ed Meek
The Republic of Fear
Charles R. Larson
Russian Women, Then and Now
David Yearsley
Elgar’s Hegemony: the Pomp of Empire
FacebookTwitterGoogle+RedditEmail